0
©2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian and the marks used herein are service marks or re...
2©2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
 TFS monitors industry trends closely
►...
3©2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
2013 Q4 snapshot: Industry market share
...
4©2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
2013 Q4 snapshot: Industry loan market s...
5©2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
New lease market share trends
0%
5%
10%
...
6©2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
New lease credit distribution on origina...
7©2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
Lease term distribution
Fourth quarter 2...
8©2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
New loan credit distribution on originat...
9©2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
Used loan credit distribution on origina...
10©2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
Comparison of average loan amount and t...
11©2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
Term distribution comparison for new lo...
12©2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
Term distribution comparison for used l...
13©2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
We also insert other relevant industry ...
14©2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
Who is paying off their card balances?
...
15©2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
When will card payment compete with
aut...
16©2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
What type of debts are being paid off f...
17©2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
 Information provided on a regular bas...
18©2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
For additional information, please cont...
19©2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.
Visit the Experian Expert Bar to learn ...
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Vision 2014: Making The Trends Actionable - Automotive Market Expansion

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This session will explore how Toyota Financial Services is using market trends to create actionable insights. From buying deeper to monitoring portfolio performance, hear how this lender is growing their business in today’s competitive automotive market.

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Transcript of "Vision 2014: Making The Trends Actionable - Automotive Market Expansion"

