Climate Change: Myth or reality? Potential impact on Food security in Africa

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This presentation was prepared by Mr. Benjamin DeRidder and Mr. Lamourdia Thiombiano (Deputy Regional Representative for Africa), and it was presented by Mr Thiombiano during the first plenary at the 2nd International Climate Change and Population Conference on Africa at Legon university in Accra, Ghana.

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  • This transformation of agriculture is being promoted by FAO along with other partners under the term “Climate-smart agriculture”, an agriculture that sustainably increases productivity, resilience (adaptation), reduces/removes greenhouse gases (mitigation) while enhancing the achievement of national food security and development goals.
  • Climate Change: Myth or reality? Potential impact on Food security in Africa

    1. 1. Climate Change: Myth or reality?Potential impact on Food security in Africa2nd International Climate Change and PopulationConference on Africa3-7 June 2013, Accra, GhanaMr. B. De RidderDr L. ThiombianoFAO, Regional Office for Africa
    2. 2. Climate change or climatic change• Any systematic change in the long-term statistics of climateelements sustained over several decades or longer.• Climate change is the change in average weather over time andover a region. It includes long-term, smaller changes intemperature, wind patterns and precipitation. Climate change maybe due to natural and/or anthropogenic processes.– Natural climate changes have been part of the earth behavior– Long term changes are still not well understoodWhat is Climate Change (CC) ???
    3. 3. What is Climate Change (CC) ???
    4. 4. What is Climate Change (CC) ???Climate Change Skeptics and arguments No consensus Unreliable computer models Sea level rise is under discussion Stabilizing of global surface temperatures Insufficient local measuring stations Uncertainties
    5. 5. What is Climate Change (CC) ???Confirmed: Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) (IPCC)1. Markedly increased since 1750 of global atmosphericconcentrations of green house gases (GHGs); warming of theclimate system is unequivocal.2. Rise of Air and ocean temperatures; snow and ice meltingworldwide and sea level rising.3. Significant increase of Precipitation in parts of North andSouth America, northern Europe and northern and central Asia.4. The Sahel, the Mediterranean, southern Africa and parts ofSouthern Asia are becoming drier.
    6. 6. What are the Challenges?• Understanding the Phenomena the mostprecisely• Modeling and Planning• Preparedness• Actions / Challenges and Opportunities
    7. 7. Peter Holmgren, FAO3 November 2009
    8. 8. Regional Context• 12 % of the world’s population and 33% by 2050• > 60% (414 million) in rural areas• Rural areas livelihoods depend essentially on agriculture• Agriculture : major driver of economy and food security• SSA (excluding SA) agriculture employed 62% of thepopulation and generated 27% of GDP• 97% of rainfed agriculture with high risks
    9. 9. Climate Change Projections from IPCC• CO2 enrichment• Temperature increase of 1.5 to 4 C in current century• Arid areas will become drier, humid areas wetter• Increase in droughts and floods (frequency and intensity)• Global mean sea levels will rise from 9cm to 88cm in theperiod 1990 to 2100• High rate of desertification and soil salinization in countrieswith arid zones
    10. 10. Impacts on food availability• Potential for reduced agricultural production• Temporal effects on local markets as well as market prices of importsImpacts on food accessibility• Increase in food prices, loss of farm income• Changed fish farm and fish catch opportunitiesCC Potential impacts on Food Security
    11. 11. CC Potential impacts on Food SecurityImpacts on food utilization• Changes in dietary patterns and new challenges to food safetyImpacts on food system stability• Greater instability of food supply• Need for increased capacity and expenditure to preserve foodfor adequate response to large-scale disasters
    12. 12. Climate Change ImpactsChanges in crop suitability
    13. 13. Climate Change ImpactsReduced productivity due to changes in climate patternsProjected changes in Sub-Saharan African cropyields due to climate change, 2050.
    14. 14. Climate Change ImpactsChange in length of growing cycleThornton P K et al. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 2011;369:117-136Toward 2090, taking 18climate models Four degree rise
    15. 15. Climate Change ImpactsIncreased risks due to extreme climatic eventsCauses/hazards of high mortality risk in Sub-Saharan AfricaSource: Diley et al., 2005
    16. 16. Climate Change ImpactsIncreased risks due to sea level riseAfrican cities at risk due to sea-level rise (includingSt. Denis in Reunion) (Taken from UNHABITAT,2008).1
    17. 17. Climate Change ImpactsAdditional price increase due to weather shocksSource: Oxfam (2012) basedon D. Willenbockel (2012)
    18. 18. Challenges towards 2050• Increased SSA population: 2 billion by 2050 ; 1.1 billion in urbanareas within SSA (from 300 million in 2012)• Changing diets, high exposure settlements, water and landcompetitionPopulation &CC hotspots
    19. 19. Challenges towards 2050• Land availability vs sustainable intensification
    20. 20. Challenges towards 2050• Increased Emissions fromagriculture and land-usechanges 30%Data from Vermeulen et al. 2012; US-EPA, 2011; and Blaser and Robledo, 2007Reality : highest CO2concentrations since Pliocene
