Voice of Democracy - Politics Report - In Collaboration with Germin8
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Voice of Democracy - Politics Report - In Collaboration with Germin8

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A collaborative report that analyzes India’s online conversations about politics on the basis of sentiment, key drivers of conversation, top keywords being associated with different political ...

A collaborative report that analyzes India’s online conversations about politics on the basis of sentiment, key drivers of conversation, top keywords being associated with different political parties and leaders, main issues, etc.

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Voice of Democracy - Politics Report - In Collaboration with Germin8 Voice of Democracy - Politics Report - In Collaboration with Germin8 Presentation Transcript

  • The Voice of Democracy An analysis of online political conversations September, October, and November 2013
  • Introduction • As per a recent survey by Google, social media is likely to have an impact on close to 30 percent seats in the Lok Sabha elections of 2014. • 160 out of India’s 543 Parliament constituencies are likely to be influenced by social media; making Facebook and Twitter India’s newest voting bloc. • Here are some numbers in online India’s growth story which reveal that though the level of impact social media can have on the outcome of elections is debatable; the expectations are not completely unfounded. – – – Year-on-Year growth in the number of internet users in India - 40% Number of internet users in urban India – 137 million Number of internet users in rural India – 68 million • Realizing that they cannot afford to ignore the Indians frequenting the World Wide Web, politicians and political parties have joined the fray in creating a buzz online. • This report delves into insights that are a result of curating online conversations around politicians and political parties; and carrying out a detailed analysis using social media monitoring tools. http://www.iamai.in/PRelease_detail.aspx?nid=3222&NMonth=11&NYear=2013, http://www.exchange4media.com/53235_facebook-twitter-users-the-nations-newest-voting-bloc.html,
  • Overview of Content • State-wise preference levels for political parties • Numerical and sentiment analysis of conversations around top political parties and politicians in the country • Topics and issues contributing significantly to online conversations and creating a buzz on Facebook and Twitter • Likely candidate for the post of PM, according to what people are saying online • Words associated with top political parties, leaders, and the Parliament • Most popular politicians online (based on people’s online conversations) • Most active politicians online (based on politicians’ activities online) This report aims to analyze the existing online conversations about politics and politicians in India; and thus ‘Top’ political parties, leaders, issues, and buzz words refers to those that have been arrived at by analyzing online conversations throughout the defined time period (September 2013 to November 2013) and selecting the entities with the maximum online mentions in terms of numbers.
  • Total Mentions – 4.97 lakhs Trinamool, 1.20% Samajwadi party, 1.90% NCP, 1.20% JD U, 1.30% AAP, 18.30% YSR Congress, 1.20% RJD, 0.50% Congress, 39.20% BJP, 35.20% Here are the total number of mentions for different political parties as they gear up for the 2014 elections.
  • State-wise Levels of Political Conversations • An analysis of political conversations across India shows that the maximum number of online political conversations come from users in Maharashtra and Delhi. • Karnataka and Gujarat show medium levels of political conversations while the number of political conversations from the rest of India is comparatively low. • We have further analyzed the positive and negative sentiment of political conversations in these regions across the top three political parties.
  • State-wise Conversations - Congress 30 25 25 20 15 10 5 September 24 20 19.8 Mentions – 1,00,789 15 23.6 October 19.8 10 12.1 7.3 6.5 Mentions – 1,06,239 12 7.4 6.1 5.5 5 5.3 4.1 3 3 2.7 1.9 1.6 1.5 4.1 3.3 2.7 0 0 30 25 25.5 24.4 November 20 15 10 5 0 9.5 Mentions – 16,484 6.9 5.5 4.8 3.8 3.6 2.7 2.6 2.5 1.3 1.1 % Posts 2.7 2.2 1.8
  • Online Mentions for Congress September October November Low Medium High Location Maharashtra Delhi Karnataka Posts 24.2% 19.7% 13% Location Maharashtra Delhi Karnataka Posts 24.7% 18.9% 12.2% Location Maharashtra Delhi Karnataka Posts 27.2% 25.2% 9.8% Positive Sentiment Location Maharashtra Delhi Karnataka Posts 24.2% 19.7% 12.5% Location Maharashtra Delhi Karnataka Posts 23.6% 20.1% 13.0% Location Delhi Maharashtra Karnataka Posts 25.7% 23.2% 11% Negative Sentiment •Positive conversations for Congress have increased by 12.39% and 27.91% in Maharashtra and Delhi respectively; and decreased by 24% in Karnataka. •The negative conversations have increased by 30.45% in Delhi and decreased by 4.13% and 12% in Maharashtra and Karnataka respectively. •The increase in the negative sentiment in Delhi can be attributed to conversations about the ineffectiveness of Sheila Dixit as the CM and the increase in corrupt practices and crimes during Congress’ regime.
