India 2020: What India will Look Like in the Future

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India 2020: What India will Look Like in the Future

Today’s Corporate Trends – Where is India beginning to steal China’s Thunder?

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India 2020: What India will Look Like in the Future

  1. Preface: What Does India Look Like from Space? At Night?<br />Why?<br />Source: NASA (United States – National Aeronautics and Space Administration)<br />
  2. INTRODUCTION: India Structural Framework and Forward Trends . . .<br />
  3. The FUTURE (2020): World Bank Projects India as #3 Economy in World<br />GDP* PPP-adjusted<br />2009 GDP*<br />France <br />EU-27<br /> UK <br />6,4 trillionsde $<br />3,6 trillionsde $<br />US <br />Germany<br />Japan<br />India <br /> Japan<br />China <br />$14.2 tr<br />$4.1 tr<br />$3.8 tr<br />$9.1 tr<br />$14.1 tr<br />2020 GDP*<br />GDP* PPP-adjusted<br />France <br /> UK <br />EU-27<br />China<br />US <br />Germany<br />India <br />Japan<br />$28.8 tr<br />$30.0 tr<br />$13.4 tr<br />$6.8 tr<br />$29.6 tr<br />Source: World Bank<br />
  4. India’s Middle Class: 45 million (2010) … 100 million (2025) <br />Wealth Trend: Forward Trend in Growing Middle Class<br />Middle Class Income Bands for Urban Household <br />Urban Household Income<br /> ( US $ - PPP - Adjusted ) <br />Global >= US$ 22,158 <br />Upper Middle Class >= US$ 11,079 - 22,158 <br />Urban Population (millions)<br />Lower Middle Class >= US$ 4,431 – 11,079 <br />Poor <= US$ 4,431<br />Upper Middle Class<br />Lower Middle Class<br />Sources: Urbanization Rates, Population based on UN, World Urbanization Prospects 2007; MGI Consumer Demand 2008<br />
  5. Urbanization Trend: Forward Trend in Mass Migration into Cities<br />India’s Urban Population: 340 million (2010) … 465 million (2020) <br />India’s Urban Population Growth<br />1.5 billion<br />1.3 billion<br />1.2 billion<br />1.04billion<br />Rural Population (million)<br />0.86 billion<br />Urban Population (million)<br />Urbanization<br />Source: World Urbanization Prospects 2007<br />
  6. Infrastructure Trend: Can New Infrastructure Catalyze R&D & Manufacturing?<br />Large-Scale Transportation Upgrades Catalyze Full Range of Investments<br />Golden Quadrilateral<br />North-South Corridor<br />East-WestCorridor<br />Srinagar<br />Jammu<br />Pathankot<br />Ludhiana<br />Chandigarh<br />New Delhi<br />Jaipur<br />Agra<br />Guwahati<br />Lucknow<br />Gwalior<br />Kanpur<br />Allahabad<br />Kota<br />Varanasi<br />Udaipur<br />Silchar<br />Gandhinagar<br />Ahmedabad<br />Rajkot<br />Vadodara<br />Kolkata<br />Porbandar<br />Surat<br />Baleshwar<br />Nagpur<br />Cuttack<br />Mumbai<br />Bhubaneshwar<br />Pune<br />Hyderabad<br />Vishakapatnam<br />Vijayawada<br />Chennai<br />Bangalore<br />Coimbatore<br />Kochi<br />Madurai<br />Source: Exolus Research<br />
  7. Framework: Resulting A-Cities (Highest Population / Foreign Investment)<br />India’s Strengthening A-Cities<br />Golden Quadrilateral<br />North-South Corridor<br />East-WestCorridor<br />A-Cities – Highest Population and FDI<br />Srinagar<br />Jammu<br />Pathankot<br />Ludhiana<br />Chandigarh<br />New Delhi<br />Jaipur<br />Agra<br />Guwahati<br />Lucknow<br />Gwalior<br />Kanpur<br />Allahabad<br />Kota<br />Varanasi<br />Udaipur<br />Silchar<br />Gandhinagar<br />Ahmedabad<br />Rajkot<br />Vadodara<br />Kolkata<br />Porbandar<br />Surat<br />Baleshwar<br />Nagpur<br />Cuttack<br />Mumbai<br />Bhubaneshwar<br />Pune<br />Hyderabad<br />Vishakapatnam<br />Vijayawada<br />Chennai<br />Bangalore<br />Coimbatore<br />Kochi<br />Madurai<br />Source: Exolus Research<br />
