September 2013 Greater Boston Real Estate Market Trends Report
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September 2013 Greater Boston Real Estate Market Trends Report

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Buyers reacting to the market and the ongoing concern of rising interest rates in the late spring/early summer resulted in the most closed home sales in a September since 2005. Prices continue to move ...

Buyers reacting to the market and the ongoing concern of rising interest rates in the late spring/early summer resulted in the most closed home sales in a September since 2005. Prices continue to move up because demand for available homes to buy is outpacing supply. Interest rates are still low and buyers are qualified and waiting. The market needs homeowners to commit to selling to get us to full recovery.

• September single-family home sales – Up 17.2% over last year. Six straight months of increases.
• Most September closed sales since 2005 when there were 4,744 sales (4,289 in Sept. 2013)
• September Single-family median prices were UP 11.9% to $325,000. Twelve straight months of increases.
• September condo sales UP 19.3% and median prices UP 7.8% ($305,000)
Typical to see a August-to-September sales decrease

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September 2013 Greater Boston Real Estate Market Trends Report September 2013 Greater Boston Real Estate Market Trends Report Presentation Transcript

  • Monthly Indicators A RESEARCH TOOL PROVIDED BY THE GREATER BOSTON ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® September 2013 Quick Facts Do you hear that? Hummmmm. That's the delightful sound of normalcy. Buyers are buying, sellers are selling, lenders are lending and builders are building. Sure, this varies from region to region and even city to city within a region or state, but by and large, things are returning to normal. All major indices showcase fairly robust price recovery. Consumer confidence isn't what it could be, but it's sufficient for now. New Listings in the Greater Boston region were up 4.7 percent for detached homes and 10.4 percent for condominiums. Closed Sales increased 21.0 percent for detached homes and 17.5 percent for condominiums. The Median Sales Price was up 16.4 percent to $501,000 for single-family properties and 9.3 percent to $410,000 for condominiums. Months Supply of Inventory decreased 41.0 percent for single-family units and 40.6 percent for townhouse-condo units. There's some evidence that it's not just first-time home buyers fueling the recovery. Move-up buyers are also pulling their weight. Some baby-boomers are ready to look for less space, nudging Junior out of the basement. The pizza boxes and late-night video games get old, plus there's a fresh crop of buyers looking for a bigger space to raise their own little darlings. + 19.3% + 21.0% + 17.5% Year-Over-Year (YoY) Change in Closed Sales All Properties Year-Over-Year (YoY) Change in Closed Sales Single-Family Only Year-Over-Year (YoY) Change in Closed Sales Condominium Only Single-Family Market Overview Condominium Market Overview Closed Sales Median Sales Price Housing Affordability Index Inventory of Homes for Sale Months Supply of Inventory Days On Market Until Sale Percent of Original List Price Received Pending Sales New Listings City of Boston Overview 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 Click on desired metric to jump to that page. Data is refreshed regularly to capture changes in market activity so figures shown may be different than previously reported. Current as of October 16, 2013. All data from MLS Property Information Network, Inc. Provided by Greater Boston Association of REALTORS® and the Massachusetts Association of REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing.