  • Conversation Examples There is more negative than positive conversation in most states. Maharashtra leads the conversations. There is high negative sentiment in Delhi lately, stating ineffectiveness of Sheila Dixit as the CM and the increase in corrupt practices and crimes in the Congress regime.
  • State-wise Conversations - BJP 25 21.8 20.5 10 5 21.7 October 20 20 15 23.4 25 September Mentions – 1,02,003 15 11.9 10 8.5 6.2 5.5 5.1 Mentions – 86,285 11 7.4 6.2 5 3 2.7 2.5 2.3 1.6 6 4.7 0 0 30 25 26 November 21 20 15 10 5 0 Mentions – 18,015 11.1 7.1 5.9 5.1 4.2 3.6 % Posts 2.8 2.4 2 1.4 3 2.6 2.3 2.2
  • Online Mentions for BJP September October November Low Medium High Location Maharashtra Delhi Karnataka Posts 21.5% 19.1% 13% Location Maharashtra Delhi Karnataka Posts 21.9% 21.7% 11.8% Location Maharashtra Delhi Karnataka Posts 25.7% 23% 12.3% Location Maharashtra Delhi Karnataka Posts 22.5% 21.4% 11.8% Location Delhi Maharashtra Karnataka Posts 24.5% 22.2% 12 % Location Delhi Maharashtra Karnataka Posts 26.5% 22.3% 12.8% Positive Sentiment Negative Sentiment From September 2013 to November 2013, the positive conversations for BJP have increased by 19.53% and 20.41% in Maharashtra and Delhi respectively; and decreased by 5.3% in Karnataka. The negative conversations have increased by 23.83% and 8.47% in Delhi and Karnataka respectively; and decreased by 0.8% in Maharashtra. The increase in the negative sentiment can be attributed to conversations about BJP rejecting the ordinance against criminals in politics as well as the arrest of Tarun Tejpal and the accusations of conspiracy he levelled against the BJP.
  • Conversation Examples Initially there was a positive sentiment around BJP but in October and November the negative sentiment increased, because in October, BJP rejected the ordinance against criminals in Politics and in November, Tarun Tejpal was arrested; he accused BJP of conspiracy.
  • State-wise conversations - AAP 35 35 30.6 September 30 15 10 5 October 30 25 25 20 33.2 Mentions – 12,031 18.2 21 Mentions – 14,346 20 15 10.9 6 5.8 9.1 10 4.9 3.7 3 2.9 2.6 2.1 1.7 5.7 5.6 5 3.4 3.4 0 0 35 30.2 November 30 25 20.1 20 15 10 5 0 Mentions – 12,041 11.7 7.1 4.6 3.5 3.4 3.2 % Posts 3 3 1.5 1.4 1.3 3.3 3 2.3 1.8 1.5
  • Online Mentions for AAP September October November Low Medium High Location Delhi Maharashtra Karnataka Posts 29.5% 18% 12.8% Location Delhi Maharashtra Karnataka Posts 32.8% 20.3% 9.9% Location Delhi Maharashtra Karnataka Posts 30.9% 20.1% 13.6% Location Delhi Maharashtra Karnataka Posts 28.6% 21.1% 11.1% Location Delhi Maharashtra Karnataka Posts 31.9% 22.5% 10.7% Location Delhi Maharashtra Karnataka Posts 28.2% 21.9% 13.3% Positive Sentiment Negative Sentiment From September 2013 to November 2013, the positive conversations for AAP have increased by 11.66%, 4.74%, and 6.25% in Maharashtra, Delhi, and Karnataka respectively. The negative conversations have increased by 3.79% and 19.81% in Maharashtra and Karnataka respectively; and decreased by 1.3% in Delhi. The increase in the negative sentiment can be attributed to conversations about rumours of Arvind Kejriwal joining the Congress.
