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China 2020: What Will China Look Like in the Future?

China 2020: What Will China Look Like in the Future?
Today's Corporate Platforms - Competitive or Obsolete for the Future China?

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    China 2020:  What Will China Look Like in the Future? China 2020: What Will China Look Like in the Future? Presentation Transcript

    • Preface: What Does China Look Like from Space? At Night?
      Why?
      Source: NASA (United States – National Aeronautics and Space Administration)
    • Table of Contents – Corporate Series (Part 1 of 6)
      • Introduction – What China Will Look Like in the Future
      • STRUCTURAL FRAMEWORK: Determinants of China’s Economic Geography
      • The PAST: China’s Economic Growth
      - WEALTH: Forward Trend in Middle Class Growth
      - URBANIZATION: Forward Trend in Mass Migration / Urbanization
      - The FUTURE: China’s Future Country-Sized Mega-Clusters
      • Next Generation Structural/Functional Strategies
      TODAY’S BURNING PLATFORM: Structural Optimization (Cost / Revenues)
      1. Cost Reduction / Resources: Opportunity Envelopes for Emerging Structural Cost Optimization
      2. Revenue Growth / Markets: Pareto-Optimal Cost-Revenue Platform Solutions
      FUTURE BURNING PLATFORMS: Next Generation Optimization Opportunities
      3. Innovation Enhancement / Talent: Innovation-Seeking Investment Trend
      4. Shared Service Centers: SSC and BPO Trends, Strategic Opportunities
      5. Virtually Integrated Operating Models: Migration to Virtually Integrated Operating Models
      • China’s Economic Health and Opportunities for Investors
      - China Investor Confidence: China Ranks #1 as Most Attractive Investment Destination of Future
      - Financial & Economic Health: China Balance Sheets - Banks, Enterprises, Households
      - Stimulus Plan: Composition and US Comparison
      - Investment Opportunities: What are Investment Opportunities? For which Sectors?
    • INTRODUCTION: What China Will Look Like in the Future …
    • Structural Determinants of China’s Economic Geography …
      67% Mountains, Deserts, Steppe … 90% of 1.3 billion Population in EAST
      Deserts
      Heilongjiang
      Steppe
      Jilin
      Liaoning
      Xinjiang
      Inner Mongolia
      Beijing
      Gansu
      Tianjin
      Hebei
      Mountains
      Shanxi
      Ningxia
      Shandong
      Qinghai
      Henan
      Jiangsu
      Shaanxi
      People
      Tibet
      Anhui
      Shanghai
      Hubei
      Sichuan
      Zhejiang
      Chongqing
      Jiangxi
      Hunan
      Fujian
      Guizhou
      Yunnan
      Guangdong
      Guangxi
    • The PAST: Fastest Growing Large Economy in World
      China’s Economy: Doubles every 7 Years … Tripled most Recently
      China GDP (USD trillion)
      Hosts OLYMPIC games
      3x
      Accepted full convertibility for current account transaction
      Admitted to WTO
      USD (Real Market Rates)
      Eliminated its dual exchange rate
      China
      Opens to the World
      Applied to join GATT
      2x
      2x
      Source: IMF
    • 900
      800
      99
      700
      90
      600
      500
      53
      170
      355
      400
      461
      525
      239
      300
      255
      200
      157
      106
      100
      73
      35
      0
      2005
      2010F
      2015F
      2020F
      2025F
      WEALTH: Forward Trend in Exploding Middle Class
      China’s Middle Class: 400 million (2010) … 500 million (2015)
      Middle Class Income Bands for Urban Population
      Urban Household Income (US$ – PPP-Adjusted)
      822
      822
      756
      756
      Global > US$107,800
      684
      684
      Affluent US$3,800 - 107,800
      607
      607
      531
