Wheat for Africa: Potentials and Challenges for Harnessing Opportunities
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  • Briefly explain how SI’s interact, mutually reinforce ..Investment in 80s wheat/Africa was higherNot fully comprehensive overview – some N.Africa-related R4D projects missingSee major gaps: Little on wheat-based systems, nothing on precision agriculture (SI3), heat & drought etc.
  • -Wheat not yet dominant staple in SSA overall or any of its regions but …

Wheat for Africa: Potentials and Challenges for Harnessing Opportunities Wheat for Africa: Potentials and Challenges for Harnessing Opportunities Presentation Transcript

  • Wheat for Africa: Potentials and Challenges for Harnessing Opportunities Bekele Shiferaw, Jawoo Koo; Victor Kommerell, Wilfred Mwangi, Hans J Braun, Bekele Abeyo, Thomas Payne http://wheat.org/ CRP Wheat contact: Victor Kommerell, Program Manager: v.kommerell@cgiar.org Wheat for Africa study: Bekele Shiferaw b.shiferaw@cgiar.org Africa Agriculture Science Week 2013
  • Outline 1. Making the case for Wheat for Africa (W4A) • Context: CAADP-CGIAR dialogue, W4A Conference • Widening gap and challenges to food security 2. Can SS Africa produce some of its requirements to reduce dependence on imports? 3. How large is the potential and what are the key challenges? 4. What’s needed now: National/regional commitments & W4A investment options for international donors 5. Proposed entry points and call for action
  • Context: CAADP-CGIAR Dialogue  Dublin Process: Greater connectivity and focus between CAADP and the CGIAR Research Programs  Formulation of an African owned and led Science Agenda for African Agriculture  Seek joint funding for priority programs  CGIAR-CAADP MoU signed in Jan 2013  CAADP Partnership Platform W4A side event 25-26 March 2013 Aligning continental, national and international agricultural research for dev
  • The Case for W4A: African Researchers and Policymakers say Yes!  2006: Abuja Food Security Summit defines African strategic crops – but wheat not among them  Oct ‘11: CRP Wheat MC opts for regional stakeholder meeting in Africa in 2012  Ethiopian MoA/EIAR, AUC & CGIAR Centers behind CRP Wheat (CIMMYT, ICARDA, IFPRI) decide to go for Pan- African wheat science and policy conference  Oct ‘12: Wheat for Food Security in Africa Conference ends with Declaration: Wheat is a strategic crop for Africa!  End Nov ‘12: JMCAT (African Union Joint Ministerial Conference of MoA and Trade) endorses the Declaration  What next?
  • http://wheat.org
  • Wheat Production, demand and imports Region Total production million tons) Total consumpti on (million tons) Per capita production (kg/year) Per capita consump- tion (kg/ year) Quantity of import (million tons) Value of import (billion dollars) Wheat self- sufficiency (%) Eastern Africa 3.62 7.9 11.2 26.2 4.8 1.6 39.8 Central Africa 0.02 1.4 0.2 11.6 0.9 0.3 0.6 West Africa 0.09 5.9 0.3 19.6 5.4 1.8 1.2 Northern Africa 17.69 34.2 84.6 168.4 23 8 50.7 Southern Africa 1.83 3.5 31.6 62 1.6 0.6 57.5 SS Africa 5.55 20.4 6.9 24.9 12.7 4.8 29 Africa 23.24 52.9 22.8 53.8 35.7 12.3 40.2