  • Single-Family Market Overview Key market metrics for the current month and year-to-date figures for Single-Family Homes Only. Key Metrics Historical Sparklines Sep-2012 Sep-2013 Closed Sales +/– YTD 2012 YTD 2013 +/– 766 9-2012 9 2012 9-2011 9-2012 9-2011 9-2012 9-2011 9-2012 9-2011 9-2012 9-2011 9-2012 - 28.6% -- -- -- 3.0 - 41.0% -- -- -- 58 - 35.1% 100 69 - 30.8% 97.3% + 2.9% 94.4% 97.2% + 3.0% 910 + 4.1% 8,868 9,663 + 9.0% 1,486 + 4.7% 12,665 12,682 + 0.1% 9-2013 New Listings 9-2010 2,802 9-2013 Pending Sales 9-2010 - 13.5% 9-2013 Percent of Original List Price Received 9-2010 98 9-2013 Days on Market Until Sale 9-2010 114 9-2013 9 2013 Months Supply of Inventory 9-2010 - 19.0% 1,419 9-2011 9 2011 98 9-2013 Inventory of Homes for Sale 9-2010 9 2010 + 7.8% 874 9-2012 $500,000 94.6% 9-2011 $464,000 9-2013 Housing Affordability Index 9-2010 + 16.4% 89 9-2012 $501,000 5.1 9-2011 + 8.5% 9-2013 Median Sales Price 9-2010 8,940 3,927 9-2012 8,239 121 9-2011 + 21.0% $430,475 9-2010 927 9-2013 All data from MLS Property Information Network, Inc. Provided by the Greater Boston Association of REALTORS® and the Massachusetts Association of REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 2
  • Condominium Market Overview Key market metrics for the current month and year-to-date figures for Condominium Properties Only. Key Metrics Historical Sparklines Sep-2012 Sep-2013 Closed Sales +/– YTD 2012 YTD 2013 +/– 753 9-2012 9 2012 9-2011 9-2012 9-2011 9-2012 9-2011 9-2012 9-2011 9-2012 9-2011 9-2012 - 30.2% -- -- -- 2.1 - 40.6% -- -- -- 50 - 41.0% 88 54 - 39.2% 99.0% + 2.7% 95.7% 99.0% + 3.4% 836 + 12.5% 8,001 8,817 + 10.2% 1,273 + 10.4% 10,719 10,898 + 1.7% 9-2013 New Listings 9-2010 1,841 9-2013 Pending Sales 9-2010 - 11.7% 9-2013 Percent of Original List Price Received 9-2010 120 9-2013 Days on Market Until Sale 9-2010 136 9-2013 9 2013 Months Supply of Inventory 9-2010 - 14.0% 1,153 9-2011 9 2011 118 9-2013 Inventory of Homes for Sale 9-2010 9 2010 + 6.0% 743 9-2012 $402,600 96.4% 9-2011 $379,900 9-2013 Housing Affordability Index 9-2010 + 9.3% 85 9-2012 $410,000 3.5 9-2011 + 9.3% 9-2013 Median Sales Price 9-2010 8,128 2,637 9-2012 7,436 137 9-2011 + 17.5% $375,000 9-2010 885 9-2013 All data from MLS Property Information Network, Inc. Provided by the Greater Boston Association of REALTORS® and the Massachusetts Association of REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 3 View slide
  • Closed Sales A count of the actual sales that have closed in a given month. September Year to Date Single-Family YoY Change Condominium YoY Change Oct-2012 927 8,239 8,128 792 + 28.8% 712 + 39.1% Nov-2012 8,940 885 907 + 32.4% 760 + 35.0% 2012 2013 -1.2% +21.0% Single-Family 2011 2012 2013 +16.4% +17.5% Condominium 2011 2012 2013 +18.8% +8.5% Single-Family 2011 2012 +19.9% +9.3% 431 - 7.1% 436 + 13.5% 631 - 2.6% 629 + 3.6% 779 + 4.8% 808 + 6.6% 1,120 + 11.4% 1,072 + 5.9% 1,500 - 0.7% 1,248 - 1.3% 1,498 + 17.1% 1,258 + 20.7% 1,448 + 11.4% 1,276 + 6.0% Sep-2013 2013 + 19.6% + 25.2% Aug-2013 2011 769 516 Jul-2013 