      531
      Urban Population (millions)
      Upper Middle US$21,501 – 53,900
      Lower Middle US$13,500 – 21,500
      Poor < US$13,500
      Upper Middle Class
      Lower Middle Class
      Sources: Urbanization Rates, Population based on UN, World Urbanization Prospects 2007; MGI Consumer Demand 2008
    • URBANIZATION: Forward Trend in Mass Migration into Cities
      China’s Urban Population: 600 million (2010) … 700 million (2015)
      China’s Urban Population versus Rural Population
      1,600
      1.45 billion
      1.4 billion
      1,400
      1.3 billion
      1.2 billion
      624
      1,200
      Rural Population (million)
      1 billion
      705
      1,000
      782
      800
      833
      822
      822
      Urban Population (million)
      600
      684
      400
      531
      381
      200
      245
      Urbanization
      57%
      23%
      49%
      40%
      31%
      0
      1985
      1995
      2005
      2015
      2025
      Source: World Urbanization Prospects 2007
    • The FUTURE (2020): Emergence of 10+ Mega-Clusters Size of Countries
      Mega-Cluster Profile: 60 Million Population + World-Class Infrastructure
      Mega-Clusters
      China’s Emerging MEGA-CLUSTERS
      Mega-Corridors
      Deserts
      Heilongjiang
      Steppe
      Jilin
      Liaoning
      Xinjiang
      Inner Mongolia
      Beijing
      Gansu
      Tianjin
      Hebei
      Mountains
      Shanxi
      Ningxia
      Shandong
      Qinghai
      Jiangsu
      Shaanxi
      Henan
      Tibet
      Anhui
      Shanghai
      Hubei
      Sichuan
      Zhejiang
      Chongqing
      Jiangxi
      Hunan
      Fujian
      Guizhou
      Yunnan
      Guangdong
      Guangxi
    • TODAY’S BURNING PLATFORM: Structural Optimization (Cost / Revenues)
    • TODAY’S BURNING PLATFORM: Structural Cost Reduction, Revenue Growth
      Global Structural’ Cost Reduction … Revenue Growth
      3) INNOVATION
      Revenue Growth
      KNOWLEDGE
      Sales
      Engineering
      MARKETS
      CONTRACTS, PARTNERSHIPS
      Marketing
      IT HR
      R&D
      Shared Services
      SHARED SERVICE CENTERS
      F&A Procure
      Distribution
      Sourcing
      RESEARCH & DEVELOPMENT
      Production
      SALES & MARKETING
      RESOURCES
      PRODUCTION / SOURCING
      Cost Reduction
      DRIVING Shareholder Value
    • 1. COSTS: Does First-World Infrastructure with Third-World Wages Exist?
      Asia Labor Costs: 10 – 20 Times Cheaper than in West
      Labor Costs (USD per month)
      Utility Costs
      Note: Units for Electricity $/kWh; Water in USD/m3; Waste Water in USD/m3
      Source: Wage Data from the International Labor Organization; Utilities Rates from Public Utilities (non-negotiated rates)
    • 1. COSTS: China Yields Major Cost Savings through Production & Sourcing
      Is it POSSIBLE for a Company’s Economy … to Surpass that of Countries?
      7th Place
      10th Place
    • 1. COSTS: Significant Stratification Trend for Wage Bands
      Labor Costs: Western China @ 65% of Costs compared to EAST
      Low Cost Labor
      (Bands Normalized to Highest Wages for Operators)
      Wage Bands
      Deserts
      Heilongjiang
      Steppe
      Jilin
      Liaoning
      Xinjiang
      1
      Inner Mongolia
      Beijing
      Gansu
      Tianjin
      Hebei
      Mountains
      Shanxi
      Ningxia
      Shandong
      Qinghai
      0.65 - 0.75
      Henan
      Jiangsu
      Shaanxi
      1
      Tibet
      Anhui
      Shanghai
      Hubei
      0.8 - 0.9
      Sichuan
      0.7 - 0.8
      Zhejiang
      Chongqing
      Jiangxi
      Hunan
      Fujian
      Guizhou
      Yunnan
      1
      Guangdong
      Guangxi
      Source: Exolus Research
    • 1. COSTS: Where are Emerging Structural Cost Reduction Opportunities?