  • Average annual total wheat demand growth rates (%) Region 1961- 1970 1971 - 1980 1981 - 1990 1991 - 2000 2001 - 2009 1961 - 2009 E&S Africa with RSA 5.12 3.19 3.34 3.76 5.79 4.19 E&S Africa without RSA 6.29 3.44 3.87 4.36 7.63 5.04 Western & Central Africa 9.44 11.45 -0.62 9.93 4.74 6.98 North Africa 3.60 6.08 3.45 1.29 2.20 3.34 Developing countries 5.34 5.28 3.09 2.74 1.37 3.57 Developed countries 4.01 1.21 1.79 -1.71 0.69 1.15 World 4.47 2.84 2.37 0.61 1.03 2.24
  • 40 50 60 70 80 90 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 East Africa -20 0 20 40 60 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Middle Africa 40 50 60 70 80 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 North Africa 50 100 150 200 250 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Southern Africa 0 5 10 15 20 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 West Africa 40 50 60 70 80 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Africa Source: Prepared by authors based on FAOSTAT database. for selected regions in Africa (1961-2010) Trends in wheat self-sufficiency ratio
  • 21.6 58.9 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Production Total demand Widening Gap: per capita production and demand for wheat in Africa (kg/year) Africa 6.9 36.9 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Production Total demand SS Africa
  • -12.3 -38.1 -8.0 -40 -35 -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 1961 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 Maize Wheat Rice Import of main cereals into Africa (million tons) 0.0 -13.8 -8.0 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 1961 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 Maize Wheat Rice Africa SS Africa
  • Major wheat importers 0.32 0.32 0.34 0.36 0.38 0.40 0.44 0.52 0.55 0.84 1.00 1.24 1.70 1.71 1.84 1.91 3.24 3.97 5.06 10.59 0.00 2.00 4.00 6.00 8.00 10.00 Net imports (million tons), 2010
  • Feasibility study 1. How large is the potential? Assess to what extent domestic wheat production in SS Africa would be economically profitable and competitive to imports. 2. Constraints for harnessing the potential for import substitution 3. Policy implications for African governments on strategic role of wheat
  • Computation of net economic return (NER) for estimating import competitiveness The NER computed at the pixel level: NER=P*Y-TVC Where P*Y is the gross farm return (US$/ha); P is the pixel level adjusted IPP (import parity price) for wheat (US$/kg); Y is the adjusted pixel level simulated wheat yield (kg/ha), adjusted downward by 10% TVC is the pixel level variable cost (US$/ha) including import parity fertilizer costs and interest on working capital
  • Rainfed Wheat Suitability Map: IIASA FAO GAEZ Case study countries for the feasibility study
  • Country Average (kg/ha) Angola 1055 Burundi 2886 Ethiopia 2348 Kenya 3087 Madagascar 2175 Mozambique 1052 Rwanda 3681 Tanzania 1986 DRC 1655 Uganda 2861 Zambia 1462 Zimbabwe 911 Yield under low intensification (all pixels)
  • Country Average (kg/ha) Angola 1542 Burundi 3208 Ethiopia 2972 Kenya 3410 Madagascar 2605 Mozambique 1287 Rwanda 3986 Tanzania 2219 DRC 2059 Uganda 3383 Zambia 1933 Zimbabwe 1394 Yield under medium intensification (all pixels)
  • Country Average (kg/ha) Angola 1886 Burundi 3395 Ethiopia 3395 Kenya 3617 Madagascar 2874 Mozambique 1444 Rwanda 4151 Tanzania 2372 DRC 2325 Uganda 3728 Zambia 2252 Zimbabwe 1744 Yield under High intensification (all pixels)
