Historical & Recent Climate Trends in Missouri

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Dr. Pat Guinan presented "Historical & Recent Climate Trends in Missouri" during the 2011 Marketing Seminars held throughout Missouri. FCS Financial hosted all of the seminars.

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Historical & Recent Climate Trends in Missouri

  1. 1. Historical and Recent Climate Trends in Missouri & Weather Resources Pat Guinan Extension/State ClimatologistFCS Financial SeminarsFebruary 17-25, 2011
  2. 2. U.S. National Weather Service Cooperative Weather Station Network“The Backbone of the Nation’s Climate Records”
  3. 3. NWS Cooperative Network in Missouri28 Pioneer Stations (still active)
  4. 4. What have been theannual temperaturetrends for Missouri?
  5. 5. Missouri Annual Average Temperature (1895-2010) 5 yr. running mean Long-term average: 54.6°F 1921 19311938 1954 1946 1904 1924 1917 Warm Period 19791895 Cool Period
  6. 6. What have been theseasonal temperature trends for Missouri?
  7. 7. Missouri Average Winter Temperature (Dec-Jan-Feb, 1895-2010*) *The winter of 2010 is defined as Dec 2009 and Jan, Feb 2010 5 yr. running mean Long-term average: 32.4°F 1931-32 ’99-00 ’91-92 ’97-98 ’01-021904-05 1917-18 1935-36 1977-78 1978-79 Warm Period 2009-10 winter was coldest in 28 years and Cool Period current 2010-11 winter is even colder!!
  8. 8. Missouri Average Spring Temperature (Mar-Apr-May, 1895-2010)Long-term average: 54.2°F 1977 1991 5 yr. running mean 1946 2007 1938 1947 1983 1924 1984 1960 Warm Period Cool Period
  9. 9. 2010 WAS HOTTEST SUMMER IN 30 YEARS FOR MISSOURI!! Missouri Average Summer Temperature (Jun-Jul-Aug, 1895-2010) 1934 1936 Long-term average: 75.6°F 1901 1954 1980 7th hottest 1927 1950 1992 2004 1915 Warm Period Cool Period
  10. 10. 2010 WAS ALSO AN UNCOMFORTABLE SUMMER… Average Summer Dewpoint Temperature (°F) for Columbia, MO Jun-Jul-Aug 2010 1993 1995 2010 1967 1975 1976
  11. 11. Columbia, MO Average Summer Maximum Temperature (Jun-Jul-Aug, 1895-2010)
  12. 12. Columbia, MO Average Summer Minimum Temperature (Jun-Jul-Aug, 1895-2010) 6th warmest
  13. 13. Columbia, MissouriNo. of Days When the Temperature Was ≥ 100°F (1890-2010) 1936 More triple-digit heat in 1936 than in the past 23 years in Columbia!! 1934 1901 1980 1954
  14. 14. Missouri Average Autumn Temperature (Sep-Oct-Nov, 1895-2010) 5 yr. running mean 1931 Long-term average: 56.5°F 1963 1938 1998 1971 1951 19961896 1993 Warm Period Cool Period 1976
  15. 15. What about recenttemperature trends for Missouri?
  16. 16. Missouri Monthly Temperature Departure From Average* (Jan 2004 – Jan 2011) 4th warmest 1st warmest March Warming up January in 2010 Easter Freeze 5th coolest summer Cool 2-yr period 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
  17. 17. What have been theannual precipitationtrends for Missouri?
  18. 18. Missouri Annual Average Precipitation (1895-2010) Long-term average: 41.12” 5 yr. running mean 2008 1927 1927-29 total: 1973 19931898 148.68 in. (+25.32”) #1 #8 1963 1980 19761901 2008-10 total: Wet Period 1953 Dry Period 153.30 in. (+29.94”)
  19. 19. What have been theseasonal precipitation trends for Missouri?
