India 2020: What India will Look Like in the Future

Preface: What Does India Look Like from Space? At Night?
Why?
Source: NASA (United States – National Aeronautics and Space Administration)

INTRODUCTION: India Structural Framework and Forward Trends . . .

The FUTURE (2020): World Bank Projects India as #3 Economy in World
GDP* PPP-adjusted
2009 GDP*
France
EU-27
UK
6,4 trillionsde $
3,6 trillionsde $
US
Germany
Japan
India
Japan
China
$14.2 tr
$4.1 tr
$3.8 tr
$9.1 tr
$14.1 tr
2020 GDP*
GDP* PPP-adjusted
France
UK
EU-27
China
US
Germany
India
Japan
$28.8 tr
$30.0 tr
$13.4 tr
$6.8 tr
$29.6 tr
Source: World Bank

India’s Middle Class: 45 million (2010) … 100 million (2025)
Wealth Trend: Forward Trend in Growing Middle Class
Middle Class Income Bands for Urban Household
Urban Household Income
( US $ - PPP - Adjusted )
Global >= US$ 22,158
Upper Middle Class >= US$ 11,079 - 22,158
Urban Population (millions)
Lower Middle Class >= US$ 4,431 – 11,079
Poor <= US$ 4,431
Upper Middle Class
Lower Middle Class
Sources: Urbanization Rates, Population based on UN, World Urbanization Prospects 2007; MGI Consumer Demand 2008

Urbanization Trend: Forward Trend in Mass Migration into Cities
India’s Urban Population: 340 million (2010) … 465 million (2020)
India’s Urban Population Growth
1.5 billion
1.3 billion
1.2 billion
1.04billion
Rural Population (million)
0.86 billion
Urban Population (million)
Urbanization
Source: World Urbanization Prospects 2007

Infrastructure Trend: Can New Infrastructure Catalyze R&D & Manufacturing?
Large-Scale Transportation Upgrades Catalyze Full Range of Investments
Golden Quadrilateral
North-South Corridor
East-WestCorridor
Srinagar
Jammu
Pathankot
Ludhiana
Chandigarh
New Delhi
Jaipur
Agra
Guwahati
Lucknow
Gwalior
Kanpur
Allahabad
Kota
Varanasi
Udaipur
Silchar
Gandhinagar
Ahmedabad
Rajkot
Vadodara
Kolkata
Porbandar
Surat
Baleshwar
Nagpur
Cuttack
Mumbai
Bhubaneshwar
Pune
Hyderabad
Vishakapatnam
Vijayawada
Chennai
Bangalore
Coimbatore
Kochi
Madurai
Source: Exolus Research

Framework: Resulting A-Cities (Highest Population / Foreign Investment)
India’s Strengthening A-Cities
East-WestCorridor
A-Cities – Highest Population and FDI
Srinagar
Jammu
Pathankot
Ludhiana
Chandigarh
New Delhi
Jaipur
Agra
Guwahati
Lucknow
Gwalior
Kanpur
Allahabad
Kota
Varanasi
Udaipur
Silchar
Gandhinagar
Ahmedabad
Rajkot
Vadodara
Kolkata
Porbandar
Surat
Baleshwar
Nagpur
Cuttack
Mumbai
Bhubaneshwar
Pune
Hyderabad
Vishakapatnam
Vijayawada
Chennai
Bangalore
Coimbatore
Kochi
Madurai

Corporate Trends: Structural Optimization – Innovation, Markets, Production

The Past: OffshoringNon-CoreBusiness Processes to India
Human Resources … Finance & Accounting … Procurement … IT
3. Markets
2. Knowledge
REVENUE
R&D
INNOVATION
Sales
Engineering
IT HR
Service
1. BPO/ITO
Manufacturing
F&A Procure
Distribution
Sourcing
Sales
Production /Assembly
R&D
COST
Back Office BPO/ITO
4. Resources
DRIVING Shareholder Value