6,203 + 11.8% + 15.9% Jun-2013 6,933 647 824 Feb-2013 7,436 606 May-2013 753 Dec-2012 Apr-2013 766 Jan-2013 Mar-2013 775 927 + 21.0% 885 + 17.5% 11,463 + 11.6% 10,369 + 13.3% Total Condominium Historical Closed Sales Activity Single-Family Condominium 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 Jan-2003 Jan-2004 Jan-2005 Jan-2006 Jan-2007 Jan-2008 Jan-2009 Jan-2010 Jan-2011 Jan-2012 Jan-2013 All data from MLS Property Information Network, Inc. Provided by the Greater Boston Association of REALTORS® and the Massachusetts Association of REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 4 View slide
  • Median Sales Price Median price point for all closed sales, not accounting for seller concessions, in a given month. September Year to Date -4.3% +16.4% Single-Family +2.0% 2011 +9.3% 2012 2013 -0.2% Condominium $381,000 + 10.4% + 6.2% $372,500 + 4.9% Feb-2013 $429,900 + 8.8% $350,375 - 5.3% $430,000 + 3.7% $405,500 + 19.3% $475,000 + 13.5% $388,250 + 4.5% $499,900 + 7.5% $410,000 + 7.6% $541,500 + 7.8% $420,000 + 5.0% $534,900 + 4.9% $401,000 + 3.6% Aug-2013 2013 + 6.8% Jul-2013 $361,000 2012 $470,000 $430,000 Jun-2013 2011 + 8.2% May-2013 2013 + 5.6% $380,000 Apr-2013 2012 $368,133 + 5.9% $520,000 + 6.1% $416,000 + 9.5% Sep-2013 $501,000 + 16.4% $410,000 + 9.3% Median $487,500 + 7.9% $396,000 + 5.9% $402,600 $367,500 $375,000 2011 + 10.3% Jan-2013 $410,000 $430,250 $447,500 Dec-2012 $465,000 $464,000 $430,475 YoY Change Mar-2013 $450,000 Condominium Nov-2012 $500,000 YoY Change Oct-2012 $501,000 Single-Family 2011 +7.8% $379,900 2013 +5.2% Single-Family 2012 +6.0% Condominium Historical Median Sales Price Single-Family Condominium $550,000 $500,000 $450,000 $400,000 $350,000 $300,000 $250,000 Jan-2003 Jan-2004 Jan-2005 Jan-2006 Jan-2007 Jan-2008 Jan-2009 Jan-2010 Jan-2011 Jan-2012 Jan-2013 All data from MLS Property Information Network, Inc. Provided by the Greater Boston Association of REALTORS® and the Massachusetts Association of REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 5
  • Housing Affordability Index This index measures housing affordability for the region. An index of 120 means the median household income was 120% of what is necessary to qualify for the median-priced home under prevailing interest rates. A higher number means greater affordability. September Year to Date Single-Family +17.2% -19.0% Single-Family 2011 2012 2013 +10.4% 2011 -14.0% 2013 +13.1% Condominium 2012 -13.5% Single-Family 2011 2012 2013 +7.6% -11.7% + 6.8% 136 + 3.6% + 3.7% 142 + 4.8% 122 - 2.0% 146 + 11.1% 121 + 3.4% 128 - 8.9% 113 - 4.7% 135 + 2.7% 104 - 5.0% 124 - 5.0% 90 - 11.5% 114 - 9.2% 92 - 9.9% 120 - 8.6% Aug-2013 2013 113 125 Jul-2013 2012 Dec-2012 Jun-2013 2011 + 4.6% May-2013 98 + 7.3% 135 Apr-2013 100 98 139 + 6.7% Mar-2013 114 + 3.2% 117 Feb-2013 103 118 120 120 Jan-2013 126 124 121 YoY Change Nov-2012 136 Condominium Oct-2012 137 YoY Change 93 - 11.6% 115 - 13.9% Sep-2013 98 - 19.0% 118 - 14.0% Average 109 -3.3% 129 -2.1% Condominium Historical Housing Affordability Index Single-Family Condominium 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 Jan-2004 Jan-2005 Jan-2006 Jan-2007 Jan-2008 Jan-2009 Jan-2010 Jan-2011 Jan-2012 Jan-2013 All data from MLS Property Information Network, Inc. Provided by the Greater Boston Association of REALTORS® and the Massachusetts Association of REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 6