  8. Corporate Trends: Structural Optimization – Innovation, Markets, Production<br />
  9. The Past: OffshoringNon-CoreBusiness Processes to India<br />Human Resources … Finance & Accounting … Procurement … IT<br />3. Markets<br />2. Knowledge<br />REVENUE<br />R&D<br />INNOVATION<br />Sales<br />Engineering<br />IT HR<br />Service<br />1. BPO/ITO<br />Manufacturing<br />F&A Procure<br />Distribution<br />Sourcing<br />Sales<br />Production /Assembly<br />R&D<br />COST<br />Back Office BPO/ITO<br />4. Resources<br />DRIVING Shareholder Value<br />
  10. 1. BPO/ITO: India Global Leader in BPO / ITO <br />Success in BPO Leads to Oversubscription of Key Cities <br />Leading BPO Cities<br />A-Cities – Highest Population and FDI<br />Next Tier BPO Cities<br />Chandigarh<br />Delhi<br />Noida<br />Faridabad<br />Lucknow<br />Gurgaon<br />Jaipur<br />Ahmedabad<br />Vadodara<br />Indore<br />Kolkata<br />Nagpur<br />Bhubaneswar<br />Mumbai<br />Visakhapatnam<br />Pune<br />Hyderabad<br />Bangalore<br />Mangalore<br />Chennai<br />Coimbatore<br />Tiruchirappalli<br />Kochi<br />Madurai<br />Trivandrum<br />Source: NASSCOM<br />
  11. 1. BPO/ITO: … Explosive Growth of BPO and ITO Projected through 2020<br />IT-BPO Growth Rate @ 11.9% CAGR<br />India IT-BPO Projected Growth (2010 – 2020F) <br />Export<br />Domestic<br />100% Increase<br />USD Billion<br />96 bn<br />88 bn<br />81 bn<br />73 bn<br />Source: NASSCOM<br />
  12. 1. BPO/ITO: … and Drives Emergence of 25 New Cities for BPO<br />New 2nd and 3rd Cities roughly 28% Cheaper than 1st Tier Cities<br />Leading BPO Cities<br />A-Cities – Highest Population and FDI<br />Next Tier BPO cities<br />Srinagar<br />Follower Cities<br />Shimla<br />Ludhiana<br />Aspirant Cities<br />Chandigarh<br />Dehradun<br />Delhi<br />Noida<br />Gangtok<br />Faridabad<br />Lucknow<br />Gurgaon<br />Guwahati<br />Jaipur<br />Kanpur<br />Patna<br />Siliguri<br />Gwalior<br />Varanasi<br />Allahabad<br />Ahmedabad<br />Bhopal<br />Ranchi<br />Durgapur<br />Vadodara<br />Indore<br />Kolkata<br />Surat<br />Nagpur<br />Raipur<br />Bhubaneswar<br />Nashik<br />Aurangabad<br />Mumbai<br />Visakhapatnam<br />Pune<br />Hyderabad<br />Vijayawada<br />Goa<br />Hubli-Dharwad<br />Bangalore<br />Mangalore<br />Chennai<br />Pondicherry<br />Mysore<br />Salem<br />Coimbatore<br />Tiruchirappalli<br />Kochi<br />Madurai<br />Trivandrum<br />Source: NASSCOM<br />
  13. The Transition: Offshoringnow up Value Chain to Core Business Processes<br />Research & Development … Sales / Marketing … Production / Manufacturing<br />3. Markets<br />2. Knowledge<br />REVENUE<br />R&D<br />INNOVATION<br />Sales<br />Engineering<br />IT HR<br />Service<br />Manufacturing<br />F&A Procure<br />Distribution<br />Sourcing<br />Sales <br />Production /Assembly<br />R&D<br />COST<br />Back Office BPO/ITO<br />4. Resources<br />DRIVING Shareholder Value<br />
  14. The Future: … and Outsourcing Core Processes to 3rd Party Providers<br />Contract Outsourcing: R&D (CRO/KPO) … Sales (CSO) … Manufacturing (CMO)<br />3. Markets<br />2. Knowledge<br />CSO<br />R&D<br />CRO/KPO<br />Sales<br />Engineering<br />IT HR<br />Service<br />Virtually Integrated Model<br />CMO<br />F&A Procure<br />Distribution<br />Sourcing<br />CSO<br />Production /Assembly<br />CRO/KPO<br />CMO<br />Back Office BPO/ITO<br />4. Resources<br />DRIVING Shareholder Value<br />