1. BPO/ITO: India Global Leader in BPO / ITO
Success in BPO Leads to Oversubscription of Key Cities
Leading BPO Cities
Next Tier BPO Cities
Chandigarh
Delhi
Noida
Faridabad
Lucknow
Gurgaon
Jaipur
Ahmedabad
Vadodara
Indore
Kolkata
Nagpur
Bhubaneswar
Mumbai
Visakhapatnam
Pune
Hyderabad
Bangalore
Mangalore
Chennai
Coimbatore
Tiruchirappalli
Kochi
Madurai
Trivandrum
Source: NASSCOM

1. BPO/ITO: … Explosive Growth of BPO and ITO Projected through 2020
IT-BPO Growth Rate @ 11.9% CAGR
India IT-BPO Projected Growth (2010 – 2020F)
Export
Domestic
100% Increase
USD Billion
96 bn
88 bn
81 bn
73 bn
Source: NASSCOM

1. BPO/ITO: … and Drives Emergence of 25 New Cities for BPO
New 2nd and 3rd Cities roughly 28% Cheaper than 1st Tier Cities
Leading BPO Cities
Next Tier BPO cities
Srinagar
Follower Cities
Shimla
Ludhiana
Aspirant Cities
Chandigarh
Dehradun
Delhi
Noida
Gangtok
Faridabad
Lucknow
Gurgaon
Guwahati
Jaipur
Kanpur
Patna
Siliguri
Gwalior
Varanasi
Allahabad
Ahmedabad
Bhopal
Ranchi
Durgapur
Vadodara
Indore
Kolkata
Surat
Nagpur
Raipur
Bhubaneswar
Nashik
Aurangabad
Mumbai
Visakhapatnam
Pune
Hyderabad
Vijayawada
Goa
Hubli-Dharwad
Bangalore
Mangalore
Chennai
Pondicherry
Mysore
Salem
Coimbatore
Tiruchirappalli
Kochi
Madurai
Trivandrum
Source: NASSCOM

The Transition: Offshoringnow up Value Chain to Core Business Processes
Research & Development … Sales / Marketing … Production / Manufacturing
3. Markets
2. Knowledge
REVENUE
R&D
INNOVATION
Sales
Engineering
IT HR
Service
Manufacturing
F&A Procure
Distribution
Sourcing
Sales
R&D
COST
Back Office BPO/ITO
4. Resources

The Future: … and Outsourcing Core Processes to 3rd Party Providers
Contract Outsourcing: R&D (CRO/KPO) … Sales (CSO) … Manufacturing (CMO)
3. Markets
2. Knowledge
CSO
R&D
CRO/KPO
Sales
Engineering
IT HR
Service
Virtually Integrated Model
CMO
F&A Procure
Distribution
Sourcing
CSO
CRO/KPO
CMO
Back Office BPO/ITO
4. Resources

2. Innovation: Big Pharma Deploying Upstream R&D Functions to India
Evolving Biopharmaceutical Innovation Clusters
Jammu / Kashmir
Himachal Pradesh
Punjab
Uttarakhand
Haryana
Arunachal Pradesh
New Delhi
New Delhi
Sikkim
Uttar Pradesh
Gurgaon
Rajasthan
Assam
Meghalaya
Bihar
Manipur
Tripura
Jharkhand
Mizoram
Madhya Pradesh
Gujarat
West Bengal
Kolkata
Chhattisgarh
Orissa
Maharashtra
Mumbai
Pune
Hyderabad
Andhra Pradesh
Goa
Karnataka
Bangalore
Tamil Nadu
Kerala
Source: Centre for International Trade in Technology of IIFT, Companies Website

2. Innovation: Technology Deploying Upstream R&D Functions to India
Evolving Technology Innovation Clusters
Jammu / Kashmir
Himachal Pradesh
Punjab
Uttarakhand
Haryana
Arunachal Pradesh
New Delhi
Sikkim
Noida
Rajasthan
Assam
Uttar Pradesh
Meghalaya
Bihar
Tripura
Jharkhand
Mizoram
Madhya Pradesh
Gujarat
West Bengal
Kolkata
Chhattisgarh
Maharashtra
Pune
Hyderabad
Andhra Pradesh
Karnataka
Bangalore
Tamil Nadu
Kerala

