Voice Of Democracy - Dec. 2013 to Feb. 2014
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Voice Of Democracy - Dec. 2013 to Feb. 2014

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A report that analyses online conversations of the past three months to ascertain how much influence recent political incidents and milestones have had on online political conversations.

A report that analyses online conversations of the past three months to ascertain how much influence recent political incidents and milestones have had on online political conversations.

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Voice Of Democracy - Dec. 2013 to Feb. 2014 Voice Of Democracy - Dec. 2013 to Feb. 2014 Presentation Transcript

  • Introduction In our previous report we had curated online conversations around politicians and political parties; and analyzed them in detail, using social media monitoring tools. In the duration between that report and this, some important events have taken place, example AAP forming a government in Delhi, Kejriwal resigning from his position as Chief Minister of Delhi, state elections in five states, RIL Gas Scam coming into the open, etc. This report is an attempt to relook at and analyze online conversations of the past three months to find out if these incidents have had a noteworthy impact on online political conversations, and if yes, to what degree.
  • Overview of Content State-wise preference levels for political parties Numerical and sentiment analysis of conversations around top political parties in the country Topics and issues contributing significantly to online conversations and creating a buzz on Facebook and Twitter Words associated with top political parties and the Parliament Most popular politicians online (based on people’s online conversations) Most active politicians online (based on politicians’ activities online) This report aims to analyze the existing online conversations about politics and politicians in India; and thus ‘Top’ political parties, leaders, issues, and buzz words refer to those that have been arrived at by analyzing online conversations throughout the defined time period (December 2013 to February 2014), and selecting the entities with the maximum online mentions in terms of numbers.
  • Total Mentions – 1.7 Million The total number of mentions for political parties, from December 2013 to February 2014, is 1.7 Million. This includes positive, negative and neutral mentions for the parties. 46.06 33.86 15.36 0.62 0.47 0.61 0.46 0.39
  • State-wise Levels of Political Conversations An analysis of political conversations across India shows that the maximum number of online political conversations came from users in Maharashtra and Delhi. Karnataka and Gujarat show medium levels of political conversations, while the number of political conversations from the rest of India is comparatively low. We have further analyzed the positive and negative sentiment of political conversations in these regions across the top three political parties.
  • 25.90 21.73 11.26 6.02 5.28 4.97 4.89 3.31 3.28 2.49 27.38 24.86 9.66 5.35 4.69 4.37 4.40 2.91 3.42 2.02 20.63 27.55 10.66 6.13 7.19 4.45 4.30 2.73 2.78 2.43 December January February State-wise Conversations - Congress 152,784 214,910 988,309Mentions There was a jump of 546% seen in the conversations from December to February for Congress.
  • Online Mentions for Congress Location Posts Delhi 26.4% Maharashtra 22.2% Karnataka 10.7% Location Posts Delhi 24.7% Maharashtra 22.5% Karnataka 12.8% Location Posts Delhi 27.6% Maharashtra 26.4% Karnataka 9.4% Location Posts Maharashtra 20.9% Delhi 19.9% Karnataka 11.1% Location Posts Delhi 25.3% Maharashtra 21% Karnataka 11.2% Location Posts Maharashtra 26.3% Delhi 18.8% Karnataka 10.2% Positive Sentiment Negative Sentiment • In Delhi, the positive sentiment has increased from December to January but decreased in February, while the negative sentiment has consistently increased. • In Maharashtra, the positive sentiment has increased from December to January but decreased in February, while the negative sentiment has consistently decreased. • In Karnataka, the positive sentiment has decreased from December to January but increased in February, while the negative sentiment has consistently decreased. December January February
  • There was an increase in negative conversations in Maharashtra in the month of February because of a rape that took place in Congress’ office in Kerala. Also Congress was mentioned in association with the RIL Gas Scam, which resulted into an outburst about the issue. Conversation Examples
  • 27.05 20.89 11.34 6.07 5.58 5.00 4.80 3.15 3.13 2.13 24.98 23.40 11.95 5.30 5.30 4.68 4.58 3.54 3.27 2.25 23.36 21.04 11.42 7.56 7.18 5.41 4.15 3.27 3.04 2.09 December January February State-wise Conversations - BJP 92,948 138,462 733,187Mentions There was a jump of 688% seen in the conversations from December to February for BJP.