    21. 21. Nine major agriculture systems at riskProduction Systems Location at risk RisksRAINFEDCROPPINGHighlandsDensely populated highlands :Rift Valley, Ethiopian plateau,Southern AfricaErosion, land degradation, reduced productivity of soil andwater, increased intensity of flood events, accelerated out-migration, high prevalence and food insecurityRAINFED CROPPINGSemi-arid tropicsSmallholder farming inWestern, Eastern and SouthernAfrica savannah regionAgro-pastoral systems in Sahel,Horn of AfricaDesertification, reduction of production potential, increasedcrop failures due to climate variability and temperatures,increased conflicts, high prevalence of poverty and foodinsecurity, out-migration.RAINFED CROPPINGSubtropicalDensely populated andintensivelycultivated areasDesertification, reduced rainfall and river runoff, andincreased occurrence of droughts and floods reduction ofproduction potential, increased crop failures, high prevalencefood insecurity, further land fragmentation, accelerated out-migration..RAINFED CROPPINGTemperateIntensive farming in SouthernAfricaPollution of soils and aquifers, loss of biodiversity, degradationof freshwater ecosystems, increased crop failure due toincreased climate variability in places.IRRIGATEDRice-basedsystemsSub-Saharan Africa,Madagascar, Western Africa,Eastern AfricaNeed for frequent rehabilitations, poor return on investment,stagnating productivity, large-scale land acquisition, landdegradation.
    22. 22. Nine major agriculture systems at riskProduction Systems Location at risk RisksIRRIGATEDOther cropsRIVER BASINSLarge contiguous irrigation systems fromrivers in dry areas, including Northern AfricaAQUIFERSGroundwater-dependent irrigation systems ininterior arid plains: North AfricaIncreased water scarcity, loss of biodiversity andenvironmental services, desertification, expectedreduction in water availability and shift in seasonal flowsdue to climate change in several placeLoss of buffer role of aquifers, desertification, loss ofagriculture land, reduced recharge due to climate changein places.RANGELANDS Pastoral and grazing lands, fragile soils inSahel, North AfricaDesertification, out-migration, land abandonment, foodinsecurity, intensification of conflicts.FORESTS Tropical forest-cropland interface in CentralAfricaCropland encroachment, slash-and-burn, leading to lossof ecosystems services of forests, land degradation.Other locallyimportantsubsystemsDELTAS AND COASTAL AREASNile delta. Bight of BeninSMALL ISLANDSPERI-URBAN AGRICULTURELoss of agricultural land and groundwater, health-relatedproblems, sea-level rise, higher frequency of cyclones(Eastern Africa), increased incidence of floods.Total loss of freshwater aquifers, increased cost offreshwater production, increased climate change relateddamages (hurricanes, sea-level rise, floods.Pollution, health-related problems for consumers andproducers, competition for land.
    23. 23. Adaptation and mitigationto ensure food security• Ecosystem approach to capture the synergies and manage the trade-offs among foodsecurity, sustainable development, environmental sustainability and climate change Sustainable Land Management Integrated Water Resource Management Integrated Mountain Development Integrated Ecosystem Management• Focus on food security and growth• Design participatory, gender-sensitive and local activities• Build partnership among stakeholders• Support transboundary collaborationM Increased productivityIncreasedresilienceReduced GHGemissionsWin-win adaptation  Win-win mitigation  Climate-smart agriculture   
    24. 24. Climate-smart agriculturewith 3 pillars
    25. 25. Examples of FAO SupportForestry• UN Collaborative Programme on reducing emissions fromdeforestation and forest degradation : UN REDD) in DRC; andREDD+ in Nigeria, Cote d’Ivoire• Sustainable Forest Management in Cameroon• Assistance to the Revision of National Forestry Policy, Legislationand Institutional ReorganizationDisaster Risk Management and Reduction• Strengthen food security, Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) andcapacity in areas prone to climatic shocks and natural hazards inMalawi and Mozambique• Improved Community Drought Response and Resilience in Kenya
    26. 26. FAO SupportFisheries• Support for sustainable climate change adaptation in marine artisanalfisheries communities in West Africa• Strategic Framework for fisheries, aquaculture and climate change• Climate change implications for fishing communities in the LakeChad BasinCross-cutting• Identification of indigenous knowledge on adaptation strategies SSA wide study field work in Upper West Region of Ghana in collaboration withthe Ghanaian Environmental Protection Agency
    27. 27. Promotion of conservationagriculture for SARD and foodsecurity in Southern and EasternAfricaClimate Smart Agriculture: Capturingthe Synergies between Mitigation,adaptation and food securityUN CollaborativeProgramme onreducing emissionsfrom deforestationand forestdegradation (UNREDD)DroughtRecovery andSmallholderAdaptationProgramme inDjibouti andSomaliaStrengthen foodsecurity DisasterRisk Reduction(DRR) and capacityin areas prone toclimatic shocksand naturalhazards in Malawiand MozambiqueSupport for sustainableclimate changeadaptation in marineartisanal fisheriescommunities in WestAfricaIntegrating climateresilience intoagricultural andpastoral productionfor food security invulnerable rural areasthrough the FarmersField School approachUp ScalingConservationAgriculture forImproved FoodSecurity Using theCAADP FrameworkExamples of FAOsupport
    28. 28. Opportunitiesto enhance food securityCarbon credits:• Carbon sequestration and mitigation as well as carbon revenues as aco-benefit, not as a priorityExample: Kenya Agricultural Carbon Project NGO Vi Agroforestry Adoption of Land and forests sustainable Management practices Already on 12,000 ha 60% of annual payment to farmer groups BioCarbon Fund purchases 150,000t emissions reductions
    29. 29. • Develop and implement robust policies to mainstream climate changeadaptation and mitigation into national, and sub-national developmentplans• Increase public and private investments in agriculture and ruraltransformation• Develop database with modeling and early warning and monitoringsystems (CLIMDEM? In AU); role of Academia• Identify, promote and disseminate relevant agricultural technologieswith ecosystem approaches; role of Academia• Increased collaboration between development partners, donors andresearch institutionsKey areas for consideration to address Climate change
    30. 30. Thank you

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