2. Innovation: Automotive Deploying Upstream R&D Functions to India
Evolving Automotive Innovation Clusters
Jammu / Kashmir
Himachal Pradesh
Punjab
Uttarakhand
Haryana
Arunachal Pradesh
New Delhi
Sikkim
Rajasthan
Assam
Uttar Pradesh
Meghalaya
Bihar
Tripura
Jharkhand
Mizoram
Madhya Pradesh
Gujarat
West Bengal
Kolkata
Chhattisgarh
Maharashtra
Mumbai
Hyderabad
Andhra Pradesh
Karnataka
Bangalore
Chennai
Tamil Nadu
Kerala

2. Innovation: Chemical-Based Deploying Upstream R&D Functions to India
Evolving Chemical Innovation Clusters
Jammu / Kashmir
Himachal Pradesh
Punjab
Uttarakhand
Haryana
Arunachal Pradesh
New Delhi
Sikkim
Gurgaon
Rajasthan
Assam
Uttar Pradesh
Meghalaya
Bihar
Tripura
Jharkhand
Mizoram
Madhya Pradesh
Gujarat
West Bengal
Kolkata
Chhattisgarh
Vadodara
Maharashtra
Mumbai
Pune
Hyderabad
Andhra Pradesh
Karnataka
Bangalore
Tamil Nadu
Kerala

3. Market/Revenues: Car Sales Proxy for Directional Market Sizing?
Car Penetration Highest in India Risking Steeply
India
Car Penetration in BRIC (units per 1,000 people)
Russia
Car Penetration in India (units per 1,000 people)
Brazil
China
Sources: Association of European Business; Autostat;; Other

USD28 billion Market by 2015 … 9th in World
3. Market: India Projected to be World’s 9th Largest Pharma Market by 2015
Pharmaceutical Market Size Country Ranking (USD billion)
Sources: IMS; GSK, “Assessment of Opportunity for Pharmaceutical Manufacturers in Emerging Markets” JMCP; Monitor Analysis; Exolus

3. Market: High Spending Continues through Global Economic Crisis
Sales Growing at 8.7% CAGR
Retail Sales (2003 – 2015F)
USD Billion
CAGR = 8.7%
Source: EIU; Business Monitor International

3. Market: Significant Income Stratification Trends across India
Wealth Bands Emerging across Country
India Per Capita GDP
(USD, PPP-Adjusted)
Per Capita GDP
(USD, PPP-Adjusted)
Jammu/Kashmir
Himachal Pradesh
Uttarakhand
Punjab
Haryana
Sikkim
Arunachal Pradesh
Uttar Pradesh
Rajasthan
Assam
New Delhi
Bihar
Meghalaya
Nagaland
Jharkhand
Tripura
Gujarat
West Bengal
Madhya Pradesh
Manipur
Chhattisgarh
Mizoram
Orissa
Maharashtra
Andhra Pradesh
Goa
Karnataka
Tamil Nadu
Kerala
Source: Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation: CIA World Factbook; Exolus Research

4. Production: … but can India’s Infrastructure Support Manufacturing?
India’s Major Investment in Transportation Infrastructure
East-WestCorridor
Srinagar
Jammu
Pathankot
Ludhiana
Chandigarh
New Delhi
Jaipur
Agra
Guwahati
Lucknow
Gwalior
Kanpur
Allahabad
Kota
Varanasi
Kota
Udaipur
Silchar
Gandhinagar
Ahmedabad
Rajkot
Vadodara
Kolkata
Porbandar
Surat
Baleshwar
Nagpur
Cuttack
Mumbai
Bhubaneshwar
Pune
Hyderabad
Vishakapatnam
Vijayawada
Chennai
Bangalore
Coimbatore
Kochi
Madurai

4. Production: India FDI Soars through Crisis, Strong Vote of Confidence
FDI has Spiked in India … Sustained through Global Economic Crisis
Foreign Direct Investment Inflows (1990 – 2010)
USD Billion
Source: World Bank Database