  • Online Mentions for BJP Location Posts Delhi 27.2% Maharashtra 21.3% Karnataka 12% Location Posts Delhi 26.8% Maharashtra 22% Karnataka 12.3% Location Posts Delhi 23.7% Maharashtra 22.5% Karnataka 12.8% Location Posts Maharashtra 22.7% Delhi 21.2% Karnataka 9.1% Location Posts Delhi 25.9% Maharashtra 22.7% Karnataka 12.5% Location Posts Maharashtra 25.2% Delhi 20.3% Karnataka 10.2% Positive Sentiment Negative Sentiment • In Delhi, the positive as well as negative mentions show a consistent decrease. • In Maharashtra, the positive as well as negative mentions increased from December to January by decreased in February. • In Karnataka, the positive as well as negative mentions increased from December to January and decreased in February. December January February
  • Negative conversations have been around BJP being silent over the RIL Gas Scam. Also Narendra Modi mentioning that Pranab Mukherjee should have been named as PM, drew a lot of flak for BJP from across all quarters. Conversation Examples
  • State-wise Conversations - AAP 28.33 21.06 10.91 6.00 4.84 4.83 4.03 3.43 3.30 2.13 26.47 22.49 10.38 5.58 5.00 4.98 3.78 3.48 3.30 2.48 27.88 21.75 10.95 5.91 4.79 3.98 3.91 3.83 3.09 2.29 December January February 83,720 131,941 341,964Mentions There was a jump of 308% seen in the conversations from December to February for AAP.
  • Online Mentions for AAP Location Posts Delhi 28.4% Maharashtra 20.8% Karnataka 11.5% Location Posts Delhi 27.3% Maharashtra 22.2% Karnataka 11.4% Location Posts Delhi 25.7% Maharashtra 20.5% Karnataka 12.8% Location Posts Delhi 25% Maharashtra 23.6% Karnataka 12% Location Posts Delhi 29.7% Maharashtra 21.2% Karnataka 11% Location Posts Maharashtra 24.8% Delhi 19.9% Karnataka 12.3% Positive Sentiment Negative Sentiment • In Delhi, the positive mentions consistently decreased from December to February while the negative mentions increased from December to January and decreased in February. • In Maharashtra, the positive mentions decreased from December to January and increased in February while negative mentions consistently decreased. • In Karnataka, the positive mentions increased from December to January and decreased in February while the negative mentions decreased from December to January and increased in February. December January February
  • Conversation Examples Delhites felt that Kejriwal did not live up to his promises and has ruined the state. They also felt that the RIL Gas Scam expose was to gain political mileage and that it targeted only specific party members.
  • Online Conversations about Political Parties Online conversations around the top three political parties have been analyzed to identify the positive and negative words that each party is associated with. These words (buzz words) are the ones that have been mentioned the most, in association with the name of the particular party, in online conversations. The total number of posts refers to the number of posts on Facebook, Twitter, as well as other online platforms; that include the particular buzz word and the name of the political party in the same context.
  • Positive Buzz around Congress Words % Posts support 41.14 leader 24.41 candidate 14.58 power 19.88 Total Mentions – 26,974 Percentage of posts for the top positive buzz words Some people feel that Rahul Gandhi is a dynamic leader and is the future of the nation. Die-hard Congress supporters believe in him for a progressive India. Positive words that Congress is associated with: support, leader, vote, candidate, power
  • Negative Buzz around Congress Words % Posts corruption 38.84 protest 16.27 defeat 15.20 problem 7.62 expose 5.69 Total Mentions – 35,395 Percentage of posts for the top negative buzz words There has been a lot of discussion about Congress focusing on scams rather than the development of the country. Rahul Gandhi’s comments on the 1984 riots drew a lot of criticism from all quarters. Negative words that Congress is associated with: corruption, defeat, protest, problem, expose
  • Positives Negatives Examples of Conversation
  • Positive Buzz around BJP Words % Posts leader 34.59 support 31.41 development 17.27 inspire 6.21 admire 5.30 responsible 5.22 Total Mentions – 28,336 Percentage of posts for the top positive buzz words There is hope in the country that BJP will bring in development in India and Narendra Modi is the leader who will inspire the change. Positive words that BJP is associated with: leader, support, development, inspire, admire, responsible
  • Negative Buzz around BJP Words % Posts corruption 24.46 corrupt 16.20 expose 11.27 cheatercongbjp 11.04 opposition 10.47 blame 9.82 rilgasscam 8.46 Total Mentions – 22,902 Percentage of posts for the top negative buzz words There was criticism around BJP for being silent on their alleged involvement in the RIL Gas scam. Negative words that BJP is associated with: corruption, corrupt, expose, cheatercongbjp, opposition
  • Examples of Conversation Positives Negatives
  • Positive Buzz around AAP Words % Posts reformist 38.23 leader 13.52 honesty 12.83 visionary 9.36 powerful 9.22 Total Mentions – 11,519 Percentage of posts for the top positive buzz words Aam Aadmi party leaders have received a lot of good comments for being honest and powerful visionaries, reforming the country, and working towards a better future through their efforts. Positive words that AAP is associated with: reformist, leader, honesty, visionary, powerful
  • Negative Buzz around AAP Words % Posts resignation 5332 protest 4351 expose 1610 bhagodakejri 1072 liar 838 Total Mentions – 13,997 Percentage of posts for the top negative buzz words People were angry with Kejriwal for not fulfilling promises and termed his resignation as an escapist move. There were protests by Aam Aadmi Sena outside Kejriwal’s house which drew a lot of negative attention. Negative words that AAP is associated with: resignation, protest, expose, bhagodakejri, liar.