  1. 1. ©2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian and the marks used herein are service marks or registered trademarks of Experian Information Solutions, Inc. Other product and company names mentioned herein are the trademarks of their respective owners. No part of this copyrighted work may be reproduced, modified, or distributed in any form or manner without the prior written permission of Experian. Experian Public. Making the trends actionable: Automotive market expansion Jessica Dees Toyota Financial Services Michael McGrath Toyota Financial Services #vision2014 Melinda Zabritski Experian
  2. 2. 2©2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.  TFS monitors industry trends closely ► How are we performing vs. the industry? ► How are we performing vs. our competitors and peers?  Apples to apples comparison ► We prepare a high level trends report ► Side by side comparison of metrics ► Overall trends ► Links to our performance metrics and risk appetite  Shared with executives at multiple levels ► HQ – ERC and portfolio review meetings ► Field operations Leveraging consumer credit trends from Experian
  3. 3. 3©2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public. 2013 Q4 snapshot: Industry market share 5.80% 5.16% 5.00% 4.61% 4.61% 4.59% 3.58% 3.54% 1.85% 1.72% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% Toyota (TFS) Ally Wells Fargo Honda Ford Chase Nissan Infiniti Capital One Hyundai Capital BMW Share of total finance units (loan and lease) Data provided by Experian 5.8% 4.8%4.6%4.5%4.1% 3.6%3.4% 2.7% 1.7%1.6% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% Top-10 – loan market share 14.2% 12.5% 11.6%9.6% 9.1% 7.3% 6.8% 5.9% 5.3% 3.8% 0% 4% 8% 12% 16% Top 10-lessors – share of new lease market Source: Experian Automotive Top-10 represent 40.5% of total finance units
  4. 4. 4©2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public. 2013 Q4 snapshot: Industry loan market share 8.34% 8.18% 7.99% 6.38% 6.31% 5.85% 4.40% 4.04% 2.81% 2.52% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% Toyota (TFS) Ford Honda Chase Nissan Infiniti Ally Capital OneWells Fargo Chrysler Hyundai Top lenders – new loan market share 6.83% 3.91% 3.81% 3.79% 2.24% 2.20% 1.64% 1.53% 1.37% 1.23% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% Wells FargoCapital One Ally Chase Toyota (TFS) Santander Carmax Credit Acceptance Bank of America 5th 3rd Bank Top lenders – used loan market share Source: Experian Automotive
  5. 5. 5©2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public. New lease market share trends 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% Q4 2009 Q4 2010 Q4 2011 Q4 2012 Q4 2013 New lease market share (Experian data used for industry averages) Industry TFS 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% TFS lease market share trend Source: TFS Risk Management and Experian Automotive
  6. 6. 6©2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public. New lease credit distribution on originations Fourth quarter 2012 – 2013 1.9% 2.5% 9.5% 8.9% 18.5% 20.5% 18.8% 23.9% 51.3% 44.2% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% CY 2012 Q4 CY 2013 Q4 Industry Risk distribution of new lease Deep subprime Subprime Nonprime Prime Super prime Based on VantageScore® 3.0 * 0.5% 0.5% 4.5% 5.0% 15.0% 15.5% 25.0% 26.0% 55.0% 53.0% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% CY 2012 Q4 CY 2013 Q4 TFS Risk distribution of new lease Deep subprime Subprime Nonprime Prime Super prime Based on FICO scores * -2.9% +6.7% Score ranges: Deep Subprime <550; Subprime 550-619; Nonprime 620-679; Prime 680-739; Super prime 740+ TFS amounts do not represent actual amounts. The data provided is for illustrative purposes only Source: TFS Risk Management and Experian Automotive
  7. 7. 7©2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public. Lease term distribution Fourth quarter 2013 and TFS trend TFS amounts do not represent actual amounts. The data provided is for illustrative purposes only Source: TFS Risk Management and Experian Automotive 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 13 - 24 25 - 36 37 - 48 49 - 60 Q4 2013 lease term distribution (Experian data used for industry averages) Industry TFS 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% TFS lease term distribution trend Effective 24-month term (0–27)
  8. 8. 8©2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public. New loan credit distribution on originations Fourth quarter 2012 – 2013 2.0% 3.0% 12.1% 10.8% 18.7% 20.3% 18.5% 21.6% 48.6% 44.3% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% CY 2012 Q4 CY 2013 Q4 Industry Risk distribution of new loans Deep subprime Subprime Nonprime Prime Super prime Based on VantageScore® 3.0 * 0.5% 0.5% 2.5% 3.0% 12.0% 12.5% 20.0% 20.0% 65.0% 64.0% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% CY 2012 Q4 CY 2013 Q4 TFS Risk distribution of new loans Deep subprime Subprime Nonprime Prime Super prime Based on FICO scores * -1.9% +3.9% Score ranges: Deep Subprime <550; Subprime 550-619; Nonprime 620-679; Prime 680-739; Super prime 740+ TFS amounts do not represent actual amounts. The data provided is for illustrative purposes only Source: TFS Risk Management and Experian Automotive
  9. 9. 9©2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public. Used loan credit distribution on originations Fourth quarter 2012 – 2013 14.6% 17.6% 27.1% 21.9% 22.1% 23.2% 14.5% 17.7% 21.7% 19.5% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% CY 2012 Q4 CY 2013 Q4 Industry Risk distribution of used loans Deep subprime Subprime Nonprime Prime Super prime Based on VantageScore® 3.0 * 1.5% 2.0% 6.5% 8.0% 22.0% 25.0% 30.0% 30.0% 40.0% 35.0% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% CY 2012 Q4 CY 2013 Q4 TFS Risk distribution of used loans Deep subprime Subprime Nonprime Prime Super prime Based on FICO scores * +2.8% -1.6% Score ranges: Deep Subprime <550; Subprime 550-619; Nonprime 620-679; Prime 680-739; Super prime 740+ TFS amounts do not represent actual amounts. The data provided is for illustrative purposes only Source: TFS Risk Management and Experian Automotive
  10. 10. 10©2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public. Comparison of average loan amount and term Fourth quarter 2012 – 2013 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 New Used Average amount financed ($) (Experian data used for industry averages) 2012 (Industry) 2013 (Industry) 2012 (TFS) 2013 (TFS) 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 New Used Average term (months) (Experian data used for Industry averages) 2012 (Industry) 2013 (Industry) 2012 (TFS) 2013 (TFS) TFS amounts do not represent actual amounts. The data provided is for illustrative purposes only Source: TFS Risk Management and Experian Automotive
  11. 11. 11©2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public. Term distribution comparison for new loans Fourth quarter 2012 – 2013 -5.5% 1.3% -4.8% -3.9% 19.0% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 25-36 37-48 49-60 61-72 73-84 Industry % of new financing by term * Industry YOY change in Distribution 0% 10% -10% 5% 15% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 25-36 37-48 49-60 61-72 73-84 TFS % of new financing by term * TFS YOY change in Distribution * Excludes showing loan terms less than 25 months and greater than 84 months TFS amounts do not represent actual amounts. The data provided is for illustrative purposes only Source: TFS Risk Management and Experian Automotive
  12. 12. 12©2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public. Term distribution comparison for used loans Fourth quarter 2012 – 2013 -5.8% -7.0% -8.2% 3.9% 23.2% -30% -10% 10% 30% 50% 70% 90% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 25-36 37-48 49-60 61-72 73-84 Industry % of used financing by term * Industry YOY change in Distribution 25% -5% -20% 5% 35% -30% -10% 10% 30% 50% 70% 90% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 25-36 37-48 49-60 61-72 73-84 TFS % of used financing by term * TFS YOY change in Distribution * Excludes showing loan terms less than 25 months and greater than 84 months TFS amounts do not represent actual amounts. The data provided is for illustrative purposes only Source: TFS Risk Management and Experian Automotive
  13. 13. 13©2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public. We also insert other relevant industry factors Source: Experian-Oliver Wyman Intelligence Report Total consumer debt (in $ billions) Debtserviceratio Percentagechange,ayearago 20132007 2009 20102008 2011 2012 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8%
  14. 14. 14©2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public. Who is paying off their card balances? Source: Experian-Oliver Wyman Intelligence Report
  15. 15. 15©2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public. When will card payment compete with auto payment? Source: Experian-Oliver Wyman Intelligence Report Outstanding balances by VantageScore® (in $ billions)
  16. 16. 16©2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public. What type of debts are being paid off first? Percent of balance 90+ days delinquent Source: FRBNY Consumer Credit Panel/Equifax
  17. 17. 17©2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public.  Information provided on a regular basis  Can be used as an input to internal discussions  Experian account executives are available to help Thank you Providing value for TFS
  18. 18. 18©2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public. For additional information, please contact: Melinda.Zabritski@experian.com Hear the latest from Vision 2014 in the Daily Roundup: www.experian.com/vision/blog @ExperianVision | #vision2014 Follow us on Twitter
  19. 19. 19©2014 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved. Experian Public. Visit the Experian Expert Bar to learn more about the topics and products covered in this presentation.
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