Your SlideShare is downloading. ×

Thanks for flagging this SlideShare!

Oops! An error has occurred.

×
Saving this for later? Get the SlideShare app to save on your phone or tablet. Read anywhere, anytime – even offline.
Text the download link to your phone
Standard text messaging rates apply

India 2020: What India will Look Like in the Future

58,196

Published on

India 2020: What India will Look Like in the Future …

India 2020: What India will Look Like in the Future

Today’s Corporate Trends – Where is India beginning to steal China’s Thunder?

Published in: Business, Technology
36 Comments
97 Likes
Statistics
Notes
No Downloads
Views
Total Views
58,196
On Slideshare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
9
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
0
Comments
36
Likes
97
Embeds 0
No embeds

Report content
Flagged as inappropriate Flag as inappropriate
Flag as inappropriate

Select your reason for flagging this presentation as inappropriate.

Cancel
No notes for slide

Transcript

  • 1.
  • 2. Preface: What Does India Look Like from Space? At Night?
    Why?
    Source: NASA (United States – National Aeronautics and Space Administration)
  • 3. INTRODUCTION: India Structural Framework and Forward Trends . . .
  • 4. The FUTURE (2020): World Bank Projects India as #3 Economy in World
    GDP* PPP-adjusted
    2009 GDP*
    France
    EU-27
    UK
    6,4 trillionsde $
    3,6 trillionsde $
    US
    Germany
    Japan
    India
    Japan
    China
    $14.2 tr
    $4.1 tr
    $3.8 tr
    $9.1 tr
    $14.1 tr
    2020 GDP*
    GDP* PPP-adjusted
    France
    UK
    EU-27
    China
    US
    Germany
    India
    Japan
    $28.8 tr
    $30.0 tr
    $13.4 tr
    $6.8 tr
    $29.6 tr
    Source: World Bank
  • 5. India’s Middle Class: 45 million (2010) … 100 million (2025)
    Wealth Trend: Forward Trend in Growing Middle Class
    Middle Class Income Bands for Urban Household
    Urban Household Income
    ( US $ - PPP - Adjusted )
    Global >= US$ 22,158
    Upper Middle Class >= US$ 11,079 - 22,158
    Urban Population (millions)
    Lower Middle Class >= US$ 4,431 – 11,079
    Poor <= US$ 4,431
    Upper Middle Class
    Lower Middle Class
    Sources: Urbanization Rates, Population based on UN, World Urbanization Prospects 2007; MGI Consumer Demand 2008
  • 6. Urbanization Trend: Forward Trend in Mass Migration into Cities
    India’s Urban Population: 340 million (2010) … 465 million (2020)
    India’s Urban Population Growth
    1.5 billion
    1.3 billion
    1.2 billion
    1.04billion
    Rural Population (million)
    0.86 billion
    Urban Population (million)
    Urbanization
    Source: World Urbanization Prospects 2007
  • 7. Infrastructure Trend: Can New Infrastructure Catalyze R&D & Manufacturing?
    Large-Scale Transportation Upgrades Catalyze Full Range of Investments
    Golden Quadrilateral
    North-South Corridor
    East-WestCorridor
    Srinagar
    Jammu
    Pathankot
    Ludhiana
    Chandigarh
    New Delhi
    Jaipur
    Agra
    Guwahati
    Lucknow
    Gwalior
    Kanpur
    Allahabad
    Kota
    Varanasi
    Udaipur
    Silchar
    Gandhinagar
    Ahmedabad
    Rajkot
    Vadodara
    Kolkata
    Porbandar
    Surat
    Baleshwar
    Nagpur
    Cuttack
    Mumbai
    Bhubaneshwar
    Pune
    Hyderabad
    Vishakapatnam
    Vijayawada
    Chennai
    Bangalore
    Coimbatore
    Kochi
    Madurai
    Source: Exolus Research
  • 8. Framework: Resulting A-Cities (Highest Population / Foreign Investment)
    India’s Strengthening A-Cities
    Golden Quadrilateral