  • Inventory of Homes for Sale The number of properties available for sale in active status at the end of a given month. September Single-Family - 38.3% 2,109 - 39.1% 2,424 - 30.7% 1,621 - 40.9% 2,419 - 30.2% 1,679 - 40.8% 2,539 - 32.1% 1,796 - 40.3% Mar-2013 2,502 - 40.4% 1,833 - 45.8% Apr-2013 2,891 - 35.0% 2,084 - 38.9% May-2013 3,140 - 31.4% 2,157 - 34.9% Jun-2013 3,103 - 28.2% 2,103 - 31.9% Jul-2013 1,841 2,438 - 27.5% Jan-2013 2,637 - 28.0% Feb-2013 2,802 3,651 3,141 Dec-2012 4,180 YoY Change Nov-2012 3,927 Condominium Oct-2012 5,312 YoY Change 2,881 - 27.8% 1,903 - 33.2% Aug-2013 2011 2012 -26.1% Single-Family 2011 -28.6% 2,701 - 28.0% 1,718 - 32.3% 2012 2013 Sep-2013 2,802 - 28.6% 1,841 - 30.2% -36.9% Condominium 2013 -30.2% Average 2,850 - 30.7% 1,940 - 37.4% Historical Inventory of Homes for Sale Single-Family Condominium 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 Jan-2003 Jan-2004 Jan-2005 Jan-2006 Jan-2007 Jan-2008 Jan-2009 Jan-2010 Jan-2011 Jan-2012 Jan-2013 All data from MLS Property Information Network, Inc. Provided by the Greater Boston Association of REALTORS® and the Massachusetts Association of REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 7
  • Months Supply of Inventory The inventory of homes for sale at the end of a given month, divided by the average monthly pending sales from the last 12 months. September Single-Family - 55.6% 2.8 - 54.9% 2.9 - 38.0% 2.1 - 50.6% 4.0 - 39.8% 3.3 - 52.7% 5.9 - 26.9% 4.1 - 47.4% Mar-2013 4.0 - 38.8% 2.9 - 47.7% Apr-2013 3.7 - 38.0% 2.6 - 42.7% May-2013 2.8 - 38.4% 2.0 - 38.5% Jun-2013 2.1 - 27.6% 1.7 - 31.0% Jul-2013 2.1 3.4 - 45.2% Feb-2013 3.0 - 44.1% 3.5 Jan-2013 3.5 4.6 Dec-2012 5.1 YoY Change Nov-2012 6.5 Condominium Oct-2012 6.9 YoY Change 1.9 - 38.3% 1.5 - 44.7% Aug-2013 2011 2012 -25.2% Single-Family -41.0% 1.9 - 35.4% 1.3 - 36.2% 2012 2013 Sep-2013 3.0 - 41.0% 2.1 - 40.6% -45.8% Condominium 2013 -40.6% Average 3.1 - 40.1% 2.4 - 47.6% 2011 Historical Months Supply of Inventory Single-Family Condominium 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Jan-2004 Jan-2005 Jan-2006 Jan-2007 Jan-2008 Jan-2009 Jan-2010 Jan-2011 Jan-2012 Jan-2013 All data from MLS Property Information Network, Inc. Provided by the Greater Boston Association of REALTORS® and the Massachusetts Association of REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 8