  • Examples of Conversation Positives Negatives
  • Topics % Posts pepper spray 44.99 telangana 20.76 impasse 6.36 anarchy 6.16 peaceful dharna 5.75 street vendor 3.16 Total Mentions – 8,721 Buzz Around The Parliament The pepper spray attack by Congress MP Ladgapati was quite talked about. The approval of the Telegana Bill and the passing of the Street Vendors’ Bill gained a lot of traction. Also Kejriwal being called an anarchist for a peaceful dharna was discussed quite a lot.
  • Conversation Examples
  • 29.42% 70.58% This graph shows the percentage-wise distribution across political parties; of the total positive political conversations from men and women. The support for BJP is higher than that for Congress and AAP from men, while there is higher favorability towards Congress, from women. Gender-wise Support for Political Parties 23.74% 76.26% 23.79% 76.21% Congress BJP AAP
  • Sentiment Analysis The online conversations around the top three political parties have been analyzed to arrive at the volume of positive and negative mentions for each, as well as their percentages with respect to the total number of conversations. A month-wise analysis has been carried out in order to track the change in sentiment, month-on-month. Posts/Conversations refer to any online platforms.
  • Sentiment Analysis - December From a minister being caught taking a bribe, to failure to install water meters, to corruption, were the prime reason for negative conversations around Congress. Corruption and the BJP’s inefficiency in the past resulted in a higher percentage of negative buzz around them. Congress BJP AAP Negative Positive 51.7 % 48.3 % 51.2 % 48.8 % 42.8 % 57.2 %
  • Conversation Examples
  • Sentiment Analysis - January Arrests of BJP leaders for taking dowry, and murder of a RTI activist, resulted in strong negative conversation around BJP. AAP not living up to people’s expectations was the prime reason why there were a high number of negative conversations around them. Congress BJP AAP Negative Positive 46.9 % 53.1 % 51.4 % 48.6 % 49.9 % 50.1 %
  • Conversation Examples
  • Sentiment Analysis - February There were 2 AAP members who were caught in an immigration fraud in UK, thus increasing negative conversations. BJP’s silence over the RIL Gas scam drew a lot of flak from people. Congress BJP AAP Negative Positive 52.8 % 47.2 % 54.3 % 45.7 % 65.5 % 34.5 %
  • Conversation Examples
  • Sentiment Analysis Over Time Congress BJP AAP Congress: There has been a mixed response in the sentiment for Congress over the three months, but the sentiment is mostly on the negative side. BJP: The negative sentiment shows an increase throughout the period, while the positive sentiment shows a consistent decrease. AAP: There has been a consistent increase in negative sentiment which has skyrocketed to 65.5% in the month of February. 52.8 46.9 51.7 47.2 53.1 48.3 0 50 100 February January December 54.3 51.9 51.2 45.7 48.1 48.8 0 50 100 February January December 65.5 49.9 42.8 34.5 50.1 57.2 0 50 100 February January December
  • Top Issues Discussed on Twitter These are the top issues that have been discussed on Twitter over the last three months Mentions – 12,546 56.09 53.13 77.88 50.00 56.15 43.91 46.87 22.12 50.00 43.85 0.00 20.00 40.00 60.00 80.00 100.00 BJP Ineffective TMC Hazare BJP VKS Join BJP LJP Ally Congress TRS Merge Retweets Tweets
  • Top Issues Discussed on Facebook These are the top issues that have been discussed on Facebook over the last three months Mentions – 3,938 35.20 19.68 9.90 9.42 8.99 8.46 8.35 0.00 10.00 20.00 30.00 40.00 Aap Ambani Charges AAP Govt Form AAP Parrikar attack Cong Lalu Alliance TMC Hazare Aap mining investigation BJP Impotent % of Posts
  • Conversation Examples
  • Top 10 Politicians According to Popularity Narendra Modi, with the highest fan following across Facebook, Twitter, Google+, and YouTube emerges as the most popular politician on social media. Owing to a higher Twitter following, and more YouTube subscribers and video views; Arvind Kejriwal comes second, followed by Shashi Tharoor who has a high number of fans and followers on Facebook and Twitter respectively.