    North-South Corridor
    East-WestCorridor
    A-Cities – Highest Population and FDI
    Srinagar
    Jammu
    Pathankot
    Ludhiana
    Chandigarh
    New Delhi
    Jaipur
    Agra
    Guwahati
    Lucknow
    Gwalior
    Kanpur
    Allahabad
    Kota
    Varanasi
    Udaipur
    Silchar
    Gandhinagar
    Ahmedabad
    Rajkot
    Vadodara
    Kolkata
    Porbandar
    Surat
    Baleshwar
    Nagpur
    Cuttack
    Mumbai
    Bhubaneshwar
    Pune
    Hyderabad
    Vishakapatnam
    Vijayawada
    Chennai
    Bangalore
    Coimbatore
    Kochi
    Madurai
    Source: Exolus Research
  • 9. Corporate Trends: Structural Optimization – Innovation, Markets, Production
  • 10. The Past: OffshoringNon-CoreBusiness Processes to India
    Human Resources … Finance & Accounting … Procurement … IT
    3. Markets
    2. Knowledge
    REVENUE
    R&D
    INNOVATION
    Sales
    Engineering
    IT HR
    Service
    1. BPO/ITO
    Manufacturing
    F&A Procure
    Distribution
    Sourcing
    Sales
    Production /Assembly
    R&D
    COST
    Back Office BPO/ITO
    4. Resources
    DRIVING Shareholder Value
  • 11. 1. BPO/ITO: India Global Leader in BPO / ITO
    Success in BPO Leads to Oversubscription of Key Cities
    Leading BPO Cities
    A-Cities – Highest Population and FDI
    Next Tier BPO Cities
    Chandigarh
    Delhi
    Noida
    Faridabad
    Lucknow
    Gurgaon
    Jaipur
    Ahmedabad
    Vadodara
    Indore
    Kolkata
    Nagpur
    Bhubaneswar
    Mumbai
    Visakhapatnam
    Pune
    Hyderabad
    Bangalore
    Mangalore
    Chennai
    Coimbatore
    Tiruchirappalli
    Kochi
    Madurai
    Trivandrum
    Source: NASSCOM
  • 12. 1. BPO/ITO: … Explosive Growth of BPO and ITO Projected through 2020
    IT-BPO Growth Rate @ 11.9% CAGR
    India IT-BPO Projected Growth (2010 – 2020F)
    Export
    Domestic
    100% Increase
    USD Billion
    96 bn
    88 bn
    81 bn
    73 bn
    Source: NASSCOM
  • 13. 1. BPO/ITO: … and Drives Emergence of 25 New Cities for BPO
    New 2nd and 3rd Cities roughly 28% Cheaper than 1st Tier Cities
    Leading BPO Cities
    A-Cities – Highest Population and FDI
    Next Tier BPO cities
    Srinagar
    Follower Cities
    Shimla
    Ludhiana
    Aspirant Cities
    Chandigarh
    Dehradun
    Delhi
    Noida
    Gangtok
    Faridabad
    Lucknow
    Gurgaon
    Guwahati
    Jaipur
    Kanpur
    Patna
    Siliguri
    Gwalior
    Varanasi
    Allahabad
    Ahmedabad
    Bhopal
    Ranchi
    Durgapur
    Vadodara
    Indore
    Kolkata
    Surat
    Nagpur
    Raipur
    Bhubaneswar
    Nashik
    Aurangabad
    Mumbai
    Visakhapatnam
    Pune
    Hyderabad
    Vijayawada
    Goa
    Hubli-Dharwad
    Bangalore
    Mangalore
    Chennai
    Pondicherry
    Mysore
    Salem
    Coimbatore
    Tiruchirappalli
    Kochi
    Madurai
    Trivandrum
    Source: NASSCOM
  • 14. The Transition: Offshoringnow up Value Chain to Core Business Processes
    Research & Development … Sales / Marketing … Production / Manufacturing
    3. Markets
    2. Knowledge
    REVENUE
    R&D
    INNOVATION
    Sales
    Engineering
    IT HR
    Service
    Manufacturing
    F&A Procure
    Distribution
    Sourcing
    Sales
    Production /Assembly
    R&D
    COST
    Back Office BPO/ITO
    4. Resources
    DRIVING Shareholder Value
  • 15. The Future: … and Outsourcing Core Processes to 3rd Party Providers
    Contract Outsourcing: R&D (CRO/KPO) … Sales (CSO) … Manufacturing (CMO)
    3. Markets
    2. Knowledge
    CSO
    R&D
    CRO/KPO
    Sales
    Engineering
    IT HR
    Service
    Virtually Integrated Model