      Intersection: Low Cost Bands + Emerging Mega-Clusters
      Wage Bands / Mega-Cluster Overlay
      (Normalized to Highest Wages)
      Wage Bands
      Mega-Cluster
      Mega-Corridors
      Deserts
      Heilongjiang
      Steppe
      Jilin
      Liaoning
      Xinjiang
      1
      Inner Mongolia
      Beijing
      Gansu
      Tianjin
      Hebei
      Mountains
      Shanxi
      Ningxia
      Shandong
      Qinghai
      0.65 - 0.75
      Henan
      Jiangsu
      Shaanxi
      1
      Tibet
      Anhui
      Shanghai
      Hubei
      0.8 - 0.9
      Sichuan
      0.7 - 0.8
      Zhejiang
      Chongqing
      Jiangxi
      Hunan
      Fujian
      Guizhou
      Yunnan
      1
      Guangdong
      Guangxi
    • Germany (5)
      France (6)
      China (2)
      EU-27
      UK (7)
      Germany (3)
      EU-27
      France (6)
      UK (4)
      2. REVENUES: China Already World’s 2nd Largest Economy (PPP)
      GDP PPP (2008)
      11,8 trillions de $
      6,4 trillionsde $
      US (1)
      3,6 trillionsde $
      3 trillionsde $
      India (3)
      Japan (4)
      $7.8 tr
      $4.4 tr
      $3.3 tr
      $14.9 tr
      $14.3 tr
      GDP Nominal (2008)
      US (1)
      $5.1 tr
      Japan (2)
      China (5)
      IND(9)
      $14.3 tr
      $4.2 tr
      $4.9 tr
      $1.2 tr
      $17.1 tr
      Source: EIU; IMF; CIA World Factbook
    • 2. REVENUES: Significant Income Stratification Trends across China
      Coastal Wealth Spreading Across the Country
      China Per Capita Annual Income
      (USD, PPP-Adjusted)
      Per Capita Annual Income
      (USD, PPP-Adjusted)
      Heilongjiang
      Jilin
      Xinjiang
      Liaoning
      Inner Mongolia
      Beijing
      Gansu
      Hebei
      Tianjin
      Shanxi
      Ningxia
      Shandong
      Qinghai
      Henan
      Jiangsu
      Shaanxi
      Tibet
      Anhui
      Shanghai
      Hubei
      Sichuan
      Zhejiang
      Chongqing
      Jiangxi
      Hunan
      Fujian
      Guizhou
      Yunnan
      Guangdong
      Guangxi
    • 2. REVENUES: Car Sales/Production Proxy for Directional Market Sizing?
      China Cars: World’s #1 Consumer … World’s #1 Producer
      China Automotive Production
      VW: Audi, Jetta, Bora, Golf
      Mazda: M6
      Toyota: Land Cruiser
      BMW: 3 Series and 5 Series
      GM: GL8
      GM:Chevrolet (Epica, Sail, Aveo, Lova)
      GM: Wuling
      Hyundai: Sonata, Elantra
      Daimler-Chrysler: Mercedes-Benz, Cherokee, Jeep
      Mitsubishi: Pajero, Outlander
      Changchun
      Kia: Pride, Accent, Optima
      Shenyang
      Fiat: Iveco
      Ford
      Beijing
      Tianjin
      Yantai
      Qingdao
      Toyota: Vios, Corolla, Crown
      Daihatsu: Charade
      VW: Santana, Passat, Polo, Gol, Touran
      GM: Buick Regal, Royaum,Lacrosse,
      Excelle, Cadillac
      Zhengzhou
      Yancheng
      Nanjing
      Wuhu
      Wuhan
      Shanghai
      Chengdu
      Nissan: Paladin, pickup
      Nanchang
      Chery: Fulwin,Cowin,Easter,QQ,A5,V5
      Taizhou
      Chongqing
      Changsha
      Toyota: Terios, Prado
      Fuzhou
      Geely: Haoqing, Meirie, Uliou, Maple
      Suzuki: Alto, Swift, Gazelle
      Isuzu: F-Series, N-Series
      Ford: Fiesta, Mondeo
      Guangzhou
      Liuzhou
      Nissan: Teana
      Peugeot-Citroen: Fukang, Elysee, Xsara, Peugeot, Picasso
      Honda: CR-V
      Hainan
      Mitsubishi: Pajero
      Soueast: Lioncel, Delica, Freeca, Soveran
      Daimler Chrysler: Spinter Vito/Viano
      GM: Spark, Wuling
      Honda: Accord, Fit, Odyssey
      Nissan: Bluebird, Sunny
      Toyota: Camry
      Mazda: Premacy, Familia
      Ford: Transit
      Sources: Company Websites, Publically Available Information
    • 1
      100%
      2
      4
      16
      90
      11
      80
      9
      9
      5
      70
      7
      15
      60
      12
      6
      50
      11
      40
      9
      30
      54
      20
      29
      10
      0
      1990
      2010f
      2. REVENUES: High Spending Growth Sustained Through Global Crisis
      Sustained Retail Sales Growth … Huge Shift in Discretionary Spend
      Retail Sales Growth
      Personal Expenditure
      1.8
      15.5% Growth (2009)
      • Transport & Communications
      USD Trillions
      • Health Care
      • Consumer Goods
      • Education
      • Home Appliances
      0.7
      • Housing
      • Clothing
      0.4
      • Food
      Source: China National Bureau of Statistics
    • 2. REVENUES: Immense, Rapidly Growing Markets across Verticals
      Exploding Middle Class+ High Speed Urbanization = Explosive Growth in Consumption
      Source: China National Bureau of Statistics, EIU 2008, Various
    • COSTS/REVENUES: Where are Pareto Optimal Envelopes?
