Ireland’s Housing Led Approach to Homelessness: The Way Home or a Path to Nowhere?
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Ireland’s Housing Led Approach to Homelessness: The Way Home or a Path to Nowhere?

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    Ireland’s Housing Led Approach to Homelessness: The Way Home or a Path to Nowhere? Ireland’s Housing Led Approach to Homelessness: The Way Home or a Path to Nowhere? Presentation Transcript

    • EUROPEAN RESEARCH CONFERENCE Housing First. What’s Second? Berlin, 20th September 2013 Ireland’s Housing-led Approach to Homelessness: The way home or path to nowhere? Dr. Dáithí Downey, Deputy Director, Head of Policy and Service Delivery, Dublin Region Homeless Executive.
    • EUROPEAN RESEARCH CONFERENCE Housing First. What’s Second? Berlin, 20th September 2013 Ireland’s ‘housing-led’ homeless policy turn February 2013 What’s next… 1. At local level?  Dublin’s Housing First Demonstration Project within the context of housing-led policy turn 2. At national level?  Ireland’s omni-crisis and the great Irish housing disaster  Challenges,opportunities, prospects
    • EUROPEAN RESEARCH CONFERENCE Housing First. What’s Second? Berlin, 20th September 2013 The 2013 policy turn…  Housing-led approach to effective resolution of homelessness:  Cost-effectiveness: “betteruse of scarce resources” to move away from emergency and shelter type accommodation  Recognitionof lack of provision and access to “adequate, sustainable and affordable housing” as a “root cause of homelessness”  Housing and Support(s) required to meet “individual needs”  Variety of supports: health; social welfare;employment; justice; educationand training.
    • EUROPEAN RESEARCH CONFERENCE Housing First. What’s Second? Berlin, 20th September 2013 The 2013 policy turn…  Commitment to end long-term homelessness by 2016  Regional arrangements for policy implementation  Protocol between central government (DECLG) and local authorities  Delegationof revenue budgets to lead local authority in each region (Section 10, 1988 Housing Act)  Reporting and monitoring  Finance and expenditure (monthly & quarterly)  Service delivery and performance (quarterly)
    • EUROPEAN RESEARCH CONFERENCE Housing First. What’s Second? Berlin, 20th September 2013 What’s next at local level?  Development of service provision in each regional area  PASS - client management system; national roll-out led by DRHE willbe completed in 2103  National Quality Standards for Homeless Services  Standard framework for all service types under housing-led approach  Service standards (including participation & voice mechanisms; governance; funding; performance; monitoring  Project development in 2013 led by DRHE
    • EUROPEAN RESEARCH CONFERENCE Housing First. What’s Second? Berlin, 20th September 2013 Dublin Housing First Demonstration Project  Housing First Europe (Peer City)  Established 2011/12;  Successes:  Consolidation in 2013: new legal entity;  Board of Directors; Advisory Group; Team Leader; Evaluation; Housing team; Support team (ICM akin to NYC, USA)  Establishment of service structure and teams; tenancies established and maintained  Challenges  Widening intake beyond rough sleepers (minor)  Access to accommodation (major):  Attitudes to client group in market and among social housing providers;  Cost and availability (location, size, facilities; congregate and scattered site) Homeless Shelter placement Transitional housing Permanent housing Ongoing, flexible supports
    • EUROPEAN RESEARCH CONFERENCE Housing First. What’s Second? Berlin, 20th September 2013 What’s next for Housing First at national level?  Dublin’s Housing First model requires more formal integration under revised Irish homeless policy.  Not yet achieved. Housing First remains undefined in policy  Results of Dublin Demonstration Project are nascent but compelling.  Growing realisation that adopting a housing-led approach to the resolution of homelessness in Ireland will require:  Resolutionof the deficits of Irish housing policy  Greaterrecognition that housing is at the centre of Ireland’s omni-crisis
    • EUROPEAN RESEARCH CONFERENCE Housing First. What’s Second? Berlin, 20th September 2013 Ireland’s omni-crisis  Economic  Banking  Financial  Social  Reputational  Causation? Manifold…key process of urbanisation and the urban growth model (esp. second era of the Celtic Tiger economy 2000 – 2008)  Pro-cyclical fiscal and housing policy;  Light-touch (absent) regulation(housing finance);  Facilitativeplanning and development;  ‘positivebusiness environment’.