  • NER under Low intensification (for pixels NER>0) Country Average NER (US$/ha) Pixels with positive NERs (%) Angola 195 22 Burundi 905 100 Ethiopia 618 71 Kenya 802 91 Madagascar 524 73 Mozambique 111 15 Rwanda 1314 96 Tanzania 347 68 DRC 270 53 Uganda 742 99 Zambia 301 63 Zimbabwe 250 35
  • Country Average NER (US$/ha) Pixels with positive NERs (%) Angola 250 28 Burundi 1010 100 Ethiopia 670 88 Kenya 885 92 Madagascar 651 76 Mozambique 128 19 Rwanda 1416 96 Tanzania 371 70 DRC 275 71 Uganda 898 100 Zambia 385 80 Zimbabwe 271 58 NER under Medium intensification (for pixels NER>0)
  • Country Average NER (US$/ha) Pixels with positive NERs (%) Angola 275 32 Burundi 1061 100 Ethiopia 771 90 Kenya 931 92 Madagascar 731 76 Mozambique 145 21 Rwanda 1461 96 Tanzania 384 71 DRC 302 76 Uganda 994 100 Zambia 444 86 Zimbabwe 309 76 NER under High intensification (for pixels NER>0)
  • Potential area (>$200/ha) and production (medium level of intensification) Area (million ha) Production (million tons) 10% 25% 10% 25% Mozambique 0.1 0.26 0.27 0.67 Burundi 0.14 0.34 0.45 1.11 Rwanda 0.14 0.36 0.61 1.51 Uganda 0.2 0.51 0.69 1.72 DRC 0.25 0.62 0.76 1.89 Kenya 0.67 1.67 2.65 6.63 Zimbabwe 0.81 2.03 1.72 4.3 Angola 0.92 2.31 2.67 6.67 Tanzania 1.21 3.02 3.62 9.05 Madagascar 1.27 3.17 4.74 11.85 Zambia 1.73 4.32 4.26 10.64 Ethiopia 2.6 6.5 9.42 23.55 All 10.04 25.11 31.86 79.59
  • Competitiveness with other crops Country Crop Average NER for wheat competing crops <200 USD/ha (% pixels or hhs) >200 USD/ha (% pixels or hhs) Kenya Wheat 803 19.0 81.0 Maize (N=607) 165 67.1 32.9 Beans (N=593) 117 75.5 24.5 Tanzania Wheat 212 50.7 49.3 Maize (N=699) 186 70.1 29.9 Beans (N=373) 147 78.3 21.7 Pigeonpea (N=266) 139 80.5 19.5 Ethiopia Wheat 570 24.4 75.6 Maize (N=2373) 231 65.7 34.3 Beans (N=587) 580 28.1 71.9 White teff (N=718) 188 62.7 37.3 Barley (N=333) 144 80.1 19.9 Sorghum (N=786) 134 82.4 17.6 Malawi Maize (N=1906) 114 76.9 23.1 Groundnut (N=1201) 170 73 27 Sweet potatoes (N=204) 349 59.7 40.7 Tomatoes (N=163) 549 60.7 39.3 Tobacco (N=568) 608 59.9 40.1
  • Constraints to wheat in SS Africa • Perception that wheat is not for SS Africa: cannot competitively produce wheat (under-funded and under- invested crop) • Imperfect information and inadequate awareness by farmers and policy makers • Subsidized and cheap imports that undermine domestic production • Cultural and social factors – lack of prior experience by smallholder farmers • Lack of mechanization – production, harvesting, threshing • Lack of capacity - research, production and value chain development
  • Conclusions • Strong emerging evidence of large underutilized potential for economically profitable wheat production to meet the growing consumption demand • Variable potential - many countries (but not all) have suitable agro-ecologies for competitive wheat production • Results are generally robust to plausible shocks – Low world prices of wheat and high fertilizer costs will reduce the relative competitiveness of domestic production – Investment in R&D to increase yields and to reduce domestic production and marketing costs will increase it • The limiting factors for wheat in Africa seem to be less of agro-ecological and more of socio-cultural, institutional and policy impediments.