      Low Cost Bands + Emerging Mega-Clusters + High-Income Geographies
      Per Capita Income / Wage Band Overlay
      Per Capita Annual Income
      (USD, PPP-Adjusted)
      Heilongjiang
      Jilin
      Xinjiang
      Liaoning
      Inner Mongolia
      1
      1
      Beijing
      Gansu
      Wage Bands
      Hebei
      Tianjin
      Mega-Cluster
      Shanxi
      Ningxia
      Mega-Corridors
      Shandong
      Qinghai
      0.65 - 0.75
      Henan
      Jiangsu
      Shaanxi
      1
      1
      Tibet
      Anhui
      Shanghai
      Hubei
      0.8 - 0.9
      Sichuan
      0.7 - 0.8
      Zhejiang
      Chongqing
      Jiangxi
      Hunan
      Fujian
      Guizhou
      Yunnan
      1
      1
      Guangdong
      Guangxi
    • FUTURE BURNING PLATFORMS:Next Generation Strategic Optimization
    • The FUTURE: Third, Fourth & Fifth Generation Global Strategies
      INNOVATION
      REVENUES
      KNOWLEDGE
      MARKETS
      Sales
      Engineering
      Marketing
      R&D
      IT HR
      SSC
      CONTRACTS, PARTNERSHIPS
      F&A Pro’c
      SHARED SERVICE CENTERS (SSC)
      Distribution
      Sourcing
      RESEARCH & DEVELOPMENT
      Production
      SALES & MARKETING
      PRODUCTION / SOURCING
      RESOURCES
      DRIVING Shareholder Value
      COSTS
    • 3. INNOVATION: China Mobilizes all Resources to Develop Talent
      China Science and Engineering: 1.6 Million Graduates per Year
      University Natural Sciences Degrees(1985 – 2005)
      USA
      China
      Thousands
      Sources: National Science Board, Science & Engineering Indicators 2008
    • 3. INNOVATION: Where are Key Nodes for Structuring R&D Platforms?
      “R” of R&D Seeks Universities … “D” Seeks Markets & Production
      R&D Centers
      (# Operations)
      Research & Development Centers
      (Number of Operations in Select Cities)
      > 10
      > 50
      Deserts
      Heilongjiang
      Steppe
      > 150
      Jilin
      Wage Bands
      Mega-Cluster
      Liaoning
      Xinjiang
      Mega-Corridors
      1
      Inner Mongolia
      Beijing
      Gansu
      Tianjin
      Hebei
      Mountains
      Shanxi
      Ningxia
      Shandong
      Qinghai
      0.65 - 0.75
      Henan
      Jiangsu
      Shaanxi
      1
      Tibet
      Anhui
      Shanghai
      Hubei
      0.8 - 0.9
      Sichuan
      0.7 - 0.8
      Zhejiang
      Chongqing
      Jiangxi
      Hunan
      Fujian
      Guizhou
      Yunnan
      1
      Guangdong
      Guangxi
      Source: UNCTAD, WIR
    • 3. INNOVATION: Even Big Pharma Migrating R&D Functions to China
      Costs Disease Diversity R&D Clinical Trials
      R&D Centers
      (# Operations)
      Research & Development Centers
      (Number of Operations in Select Cities)
      > 10
      > 50
      Heilongjiang
      > 150
      Jilin
      Wage Bands
      Mega-Cluster
      Liaoning
      Xinjiang
      Mega-Corridors
      Inner Mongolia
      Beijing
      Gansu
      Tianjin
      Hebei
      Shanxi
      Ningxia
      Shandong
      Qinghai
      Henan
      Jiangsu
      Shaanxi
      Tibet
      Anhui
      Shanghai
      Hubei
      Sichuan
      Zhejiang
      Chongqing
      Jiangxi
      Hunan
      Fujian
      Guizhou
      Yunnan
      Guangdong
      Guangxi
      Source: UNCTAD, WIR
    • 4. SHARED SERVICE CENTERS (SSC): Strategic Solution Envelopes
      Efficiencies … Economies of Scale … Knowledge Sharing … Standardization
      Strategic Sourcing / Mega-Cluster Overlay
      Shared Services
      Wage Bands
      Deserts
      Mega-Clusters
      Heilongjiang
      Steppe
      Mega-Corridors
      Jilin
      Liaoning
      Xinjiang
      1
      Inner Mongolia
      Beijing
      Gansu
      Tianjin
      Hebei
      Mountains
      Shanxi
      Ningxia
      Shandong
      Qinghai
      0.65 - 0.75
      Henan
      Jiangsu
      Shaanxi
      1
      Tibet
      Anhui
      Shanghai
      Hubei
      0.8 - 0.9
      Sichuan
      0.7 - 0.8
      Zhejiang
      Chongqing
      Jiangxi
      Hunan
      Fujian
      Guizhou
      Yunnan
      1
      Guangdong
      Guangxi
      Source: KPMG “A new Dawn: China’s Emerging Role in Global Outsourcing”, 2009
    • 5. Global Virtual Integration Models: Extension of Core Functions
      Global Virtual Integration Models … Even Big-Pharma LEAP-FROGGING Generations
      • Boehringer Ingelheim
      • First Big Pharma to have entrusted a sole distributor for all of its products in China: Sinopharm.