    • EUROPEAN RESEARCH CONFERENCE Housing First. What’s Second? Berlin, 20th September 2013 The ‘financialisation’ of Irish housing Process  Global capital flows switchinginto Irish urbanisation: asset bubble and speculative development  The global credit cycle and EZ monetary policy  ‘Financial deepening’ of Irish homeowners(equity release)  Predatory and fraudulent lending Financialisation effects…  Negative impact on access to housing for lower-income and excluded households  Changed inter-tenure relationships  The ‘locked in’; the ‘squeezed out’ and the ‘left behind’  Mortgage debt crisis: transition from forbearance to foreclosure  Worsening housing security
    • EUROPEAN RESEARCH CONFERENCE Housing First. What’s Second? Berlin, 20th September 2013 Capital switching and Irish housing, 1975-2008 Source: Data compiled from DECLG Housing Statistics, various years 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 % Capital formation in housing as a percentage of gross domestic fixed capital formation Capital formation in housing as a percentage of gross national product (GNP)
    • EUROPEAN RESEARCH CONFERENCE Housing First. What’s Second? Berlin, 20th September 2013 Euro area credit growth Jan 1983 - Mar 2012 (€m) Source: Data compiled from European Central Bank (ECB) Statistical Data Warehouse 0 2000000 4000000 6000000 8000000 10000000 12000000 14000000 16000000 1983Jan 1983Jul 1984Jan 1984Jul 1985Jan 1985Jul 1986Jan 1986Jul 1987Jan 1987Jul 1988Jan 1988Jul 1989Jan 1989Jul 1990Jan 1990Jul 1991Jan 1991Jul 1992Jan 1992Jul 1993Jan 1993Jul 1994Jan 1994Jul 1995Jan 1995Jul 1996Jan 1996Jul 1997Jan 1997Jul 1998Jan 1998Jul 1999Jan 1999Jul 2000Jan 2000Jul 2001Jan 2001Jul 2002Jan 2002Jul 2003Jan 2003Jul 2004Jan 2004Jul 2005Jan 2005Jul 2006Jan 2006Jul 2007Jan 2007Jul 2008Jan 2008Jul 2009Jan 2009Jul 2010Jan 2010Jul 2011Jan 2011Jul 2012Jan 2012Jul Loans and securities (credit), total maturity, all currencies combined [Millions of Euro] Loans, total maturity, all currencies combined [Millions of Euro]
    • EUROPEAN RESEARCH CONFERENCE Housing First. What’s Second? Berlin, 20th September 2013 (1) Share of Irish pension funds' assets allocated to property, 2000-2007 (Source: Adapted from Christophers (2011); Irish Association of Pension Funds (note shares are for the start of each year) (2) Total annual capital formation in Irish housing, 1975-2008 €m (Source: Data compiled from CSO and DECLG Housing Statistics Database) 5 7,1 9,2 10,1 8,7 7,4 8 9 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 % 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 18000 20000 Capital Formation in Social Housing Capital Formation in Private Housing
    • EUROPEAN RESEARCH CONFERENCE Housing First. What’s Second? Berlin, 20th September 2013 (1) Trends in Irish housing output by housing tenure, 1970-2008 (2) Trends in regional Irish house price inflation, 1970-2012, € 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 80000 90000 100000 Local authority housing Voluntary and co-operative housing Private housing 0 100 000 200 000 300 000 400 000 500 000 Dub 2Hd Dub N Nat 2Hnd Cork 2Hd Gal 2Hd Cork N Nat N Gal N W'ford N W'ford 2Hd L'rick N L'rick 2Hd
    • EUROPEAN RESEARCH CONFERENCE Housing First. What’s Second? Berlin, 20th September 2013 (1) Growthin Irish household liabilities, €m, 2003-2012; (2) Household liabilities and leverage ratios (IE and EU average) - 20 000 40 000 60 000 80 000 100 000 120 000 140 000 160 000 180 000 Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Loans for House Purchase Consumer Credit Other loans