    CMO
    F&A Procure
    Distribution
    Sourcing
    CSO
    Production /Assembly
    CRO/KPO
    CMO
    Back Office BPO/ITO
    4. Resources
    DRIVING Shareholder Value
  • 16. 2. Innovation: Big Pharma Deploying Upstream R&D Functions to India
    Evolving Biopharmaceutical Innovation Clusters
    A-Cities – Highest Population and FDI
    Jammu / Kashmir
    Himachal Pradesh
    Punjab
    Uttarakhand
    Haryana
    Arunachal Pradesh
    New Delhi
    New Delhi
    Sikkim
    Uttar Pradesh
    Gurgaon
    Rajasthan
    Assam
    Meghalaya
    Bihar
    Manipur
    Tripura
    Jharkhand
    Mizoram
    Madhya Pradesh
    Gujarat
    West Bengal
    Kolkata
    Chhattisgarh
    Orissa
    Maharashtra
    Mumbai
    Pune
    Hyderabad
    Andhra Pradesh
    Goa
    Karnataka
    Bangalore
    Tamil Nadu
    Kerala
    Source: Centre for International Trade in Technology of IIFT, Companies Website
  • 17. 2. Innovation: Technology Deploying Upstream R&D Functions to India
    Evolving Technology Innovation Clusters
    A-Cities – Highest Population and FDI
    Jammu / Kashmir
    Himachal Pradesh
    Punjab
    Uttarakhand
    Haryana
    Arunachal Pradesh
    New Delhi
    Sikkim
    Noida
    Rajasthan
    Assam
    Uttar Pradesh
    Meghalaya
    Bihar
    Tripura
    Jharkhand
    Mizoram
    Madhya Pradesh
    Gujarat
    West Bengal
    Kolkata
    Chhattisgarh
    Maharashtra
    Pune
    Hyderabad
    Andhra Pradesh
    Karnataka
    Bangalore
    Tamil Nadu
    Kerala
    Source: Centre for International Trade in Technology of IIFT, Companies Website
  • 18. 2. Innovation: Automotive Deploying Upstream R&D Functions to India
    Evolving Automotive Innovation Clusters
    A-Cities – Highest Population and FDI
    Jammu / Kashmir
    Himachal Pradesh
    Punjab
    Uttarakhand
    Haryana
    Arunachal Pradesh
    New Delhi
    Sikkim
    Rajasthan
    Assam
    Uttar Pradesh
    Meghalaya
    Bihar
    Tripura
    Jharkhand
    Mizoram
    Madhya Pradesh
    Gujarat
    West Bengal
    Kolkata
    Chhattisgarh
    Maharashtra
    Mumbai
    Hyderabad
    Andhra Pradesh
    Karnataka
    Bangalore
    Chennai
    Tamil Nadu
    Kerala
    Source: Centre for International Trade in Technology of IIFT, Companies Website
  • 19. 2. Innovation: Chemical-Based Deploying Upstream R&D Functions to India
    Evolving Chemical Innovation Clusters
    A-Cities – Highest Population and FDI
    Jammu / Kashmir
    Himachal Pradesh
    Punjab
    Uttarakhand
    Haryana
    Arunachal Pradesh
    New Delhi
    Sikkim
    Gurgaon
    Rajasthan
    Assam
    Uttar Pradesh
    Meghalaya
    Bihar
    Tripura
    Jharkhand
    Mizoram
    Madhya Pradesh
    Gujarat
    West Bengal
    Kolkata
    Chhattisgarh
    Vadodara
    Maharashtra
    Mumbai
    Pune
    Hyderabad
    Andhra Pradesh
    Karnataka
    Bangalore
    Tamil Nadu
    Kerala
    Source: Centre for International Trade in Technology of IIFT, Companies Website
  • 20. 3. Market/Revenues: Car Sales Proxy for Directional Market Sizing?
    Car Penetration Highest in India Risking Steeply
    India
    Car Penetration in BRIC (units per 1,000 people)
    Russia
    Car Penetration in India (units per 1,000 people)
    Brazil
    China
    Sources: Association of European Business; Autostat;; Other
  • 21. USD28 billion Market by 2015 … 9th in World
    3. Market: India Projected to be World’s 9th Largest Pharma Market by 2015
    Pharmaceutical Market Size Country Ranking (USD billion)
    Sources: IMS; GSK, “Assessment of Opportunity for Pharmaceutical Manufacturers in Emerging Markets” JMCP; Monitor Analysis; Exolus