  20. 20. Missouri Average Winter Precipitation (Dec-Jan-Feb, 1895-2010*) *The winter of 2010 is defined as Dec 2009 and Jan, Feb 2010Long-term average: 6.58” 5 yr. running mean 1949-50 1915-16 1948-49 1984-85 1936-37 1963-64 1975-76 1969-70 1919-20 1962-63 Wet Period Dry Period
  21. 21. Missouri Average Spring Precipitation (Mar-Apr-May, 1895-2010) 5 yr. running mean Long-term average: 12.12” 1927 1973 1945 20081898 1930 1971 1932 1934 1936 Wet Period Dry Period
  22. 22. Missouri Average Summer Precipitation (Jun-Jul-Aug, 1895-2010) 5 yr. running mean Long-term average: 12.19” 1915 1928 1951 1981 19931901 1913 1983 1953 Wet Period 1936 Dry Period
  23. 23. Missouri Average Autumn Precipitation (Sep-Oct-Nov, 1895-2010) 5 yr. running mean Long-term average: 10.23” 1941 1993 1926 1984 1986 1904 19501897 19531956 Wet Period Dry Period
  24. 24. Have precipitation eventsbecome more frequent in Missouri?
  25. 25. Number of Daily Rainfall Events ≥ 0.01 in Missouri 1895-2009 10 yr. running mean 1951 1973 1993 1945 2008 1936 1953 1963 1988 1976
  26. 26. What are trends of heavy and extremeprecipitation events in Missouri?
  27. 27. Number of Daily Rainfall Events ≥ 1 inch in Missouri 1895-2009 10 yr. running mean 1895-1952: 17,331 events 2008 1927 1953-2009: 17,505 events 1973 19851993 Average: 303 events 2009 Data Source: Midwestern Regional Climate Center
  28. 28. 10.22” 12.25” 7/10/1922 7/10/1922 6.55” 7.67” All-time 24-hour 7/7/1898 7/25/2008 5.80” 7/29/1910 precipitation records (inches) No. of 6.60” 18.18” Decade Records 9/13/19617/20/1965 6.17” 7.34” 9/14/1998 5.87” 6/20/1928 1895-99 4 4/21/1973 6.61” 1900-09 1 5.37” 9/2/1918 8/12/1993 6.21” 1910-19 2 8.82” 8.78” 6.52” 10/18/1905 1920-29 4 9/12/1977 9.00” 8/16/1946 11/16/1928 7.50” 6/29/1957 1930-39 0 12/20/1895 1940-49 1 1950-59 1 9.10” 1960-69 1 10/3/1986 7.90” 1970-79 4 10.65” 7/26/1998 1980-89 2 4/11/1994 6.60” 1/2/1897 1990-99 4 9.10” 8.24” 2000-09 4 7/3/1976 6.27” 3/19/2008 9.21” 11/24/1987 3/19/2008 7.00” 12/16/1895 Half have 11.38” occurred 9/23/2006 since the 6.78” 1970’s 7/4/1976
  29. 29. St. Louis, Missouri Annual Precipitation (in.) (1837-2010) Unofficial: 1837-1869 Official: 1870-2010 18581848 1859 10 yr. running mean 2008 1982 1940 1871 1930 1976 Wet Period 1953 Dry Period Year
  30. 30. What about recentprecipitation trends for Missouri?
  31. 31. Missouri Monthly Precipitation Departure From Average* (Jan 2004 – Jan 2011) 1st Wettest Year on Record 8th Wettest Year on Record 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
  32. 32. Total Precipitation Departure from Mean in inches Jan 2008 to Dec 2010Highest above normaldepartures in theUnited States!!
  33. 33. Departure from Normal Precipitation (in) Jan 1, 2010 to Dec 31, 2010Extremewetness toExtremedrought
  34. 34. Missouri Climate Trends Summary•Missouri’s most recent warm annual temperature trend began in1998; 10 out of the past 13 years have been above normal. The1930’s ranks as the warmest decade on record for Missouri.•Seasonally, Missouri winters have experienced the greatestwarming trend (15 out of the past 22 winters (~ 68%) have beenabove normal and 4 out of the 5 warmest winters on record haveoccurred since 1991).•Following winter, the biggest seasonal warming trend in Missourihas been during the spring period (Mar-Apr-May); there havebeen only two cooler than normal springs since 1998.•The median last spring frost date in Missouri has occurred about 2-7days earlier over the past 30 years compared to the long-term average.
