Global Food Security Challenges and long-term perspective Agricultural Development Economics Division Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations Rome, September 2009

Main messages Hunger in the world is increasing Crises exacerbate the situation dramatically Important long-term challenges to agriculture as a source of food and livelihoods Use emerging consensus to reduce hunger and improve food security governance

Hunger in the world is increasing

Crises exacerbate the situation dramatically

Important long-term challenges to agriculture as a source of food and livelihoods

Use emerging consensus to reduce hunger and improve food security governance

Trends in world hunger

The current economic crisis at the core At the heel of soaring food prices Households with depleted coping mechanisms Global crisis, not locally bound However, more fundamental causes of hunger number of hungry has not fallen below 800 million over the past 40 years even in times of economic growth and low food prices

At the heel of soaring food prices

Households with depleted coping mechanisms

Global crisis, not locally bound

However, more fundamental causes of hunger

number of hungry has not fallen below 800 million over the past 40 years

even in times of economic growth and low food prices

Future challenges and perspectives

Source : UN Population Division, from van der Mensbrugghe et al. 2009 Population growth

Income growth Source : Simulation results with World Bank’s ENVISAGE model, from van der Mensbrugghe et al. 2009

How much more needs to be produced by 2050? 255 97 63 23 148 70 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 past future past future past future Developing Developed World Agricultural production

Sources of growth in crop production

Water resources Global abundance of water Local shortages reaching alarming rates Regions without potential for land and water expansion (Near East and North Africa, South Asia) Harvested irrigated land to expand by 17%, water withdrawals by 11%.

Global abundance of water

Local shortages reaching alarming rates

Regions without potential for land and water expansion (Near East and North Africa, South Asia)

Harvested irrigated land to expand by 17%, water withdrawals by 11%.

Feeding the world in 2050 Demand can be met by expanding and better exploiting available resources Scenario assumes that: long-standing forces will continue in the long run (e.g. population, diet shifts, urbanization) yield gaps can be bridged and new varieties will further improve the ability of the world to feed itself

Demand can be met by expanding and better exploiting available resources

Scenario assumes that:

long-standing forces will continue in the long run (e.g. population, diet shifts, urbanization)

yield gaps can be bridged and new varieties will further improve the ability of the world to feed itself

However, many questions remain Global scenario masks that at least 27 countries will face undernourishment above 5% in 2050 370 million people in developing countries would still be hungry Several countries seem to have reached the limits of agro-ecological potential to expand agriculture

Global scenario masks that at least 27 countries will face undernourishment above 5% in 2050

370 million people in developing countries would still be hungry

Several countries seem to have reached the limits of agro-ecological potential to expand agriculture

Five main challenges Yields/technology Climate change Biofuels Hunger reduction and agricultural transformation Global food security governance

Yields/technology

Climate change

Biofuels

Hunger reduction and agricultural transformation

Global food security governance

The yields challenge Yield increases have accounted for the majority of production growth in recent decades Yields and intensification will account for 90% of the growth in crop production Yield Growth for major grains: Decline from 1.9 to 0.7 annual growth rate (1961-2007 vs. 2005-2050) However potential for closing the “yield gap” is high... and achievable

Yield increases have accounted for the majority of production growth in recent decades

Yields and intensification will account for 90% of the growth in crop production

Yield Growth for major grains:

Decline from 1.9 to 0.7 annual growth rate (1961-2007 vs. 2005-2050)

However potential for closing the “yield gap” is high... and achievable

The technology challenge Enormous returns to Research & Development (40-50%) Baseline projections assume a steady growth in yields But global R&D spending is too low and decreasing 1981-1991: 2.1% 1991-2000: 1.1 % (Dev. Countries: 1.9%, Ind. Countries: 0.5% ) Huge disparities: India (6.2%), China (3.9%)

Enormous returns to Research & Development (40-50%)

Baseline projections assume a steady growth in yields

But global R&D spending is too low and decreasing

1981-1991: 2.1%

1991-2000: 1.1 % (Dev. Countries: 1.9%, Ind. Countries: 0.5% )

Huge disparities: India (6.2%), China (3.9%)

Annual growth rates in agricultural R&D

The technology challenge R&D adaptation for the needs of smallholders, marginal areas and orphan crops Incentive structure and resource mobilization to ensure the right technologies for problems of the future Private-public partnerships for agricultural R&D Developing gender-balanced systems for spreading knowledge, skills and technology

R&D adaptation for the needs of smallholders, marginal areas and orphan crops

Incentive structure and resource mobilization to ensure the right technologies for problems of the future

Private-public partnerships for agricultural R&D

Developing gender-balanced systems for spreading knowledge, skills and technology

Impacts of climate change on crop production : vary significantly over time are geographically unevenly distributed Aggregate impacts of projected climate change on the global food system are relatively small. The global balance of food demand and supply is not likely to be challenged until middle of the 21st century. Autonomous adaptation will offset some warming Climate change challenge

Impacts of climate change on crop production :

vary significantly over time

are geographically unevenly distributed

Aggregate impacts of projected climate change on the global food system are relatively small.