  15. 2. Innovation: Big Pharma Deploying Upstream R&D Functions to India<br />Evolving Biopharmaceutical Innovation Clusters<br />A-Cities – Highest Population and FDI<br />Jammu / Kashmir<br />Himachal Pradesh<br />Punjab<br />Uttarakhand<br />Haryana<br />Arunachal Pradesh<br />New Delhi<br />New Delhi<br />Sikkim<br />Uttar Pradesh<br />Gurgaon<br />Rajasthan<br />Assam<br />Meghalaya<br />Bihar<br />Manipur<br />Tripura<br />Jharkhand<br />Mizoram<br />Madhya Pradesh<br />Gujarat<br />West Bengal<br />Kolkata<br />Chhattisgarh<br />Orissa<br />Maharashtra<br />Mumbai<br />Pune<br />Hyderabad<br />Andhra Pradesh<br />Goa<br />Karnataka<br />Bangalore<br />Tamil Nadu<br />Kerala<br />Source: Centre for International Trade in Technology of IIFT, Companies Website<br />
  16. 2. Innovation: Technology Deploying Upstream R&D Functions to India<br />Evolving Technology Innovation Clusters<br />A-Cities – Highest Population and FDI<br />Jammu / Kashmir<br />Himachal Pradesh<br />Punjab<br />Uttarakhand<br />Haryana<br />Arunachal Pradesh<br />New Delhi<br />Sikkim<br />Noida<br />Rajasthan<br />Assam<br />Uttar Pradesh<br />Meghalaya<br />Bihar<br />Tripura<br />Jharkhand<br />Mizoram<br />Madhya Pradesh<br />Gujarat<br />West Bengal<br />Kolkata<br />Chhattisgarh<br />Maharashtra<br />Pune<br />Hyderabad<br />Andhra Pradesh<br />Karnataka<br />Bangalore<br />Tamil Nadu<br />Kerala<br />Source: Centre for International Trade in Technology of IIFT, Companies Website<br />
  17. 2. Innovation: Automotive Deploying Upstream R&D Functions to India<br />Evolving Automotive Innovation Clusters<br />A-Cities – Highest Population and FDI<br />Jammu / Kashmir<br />Himachal Pradesh<br />Punjab<br />Uttarakhand<br />Haryana<br />Arunachal Pradesh<br />New Delhi<br />Sikkim<br />Rajasthan<br />Assam<br />Uttar Pradesh<br />Meghalaya<br />Bihar<br />Tripura<br />Jharkhand<br />Mizoram<br />Madhya Pradesh<br />Gujarat<br />West Bengal<br />Kolkata<br />Chhattisgarh<br />Maharashtra<br />Mumbai<br />Hyderabad<br />Andhra Pradesh<br />Karnataka<br />Bangalore<br />Chennai<br />Tamil Nadu<br />Kerala<br />Source: Centre for International Trade in Technology of IIFT, Companies Website<br />
  18. 2. Innovation: Chemical-Based Deploying Upstream R&D Functions to India<br />Evolving Chemical Innovation Clusters<br />A-Cities – Highest Population and FDI<br />Jammu / Kashmir<br />Himachal Pradesh<br />Punjab<br />Uttarakhand<br />Haryana<br />Arunachal Pradesh<br />New Delhi<br />Sikkim<br />Gurgaon<br />Rajasthan<br />Assam<br />Uttar Pradesh<br />Meghalaya<br />Bihar<br />Tripura<br />Jharkhand<br />Mizoram<br />Madhya Pradesh<br />Gujarat<br />West Bengal<br />Kolkata<br />Chhattisgarh<br />Vadodara<br />Maharashtra<br />Mumbai<br />Pune<br />Hyderabad<br />Andhra Pradesh<br />Karnataka<br />Bangalore<br />Tamil Nadu<br />Kerala<br />Source: Centre for International Trade in Technology of IIFT, Companies Website<br />
  19. 3. Market/Revenues: Car Sales Proxy for Directional Market Sizing?<br />Car Penetration Highest in India Risking Steeply<br />India<br />Car Penetration in BRIC (units per 1,000 people)<br />Russia<br />Car Penetration in India (units per 1,000 people)<br />Brazil<br />China<br />Sources: Association of European Business; Autostat;; Other<br />
