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Technology Solutions To Meet
Growing Capacity Demands

              Ken Wright
    Chief Technology Officer, ARRIS

     ...
Topics of Discussion
▪ Drivers of Capacity Pressures

▪ Technology Solution Alternatives




                             ...
Topics of Discussion
▪ Drivers of Capacity Pressures
  - Exponential growth in internet traffic




                      ...
Demand for Convergence and
Bandwidth Growing
                                         U.S. Online Video Viewed on Major Vi...
Over The Top (OTT) Trends
                                            Total Online Videos Viewed/Month
            16
    ...
Over The Top (OTT) Trends
                              Number of Minutes Watched/Average Viewer/Month

                40...
IP Video...
It's Here To Stay... And It's Growing!
     Overall Online Video Usage (U.S.)
                                ...
On Demand
Drivers For Growth




                                                                                         ...
Several Applications Are Currently
Driving the DOCSIS Bandwidth Growth
▪ Many MSOs indicated average downstream traffic le...
Data Speed Trends for Modems Predict
     Ongoing Exponential Growth
                  Max Permitted Bandwidth for Modems ...
Trends and Predictions of
Maximum Offered Modem Bandwidths

                                              100G
Max DS Perm...
Trends in the Next Decade:
Bandwidth Growth
                                                        ???
                  ...
Topics of Discussion
▪ Drivers of Capacity Pressures
  - Exponential growth in internet traffic
  - Increase in other Unic...
Topics of Discussion
▪ Drivers of Capacity Pressures
▪ Technology Solution Alternatives
  - HFC bandwidth expansion (450 M...
Evolution of Bandwidth & Utilization
Upstream Capacity Limited
    -Status monitoring
    -Set-tops return
     Set-      ...
Topics of Discussion
▪ Drivers of Capacity Pressures
▪ Technology Solution Alternatives
  - HFC bandwidth expansion (450 M...
MSOs Are Moving Toward DOCSIS
For Their IP Video Delivery
▪ Based on a trusted DOCSIS architecture
▪ Converges transport o...
IPTV over DOCSIS –
Cost Reductions Due to Larger IPTV Packet Sizes
                                                  Avg. ...
Topics of Discussion
▪ Drivers of Capacity Pressures
▪ Technology Solution Alternatives
  - HFC bandwidth expansion (450 M...
What is IP Video?
▪ IPTV - overused term, means anything from YouTube video clips to watching full
  programs on Hulu or s...
Drivers for IP Video Adoption
▪ Consumer
      -   Any content, Anywhere, Anytime
      -   Content sharing across multipl...
Driver is Consumer Demand
Any Content, Any Where, Any Time
    Today’s Cable Video delivery is an “OR” choice for the cons...
Examples of IPTV Services
Many MSOs Are Planning to Offer IP
Video Within the Decade
▪ Offers access to a broader audience and all three screens (TV...
Ultimately Convergence in the Home and
in the Network

Scheduled Programming
                                             ...
Streaming over DOCSIS3.0

▪ DOCSIS3.0 bonds multiple 6 MHz channels
   - 4x34 mbps = 136 mbps
   - 8x34 mbps = 272 mbps
  ...
View of Individual Streams




   21 streams MPEG4 HD streams each peaking at ~ 20 mbps
Same Streams Packed into 40 mbps Channels




                                                                  40 mbps


...
Same Streams Self-averaging inside 160 mbps




                                                           160 mbps




  ...
VBR Self-averaging inside 320 mbps


       8 bonded RF channels can carry 48 streams
              4 RF channels used



...
Topics of Discussion
▪ Drivers of Capacity Pressures
▪ Technology Solution Alternatives
  - HFC bandwidth expansion (450 M...
Segmentation Solutions
▪ Reduce service group sizes – fewer users sharing
  bandwidth
▪ Relatively low cost way to gain ca...
Segmentable Nodes Network View

     4 x 4 Segmentation   Segmented Amplifier Cascades




                               ...
Existing Fiber is Being Exhausted
Need Emerging for Fiber Reuse Technology
           Late 1990’s              Mid 2000’s ...
Topics of Discussion
▪ Drivers of Capacity Pressures
▪ Technology Solution Alternatives
  - HFC bandwidth expansion (450 M...
Graceful Evolution Using Existing Infrastructure
Fiber Deep -> RFoG -> EPON




                                          ...
Thank You



Questions?