    • EUROPEAN RESEARCH CONFERENCE Housing First. What’s Second? Berlin, 20th September 2013 Post-crash credit crunch: annual percentage change in credit advanced to households in the euro area, 2004-2012 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 Other Loans House Purchase EZ sovereign debt crisis (P/IE/IT/GR/CYP/EP) EZ credit bubble peak for housing finance
    • EUROPEAN RESEARCH CONFERENCE Housing First. What’s Second? Berlin, 20th September 2013 Ireland's housing boom, bust & crash cycle in comparison with other advanced economies, 2005-2012 Source: Data compiled from Bank of International Settlements (BIS) Property Price Statistics. 60,0 70,0 80,0 90,0 100,0 110,0 120,0 130,0 140,0 01.03.2005 01.05.2005 01.07.2005 01.09.2005 01.11.2005 01.01.2006 01.03.2006 01.05.2006 01.07.2006 01.09.2006 01.11.2006 01.01.2007 01.03.2007 01.05.2007 01.07.2007 01.09.2007 01.11.2007 01.01.2008 01.03.2008 01.05.2008 01.07.2008 01.09.2008 01.11.2008 01.01.2009 01.03.2009 01.05.2009 01.07.2009 01.09.2009 01.11.2009 01.01.2010 01.03.2010 01.05.2010 01.07.2010 01.09.2010 01.11.2010 01.01.2011 01.03.2011 01.05.2011 01.07.2011 01.09.2011 01.11.2011 01.01.2012 01.03.2012 01.05.2012 USA Netherlands Ireland Spain UK
    • EUROPEAN RESEARCH CONFERENCE Housing First. What’s Second? Berlin, 20th September 2013 The ‘locked in’ homeowners… Negative equity  Decline in values of 50 % (2007-12) locked 240,000 households into a negative equity positiontotalling €25 billion (Irish Central Bank, 2012)  Reduces labour market mobility (debt trap)  Restricts housing market recovery to new entrants or those not in negative equity  Eliminates ‘wealth effect’ of homeownership  Reduces debt-based domesticdemand Mortgage arrears @ March 2013  I in 7 Irish mortgagesin arrears of €3.04 billion  12 % of value of balance outstanding of all Irish mortgages. Significant & growing impairment on banks balance sheet  95,554 (12.3%) households in arrears >90 days on principal dwelling house (PDH)  29,369 (19.7%) of Buy To Let (BTL) in arrears >90 days
    • EUROPEAN RESEARCH CONFERENCE Housing First. What’s Second? Berlin, 20th September 2013 The inter-tenure transfer of demand to rental housing Boom to Bust  Boom: aspirant homeowners transferred their housing need to private rental due to inabilityto access private housing in preferred location (Downey, 1998, 2008; Drudy and Punch, 2005)  Bust: distressed homeowners renting out housing in prime rental locations and down- sizing and/ or moving to less preferred locations (or back to their parents!) (Downey, forthcoming) Results  Greater relianceon private rental market and deeper segmentation between residential enclaves of corporate and professional components and lower income households  Demand ‘transfer’ process impacts disproportionally to squeeze lower-income& welfare dependent households out of good quality housing in inner urban and suburban locations
    • EUROPEAN RESEARCH CONFERENCE Housing First. What’s Second? Berlin, 20th September 2013 The ‘squeezed out’ low-income renters… Percentage difference between maximum rent subvention rates and rents in Dublin city for selected rental dwelling types, 2005- 2007 Source: Downey, 2008 Income inadequacy and rents  Key issue here is relationship between income inadequacy, market rents and income maintenance (rent supplementation)for low income households  2005: 60,200 households in receipt of rental subsidy (€369m)  2010: 96,800 households (€516m)  40 percent (!) of Irish private rental sector Widening gap between rents & income
