Dr. Martin Shields Regional Economic Update
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Dr. Martin Shields Regional Economic Update



Martin Shield's Economic update from FCBR's January 2012 Membership meeting.

Martin Shield's Economic update from FCBR's January 2012 Membership meeting.



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    Dr. Martin Shields Regional Economic Update Dr. Martin Shields Regional Economic Update Presentation Transcript

    • Jobs Jobs Jobs Jobs Jobs Jobs Professor Martin ShieldsRegional Economics InstituteRegional Economics Institute Colorado State University
    • SummaryJobs Jobs Jobs Jobs Jobs Jobs Jobs Jobs Jobs JobsJobs Jobs Jobs Jobs Jobs Jobs Jobs Jobs Jobs JobsJobs Jobs Jobs Jobs Jobs Jobs Jobs Jobs Jobs JobsJobs Jobs Jobs Jobs Jobs Jobs Jobs Jobs Jobs JobsJobs Jobs Jobs Jobs Jobs Jobs Jobs Jobs Jobs JobsJobs Jobs Jobs Jobs Jobs Jobs Jobs Jobs Jobs JobsJobs Jobs Jobs Jobs Jobs Jobs Jobs Jobs Jobs JobsJobs Jobs Jobs Jobs Jobs Jobs Jobs Jobs Jobs JobsJ b J b J b J b J b J b J b J b J b J bJobs Jobs Jobs Jobs Jobs Jobs Jobs Jobs Jobs Jobs
    • The Situation The Situation• Larimer County has 1,400 fewer jobs than it did 3  a e Cou ty as , 00 e e jobs t a t d d 3 years ago – Over the past 12 months it has added 1,800 • The number of unemployed in the region has  increased by nearly 3,600 since October 2008 – Larimer County and the City of Fort Collins employ  about 3,800 workers • Larimer County has experienced a 11 percent Larimer County has experienced a 11 percent  drop in real median household income over the  p past 10 years y
    • Larimer Employment Totals 99 Percent  of Pre‐Recessionary Levels f l102%100% 98% 96% United States 94% Great Recession Larimer County 92% 90% 88% Jan‐07 Sep‐07 Jan‐08 Sep‐08 Jan‐09 Sep‐09 Jan‐10 Sep‐10 Jan‐11 Sep‐11 May‐07 May‐08 May‐09 May‐10 May‐11 M M M M M S S S S SSource: Current Employment Survey
    • The Number of People Out of Work  Remains Incredibly High  d bl h 16,000 14,000 ployed 12,000 r of Unemp 10,000 8,000 6,000 6 000 Number 4,000 2,000 0 Apr‐06 Jan‐01 Aug‐01 Mar‐02 May‐03 Dec‐03 Jul‐04 Feb‐05 Sep‐05 Nov‐06 Jun‐07 Jan‐08 Aug‐08 Mar‐09 May‐10 Dec‐10 Jul‐11 Oct‐02 Oct‐09 J J O O M M A M M D D ASource: Bureau of Labor Statistics/LAUS A
    • Med dian Weeks s Unemploy yed (US) 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 J Jul‐87 Dec‐88 May‐90 O Oct‐91 M Mar‐93 Aug‐94Source: Current Population Survey an‐96 Ja Ju un‐97 Nov‐98 A Apr‐00 Se ep‐01 Fe eb‐03 J Jul‐04 Dec‐05 May‐07 O Oct‐08 M Mar‐10 Aug‐11 Nationally, Median Unemployment  h Duration Remains Near 45 year High 
    • Th housands o of Jobs 115.0 120.0 125.0 130.0 135.0 140.0 Jan‐0 01 Aug‐0 01 Mar‐0 02 b b l Oct‐0 02 May‐0 03 Dec‐0 03Source: Current Employment Survey Jul‐0 04 Feb‐0 05 Sep‐0 05 Apr‐0 06 l Nov‐0 06 Jun‐0 07 Jan‐0 08 Aug‐0 08 l Mar‐0 09 Oct‐0 09 May‐1 10 Dec‐1 10 Jobs below Potential Employment Jul‐1 11 The Jobs Gap: Larimer County 5,000 
    • Leading Growth Sectors  Health, Professional Services and Manufacturing Ambulatory Health Care Services Ambulatory Health Care Services 409 Administrative and Support Services 351 Hospitals 267 Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services 254 Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book, and Music Stores 226 Food Services and Drinking Places 188 Plastics and Rubber Products Manufacturing 167Computer and Electronic Product Manufacturing 145 Accommodation 114 Machinery Manufacturing 107
    • wned Housi Privately Ow ing Starts: 1‐Un nit Structur res 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 Ja an‐88 350 Ap pr‐89 Jul‐90Source: US Census Bureau Oct‐91 Ja an‐93 Ap pr‐94 Jul‐95 Oct‐96 kf an‐98 Ja Ap pr‐99 Jul‐00 Oct‐01 an‐03 Ja Ap pr‐04 Jul‐05 Oct‐06 l What About Housing Starts? an‐08 Ja Ap pr‐09 A Recent Uptick from a Low Place  Jul‐10 Oct‐11
    • Housing Prices Still Stagnant Housing Prices Still Stagnant 12 e in FHFA  10 use Price Indexes 8 ent Change 6 4 uarter Perce A‐Level Hou 2 0Four‐Qu MSA 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 ‐2 ‐4 4 Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency
    • Industry Watch Industry Watch• Poised to grow Poised to grow • Continued struggles Continued struggles – Energy – Government – Health care – Financial activities – Professional & business  – Information services
    • The Important Economic Issues The Important Economic Issues• The recovery will continue though at a The recovery will continue, though at a  lackluster pace – And will depend on national and international And will depend on national and international  events• Unemployment will remain relatively high Unemployment will remain relatively high – But well below the US average• F lli Falling real household income has had large  lh h ld i h h dl negative effects on the region
    • I HATE to do this…. I HATE to do this….• The region might add between 1 900 and The region might add between 1,900 and  2,300 jobs in 2012• The local unemployment rate could fall to near The local unemployment rate could fall to near  5 percent – B t th But the national rate will probably still be aroung 8 ti l t ill b bl till b 8  percent• B t th But the real challenge remains adding jobs  l h ll i ddi j b with good wages