  • Conversation Examples People are hopeful of clean politics from AAP and showing a lot of support to them. Although there were occasional rumours around Arvind Kejriwal being corrupt.
  • Online Conversations about Political Parties Online conversations around the top three political parties have been analyzed to identify the positive and negative words that each party is associated with. These words (buzz words) are the ones that have been mentioned the most, in association with the name of the particular party, in online conversations. The total number of posts refers to the number of posts on Facebook, Twitter, as well as other online platforms; that include the particular buzz word and the name of the political party in the same context.
  • Positive Buzz around the Congress Percentage of posts for the top positive buzz words Words % Posts proudofpm 33.99 Good 30.16 ordinance 24.19 best 11.67 Total Mentions – 4,019 Positive words that the Congress is associated with: Proud of PM, Good, Ordinance, Best Positive online conversations include people praising the PM for signing the nuclear deal with the USA, and praising Rahul Gandhi for supporting the ordinance against criminal politicians.
  • Examples of Positive Conversation Positives
  • Negative Buzz around the Congress Percentage of posts for the top negative buzz words Words % Posts attack 21.21 corruption 18.44 nonsense 6.67 riot 17.26 fight 14.15 corrupt 11.99 terror 10.28 Total Mentions – 19,734 Negative words that the Congress is associated with: Attack, Corruption, Nonsense, Riot, Fight, Corrupt, Terror Negative conversations about the Congress are majorly centred around corruption. The Congress has also been criticized for attacking Narendra Modi.
  • Examples of Negative Conversation Negatives
  • Positive Buzz around the BJP Percentage of posts for the top positive buzz words Words % Posts modi 33.96 rally 12.14 narendra 11.65 vote 8.40 election 6.58 namoinbhopal 6.36 ordinance 4.90 namointrichy 4.66 speech 4.64 Total Mentions – 19,100 Positive words that the BJP is associated with: Modi, Rally, Narendra, Vote, Election Positive conversations around the BJP include people’s expectations of improvements to the current state of the nation and a lot of positive comments about Modi being the leader of change.
  • Examples of Positive Conversation Positives
  • Negative Buzz around the BJP Percentage of posts for the top negative buzz words Words modi ordinance convict riot arrest criminal mla % Posts 29.18 15.78 9.37 9.22 9.13 7.06 6.97 Total Mentions – 17,682 Negative words that the BJP is associated with: Convict, Riot, Arrest, Criminal Negative conversations around the BJP are about people unhappy with the opposition to the ordinance against criminal politicians. The arrest of a BJP MLA in Meerut also increased the negative conversations for the BJP.
  • Examples of Negative Conversation Negatives
  • Positive Buzz around the AAP Percentage of posts for the top positive buzz words Words % Posts support 59.80 power 14.72 hope 14.21 change 11.27 Total Mentions – 1,562 Positive words that the AAP is associated Positive conversations about the AAP are focused around its image of being a clean with: party which will bring a change in Indian Politics. Support, Power, Hope, Change
  • Examples of Positive Conversation Positives
  • Negative Buzz around the AAP Percentage of posts for the top negative buzz words Words % Posts corruption 35.74 corrupt 26.37 attack 13.57 criminal 13.17 expose 11.16 Total Mentions – 2,742 Negative words that the AAP is associated with: Corruption, Corrupt, Attack, Criminal, Expose Negative conversations around the AAP are about rumours of Arvind Kejriwal joining the Congress.
  • Examples of Negative Conversation Negatives
  • Buzz Around The Parliament Topics % Posts criminal 38.82 ordinance 37.71 convict 9.95 protest 7.25 election 6.27 Total Mentions – 814 The ordinance to protect criminals, BJP’s U-turn over the ordinance against criminal politicians, and Rahul Gandhi’s remark calling it nonsense; were the most discussed topics around the Parliament.
  • Conversation Examples
  • Gender-wise Support for Political Parties 48.86 % 49.29 % 44.79 % 45.89 % 4.81 % 6.35 % This graph shows the percentage-wise distribution across political parties; of the total positive political conversations from men and women. The support for BJP is higher than that of the Congress and the AAP from both men and women. It is interesting to note that inspite of the less volume of conversations, percentage of female support for BJP is higher than the percentage of male support for the BJP.