             38
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Expo Canitec 2010, Taller Arris

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Soluciones tecnológicas para atender los crecientes requerimientos de capacidad

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Transcript of "Expo Canitec 2010, Taller Arris"

  1. 1. Technology Solutions To Meet Growing Capacity Demands Ken Wright Chief Technology Officer, ARRIS CANITEC Monterrey, Mexico 28 April, 2010
  2. 2. Topics of Discussion ▪ Drivers of Capacity Pressures ▪ Technology Solution Alternatives 2
  3. 3. Topics of Discussion ▪ Drivers of Capacity Pressures - Exponential growth in internet traffic 3
  4. 4. Demand for Convergence and Bandwidth Growing U.S. Online Video Viewed on Major Video Properties* 20 More than Doubled in 24 Months Videos Viewed (Billions) 15 IP Video 10 All Video on Demand 5 High Definition 100 Video on Demand 90 0 Video Mar-07 Jul-07 Sep-07 Nov-07 Dec-07 Jan-08 Feb-08 Mar-08 Apr-08 May-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 80 Blogs Megabits per Second Podcasting 70 150% More Bandwidth Consumed per Subscriber Online- Games 60 Per Subscriber Video Every Year Mail 50 Since 1982 Video on Demand 40 Digital 30 Photos VoIP 20 Web Digital Music Browsing 10 E-Mail Time 0 Sources: Comscore, ARRIS estimates www.arrisi.com 4
  5. 5. Over The Top (OTT) Trends Total Online Videos Viewed/Month 16 14.3 14 12 Billions 10 8 7.2 6 4 2 0 © Copyright 2009. Broadband Directions LLC. All rights reserved. Source: comScore
  6. 6. Over The Top (OTT) Trends Number of Minutes Watched/Average Viewer/Month 400 # of minutes 350 327 300 250 200 151 150 100 50 0 Source: comScore © Copyright 2009. Broadband Directions LLC. All rights reserved.
  7. 7. IP Video... It's Here To Stay... And It's Growing! Overall Online Video Usage (U.S.) Year-Over- Month-Over- Oct-09 Year Month Unique Viewers 138,623,000 +14.8% -0.5% Total Streams 11,226,935,000 +26.2% +1.9% Streams per Viewer 81.0 +9.9% +2.4% Time per Viewer (min) 212.5 +23.8% +8.9% Source: The Nielsen Company www.arrisi.com 7
  8. 8. On Demand Drivers For Growth 8 © Copyright 2008. Broadband Directions LLC. All rights reserved. All images are the property of their respective copyright owners.
  9. 9. Several Applications Are Currently Driving the DOCSIS Bandwidth Growth ▪ Many MSOs indicated average downstream traffic levels increased by 40-50% in 2009... some saw even larger increases ▪ Recent measurements indicate that more than 60% of the Internet traffic is created by: - Peer-to-peer file transfers (mostly movies) - Progressive video downloads (YouTube, Hulu, Netflix, etc.) 10
  10. 10. Data Speed Trends for Modems Predict Ongoing Exponential Growth Max Permitted Bandwidth for Modems (bps) (1.5) (2006-1982) = 5M/300 (1.5) (2016-2006) = 300M/5M 100G "Past performance is no guarantee of 100 Gbps 10G future results, but..." ??? 10 Gbps The past 25-years show a 1G 1 Gbps constant increase of ~1.5x per year... 100M ~300 Mbps 12 Mbps 50 Mbps 10M 12 Mbps The Era of 1M 1 Mbps 5 Mbps ~3.5 Mbps Wideband 256 kbps 512 kbps Cable Modems 100k 56 kbps 28 kbps 128 kbps 90 kbps 10k 9.6 kbps 33 kbps Avg. BW 14.4 kbps The Era of 1.2 kbps 2.4 kbps Cable Modems 1k 300 bps The Era of 100 Dial-Up Modems 10 Year 1 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2016 11 ARRIS Confidential and Proprietary