The global balance of food demand and supply is not likely to be challenged until middle of the 21st century.

Autonomous adaptation will offset some warming

Climate change challenge Atmospheric changes (CO2 fertilization) may initially increase productivity of current agricultural land Climate change, will have a clearly negative impact in the second half of the 21 st century Impacts on land vary: Land suitability down in Africa and Latin America but up (initially) elsewhere Changes in frequencies of extreme events (droughts, heat waves, severe storms) are more troublesome in the near future

Atmospheric changes (CO2 fertilization) may initially increase productivity of current agricultural land

Climate change, will have a clearly negative impact in the second half of the 21 st century

Impacts on land vary: Land suitability down in Africa and Latin America but up (initially) elsewhere

Changes in frequencies of extreme events (droughts, heat waves, severe storms) are more troublesome in the near future

Climate change challenge Remove key constraints to adaptation Explore key synergies between food security, adaptation and mitigation (technological, institutional, financing ) Using payments for carbon as an important source of funding for developing country agriculture

Remove key constraints to adaptation

Explore key synergies between food security, adaptation and mitigation (technological, institutional, financing )

Using payments for carbon as an important source of funding for developing country agriculture

The biofuels challenge Impacts of biofuels larger in the short and medium run as second generation is developed Hunger reduction hampered by increased biofuel production Opportunities for producers, but uneven access to markets

Impacts of biofuels larger in the short and medium run as second generation is developed

Hunger reduction hampered by increased biofuel production

Opportunities for producers, but uneven access to markets

Agricultural transformation challenge Agriculture’s role beyond food production As an engine of economic growth and poverty reduction As an engine of growth for the rural economy Even in transition countries key role to reduce poverty Share of agriculture generally declines with development Agro-industrialization Erosion of the comparative advantage of smallholders Pressure to commercialize or exit the sector Protect and improve livelihoods during “agricultural transformation”

Agriculture’s role beyond food production

As an engine of economic growth and poverty reduction

As an engine of growth for the rural economy

Even in transition countries key role to reduce poverty

Share of agriculture generally declines with development

Agro-industrialization

Erosion of the comparative advantage of smallholders

Pressure to commercialize or exit the sector

Protect and improve livelihoods during “agricultural transformation”

Governance challenge Create a system that promotes, supports and sustains food security - especially for the poorest and most marginal Address structural causes of food insecurity and their institutional and governance dimensions Improve the management of the world agricultural system Address climate change and its long and short-term challenges Ensure sufficient public investment in agriculture, especially in research, extension, infrastructure and biodiversity

Create a system that promotes, supports and sustains food security - especially for the poorest and most marginal

Address structural causes of food insecurity and their institutional and governance dimensions

Improve the management of the world agricultural system

Address climate change and its long and short-term challenges

Ensure sufficient public investment in agriculture, especially in research, extension, infrastructure and biodiversity

Towards a global food security governance Improve coordination and policy cohesion between all key stakeholders Better address complex and interrelated issues of global food security Ensure that declarations to end hunger are converted to concrete actions

Improve coordination and policy cohesion between all key stakeholders

Better address complex and interrelated issues of global food security

Ensure that declarations to end hunger are converted to concrete actions

Conclusions Agriculture and food security back on the policy agenda Right to Food accepted as a framework for global action Rights to resources frameworks arising as a result Reform of global food security governance Increase public and private investment Sound agricultural policies and strategies Social protection and safety nets Strengthen smallholder access to resources Explore options for coordinated risk management

Agriculture and food security back on the policy agenda

Right to Food accepted as a framework for global action

Rights to resources frameworks arising as a result

Reform of global food security governance

Increase public and private investment

Sound agricultural policies and strategies

Social protection and safety nets

Strengthen smallholder access to resources

Explore options for coordinated risk management

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