  • Targeting opportunities for wheat in Africa: Entry points and priority actions Bekele Shiferaw, Victor Kommerell and Wilfred Mwangi
  • Outline 1. What’s needed now: National/regional commitments & W4A investment options for international donors 2. Knowledge gaps 3. Current investments 4. Entry points 5. Proposed next steps and call for action
  • What Africa needs now to harness this potential? • Paradigm shift – policy dialogue and conversation on potential opportunities (rainfed/irrigated) • Action plan will vary by country/region – Assess current limiting constraints in farming systems and market access challenges – Tradeoffs and synergies with other crops grown by farmers – Crop-livestock integration and rotation with legumes – Strategy for small vs. medium and large scale farmers – Combine intensification and extensification options • Pilot projects and adaptive research to identify suitable and market preferred varieties in different agro-ecologies
  • Knowledge gaps 1. Detailed wheat profitability potential studies (rain-fed and irrigated), beyond modelling-based projections developed in 2012 2. Understand constraints to smallholder wheat production - mechanization, markets, cultural, policy, etc 3. Investigate wheat-related trade/value chain obstacles & opportunities at regional level: Baseline for developing African common market for wheat & other food commodities 4. Wheat consumption trends in Africa (who, where, why) & projections 5. Address complex Agri-R4D challenges: Continental germplasm exchange, multi-country/agro-eco zone breeding platforms, biomass (ecological intensification, wheat alternative uses/livestock trade-offs) 6. Develop integrated wheat systems technologies for high potential countries/regions 7. Investigate African wheat imports net winners and losers
  • Current W4A projects – good start but far from requirements 29 Annual wheat improvement training courses (CIMMYT); SARD-SC/Wheat (ICARDA-led); Rust-related capacity development (DRRW) SARD-SC/Wheat, started 2013, 3 hubs with 12 SSA countries: agronomy ‘packages’; CD Seed on mechanisation (Ethiopia, BMZ); FACASI on small- scale mechanisation, starts 2013 (Ethiopia ; ACIAR); ATA (83 Ethiopian districts with easy reach wheat potential) Accelerated variety release (Ethiopia, USAID) IWIN (WHEAT); EAPP (East Africa, regional adaptation trials); SARD-SC/Wheat Durable Rust Resistance Wheat project (DRRW/BGRI)
  • Opportunities for increasing production • Evaluate alternative strategies for expansion – Land surplus economies. e.g. Mozambique, Zambia, Angola, Zimbabwe, Madagascar and Tanzania. complementary investments in roads, irrigation, storage and marketing systems. – Land constrained economies: Limited expansion of wheat into new areas for commercial production may be possible e.g. areas with good market access, e.g. densely populated highland regions of Rwanda, Burundi, Kenya, Ethiopia and parts of Tanzania and Uganda consider integrating wheat into existing faming systems without necessarily crowding out other profitable crops. • Both smallholder and large-scale commercial production • Rainfed and irrigated systems
  • Proposed action plan: key entry points Target region/typology Key challenges and investment priorities Potential donors 1. Countries where smallholder production exists - Integrated interventions for improving productivity and sustainability (e.g. Ethiopia, Tanzania, Burundi, Rwanda, Burundi) • Close yield gap • Improve service delivery (extens, credit, storage, etc) • Seed delivery, agronomy, intensification and systems • Enhance value chains and profitability of wheat • Marketing, quality and processing GoV, BMGF, AfDB, CIDA, SIDA, DIFID, IFAD, USAID, etc 2. Countries with potential but limited smallholder production – Test and validate competitiveness of wheat (e.g. Zambia, Zimbabwe, Kenya, Angola, Malawi, Mozambique, etc.) • On-farm trials with varieties, agronomy, etc • Test competitiveness: Generate actual on-farm and value chain data to see the case for competitiveness with imports and other crops • Policy recommendations on smallholder wheat systems in Africa GoV, BMGF, AfDB, etc 3. Integrated innovations and investments for exploiting irrigated systems (e.g. Nigeria, Zambia, Sudan, Zimbabwe, Mali, etc.) • Overcoming soil salinity, heat tolerance, land degradation, sustainable productivity growth • Enhance value chains and profitability of wheat • Marketing, quality and processing Nigeria, Sudan, Zambia, AfDB, BMZ, etc
  • Concrete next steps (our ideas) 1. Consider wheat in the CAADP National Agricultural Investment Plans 2. Build on the AfDB funded SARD-SC project to validate potentials and build the proof of concept in selected target countries 3. Initiate dialogue with development investors and stakeholders on strategies for reducing import dependence 4. Regional platforms for data collection: – Gather high quality data and share with governments and development investors – Regional phenotyping platform: 2 – 3 locations in Africa to observe yield and heat & drought tolerance 5. Establish Partnership for Wheat Development in Africa (W4AC) – continental platform for spearheading the advocacy and implementation of the W4A strategy.