  20. USD28 billion Market by 2015 … 9th in World<br />3. Market: India Projected to be World’s 9th Largest Pharma Market by 2015<br />Pharmaceutical Market Size Country Ranking (USD billion)<br />Sources: IMS; GSK, “Assessment of Opportunity for Pharmaceutical Manufacturers in Emerging Markets” JMCP; Monitor Analysis; Exolus<br />
  21. 3. Market: High Spending Continues through Global Economic Crisis<br />Sales Growing at 8.7% CAGR<br />Retail Sales (2003 – 2015F) <br />USD Billion<br />CAGR = 8.7%<br />Source: EIU; Business Monitor International<br />
  22. 3. Market: Significant Income Stratification Trends across India<br />Wealth Bands Emerging across Country<br />India Per Capita GDP<br />(USD, PPP-Adjusted)<br />Per Capita GDP<br />(USD, PPP-Adjusted)<br />Jammu/Kashmir<br />Himachal Pradesh<br />Uttarakhand<br />Punjab<br />Haryana<br />Sikkim<br />Arunachal Pradesh<br />Uttar Pradesh<br />Rajasthan<br />Assam<br />New Delhi<br />Bihar<br />Meghalaya<br />Nagaland<br />Jharkhand<br />Tripura<br />Gujarat<br />West Bengal<br />Madhya Pradesh<br />Manipur<br />Chhattisgarh<br />Mizoram<br />Orissa<br />Maharashtra<br />Andhra Pradesh<br />Goa<br />Karnataka<br />Tamil Nadu<br />Kerala<br />Source: Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation: CIA World Factbook; Exolus Research<br />
  23. 4. Production: … but can India’s Infrastructure Support Manufacturing?<br />India’s Major Investment in Transportation Infrastructure<br />Golden Quadrilateral<br />North-South Corridor<br />East-WestCorridor<br />A-Cities – Highest Population and FDI<br />Srinagar<br />Jammu<br />Pathankot<br />Ludhiana<br />Chandigarh<br />New Delhi<br />Jaipur<br />Agra<br />Guwahati<br />Lucknow<br />Gwalior<br />Kanpur<br />Allahabad<br />Kota<br />Varanasi<br />Kota<br />Udaipur<br />Silchar<br />Gandhinagar<br />Ahmedabad<br />Rajkot<br />Vadodara<br />Kolkata<br />Porbandar<br />Surat<br />Baleshwar<br />Nagpur<br />Cuttack<br />Mumbai<br />Bhubaneshwar<br />Pune<br />Hyderabad<br />Vishakapatnam<br />Vijayawada<br />Chennai<br />Bangalore<br />Coimbatore<br />Kochi<br />Madurai<br />Source: Exolus Research<br />
  24. 4. Production: India FDI Soars through Crisis, Strong Vote of Confidence<br />FDI has Spiked in India … Sustained through Global Economic Crisis<br />Foreign Direct Investment Inflows (1990 – 2010) <br />USD Billion<br />Source: World Bank Database<br />
  25. 4. Production: Explosive Automotive Production Deployment to India<br />Automotive Production Clusters<br />Cities within cluster: <br />New Delhi, Gurgaon, Noida, Ghaziabad, Ludhiana, Haridwar<br />A-Cities – Highest Population and FDI<br />Srinagar<br />Jammu<br />Pathankot<br />Ludhiana<br />Chandigarh<br />New Delhi<br />Cities within cluster: Baroda, Halol, Mumbai, Pune, Nasik, Aurangabad<br />Jaipur<br />Agra<br />Guwahati<br />Lucknow<br />Gwalior<br />Kanpur<br />Allahabad<br />Kota<br />Varanasi<br />Udaipur<br />Silchar<br />Gandhinagar<br />Ahmedabad<br />Cities within cluster: Kolkata<br />Rajkot<br />Vadodara<br />Kolkata<br />Porbandar<br />Surat<br />Baleshwar<br />Nagpur<br />Cuttack<br />Mumbai<br />Bhubaneshwar<br />Pune<br />Hyderabad<br />Cities within cluster: Bangalore, Chennai, Hosur<br />Vishakapatnam<br />Vijayawada<br />Mangalore<br />Chennai<br />Bangalore<br />Coimbatore<br />Kochi<br />Madurai<br />Sources: All Publically Available Information, Company Websites<br />