  • Days on Market Until Sale Average number of days between when a property is listed and when an offer is accepted in a given month. September Year to Date 2012 2013 -12.0% -35.1% Single-Family 2011 2012 2013 -18.1% -41.0% Condominium 2011 2012 2013 -2.6% -30.8% Single-Family 2011 2012 -15.6% - 29.5% 111 - 17.2% 95 - 22.9% 108 - 17.5% 72 - 39.0% 94 - 22.1% 63 - 35.1% 75 - 22.1% 51 - 40.4% 56 - 37.3% 43 - 42.4% 47 - 41.9% 39 - 45.9% 49 - 44.3% 40 - 47.6% 58 - 35.1% 50 - 41.0% Total -39.2% - 30.1% 88 Sep-2013 2013 84 - 16.5% Aug-2013 2011 - 12.4% Jul-2013 50 97 109 Apr-2013 54 - 29.9% Mar-2013 58 - 11.5% 77 Jan-2013 69 84 - 17.9% Feb-2013 85 - 17.4% 89 Dec-2012 88 90 Nov-2012 104 100 YoY Change Jun-2013 89 102 Condominium May-2013 103 YoY Change Oct-2012 101 Single-Family 74 - 27.1% 56 - 33.6% Condominium Historical Days on Market Until Sale Single-Family Condominium 150 130 110 90 70 50 30 Jan-2003 Jan-2004 Jan-2005 Jan-2006 Jan-2007 Jan-2008 Jan-2009 Jan-2010 Jan-2011 Jan-2012 Jan-2013 All data from MLS Property Information Network, Inc. Provided by the Greater Boston Association of REALTORS® and the Massachusetts Association of REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 9
  • Percent of Original List Price Received Percentage found when dividing a property’s sales price by its original list price, then taking the average for all properties sold in a given month, not accounting for seller concessions. September Year to Date +1.5% +2.9% Single-Family +2.3% +2.7% Condominium 2011 2012 2013 +1.0% +3.0% Single-Family 2011 2012 +1.7% 96.2% + 3.4% + 3.7% 95.9% + 3.1% 94.1% + 3.2% 96.6% + 3.5% 95.2% + 2.4% 97.6% + 3.8% 96.7% + 3.4% 98.8% + 3.3% 97.8% + 2.6% 99.5% + 3.5% 98.3% + 3.1% 99.7% + 3.5% 98.1% + 2.4% 99.9% + 3.5% 97.9% + 3.2% 99.7% + 3.5% 97.3% + 2.9% 99.0% + 2.7% Average +3.4% + 2.2% Sep-2013 2013 94.2% 93.8% Aug-2013 2013 Dec-2012 Jul-2013 2012 + 2.5% Jun-2013 2011 + 2.4% 96.2% May-2013 2013 95.9% + 2.4% Apr-2013 2012 + 2.8% Mar-2013 2011 94.3% 94.6% Feb-2013 94.1% 95.7% YoY Change Jan-2013 97.2% 93.4% 94.4% 99.0% Condominium Nov-2012 99.0% 94.2% 96.4% YoY Change Oct-2012 97.3% 93.2% 94.6% Single-Family 96.5% + 2.8% 98.3% + 3.2% Condominium Historical Percent of Original List Price Received Single-Family Condominium 101% 99% 97% 95% 93% 91% 89% Jan-2003 Jan-2004 Jan-2005 Jan-2006 Jan-2007 Jan-2008 Jan-2009 Jan-2010 Jan-2011 Jan-2012 Jan-2013 All data from MLS Property Information Network, Inc. Provided by the Greater Boston Association of REALTORS® and the Massachusetts Association of REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 10
  • Pending Sales A count of the properties in UAG status between the first and last day in a given month, regardless of current status (based on Off Market Date). September Year to Date Single-Family YoY Change Condominium YoY Change Oct-2012 874 836 9,663 743 884 + 19.1% 794 + 34.3% Nov-2012 910 692 + 12.7% 602 + 9.5% Dec-2012 8,817 679 8,001 7,276 538 6,403 514 + 8.7% 462 + 11.3% Jan-2013 635 + 3.8% 661 + 19.5% Feb-2013 8,868 717 - 5.7% 716 - 4.1% Mar-2013 1,198 + 3.8% 1,178 + 10.3% Apr-2013 1,412 + 13.8% 1,282 + 9.6% May-2013 1,525 + 17.7% 1,281 + 8.5% Jun-2013 2012 2013 +28.7% +4.1% Single-Family 2011 2012 2013 +38.1% +12.5% Condominium 2011 2012 2013 +21.9% +9.0% Single-Family 2011 2012 +25.0% +10.2% 1,104 + 10.5% + 7.2% 971 + 20.5% 938 + 18.9% 