  11. 11. Trends and Predictions of Maximum Offered Modem Bandwidths 100G Max DS Permitted Bandwidth for Modems (bps) The Era of 10G Wideband Cable Modems 1G The past 25-years show a constant bandwidth increase of ~1.5x every year... 200 Mbps ~300 Mbps ? 100M 50 Mbps 10M 12 Mbps 1M 1 Mbps 5 Mbps 256 kbps 512 kbps 100k 56 kbps 28 kbps 128 kbps 10k 9.6 kbps 33 kbps 14.4 kbps The Era of 1.2 kbps 2.4 kbps Cable Modems 1k 300 bps The Era of 100 Dial-Up 10 Modems 1 Year 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2016 12
  12. 12. Trends in the Next Decade: Bandwidth Growth ??? >1000 IPTV + HSD # DOCSIS Downstreams Required for 40K HHP Headend HSD 40 Year ▪ HSD & IPTV demands will lead to even more DOCSIS downstreams per headend ▪ ARRIS CMTSs must (and will) reduce the price/DOCSIS downstream to enable this evolution ARRIS Confidential and Proprietary 13
  13. 13. Topics of Discussion ▪ Drivers of Capacity Pressures - Exponential growth in internet traffic - Increase in other Unicast traffic (voice, Video On Demand, etc.) - Deployment of HD channels - 3D - Each program requires ~1.3x to ~1.5x the bandwidth - Simulcasting will require many resolutions for different devices ▪ Example: 600 kbps for cell phones, 1.75 Mbps for PCs, 3.75 Mbps for Standard-Definition TVs, and 15 Mbps for High-Definition TVs 14
  14. 14. Topics of Discussion ▪ Drivers of Capacity Pressures ▪ Technology Solution Alternatives - HFC bandwidth expansion (450 Mhz, 550, 750, 860, 1GHz) - Analog recapture -> All Digital (but still a lot of analog TVs) 15
  15. 15. Evolution of Bandwidth & Utilization Upstream Capacity Limited -Status monitoring -Set-tops return Set- 2000 -DOCSIS return DOCSIS forward Analog Video Digital broadcast 20 40 50 MHz 550 750 860 -Status monitoring -Set-tops return Set- -VOD, SVOD -DOCSIS return -CBR telephony return 2004 -DOCSIS forward -CBR telephony forward Analog Video Digital broadcast 20 40 50 MHz 550 750 860 -Status monitoring -VOD, SVOD -Set-tops return Set- -DOCSIS -DOCSIS return -SME -CBR telephony return 2008 -CBR telephony -VoIP & SME return -VoIP Analog Video Digital broadcast HDTV 20 40 50 MHz 550 750 860 -VOD, SVOD -Status monitoring -DOCSIS -Set-tops return Set- -SME -DOCSIS return 2012 -SDV -VoIP & SME return -VoIP -IPTV Standard Definition Digital Video HDTV Unicast 20 40 50 MHz 550 750 860 1,000
  16. 16. Topics of Discussion ▪ Drivers of Capacity Pressures ▪ Technology Solution Alternatives - HFC bandwidth expansion (450 Mhz, 550, 750, 860, 1GHz) - Analog recapture -> All Digital (but still a lot of analog TVs) - Higher order compression (MPEG 4) and modulation (1024 QAM) (limited by installed base of set-tops) - DOCSIS 3.0 • 4 channels yields 160 Mbps 17
  17. 17. MSOs Are Moving Toward DOCSIS For Their IP Video Delivery ▪ Based on a trusted DOCSIS architecture ▪ Converges transport of voice, high speed data, and IP video ▪ Provides channel-bonding and stat-mux gains for 30% or more extra content offerings ▪ Provides high availability and intelligent packet scheduling of CMTS, as well as CMTS quality of service ▪ Provides the next generation of cost-effective CMTS solutions geared toward IP Video transport - Moore's Law silicon benefits - Increased packet size trends due to IP video - Multi-core chip architectures 18
  18. 18. IPTV over DOCSIS – Cost Reductions Due to Larger IPTV Packet Sizes Avg. Packet Size for HSD = 300 bytes Avg. Packet Size for IPTV = 1370 bytes CMTS HSD: 300 300 300 300 Processor can process all 100% processor 1 Gbps 300B 416K packets/sec... capacity is utilized 416K packets/second arrive CMTS without optimization for IPTV: 1370 Processor can process 416K 1 Gbps Only 22% of packets/sec but there are not 91K packets/second arrive processor’s power is enough packets arriving... utilized CMTS Optimized for IPTV: 1370 1 Gbps Processor can process all 88% processor 1 Gbps 364K 1370B large capacity is utilized 1 Gbps packets/sec arriving... 1 Gbps 364K packets/second arrive 4 plus-fold throughput increase via the same processing engine