  26. 4. Production: Big Pharma Production Deploying to India<br />Biotechnology and Biopharmaceutical Production Clusters<br />A-Cities – Highest Population and FDI<br />Srinagar<br />Jammu<br />Pathankot<br />Ludhiana<br />Chandigarh<br />New Delhi<br />Jaipur<br />Agra<br />Guwahati<br />Lucknow<br />Gwalior<br />Kanpur<br />Allahabad<br />Kota<br />Varanasi<br />Udaipur<br />Silchar<br />Gandhinagar<br />Ahmedabad<br />Rajkot<br />Vadodara<br />Kolkata<br />Porbandar<br />Surat<br />Baleshwar<br />Nagpur<br />Cities within cluster: Bangalore, Chennai<br />Cities within cluster: Goa, Mumbai, <br />daman, Nasik, Thane, Aurangabad<br />Cities within cluster: Baroda, Ankleshwar<br />Ahmedabad, <br />Cities within cluster: Manesar, Jammu, Baddi, Pantnagar<br />Cuttack<br />Mumbai<br />Bhubaneshwar<br />Pune<br />Hyderabad<br />Vishakapatnam<br />Vijayawada<br />Mangalore<br />Chennai<br />Bangalore<br />Coimbatore<br />Kochi<br />Madurai<br />Sources: All Publically Available Information, Company Websites<br />
  27. 4. Production: Technology Production Deploying to India<br />Technology Hardware Production Clusters<br />A-Cities – Highest Population and FDI<br />Cities within cluster: <br />Kolkata <br />Srinagar<br />Cities within cluster: Bangalore, Chennai<br />Jammu<br />Cities within cluster: Baddi, Mansear <br />Pathankot<br />Ludhiana<br />Chandigarh<br />New Delhi<br />Jaipur<br />Agra<br />Guwahati<br />Lucknow<br />Gwalior<br />Kanpur<br />Allahabad<br />Kota<br />Varanasi<br />Udaipur<br />Silchar<br />Gandhinagar<br />Ahmedabad<br />Rajkot<br />Vadodara<br />Kolkata<br />Porbandar<br />Surat<br />Baleshwar<br />Nagpur<br />Cities within cluster: Pune, Hyderabad<br />Cuttack<br />Mumbai<br />Bhubaneshwar<br />Pune<br />Hyderabad<br />Vishakapatnam<br />Vijayawada<br />Mangalore<br />Chennai<br />Bangalore<br />Coimbatore<br />Kochi<br />Madurai<br />Sources: All Publically Available Information, Company Websites<br />
  28. Future: Where are Pareto-Optimal Market/Resource/Innovation Envelopes?<br />Intersection of Wealth + Production Clusters + R&D Hubs + A-Cities<br />Per Capita GDP<br />(USD, PPP-Adjusted)<br />Per Capita GDP<br />(USD, PPP-Adjusted)<br />A-Cities – Highest Population and FDI<br />Jammu / Kashmir<br />Himachal Pradesh<br />Uttarakhand<br />Punjab<br />Arunachal Pradesh<br />Haryana<br />New Delhi<br />Sikkim<br />Noida<br />Gurgaon<br />Rajasthan<br />Assam<br />Uttar Pradesh<br />Nagaland<br />Innovation Hub<br />Bihar<br />Manipur<br />Meghalaya<br />Production Cluster<br />Jharkhand<br />Tripura<br />Gujarat<br />Mizoram<br />Madhya Pradesh<br />West Bengal<br />Chhattisgarh<br />Orissa<br />Maharashtra<br />Andhra Pradesh<br />Goa<br />Karnataka<br />Tamil Nadu<br />Kerala<br />Source: Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation: CIA World Factbook; Exolus Research<br />
  29. India’s Economic Health<br />
  30. Senior Executives Select India as Attractive Destination<br />India Top-3 Investment Destination in World<br />Top 14 Most Attractive Destinations for Future Investment (2009 – 2011)<br />% <br />Percent of Responses<br />Source: World Investment Prospects 2009 - 2011<br />
  31. India Economic Outlook: Large Forex Reserves, Healthy Banking System<br />World’s 7th Largest Forex Reserves … Low Non-Performance Loan … Healthy CAGR<br /><ul><li>India Holds The World’s 7th Largest Foreign Exchange Reserves: USD 316 billion
  32. In 2011 the Central Bank has accumulated over USD 316 billion in foreign reserves, from USD 38 billions in year 2000 at CAGR 23.6%.