  • 22. 3. Market: High Spending Continues through Global Economic Crisis
    Sales Growing at 8.7% CAGR
    Retail Sales (2003 – 2015F)
    USD Billion
    CAGR = 8.7%
    Source: EIU; Business Monitor International
  • 23. 3. Market: Significant Income Stratification Trends across India
    Wealth Bands Emerging across Country
    India Per Capita GDP
    (USD, PPP-Adjusted)
    Per Capita GDP
    (USD, PPP-Adjusted)
    Jammu/Kashmir
    Himachal Pradesh
    Uttarakhand
    Punjab
    Haryana
    Sikkim
    Arunachal Pradesh
    Uttar Pradesh
    Rajasthan
    Assam
    New Delhi
    Bihar
    Meghalaya
    Nagaland
    Jharkhand
    Tripura
    Gujarat
    West Bengal
    Madhya Pradesh
    Manipur
    Chhattisgarh
    Mizoram
    Orissa
    Maharashtra
    Andhra Pradesh
    Goa
    Karnataka
    Tamil Nadu
    Kerala
    Source: Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation: CIA World Factbook; Exolus Research
  • 24. 4. Production: … but can India’s Infrastructure Support Manufacturing?
    India’s Major Investment in Transportation Infrastructure
    Golden Quadrilateral
    North-South Corridor
    East-WestCorridor
    A-Cities – Highest Population and FDI
    Srinagar
    Jammu
    Pathankot
    Ludhiana
    Chandigarh
    New Delhi
    Jaipur
    Agra
    Guwahati
    Lucknow
    Gwalior
    Kanpur
    Allahabad
    Kota
    Varanasi
    Kota
    Udaipur
    Silchar
    Gandhinagar
    Ahmedabad
    Rajkot
    Vadodara
    Kolkata
    Porbandar
    Surat
    Baleshwar
    Nagpur
    Cuttack
    Mumbai
    Bhubaneshwar
    Pune
    Hyderabad
    Vishakapatnam
    Vijayawada
    Chennai
    Bangalore
    Coimbatore
    Kochi
    Madurai
    Source: Exolus Research
  • 25. 4. Production: India FDI Soars through Crisis, Strong Vote of Confidence
    FDI has Spiked in India … Sustained through Global Economic Crisis
    Foreign Direct Investment Inflows (1990 – 2010)
    USD Billion
    Source: World Bank Database
  • 26. 4. Production: Explosive Automotive Production Deployment to India
    Automotive Production Clusters
    Cities within cluster:
    New Delhi, Gurgaon, Noida, Ghaziabad, Ludhiana, Haridwar
    A-Cities – Highest Population and FDI
    Srinagar
    Jammu
    Pathankot
    Ludhiana
    Chandigarh
    New Delhi
    Cities within cluster: Baroda, Halol, Mumbai, Pune, Nasik, Aurangabad
    Jaipur
    Agra
    Guwahati
    Lucknow
    Gwalior
    Kanpur
    Allahabad
    Kota
    Varanasi
    Udaipur
    Silchar
    Gandhinagar
    Ahmedabad
    Cities within cluster: Kolkata
    Rajkot
    Vadodara
    Kolkata
    Porbandar
    Surat
    Baleshwar
    Nagpur
    Cuttack
    Mumbai
    Bhubaneshwar
    Pune
    Hyderabad
    Cities within cluster: Bangalore, Chennai, Hosur
    Vishakapatnam
    Vijayawada
    Mangalore
    Chennai
    Bangalore
    Coimbatore
    Kochi
    Madurai
    Sources: All Publically Available Information, Company Websites
  • 27. 4. Production: Big Pharma Production Deploying to India
    Biotechnology and Biopharmaceutical Production Clusters
    A-Cities – Highest Population and FDI
    Srinagar
    Jammu
    Pathankot
    Ludhiana
    Chandigarh
    New Delhi
    Jaipur
    Agra
    Guwahati
    Lucknow
    Gwalior
    Kanpur
    Allahabad
    Kota
    Varanasi
    Udaipur
    Silchar
    Gandhinagar
    Ahmedabad
    Rajkot
    Vadodara
    Kolkata
    Porbandar
    Surat
    Baleshwar
    Nagpur
    Cities within cluster: Bangalore, Chennai
    Cities within cluster: Goa, Mumbai,
    daman, Nasik, Thane, Aurangabad