  19. 19. Topics of Discussion ▪ Drivers of Capacity Pressures ▪ Technology Solution Alternatives - HFC bandwidth expansion (450 Mhz, 550, 750, 860, 1GHz) - Analog recapture -> All Digital (but still a lot of analog TVs) - Higher order compression (MPEG 4) and modulation (1024 QAM) (limited by installed base of set-tops) - DOCSIS 3.0 • 4 channels yields 160 Mbps - IP Video 20
  20. 20. What is IP Video? ▪ IPTV - overused term, means anything from YouTube video clips to watching full programs on Hulu or streamed programs from an MSO’s channel lineup ▪ “Pure” IP Video - delivery of video services over a managed network via Internet Protocol (IP) to a screen, through a broadband access network ▪ Screens include: - Computers Internet Content Place and Time Shifting - Hand-Held Devices (cell phones) - TVs with IP STBs ▪ Services typically include: - SD and HD video Any Device, Any Photo and File - Digital Video Recorder Where Sharing - Video-on-Demand - Electronic Program Guide - Interactive TV applications - Targeted and Personalized Advertising - Blending of internet and video services - widgets
  21. 21. Drivers for IP Video Adoption ▪ Consumer - Any content, Anywhere, Anytime - Content sharing across multiple devices - Personalized and integrated services – one provider - Exponential growth of internet video usage ▪ Cable Operator - Competition on user experience and variety of services - Additional revenue streams such as targeted advertising - Competition on price – reduce Set Top Box costs ▪ Technology - DOCSIS 3.0 (IPv6, Multicast, High Asymmetry, M-CMTS) - Emergence of Systems on Chip for home devices that are capable of “blending” traditional TV with IP Video content - Network support for higher security and end-to-end QoS - Advancements in processing & memory – Moore’s law - Advanced Codecs – MPEG-4, AVC ARRIS Confidential and Proprietary 22
  22. 22. Driver is Consumer Demand Any Content, Any Where, Any Time Today’s Cable Video delivery is an “OR” choice for the consumer Managed Video Internet Video • Tight Control • High Value Content Internet • Unlimited Choice of User OR Internet Generated Content • Limited Choices of Content • Limited choice of destination - • Limited Choice of High STB & PC Value Content • PC, Game Console & Mobile Devices display Consumer Preference is the “AND” Solution Hybrid Approach Agnostic Content •Central content and storage •Unlimited Content – Movies, TV •Move streaming traffic to the edge Shows, Internet Video, and User •Hierarchical Caching Generated Content •Better asset utilization •Time-shifting •Scalable IP transport •Targeted Advertising 23
  23. 23. Examples of IPTV Services
  24. 24. Many MSOs Are Planning to Offer IP Video Within the Decade ▪ Offers access to a broader audience and all three screens (TV, PC and handheld) ▪ Provides a direct conduit to the 15 to 30-year-old demographic ▪ Monetizes high quality video content with new subscription fees ▪ Offers access to the growing "Internet advertising market" through directed advertising in IP-based videos ▪ Offers opportunity to become "the organizers" of all IP Video content (MSO-based and web-based) ▪ Eliminates high costs of the existing MPEG Set-Top Boxs 25