  • Online Conversations about Politicians Online conversations around the top political leaders have been analyzed to identify the positive and negative words that each leader is associated with. These words (buzz words) are the ones that have been mentioned the most, in association with the name of the particular leader, in online conversations. The total number of posts refers to the number of posts on Facebook, Twitter, as well as other online platforms; that include the particular buzz word and the name of the leader in the same context.
  • Positive Buzz around Narendra Modi Percentage of posts for the top positive buzz words Words % Posts good 20.47 leader 17.17 praise 12.94 dream 12.28 happy 9.86 best 9.58 prime 9.31 great 8.39 Total Mentions – 9,956 Positive words that Narendra Modi is associated with: Good, Leader, Praise, Dream, Happy Positive conversations about Narendra Modi talk of him as a great leader and orator who can realize the dream of a progressive India.
  • Examples of Positive Conversation Positives
  • Negative Buzz around Narendra Modi Percentage of posts for the top negative buzz words Words % Posts riot 46.55 divisive 42.61 ordinance 10.85 Total Mentions – 1,650 Negative words that Narendra Modi is associated with: Riot, Divisive Negative online conversations about Narendra Modi talk of him as a divisive leader. Conversations about the Gujarat riots contribute significantly to the negative buzz.
  • Examples of Negative Conversation Negatives
  • Positive Buzz around Arvind Kejriwal Percentage of posts for the top positive buzz words Words support victory vote raining fund responsible genius quiet genius good % Posts 16.85 16.85 15.98 10.52 10.52 9.89 9.73 9.65 Total Mentions – 1,264 Positive words that Arvind Kejriwal is associated with: Support, Victory, Vote, Raising Fund, Responsible, Genius Positive online conversations about Arvind Kejriwal portray him as a quiet genius who can contribute to building a corruption-free India.
  • Examples of Positive Conversation Positives
  • Negative Buzz around Arvind Kejriwal Percentage of posts for the top negative buzz words Words % Posts blame 38.20 fight 36.51 expose 25.29 Total Mentions – 767 Negative words that Arvind Kejriwal is associated with: Blame, Fight, Expose Negative conversations about Arvind Kejriwal include criticism for blaming the BJP for the Muzaffarnagar violence about rumours of him joining the Congress.
  • Examples of Negative Conversation Negatives
  • Positive Buzz around Manmohan Singh Percentage of posts for the top positive buzz words Words % Posts proudofpm 80.15 best 10.67 brain 9.17 Total Mentions – 3,139 Positive words that Manmohan Singh is associated with: Proud of PM, Best, Brain Positive online conversations around Manmohan Singh include how he is the best Prime Minister and the brain behind pulling India out from the global meltdown during tenure as a Finance Minister.
  • Examples of Positive Conversation Positives
  • Negative Buzz around Manmohan Singh Percentage of posts for the top negative buzz words Words % Posts silence 29.66 nonsense 27.15 issue 23.19 insult 20 Total Mentions – 1,035 Negative words that Manmohan Singh is associated with: Silence, Nonsense, Issue, Insult The major focus of negative conversations about Manmohan Singh is on his silence on important matters. There are also many jokes about his ordinance against criminal politicians being rejected.
  • Examples of Negative Conversation Negatives
  • Positive Buzz around Rahul Gandhi Percentage of posts for the top positive buzz words Words % Posts best 40 pm 40 leader 19 Total Mentions – 2,196 Positive words that Rahul Gandhi is associated with: Best, PM, Leadership Positive online conversations about Rahul Gandhi suggest that a young leader like him is necessary and is best for the nation.
  • Examples of Positive Conversation Positives
  • Negative Buzz around Rahul Gandhi Percentage of posts for the top negative buzz words Words nonsense wrong waste % Posts 53.93 24.55 21.52 Total Mentions – 3,755 Negative words that Rahul Gandhi is associated with: Nonsense, Wrong, Waste A majority of negative conversations about Rahul Gandhi include jokes about him tearing the ordinance against criminal politicians and include discussions about him being an inappropriate candidate for leading the country.