  • Thank you for your attention! Your questions and comments, please http://wheat.org/ Victor Kommerell, CRP Program Manager: v.kommerell@cgiar.org Africa Agriculture Science Week 2013
  • Production and degree of self-sufficiency for wheat in Africa (2008 - 2010) Country Area (1000 ha) Production (1000 tons) Self-sufficiency (%) Morocco 2,896.0 5,005.7 60.71 Algeria 1,585.1 2,388.1 29.33 Ethiopia 1,520.7 2,725.4 64.33 Egypt 1,283.2 7,889.7 45.78 South Africa 649.5 1,839.3 59.50 Tunisia 585.2 1,131.6 40.93 Sudan 308.8 543.9 25.38 Kenya 140.6 356.0 40.12 Libya 133.3 105.0 6.71 Tanzania 49.0 92.9 11.00 Rwanda 48.1 72.5 73.01 Nigeria 34.7 51.3 1.40 Others 141.8 340.9 5.24 Africa 9,376.0 22,542.3 40.2
  • Annex: Sources of wheat imports – SSA big 5 (2000-10) Source: FAOSTAT Trade database Importing country Share of total imports from source country Source country Ethiopia Kenya Nigeria RSA Sudan All 5 Argentina 0.0% 22.3% 8.9% 31.2% 5.4% 15.0% Australia 1.0% 6.6% 0.7% 9.1% 44.6% 7.8% Belgium 0.0% 0.1% 13.1% 0.0% 0.0% 4.0% Bulgaria 8.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.5% Canada 2.3% 2.4% 1.3% 8.0% 25.7% 5.5% Germany 0.7% 2.5% 0.3% 22.0% 0.0% 6.4% Italy 20.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% 3.8% Pakistan 0.0% 6.1% 0.0% 0.0% 2.6% 1.2% Russian Federation 0.9% 16.9% 0.8% 0.3% 0.4% 3.3% Ukraine 4.4% 18.7% 0.0% 2.1% 0.0% 4.4% USA 48.9% 7.7% 57.9% 20.6% 6.0% 33.8% Other countries 13.6% 16.4% 17.0% 6.7% 14.5% 13.3% TOTAL 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
  • Wheat becoming #1 staple in many places 36  Lusaka, Zambia – 2007/08 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 1 2 3 4 5 Total %ofwheat+maize+riceexpenditures Consump on quin le Wheat Maize Rice Source: Mason & Jayne (2009) Similar patterns: Kitwe, Zambia Nairobi, Kenya Maputo, Mozambique
  • Growth rates in per capita wheat consumption (%) Region 1961 - 1970 1971 - 1980 1981 - 1990 1991 - 2000 2000 - 2009 1961 - 2009 E&S Africa with RSA 2.45 0.69 0.62 1.29 1.63 1.31 E&S Africa without RSA 3.65 0.90 0.84 1.76 2.64 1.91 Western and Central Africa 6.81 8.45 -3.27 6.97 2.02 4.19 North Africa 1.11 3.60 0.62 -0.57 0.50 1.06 Developing countries 3.13 3.31 1.02 0.64 -0.33 1.56 Developed countries -0.70 -0.37 0.16 -0.58 -0.21 -0.33 World 0.49 1.28 0.49 0.04 -0.38 0.40
  • Average annual total wheat demand growth rates (%) Region 1961- 1970 1971 - 1980 1981 - 1990 1991 - 2000 2001 - 2009 1961 - 2009 E&S Africa with RSA 5.12 3.19 3.34 3.76 5.79 4.19 E&S Africa without RSA 6.29 3.44 3.87 4.36 7.63 5.04 Western & Central Africa 9.44 11.45 -0.62 9.93 4.74 6.98 North Africa 3.60 6.08 3.45 1.29 2.20 3.34 Developing countries 5.34 5.28 3.09 2.74 1.37 3.57 Developed countries 4.01 1.21 1.79 -1.71 0.69 1.15 World 4.47 2.84 2.37 0.61 1.03 2.24
  • Drivers of growing demand • Population growth • Income growth • Urbanization • Female employment and opportunity cost of time • Declining international prices relative to other staples • Globalization and changing lifestyles