  25. 25. Ultimately Convergence in the Home and in the Network Scheduled Programming Web Tablet Linear Broadcast Video Smart Phone SDV Video Streaming and Storage VoD/nPVR Video Dynamic Multicast Always-On Static Multicast Simple IP Dynamic Unicast Video Gateway Settop Static Unicast Home CDN Data/Video Data/Video Data/Video Data/Video Data/Video Data/Video Data/Video Data/Video Data/Video Data/Video Internet HFC Network Data/Video Data/Video Video Intranet / Internet (remains unchanged) Data/Video
  26. 26. Streaming over DOCSIS3.0 ▪ DOCSIS3.0 bonds multiple 6 MHz channels - 4x34 mbps = 136 mbps - 8x34 mbps = 272 mbps - 16x34 mbps = 544 mbps ▪ Inside such a large delivery pipe, it is possible to take advantage of “organic” self-averaging of Variable Bit Rate (VBR) streams ▪ Peaks of information inside un- correlated VBR streams are unlikely mbps mbps to occur at the same time instances. Savings ▪ I-frames of streams encoded with variable GOP size occur at random, un-correlated intervals CBR ▪ As a result, the streams naturally VBR self-average their composite bit rate resulting in a more predictable composite stream with Peak to Average (PAR) value closer to 1 time time
  27. 27. View of Individual Streams 21 streams MPEG4 HD streams each peaking at ~ 20 mbps
  28. 28. Same Streams Packed into 40 mbps Channels 40 mbps 6 to 7 RF (6MHz 256 QAM modulated) channels are needed to deliver 21 streams
  29. 29. Same Streams Self-averaging inside 160 mbps 160 mbps 4 bonded RF channels can deliver the same 21 streams
  30. 30. VBR Self-averaging inside 320 mbps 8 bonded RF channels can carry 48 streams 4 RF channels used 320 mbps 48 HD Video VBR streams packed into octal-bonded DOCSIS3.0. That’s 6 more than 2 x 21 in two quad-bonded
  31. 31. Topics of Discussion ▪ Drivers of Capacity Pressures ▪ Technology Solution Alternatives - HFC bandwidth expansion (450 Mhz, 550, 750, 860, 1GHz) - Analog recapture -> All Digital (but still a lot of analog TVs) - Higher order compression (MPEG 4) and modulation (1024 QAM) (limited by installed base of set-tops) - DOCSIS 3.0 • 4 channels yields 160 Mbps - IP Video - Service Area Segmentation 32
  32. 32. Segmentation Solutions ▪ Reduce service group sizes – fewer users sharing bandwidth ▪ Relatively low cost way to gain capacity ▪ Only approach that increases both forward & reverse capacity ▪ Can be done incrementally where needed, when needed ▪ Optical multi-wavelength techniques now take cost of adding fiber out of equation ▪ Amplifier to node upgrades - Segment amplifier cascades for service group size reduction. - Labor (and cost) can be reduced by up to 40% by reusing the amplifier base and eliminating coax resplicing. 33
  33. 33. Segmentable Nodes Network View 4 x 4 Segmentation Segmented Amplifier Cascades 34
  34. 34. Existing Fiber is Being Exhausted Need Emerging for Fiber Reuse Technology Late 1990’s Mid 2000’s Late 2000’s Tx Tx Nodes Nodes New Community Tx Tx Tx Tx Existing fibers Tx approaching Tx exhaustion Tx Tx Tx Tx Tx 32X the Capacity of Late 1990’s www.arrisi.com 35
  35. 35. Topics of Discussion ▪ Drivers of Capacity Pressures ▪ Technology Solution Alternatives - HFC bandwidth expansion (450 Mhz, 550, 750, 860, 1GHz) - Analog recapture -> All Digital (but still a lot of analog TVs) - Higher order compression (MPEG 4) and modulation (1024 QAM) (limited by installed base of set-tops) - DOCSIS 3.0 • 4 channels yields 160 Mbps - IP Video - Service Area Segmentation - Fiber Deeper and Optical Evolution 36
  36. 36. Graceful Evolution Using Existing Infrastructure Fiber Deep -> RFoG -> EPON 37 ARRIS Confidential
  37. 37. Thank You Questions? 38
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