  • Examples of Negative Conversation Negatives
  • Sentiment Analysis The online conversations around the top three political parties have been analyzed to arrive at the volume of positive and negative mentions for each, as well as their percentages with respect to the total number of conversations. A month-wise analysis has been carried out in order to track the change in sentiment, month-onmonth. Posts/Conversations refer to mentions on any online platforms.
  • Sentiment Analysis - September September The Fodder Scam verdict resulted in negative conversations for Congress. Narendra Modi’s address to advertisers about Taking Brand India to the World resulted in positive conversations for the BJP.
  • Conversation Examples
  • Sentiment Analysis - October October The election commission’s notice issued to Rahul Gandhi, for his inflammatory speech, drove the high negative sentiment for the Congress.
  • Conversation Examples
  • Sentiment Analysis - November November The conversations for all three parties are mostly a build up to the elections, discussing who the next power of the country would be.
  • Conversation Examples
  • Sentiment Analysis Over Time Congress September 56 November 0 50 100 150 51.9 49.2 50.8 52.9 47.1 45.9 October November 47.9 48.1 October 38.8 52.1 September September 44 61.2 October AAP BJP November 0 50 100 150 54.1 33.9 66.1 46.1 0 53.9 50 100 150 Congress: The negative sentiment shows a consistent decrease while the positive sentiment shows a drop in October, followed by an increase in November. BJP: The negative sentiment shows an increase in October followed by a dip in November while the positive sentiment shows a consistent decrease. AAP: The negative sentiment shows a dip in October followed by an increase in November while the positive sentiment shows a consistent decrease.
  • Top Issues Discussed on Twitter Mentions – 10,571 These are the top issues that have been discussed on Twitter over the last three months.
  • Top Issues Discussed on Facebook Mentions – 18,717 These are the top issues that have been discussed on Facebook over the last three months.
  • Positive and Negative Sentiment Around Issues Mentions – 24,651 Positive Negative Economy: Congress has more negative mentions as compared to positive mentions while BJP and AAP have more positive mentions than negative ones. Elections: Congress has more negative mentions as compared to positive mentions while BJP and AAP have more positive mentions than negative ones. Government: Congress has more negative mentions as compared to positive mentions while BJP and AAP have more positive mentions than negative ones. Politicians: Congress, BJP, and AAP have more negative mentions that positive ones.
  • Conversation Examples
  • Conversation Examples
  • Top 10 Politicians According to Popularity Narendra Modi, with the highest fan following across Facebook, Twitter, Google +, and YouTube emerges as the most popular politician on social media. Owing to a higher Twitter following, better sentiment rate, and more YouTube video views; Shashi Tharoor comes second, followed by Arvind Kejriwal who has a high number of fans and followers on Facebook and Twitter respectively.
  • Top 10 Politicians According to Popularity Facebook Twitter Positive Facebook Engagement No. of Tweets Sentiment on No. of fans Rate (%) followers Twitter Google+ Most no. of Youtube Weightage No. of views for a Subscribers Score followers video Standing Politicians 1 Narendra Modi 66,75,497 7.46 29,04,635 3420 75 10,05,780 2 Shashi Tharoor 79,751 4.19 19,87,037 20498 84 375 3 Arvind Kejriwal 10,23,035 15.73 7,72,611 2229 67 830 4 Manmohan Singh 4,57,338 0 9,28,864 3734 66 0 5 Sushma Swaraj 2,03,035 0 7,98,190 2874 60 0 6 Rajnath Singh 4,93,492 13.42 1,25,448 341 62 0 7 Omar Abdullah 52,446 12.5 3,88,824 5988 46 0 8 Mamata Banerjee 4,76,302 2.85 0 0 0 0 9 Akhilesh Yadav 3,06,964 4.96 19,840 53 59 0 10 Arun Jaitley 2,64,861 22.87 13,587 2 51 0 0.25x 0.1x 0.25x 0.05x 0.1x 0.05x Weightage 11,66,362 3,22,532 64,085 13,089 41,490 19,719 29,013 5,185 0.1x 1,06,910 26,59,796 95 6,08,598 1,647 4,78,713 48 3,75,737 584 2,78,465 3 1,60,478 0 1,21,988 0 1,19,076 8 85,205 76 70,553 0.1x
  • Basis of Calculation Total weightage score has been arrived at by taking the important parameters of each social network, assigning it a weightage on the basis of the importance of that factor, and then taking a total of each factor multiplied by its weightage. Engagement rate for Facebook has been calculated by dividing the number of people talking about the page by the number of fans, multiplied by 100.
