The Swingfluentials Neal Gorenflo, Vice President, FAS.research, neal [email_address] ,415.867.0429 Case Study: How FAS.research helped The Green Party win swing voters through Swingfluentials.

The Challenge The Green Party of Vienna, Austria needed new a messaging & mobilization strategy to break out of their relatively small base of partisans (~10% of voters) into the mainstream Bring those disenfranchised by divisive politics back into the political process & raise the level of political discourse by introducing challenging progressive ideas to the mainstream in a way that they’d be considered & discussed by moderates The Green Party hired FAS as their lead research, message & strategy firm

The Green Party of Vienna, Austria needed new a messaging & mobilization strategy to break out of their relatively small base of partisans (~10% of voters) into the mainstream

Bring those disenfranchised by divisive politics back into the political process & raise the level of political discourse by introducing challenging progressive ideas to the mainstream in a way that they’d be considered & discussed by moderates

The Green Party hired FAS as their lead research, message & strategy firm

Two Types of Poli-fluentials, Only One Can Influence Swing Voters* Hub of large network Little disagreement on issues within group Partisan, reinforces messages Innovators, not mainstream Example: political blogger Swingfluential Large network, bridges groups High disagreement between groups on issues Moderate, translates messages Early majority, bridges into mainstream Typical Poli-fluential * Based on empirical data from 2007 Poli-fluentials Survey conducted together with IPDI

Hub of large network

Little disagreement on issues within group

Partisan, reinforces messages

Innovators, not mainstream

Example: political blogger

Large network, bridges groups

High disagreement between groups on issues

Moderate, translates messages

Early majority, bridges into mainstream

What is a Swingfluential? Moderate or agnostic With a large political discussion network People within their network do not agree on political issues 5% or less of voters, far fewer Swingfluentials than typical Poli-fluentials The most important segment to influence the 40% of voters who are moderates

Moderate or agnostic

With a large political discussion network

People within their network do not agree on political issues

5% or less of voters, far fewer Swingfluentials than typical Poli-fluentials

The most important segment to influence the 40% of voters who are moderates

Find Swingfluentials to Cross the Chasm into the Mainstream Mainstream Adoption Curve

How We Found Swingfluentials Surveyed 2,000 people in Vienna, asked about personal network size & level of agreement in their political discussion network Matched 2,000 to voter records & commercial data to create profile of influential swing voters Ran profile on entire electorate generating a master list of ALL swing voters & influential swing voters in Vienna Added GIS data to show the concentration of Swingfluentials & swing voters block-by-block

Surveyed 2,000 people in Vienna, asked about personal network size & level of agreement in their political discussion network

Matched 2,000 to voter records & commercial data to create profile of influential swing voters

Ran profile on entire electorate generating a master list of ALL swing voters & influential swing voters in Vienna

Added GIS data to show the concentration of Swingfluentials & swing voters block-by-block

Crime prevention Access to opportunity = + How We Messaged Swingfluentials Once we found the bridges across the chasm we created viral bridging messages that could make it across. Zero tolerance for the causes of crime The above framed a progressive idea about crime prevention through expanded opportunity in terms a Swingfluential could share with conservative friends. FAS invented an assembly line approach to creating viral bridging messages on an issue-by-issue basis.

Results Attracted 10% more voters than in the previous election, more in absolute terms that all other parties Netted three new seats (one Federal Councilor and two City Councilors) Won 26% of first-time voters, nearly double the party’s overall share of voters References from Green Party leaders available upon request

Attracted 10% more voters than in the previous election, more in absolute terms that all other parties

Netted three new seats (one Federal Councilor and two City Councilors)

Won 26% of first-time voters, nearly double the party’s overall share of voters

References from Green Party leaders available upon request

Notes on Swingfluentials The concept of the Swingfluentials was tested in the field in the Green Party’s 2005 Viennese Parliamentary campaign The existence of Swingfluentials was verified through IPDI’s Poli-fluential study released in 2007, though we referred to this unique group as “bridging hubs” in the report. FAS collaborated with IPDI in the survey design and report writing to uncover and document this group. See chapter 5 in IPDI’s “Poli-fluentials, The New Political Kingmakers,” for more information on Swingfluentials. The report is available for free in PDF form at IPDI.org The method of finding and messaging Swingfluentials outlined in this presentation is very high level - there is not enough detail to properly operationalize the strategy.

The concept of the Swingfluentials was tested in the field in the Green Party’s 2005 Viennese Parliamentary campaign

The existence of Swingfluentials was verified through IPDI’s Poli-fluential study released in 2007, though we referred to this unique group as “bridging hubs” in the report. FAS collaborated with IPDI in the survey design and report writing to uncover and document this group. See chapter 5 in IPDI’s “Poli-fluentials, The New Political Kingmakers,” for more information on Swingfluentials. The report is available for free in PDF form at IPDI.org

The method of finding and messaging Swingfluentials outlined in this presentation is very high level - there is not enough detail to properly operationalize the strategy.