      • Sinopharm is China’s largest pharmaceutical distributor by sales and the only China distributor to cover the entire PRC.
      • Boehringer Ingelheim’s sales spiked upward by 45% from 2006 to 2007; Sinopharm saw an annual growth rate of 32%.
      • Pfizer
      • Outsources to Wuxi PharmaTech: synthetic chemistry, parallel medicinal chemistry, and bio-analytical services. It also has a 3-year CRO contract with Wuxi PharmaTech to provide services in the areas of: in-vitro Absorption, Distribution, Metabolism and Excretion (ADME) services.
      • GSK
      • Outsources to Shanghai Institute of Materia Medica (SIMM) chemistry requirements.
      • AstraZeneca
      • Invested USD14 million in Wuxi Pharma Tech for the synthesis of 150,000 compounds.
      China’s CRO Market
      CSO Extended Cases
      CRO Extended Cases
      Sources: Goldman Sachs: Healthcare Services: CROs, December 2007; Exolus Research
    • China’s Economic Health … Opportunities for Investors
    • Senior Executives Select China as Most Attractive in World
      Investor Confidence in China #1 in World
      Top 14 Most Attractive Destinations for Future Investment (2009 – 2011)
      %
      Percent of Responses
      Source: World Investment Prospects 2009 - 2011
    • Healthy Balance Sheets – Banks, Enterprises, Households
      Insulation of Financial System … USD 2.4 trillion in Foreign Reserves … Low Inflation
      • China’s Financial System Healthy, Benefits from Insulation, Abundant Liquidity
      • China banks cleaned up in 1990s: Non-performing loans in 1997 averaged 40 – 50%; only 6% in 2007.
      • Financial institutions extended approximately USD1.4 tr in new loans in 2009; almost double that of 2008
      • Forex Reserves Achieve Record High in 2009: USD 2.4 trillion
      • The Central Bank has accumulated over USD 2.4 trillion in foreign reserves.
      • The accumulation of large external surpluses means financial system enjoys abundant liquidity.
      • Clean Balance Sheets for Enterprises and Households
      • State Owned Enterprise net profits as share of GDP has grown from (-1%) in 1997 to (+4.3%) in 2007.
      • Record corporate profit growth over past 5 years (industrial profits rose 38 ppa); liability ratios declined.
      • Urban incomes have nearly doubled in past 10 years.
      • CPI Inflation, Expected Modest Rise in 2010
      • January 2010 CPI at 1.5%, while preliminary forecasts predict inflation to reach 3% during 2010.
      Source: Deutsche Bank; Standard Chartered; UBS; IMF; Other
    • Stimulus Plan Well Structured, Strong Ability to Implement
      Large Stimulus Package … Authorities able to Deploy Quickly … China Early Recovery
      China Stimulus Distribution
      Economic Stimulus - Comparative
      Source: China’s Stimulus vs. America’s Bailout, Housel 2008 ; National Development and Reform Commission March 2009
    • Stimulus Plan will be of Direct Benefit to Range of Investors
      Source: MOFCOM; NAROS; Various :
    • Business Consulting
      For Full Report and More Information Please Contact Us:
      URL: www.exolus.com
      Email: info@exolus.com
      www.exolus.com
    • Disclaimer
      In writing we benefit from standing on the shoulders of others and, in the process, we strive to make our own contributions to the market of ideas. As well, we are always tremendously grateful for the many, often selfless, contributions that are availed in the process.
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