788 + 7.4% Sep-2013 2013 + 9.8% 1,021 Aug-2013 2011 1,307 Jul-2013 910 + 4.1% 836 + 12.5% 11,753 + 9.9% 10,675 + 11.7% Total Condominium Historical Pending Sales Activity Single-Family Condominium 2,200 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 Jan-2003 Jan-2004 Jan-2005 Jan-2006 Jan-2007 Jan-2008 Jan-2009 Jan-2010 Jan-2011 Jan-2012 Jan-2013 All data from MLS Property Information Network, Inc. Provided by the Greater Boston Association of REALTORS® and the Massachusetts Association of REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 11
  • New Listings A count of the properties that have been newly listed on the market in a given month. September Year to Date Single-Family 366 - 19.0% 319 - 17.8% 903 - 6.3% 916 - 4.0% 1,029 - 22.0% 966 - 15.3% 1,395 - 30.5% 1,367 - 21.5% 2,052 + 14.1% 1,696 + 13.1% May-2013 2,044 + 14.6% 1,547 + 11.5% Jun-2013 1,544 + 14.3% 1,251 + 8.6% Jul-2013 1,153 - 10.4% Apr-2013 1,273 - 1.9% 561 Jan-2013 10,719 10,898 1,275 883 - 3.4% Dec-2012 11,697 1,486 - 4.5% 648 Mar-2013 1,419 1,079 Nov-2012 Feb-2013 1,580 Condominium Oct-2012 12,940 12,665 12,682 YoY Change YoY Change 1,164 + 13.9% 1,006 + 11.4% Aug-2013 2011 2012 2013 -10.2% +4.7% Single-Family 2011 2012 2013 -9.6% +10.4% Condominium 2011 2012 2013 -2.1% +0.1% Single-Family 2011 2012 -8.4% + 6.4% 876 + 10.9% 1,486 + 4.7% 1,273 + 10.4% Total +1.7% 1,065 Sep-2013 2013 14,775 - 1.0% 12,661 + 0.2% Condominium Historical New Listing Activity Single-Family Condominium 2,750 2,500 2,250 2,000 1,750 1,500 1,250 1,000 750 500 250 0 Jan-2003 Jan-2004 Jan-2005 Jan-2006 Jan-2007 Jan-2008 Jan-2009 Jan-2010 Jan-2011 Jan-2012 Jan-2013 All data from MLS Property Information Network, Inc. Provided by the Greater Boston Association of REALTORS® and the Massachusetts Association of REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 12
  • City of Boston – Market Overview Key market metrics for the current month and year-to-date figures for the City of Boston. Key Metrics Historical Sparklines Sep-2012 Sep-2013 Closed Sales +/– YTD 2012 YTD 2013 +/– 404 9-2012 9 2012 9-2011 9-2012 9-2011 9-2012 9-2011 9-2012 9-2011 9-2012 9-2011 9-2012 - 22.6% -- -- -- 2.0 - 38.0% -- -- -- 45 - 40.5% 85 46 - 45.3% 98.3% + 2.3% 95.5% 98.8% + 3.4% 463 + 8.9% 4,471 4,820 + 7.8% 750 + 17.2% 6,040 6,108 + 1.1% 9-2013 New Listings 9-2010 1,021 9-2013 Pending Sales 9-2010 - 13.5% 9-2013 Percent of Original List Price Received 9-2010 98 9-2013 Days on Market Until Sale 9-2010 114 9-2013 9 2013 Months Supply of Inventory 9-2010 - 19.0% 640 9-2011 9 2011 98 9-2013 Inventory of Homes for Sale 9-2010 9 2010 + 8.6% 425 9-2012 $434,500 96.0% 9-2011 $400,000 9-2013 Housing Affordability Index 9-2010 + 11.4% 76 9-2012 $437,500 3.3 9-2011 + 5.4% 9-2013 Median Sales Price 9-2010 4,436 1,319 9-2012 4,207 121 9-2011 + 24.8% $392,750 9-2010 504 9-2013 All data from MLS Property Information Network, Inc. Provided by the Greater Boston Association of REALTORS® and the Massachusetts Association of REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 13