  • Top 10 Politicians According to Popularity Standing Politicians Facebook No. of fans Facebook Engagement Rate (%) Twitter No. of Followers Tweets Google+ No. of followers Most no. of views for a video Youtube Subscribers Weightage Score 1 Narendra Modi 1,04,02,636 9.41 33,76,337 3,902 11,76,355 7,35,960 1,22,665 35,89,620 2 Arvind Kejriwal 42,60,584 6 13,57,004 2,472 2,008 50,330 1,966 14,09,851 3 Shashi Tharoor 1,21,621 3.21 20,89,894 21,279 476 32,672 191 5,57,253 4 Manmohan Singh 4,60,479 1 10,82,350 4,295 0 2,20,120 51 4,07,939 5 Sushma Swaraj 2,09,190 0 9,25,712 3,005 0 1,89,921 588 3,02,927 6 Rajnath Singh 9,74,494 20.5 1,75,314 445 694 214 8 2,87,533 7 Arun Jaitley 496,788 18.35 109,392 318 0 12,448 75 1,52,815 8 Mamata Banerjee 5,94,516 8.92 0 0 0 0 0 1,48,630 9 Omar Abdullah 61,801 6.36 4,44,260 6,388 0 0 0 1,26,835 10 Akhilesh Yadav 402,537 6.59 38429 75 0 29,013 8 1,13,148 Weightage 0.25x 0.1x 0.25x 0.05x 0.05x 0.1x 0.1x
  • Basis of Calculation Total weightage score has been arrived at by taking the important parameters of each social network, assigning it a weightage on the basis of the importance of that factor, and then taking a total of each factor multiplied by its weightage. Engagement rate for Facebook has been calculated by dividing the number of people talking about the page by the number of fans, multiplied by 100.
  • Top 10 Active Politicians on Facebook 9.41 6.28 3.21 0.9 20.518.35 8.92 6.36 6.59 Engagement Rate (%) Narendra Modi Arvind Kejriwal Shashi Tharoor Manmohan Singh Sushma Swaraj Rajnath Singh Arun Jaitley Mamata Banerjee Omar Abdullah Akhilesh Yadav Rajnath Singh has the highest engagement rate, 20.5%, followed by Arun Jaitley and Narendra Modi who have engagement rates of 18.35% and 9.41% respectively.
  • Top 10 Active Politicians on Twitter Shashi Tharoor with 21,279 tweets is the most engaged politician on Twitter. Omar Abdullah with 6,388 tweets and Manmohan Singh with 4,295 tweets are 2nd and 3rd respectively. Based on the number of tweets 21,279 6,388 4,295 3,902 3,005 2,542 2,472 1,912 445 318
  • Top 10 Active Politicians on Twitter Narendra Modi dominates the list with 33 lakh followers followed by Shashi Tharoor with 20 lakh followers Based on number of followers 3,376,337 2,089,894 1,357,004 1,082,350 925,712 444,260 175,314 140,576 119,222 109,392
  • Looking Ahead The initial positive buzz for AAP seems to have declined post his forming the government and then resigning as Chief Minister of Delhi. Rajnath Singh has moved from position three to position one when it comes to being the most engaged politician on social media and Arvind Kejriwal has been ousted from the list of top three most engaged politicians. As the run up to the polls continues, there have been events like Mamta Banerjee’s meeting with Anna Hazare, Rahul Gandhi’s interview with Times Now, exposes of supposed chinks in AAP’s armour, some members not being happy with the seats they have been allocated, etc. which have generated a fair amount of online conversations. An analysis of these and a look into how much they have impacted online India’s political disposition will form the bases of our next report.
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  • About Germin8 Germin8 is a Big Data analytics company focused on helping you understand and act in real time on the gazillions of conversations by your stakeholders and provide actionable industry insights through social listening. Explic8 ™ is Germin8's stakeholder insights and engagement platform that collects and analyses conversations in real time from public sources and private sources, and converts them into industry-specific actionable insights and leads. Contact Details: contact@germin8.com Sales@germin8.com Twitter - @germin8 Facebook - facebook.com/germinait