    • EUROPEAN RESEARCH CONFERENCE Housing First. What’s Second? Berlin, 20th September 2013 Changes in Irish residential property prices and private rents, 2003-2012 Source: CSO (2012c) RPPI and CPI 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 2003M 01 2003M 08 2004M 08 2005M 08 2006M 08 2007M 08 2008M 08 2009M 08 2010M 08 2011M 08 Aug-12 Private Rents Consumer Price Index (Base Dec 2006=100) Residential Property Price Index (Base Jan 2005 = 100) Rent stops declining in 2009
    • EUROPEAN RESEARCH CONFERENCE Housing First. What’s Second? Berlin, 20th September 2013 The ‘left behind’ unmet housing need…  Unmet housing need (households in need of housing support, which cannot be accommodated through the existingstock available to local housing authorities)  2008: 56,249 households  2011: 98,318 households (75 percent increase)  Two thirds (66.8 percent) ‘unable to meet the cost of accommodation’  Homelessness:  March 2011: 2,348 households (1,089 in Dublin) (DECLG/ Housing Agency)  April 2011: 3,808 households (2,375 in Dublin) (CSO, Census 2011)  Sept 2011 (reviseddata): 1,981 households in Dublin (DRHE and HA  2013 housing needs assessment underway now
    • EUROPEAN RESEARCH CONFERENCE Housing First. What’s Second? Berlin, 20th September 2013 Challenges? Dealing with the increased risk and uncertainty of financialisation of Irish housing system  The financialisation of home was neverdesigned to enable homeownership: it was first and foremost designed to fuel the economy  This required the expansion of the mortgage market through wider access to mortgage loans that in turn resulted in higher house prices  However, access to mortgage finance does not equal affordability.  Therefore the result of the expansion of mortgage finance ‘is not improved access to homeownership but an increase in risk and uncertainty’ (See Aalbers, 2008).  Financialisation effects: multi-dimensional  Social; Social-Psychological; Health; Administration;Financial; Political; Organisational.
    • EUROPEAN RESEARCH CONFERENCE Housing First. What’s Second? Berlin, 20th September 2013 What’s next in 2013?  Next stage in the financialisation process  Installation regime of ‘accumulation by dispossession’ across Irish economy (EU/ECB/IMF troika programme of privatisation and marketisation)  2013: ‘end of the beginning’ of the Irish housing crisis  Forbearance turns to foreclosure  ‘accumulation by repossession’  Unmet housing needs: strengthen, deepen, broaden  Structural routes into housing exclusion and homelessness increasingly prevalent  Fiscal crisis of the Irish state and austerity impacts  Reductions in expenditure on homeless services in 2013/14 and on critical public services  ‘Crisis management’ continues to dominate homeless service responses and development. Mitigate implementation of the 2013 policy turn?
    • EUROPEAN RESEARCH CONFERENCE Housing First. What’s Second? Berlin, 20th September 2013 What’s required? Revision of housing policy  Irish housing-led approach is under-developed & insufficient. Needs to be urgently rectified:  Greaterhousing choice: general needs affordable rental  Access to housing: residual income affordabilityof housing needs to be resolved  Labour market relationships: creating work and making work pay  Greatercoherence with other policy spheres: joined-up especially withHealth, Welfare and Justice  Government needs to re-think and act on housing  Restructure and regulate the housing market for a sustainable housing system as a central element of national strategies for economic recovery from 2013
    • EUROPEAN RESEARCH CONFERENCE Housing First. What’s Second? Berlin, 20th September 2013 DR. DÁITHÍ DOWNEY DRHE, DUBLIN, IRELAND DAITHI.DOWNEY@DUBLINCITY.IE WWW.HOMELESSSDUBLIN.IE Thank you