4. Production: Explosive Automotive Production Deployment to India
Automotive Production Clusters
Cities within cluster:
New Delhi, Gurgaon, Noida, Ghaziabad, Ludhiana, Haridwar
Srinagar
Jammu
Pathankot
Ludhiana
Chandigarh
New Delhi
Cities within cluster: Baroda, Halol, Mumbai, Pune, Nasik, Aurangabad
Jaipur
Agra
Guwahati
Lucknow
Gwalior
Kanpur
Allahabad
Kota
Varanasi
Udaipur
Silchar
Gandhinagar
Ahmedabad
Cities within cluster: Kolkata
Rajkot
Vadodara
Kolkata
Porbandar
Surat
Baleshwar
Nagpur
Cuttack
Mumbai
Bhubaneshwar
Pune
Hyderabad
Cities within cluster: Bangalore, Chennai, Hosur
Vishakapatnam
Vijayawada
Mangalore
Chennai
Bangalore
Coimbatore
Kochi
Madurai
Sources: All Publically Available Information, Company Websites

4. Production: Big Pharma Production Deploying to India
Biotechnology and Biopharmaceutical Production Clusters
Srinagar
Jammu
Pathankot
Ludhiana
Chandigarh
New Delhi
Jaipur
Agra
Guwahati
Lucknow
Gwalior
Kanpur
Allahabad
Kota
Varanasi
Udaipur
Silchar
Gandhinagar
Ahmedabad
Rajkot
Vadodara
Kolkata
Porbandar
Surat
Baleshwar
Nagpur
Cities within cluster: Bangalore, Chennai
Cities within cluster: Goa, Mumbai,
daman, Nasik, Thane, Aurangabad
Cities within cluster: Baroda, Ankleshwar
Ahmedabad,
Cities within cluster: Manesar, Jammu, Baddi, Pantnagar
Cuttack
Mumbai
Bhubaneshwar
Pune
Hyderabad
Vishakapatnam
Vijayawada
Mangalore
Chennai
Bangalore
Coimbatore
Kochi
Madurai

4. Production: Technology Production Deploying to India
Technology Hardware Production Clusters
Cities within cluster:
Kolkata
Srinagar
Cities within cluster: Bangalore, Chennai
Jammu
Cities within cluster: Baddi, Mansear
Pathankot
Ludhiana
Chandigarh
New Delhi
Jaipur
Agra
Guwahati
Lucknow
Gwalior
Kanpur
Allahabad
Kota
Varanasi
Udaipur
Silchar
Gandhinagar
Ahmedabad
Rajkot
Vadodara
Kolkata
Porbandar
Surat
Baleshwar
Nagpur
Cities within cluster: Pune, Hyderabad
Cuttack
Mumbai
Bhubaneshwar
Pune
Hyderabad
Vishakapatnam
Vijayawada
Mangalore
Chennai
Bangalore
Coimbatore
Kochi
Madurai

Future: Where are Pareto-Optimal Market/Resource/Innovation Envelopes?
Intersection of Wealth + Production Clusters + R&D Hubs + A-Cities
Per Capita GDP
(USD, PPP-Adjusted)
Per Capita GDP
(USD, PPP-Adjusted)
Jammu / Kashmir
Himachal Pradesh
Uttarakhand
Punjab
Arunachal Pradesh
Haryana
New Delhi
Sikkim
Noida
Gurgaon
Rajasthan
Assam
Uttar Pradesh
Nagaland
Innovation Hub
Bihar
Manipur
Meghalaya
Production Cluster
Jharkhand
Tripura
Gujarat
Mizoram
Madhya Pradesh
West Bengal
Chhattisgarh
Orissa
Maharashtra
Andhra Pradesh
Goa
Karnataka
Tamil Nadu
Kerala
Source: Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation: CIA World Factbook; Exolus Research

India’s Economic Health

Senior Executives Select India as Attractive Destination
India Top-3 Investment Destination in World
Top 14 Most Attractive Destinations for Future Investment (2009 – 2011)
%
Percent of Responses
Source: World Investment Prospects 2009 - 2011