    Cities within cluster: Baroda, Ankleshwar
    Ahmedabad,
    Cities within cluster: Manesar, Jammu, Baddi, Pantnagar
    Cuttack
    Mumbai
    Bhubaneshwar
    Pune
    Hyderabad
    Vishakapatnam
    Vijayawada
    Mangalore
    Chennai
    Bangalore
    Coimbatore
    Kochi
    Madurai
    Sources: All Publically Available Information, Company Websites
  • 28. 4. Production: Technology Production Deploying to India
    Technology Hardware Production Clusters
    A-Cities – Highest Population and FDI
    Cities within cluster:
    Kolkata
    Srinagar
    Cities within cluster: Bangalore, Chennai
    Jammu
    Cities within cluster: Baddi, Mansear
    Pathankot
    Ludhiana
    Chandigarh
    New Delhi
    Jaipur
    Agra
    Guwahati
    Lucknow
    Gwalior
    Kanpur
    Allahabad
    Kota
    Varanasi
    Udaipur
    Silchar
    Gandhinagar
    Ahmedabad
    Rajkot
    Vadodara
    Kolkata
    Porbandar
    Surat
    Baleshwar
    Nagpur
    Cities within cluster: Pune, Hyderabad
    Cuttack
    Mumbai
    Bhubaneshwar
    Pune
    Hyderabad
    Vishakapatnam
    Vijayawada
    Mangalore
    Chennai
    Bangalore
    Coimbatore
    Kochi
    Madurai
    Sources: All Publically Available Information, Company Websites
  • 29. Future: Where are Pareto-Optimal Market/Resource/Innovation Envelopes?
    Intersection of Wealth + Production Clusters + R&D Hubs + A-Cities
    Per Capita GDP
    (USD, PPP-Adjusted)
    Per Capita GDP
    (USD, PPP-Adjusted)
    A-Cities – Highest Population and FDI
    Jammu / Kashmir
    Himachal Pradesh
    Uttarakhand
    Punjab
    Arunachal Pradesh
    Haryana
    New Delhi
    Sikkim
    Noida
    Gurgaon
    Rajasthan
    Assam
    Uttar Pradesh
    Nagaland
    Innovation Hub
    Bihar
    Manipur
    Meghalaya
    Production Cluster
    Jharkhand
    Tripura
    Gujarat
    Mizoram
    Madhya Pradesh
    West Bengal
    Chhattisgarh
    Orissa
    Maharashtra
    Andhra Pradesh
    Goa
    Karnataka
    Tamil Nadu
    Kerala
    Source: Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation: CIA World Factbook; Exolus Research
  • 30. India’s Economic Health
  • 31. Senior Executives Select India as Attractive Destination
    India Top-3 Investment Destination in World
    Top 14 Most Attractive Destinations for Future Investment (2009 – 2011)
    %
    Percent of Responses
    Source: World Investment Prospects 2009 - 2011
  • 32. India Economic Outlook: Large Forex Reserves, Healthy Banking System
    World’s 7th Largest Forex Reserves … Low Non-Performance Loan … Healthy CAGR
    • India Holds The World’s 7th Largest Foreign Exchange Reserves: USD 316 billion
    • 33. In 2011 the Central Bank has accumulated over USD 316 billion in foreign reserves, from USD 38 billions in year 2000 at CAGR 23.6%.
    • 34. The accumulation of large external surplus means financial system enjoys abundant liquidity.
    • 35. Low Bank Non-Performing Loans to Total Gross Loans
    • 36. Bank non-performing loans decreased to 2% in 2010, from 13% in 2000.
    • 37. Robust Growth in India’s Banking System
    • 38. Commercial bank deposits in India increased at CARG 18.5% from 2001 to 2009.
    • 39. Commercial bank credit in India grew at CARG at 23% from 2001 to 2009
    Source: RBI
  • 40. For a Comparative Perspective with the other BRIC Countries Please Refer to the Following Research Reports
    Found on Slideshare @
    http://www.slideshare.net/contest/worlds-best-presentation-contest-2010/entries
    http://www.slideshare.net/Exolus/brazil-2020-what-will-brazil-look-like-in-the-future