  33. The accumulation of large external surplus means financial system enjoys abundant liquidity.
  34. Low Bank Non-Performing Loans to Total Gross Loans
  35. Bank non-performing loans decreased to 2% in 2010, from 13% in 2000.
  36. Robust Growth in India’s Banking System
  37. Commercial bank deposits in India increased at CARG 18.5% from 2001 to 2009.
  38. Commercial bank credit in India grew at CARG at 23% from 2001 to 2009 </li></ul>Source: RBI<br />
  39. For a Comparative Perspective with the other BRIC Countries Please Refer to the Following Research Reports<br />Found on Slideshare @<br />http://www.slideshare.net/contest/worlds-best-presentation-contest-2010/entries<br />http://www.slideshare.net/Exolus/brazil-2020-what-will-brazil-look-like-in-the-future<br />http://www.slideshare.net/Exolus/russia-2020-what-will-russia-look-like-in-the-future<br />Download Reports @<br />www.exolus.com/en/knowledge/research.html<br />Russia 2020<br />Brazil 2020<br />China 2020<br />
  40. Global Expansion Strategy & Cross-Border Investment Execution (Greenfield, M&A, Joint Ventures, Outsourcing)<br />About Exolus: Exolus is a hybrid management consulting and transaction advisory firm. We work with management teams in the development of their global expansion strategies, across the range of investment formats: Greenfield, M&A, Joint Ventures and Outsourcing. As well, we deploy against global strategies by providing program management across all phases of cross-border investment projects, from candidate searches and evaluation, through investment structuring and negotiations. <br />The founders of Exolushave spent the past two decades in the global service space and have direct experience operating in nearly all of the major investment destinations in the world (40+ countries). The team has served clients of all sizes, both public and private, on projects that ranged in investment size from USD10 million to greater than USD1 billion. We have served clients across all of the following industry segments: Life Sciences, Manufacturing, Automotive, Technology, Retail, Consumer Business, Real Estate, Public Sector.<br />Follow Exolus at: www.exolus.com<br />Need Further Information: info@exolus.com<br />Want Copies of our Reports: www.exolus.com/en/knowledge/research.html<br />
  41. Disclaimer<br />In writing we benefit from standing on the shoulders of others and, in the process, we strive to make our own contributions to the market of ideas. As well, we are always tremendously grateful for the many, often selfless, contributions that are availed in the process.<br />The opinions represented herein were prepared for information purposes only, at the time of publication. The information represented herein is believed to be reliable, at the time of publication, and was obtained by various public sources also believed to be reliable. The opinions were considered to be accurate at the point of creation, and further, any views, forecasts, or estimates contained herein may be subject to change at anytime without notice. The opinions expressed or implied herein may not be the opinions of the author, also Exolus, or any associated affiliates.<br />This report and the information contained herein collectively, is not offered as, and should not be regarded as, used or relied upon as advice on any matter. It shall not constitute or be construed as a recommendation or solicitation on behalf of the author, and no legal commitment or obligation shall arise by reason of this document. Thus, the reader shall make an independent assessment of opinion’s stated herein that shall not be considered a substitute for obtaining advise from the readers’ advisors. <br />The author shall not accept responsibility, express or implied, with regards to the accuracy and completeness of the information herein, and the author shall not be liable whatsoever and howsoever arising in connection to this publication. The author shall not accept, and hereby disclaim, all responsibility and liability to all persons, entities, or organizations for all consequences arising out of any use or reliance on the whole or any part of this publication.<br />This publication should not be reproduced or distributed without the author’s consent and is not intended for distribution in any jurisdiction in which this would be prohibited.<br />
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