India Economic Outlook: Large Forex Reserves, Healthy Banking System
World’s 7th Largest Forex Reserves … Low Non-Performance Loan … Healthy CAGR
India Holds The World’s 7th Largest Foreign Exchange Reserves: USD 316 billion
In 2011 the Central Bank has accumulated over USD 316 billion in foreign reserves, from USD 38 billions in year 2000 at CAGR 23.6%.
The accumulation of large external surplus means financial system enjoys abundant liquidity.
Low Bank Non-Performing Loans to Total Gross Loans
Bank non-performing loans decreased to 2% in 2010, from 13% in 2000.
Robust Growth in India’s Banking System
Commercial bank deposits in India increased at CARG 18.5% from 2001 to 2009.
Commercial bank credit in India grew at CARG at 23% from 2001 to 2009
Source: RBI

For a Comparative Perspective with the other BRIC Countries Please Refer to the Following Research Reports
Found on Slideshare @
http://www.slideshare.net/contest/worlds-best-presentation-contest-2010/entries
http://www.slideshare.net/Exolus/brazil-2020-what-will-brazil-look-like-in-the-future
http://www.slideshare.net/Exolus/russia-2020-what-will-russia-look-like-in-the-future
Download Reports @
www.exolus.com/en/knowledge/research.html
Russia 2020
Brazil 2020
China 2020

Global Expansion Strategy & Cross-Border Investment Execution (Greenfield, M&A, Joint Ventures, Outsourcing)
About Exolus: Exolus is a hybrid management consulting and transaction advisory firm. We work with management teams in the development of their global expansion strategies, across the range of investment formats: Greenfield, M&A, Joint Ventures and Outsourcing. As well, we deploy against global strategies by providing program management across all phases of cross-border investment projects, from candidate searches and evaluation, through investment structuring and negotiations.
The founders of Exolushave spent the past two decades in the global service space and have direct experience operating in nearly all of the major investment destinations in the world (40+ countries). The team has served clients of all sizes, both public and private, on projects that ranged in investment size from USD10 million to greater than USD1 billion. We have served clients across all of the following industry segments: Life Sciences, Manufacturing, Automotive, Technology, Retail, Consumer Business, Real Estate, Public Sector.
Follow Exolus at: www.exolus.com
Need Further Information: info@exolus.com
Want Copies of our Reports: www.exolus.com/en/knowledge/research.html

Disclaimer
In writing we benefit from standing on the shoulders of others and, in the process, we strive to make our own contributions to the market of ideas. As well, we are always tremendously grateful for the many, often selfless, contributions that are availed in the process.
The opinions represented herein were prepared for information purposes only, at the time of publication. The information represented herein is believed to be reliable, at the time of publication, and was obtained by various public sources also believed to be reliable. The opinions were considered to be accurate at the point of creation, and further, any views, forecasts, or estimates contained herein may be subject to change at anytime without notice. The opinions expressed or implied herein may not be the opinions of the author, also Exolus, or any associated affiliates.
This report and the information contained herein collectively, is not offered as, and should not be regarded as, used or relied upon as advice on any matter. It shall not constitute or be construed as a recommendation or solicitation on behalf of the author, and no legal commitment or obligation shall arise by reason of this document. Thus, the reader shall make an independent assessment of opinion’s stated herein that shall not be considered a substitute for obtaining advise from the readers’ advisors.
The author shall not accept responsibility, express or implied, with regards to the accuracy and completeness of the information herein, and the author shall not be liable whatsoever and howsoever arising in connection to this publication. The author shall not accept, and hereby disclaim, all responsibility and liability to all persons, entities, or organizations for all consequences arising out of any use or reliance on the whole or any part of this publication.
This publication should not be reproduced or distributed without the author’s consent and is not intended for distribution in any jurisdiction in which this would be prohibited.

http://www.indiaetfs.com	10
http://etfs.etowndesign.com	9
http://www.twylah.com	3
http://www.onlydoo.com	2
http://businessoz.com	1
http://localhost	1
http://psihologie.weebly.com	1
http://flow3.typo3.org	1
http://www.slideshare.net	1
http://1184284826.nvmodules.netvibes.com	1
http://test.indiaetfs.com	1

India 2020: What India will Look Like in the Future

by France Houdard on Apr 29, 2011

Accessibility

Categories

Tags

Upload Details

Usage Rights

11 Embeds 31

Statistics

India 2020: What India will Look Like in the Future — Presentation Transcript