    http://www.slideshare.net/Exolus/russia-2020-what-will-russia-look-like-in-the-future
    Download Reports @
    www.exolus.com/en/knowledge/research.html
    Russia 2020
    Brazil 2020
    China 2020
  • 41. Global Expansion Strategy & Cross-Border Investment Execution (Greenfield, M&A, Joint Ventures, Outsourcing)
    About Exolus: Exolus is a hybrid management consulting and transaction advisory firm. We work with management teams in the development of their global expansion strategies, across the range of investment formats: Greenfield, M&A, Joint Ventures and Outsourcing. As well, we deploy against global strategies by providing program management across all phases of cross-border investment projects, from candidate searches and evaluation, through investment structuring and negotiations.
    The founders of Exolushave spent the past two decades in the global service space and have direct experience operating in nearly all of the major investment destinations in the world (40+ countries). The team has served clients of all sizes, both public and private, on projects that ranged in investment size from USD10 million to greater than USD1 billion. We have served clients across all of the following industry segments: Life Sciences, Manufacturing, Automotive, Technology, Retail, Consumer Business, Real Estate, Public Sector.
    Follow Exolus at: www.exolus.com
    Need Further Information: info@exolus.com
    Want Copies of our Reports: www.exolus.com/en/knowledge/research.html
  • 42. Disclaimer
    In writing we benefit from standing on the shoulders of others and, in the process, we strive to make our own contributions to the market of ideas. As well, we are always tremendously grateful for the many, often selfless, contributions that are availed in the process.
    The opinions represented herein were prepared for information purposes only, at the time of publication. The information represented herein is believed to be reliable, at the time of publication, and was obtained by various public sources also believed to be reliable. The opinions were considered to be accurate at the point of creation, and further, any views, forecasts, or estimates contained herein may be subject to change at anytime without notice. The opinions expressed or implied herein may not be the opinions of the author, also Exolus, or any associated affiliates.
    This report and the information contained herein collectively, is not offered as, and should not be regarded as, used or relied upon as advice on any matter. It shall not constitute or be construed as a recommendation or solicitation on behalf of the author, and no legal commitment or obligation shall arise by reason of this document. Thus, the reader shall make an independent assessment of opinion’s stated herein that shall not be considered a substitute for obtaining advise from the readers’ advisors.
    The author shall not accept responsibility, express or implied, with regards to the accuracy and completeness of the information herein, and the author shall not be liable whatsoever and howsoever arising in connection to this publication. The author shall not accept, and hereby disclaim, all responsibility and liability to all persons, entities, or organizations for all consequences arising out of any use or reliance on the whole or any part of this publication.
    This publication should not be reproduced or distributed without the author’s consent and is not intended for distribution in any jurisdiction in which this would be prohibited.
  • 43. Copyright © 2011 Exolus. All rights reserved.

×