  • Top 10 Active Politicians on Facebook Politicians Engagement Rate (%) People Engagement Rate No. of fans talking about in%) the page 6% 5% 4% Arvind Kejriwal 3% 60,574 22.87 Arvind Kejriwal 10,23,035 1,60,923 15.73 Rajnath Singh 4,93,492 66,227 13.42 Omar Abdullah 52,446 6,556 12.5 Sheila Dikshit 1,16,934 8,782 7.51 Narendra Modi 66,75,497 4,97,992 7.46 30,259 1,776 5.87 Akhilesh Yadav 3,06,964 15,225 4.96 79,751 3,342 4.19 4,76,302 13,575 2.85 Rajnath Singh 23% Omar Abdullah 8% Sheila Dikshit 8% 16% 13% 2,64,861 Shashi Tharoor Arun Jaitley Arun Jaitley 14% Narendra Modi Milind Deora Akhilesh Yadav Shashi Tharoor Milind Deora Mamata Banerjee Mamata Banerjee • Arun Jaitley has the highest engagement with 23% engagement followed Arvind Kejriwal and Rajnath Singh with 16% and 14% respectively. • Engagement rate calculated on the basis of number of people talking about the page divided by the number of fans, multiplied by 100.
  • Top 10 Active Politicians on Twitter Based on the number of tweets 25000 20498 20000 15000 10000 5988 5000 0 3734 3420 2874 2229 2099 1779 Number of tweets 341 76 Shashi Tharoor with 20,498 is the most engaged on Twitter. Omar Abdullah with 5,988 & Manmohan Singh with 3,734 are 2nd and 3rd respectively.
  • Top 10 Active Politicians on Twitter Based on number of followers Twitter Followers 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 29.04 19.87 9.28 7.98 7.72 3.88 1.25 1.13 1.08 0.44 (in lakhs) Narendra Modi dominates the list with 29 lakh followers followed by Shashi Tharoor with 19 lakh followers
  • Looking Ahead • When it comes to online conversations; no party or leader, except Narendra Modi as a likely candidate to Prime Minister, emerges as a preferred option by a significant margin. • The online conversations show that while in terms of percentage, the positive and negative sentiment for the top three political parties viz. Congress, BJP, and AAP are comparable, the volume of conversations for the Congress is considerably high as compared to the BJP and AAP. • Even as far as online popularity and activity of leaders goes, there is no clear domination of leaders from either the Congress or the BJP in the top 10; and inspite of just one popular leader, the AAP does find a place among top 10 in the most active as well as most popular leaders lists. • Post the results of the elections in the five states viz. Delhi, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, and Mizoram; the levels of online conversation and sentiment are expected to have undergone a significant change. • These will be reflected in our early-January analysis of India’s run up to the polls in April/May.
  • About Ethinos Digital Marketing Ethinos Digital Marketing is a full service digital marketing agency with a unique, hands-on approach to help clients with solutions in all areas of digital marketing including Strategy and Media Planning, Social Media, Branding and Design, Search and ORM, Mobile and Emerging Media, and Content Services. Ethinos’ client list consists of diverse brands like Capgemini, Rolta, Kaspersky, Olympus Imaging, Hachette Publishing, Olympic Gold Quest, Kotak, HDFC Bank, NDTV, Times of India. Ethinos has received extensive industry recognition from bodies like Direct Marketing Association of India, Dragons of Asia, exchange4media, afaqs!, Social Samosa, Facebook, etc. Contact Details: www.ethinos.com www.twitter.com/ethinos www.facebook.com/EthinosDigital www.linkedin.com/company/ethinos-digital-marketing www.slideshare.net/ethinos
  • About Germin8 Germin8 is a Big Data analytics company focused on helping you understand and act in real time on the gazillions of conversations by your stakeholders and provide actionable industry insights through social listening. Explic8 ™ is Germin8's stakeholder insights and engagement platform that collects and analyses conversations in real time from public sources and private sources, and converts them into industry-specific actionable insights and leads. Contact Details: contact@germin8.com sales@germin8.com Twitter - @germin8 Facebook - facebook.com/germinait