  35. 35. Missouri Climate Trends Summary•Recent temperature trend signals during the summer andautumn have been weak. Missouri has not witnessed anexceptionally hot summer in 30 years.•The median first fall frost date in Missouri has varied little over the past30 years compared to the long-term average.•Beginning in the early 1980’s, and since 1895, an unprecedentedwet period has evolved in Missouri. Since 1981, 20 out of 30years (~67%) have had above normal precipitation.•Over the past few decades, all 4 seasons have witnessed moreabove normal precipitation years in Missouri; most notably inwinter where 20 out the past 29 winters recorded above normalprecipitation (~69%).
  36. 36. Missouri Climate Trends Summary•Since 1970, 68% of the years, or 27 out of 40 years, have experiencedan above normal number of days with measurable precipitation events(≥ 0.01”) in Missouri compared to the long-term average.•Over the past few decades, Missouri has witnessed an abovenormal trend in heavy (≥ 1”) and extreme (≥ 3”) precipitation eventscompared to the long-term average.• 28 pioneer weather stations have been reporting daily precipitationfor 115 years, or since 1895; half of these stations have broken all-time 24-hour precipitation records since 1973 (over the past 37 years).
  37. 37. www.climate.missouri.edu
  38. 38. Extension Commercial AgricultureAutomated Weather Station Network Real-time (Updates every 5 minutes) One new station added in 2010 for a total of 30 in the network. agebb.missouri.edu/weather/stations/index.htm
  39. 39. www.cocorahs.org
  40. 40. CoCoRaHS MissouriJan 2011 277/dayDec 2010 280/dayNov 2010 297/dayOct 2010 294/daySep 2010 297/dayAug 2010 290/day www.cocorahs.org
  41. 41. September 2, 2010 8.22 6.99 7.59 7.96 10.21 7.93 6.60 8.00 2.01 2.014.58 6.93 6.00 5.85 4.52 6.30 MO-CR-40
  42. 42. 0.14 1.290.75 0.84 December 31, 2010
  43. 43. CoCoRaHS Impacts and Application:The CoCoRaHS network has been operational in Missouri foralmost 5 years and has been a valuable resource. Currently,nearly 300 observers report daily in Missouri and all 114counties in the state have at least one observer. Outcomesassociated with having a viable, online real-time network ofprecipitation observing in Missouri include: •Drought Assessment •Flash Flood Assessment •Preventive Planting policies •River Forecast Centers- model application •Lagoon Management
  44. 44. MissouriWeatherUpdate
  45. 45. Departure From Normal Temperature (°F) December 1, 2010 to February 12, 2011 Midwestern Regional Climate Center
  46. 46. Total Snowfall (inches) December 1, 2010 to February 14, 2011 COLUMBIA, MO Snowfall (in.) Years: 1890-2011 1) 54.9 1978 2) 46.2 1912 3) 44.0 196035-45 in. 4) 43.0 2011* 5) 40.8 1906 25-35 in. 6) 40.4 1979 7) 38.1 1974 15-25 in. 8) 38.1 1900 9) 36.6 1905 5-15 in. 10) 35.0 1977
  47. 47. Climate Prediction Center 6-10 day temperature outlookIssued: Feb 13, 2011Valid: Feb 19-23, 2011 http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/
  48. 48. Climate Prediction Center 6-10 day precipitation outlookIssued: Feb 13, 2011Valid: Feb 19-23, 2011 http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/
  49. 49. Moderate to Strong La Niñacontinues…
  50. 50. Typical Winter Weather Anomalies and Atmospheric Circulation During Moderate to Strong La Niña
  51. 51. Temperature Outlook for Feb-Mar-AprIssued: Jan 20, 2011Climate Prediction Center
  52. 52. Precipitation Outlook for Feb-Mar-AprIssued: Jan 20, 2011Climate Prediction Center
  53. 53. Weather Resources on the Internet agebb.missouri.edu/weather/wealinks.htmRiver Information Resources for Missouri agebb.missouri.edu/weather/river.htm

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