Themes from The Next Hundred Million by Joel Kotkin andThe Second Worldby ParagKhanna<br />EsthelaCaito<br />History 141<br />Professor M. Arguello<br />
The Next Hundred Million<br />400 Million Americans<br />Kotkin believes that America’s population will grow dramatically- from 300 million to 400 million.<br />This increase will occur mainly in Asians and Hispanics. <br />The Cities of Aspiration<br />Major U.S. cities are going to grow & Los Angeles will be the template. <br />
The Resurgent Heartland <br />The Archipelago of Villages<br />There will be a focus of suburban communities that have both urban and rural characteristics. <br />People will start to live in America’s interior regions (the “Heartland”) where there are plenty of good resources. <br />
Post Ethnic America<br />The 21st Century Community<br />Racial barriers will be immensely diminished.<br />Sometime around 2050, non- Hispanic whites will be the minority. <br />The concept of family and community will continue to be a very important thing in the next few decades. <br />Religion will also continue to be important.<br />
America in 2050<br />Kotkin believes that America will be able to self- renew itself through its high fertility, great diversity, and huge amount of physical assets.<br />The U.S. will continue to be very different from other countries because of its big emphasis on democracy. <br />U.S. and the rest of the world: <br />Kotkin believes that China and India will be America’s economic competitors, but they will not become stronger than the U.S. economically or influentially.<br />
The Second World<br />Khanna believes that the United States, The European Union, and China will emerge as major global powers. <br />He believes that these powers will try to gain the natural resources and potential wealth of second- world countries. <br />The great powers will try to gain partnership with the economies of Latin America, the former Soviet bloc, the Middle East, and Asia.<br />
In order to get partnership, the major global powers will try to tempt or invite the second world countries.<br />The U.S. offers military protection and the promise of democracy and human rights.<br />The European Union offers the membership in the world’s most successful economic club, but also asks countries to go into some reforms. <br />China offers trade, investment, and infrastructure projects- without asking the countries to go through any reforms. <br />
“To a large extent, the future of the second world hinges on how it relates to the three superpowers, and the future of the superpowers depends on how they manage the second world.” – ParagKhanna<br />Khannalikes the concept of other countries exercising absolute authority rather than democracy. <br />
Khanna believes there are some ills afflicting the U.S. including its “Blind faith in its innovative capacity and the virtues of the free market” (p. 334). <br />He believes the U.S. has a highly uncertain future; it may have economic decline, and may have less strength in international influence. <br />Unlike Kotkin, Khanna believes that America will not be able to simply renew itself just because it wants to. <br />
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