November 2013 Greater Boston Real Estate Market Trends Report
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November 2013 Greater Boston Real Estate Market Trends Report

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After an active summer and early fall buyer activity slowed as inventory of available homes continued to ...

After an active summer and early fall buyer activity slowed as inventory of available homes continued to
go down. Prices continue to move up because demand for available homes to buy is outpacing supply. Inventory continues to shrink from the same time the year before. What the market needs are
homeowners to commit to selling to get us to full recovery.
• November single-family home sales – Down 8.9% over last year.
• November Single-family median prices were UP 7.3% to $316,500. Fourteen straight months of increases.
• November condo sales Down 5.8% and median prices UP 3.5% ($295,000)
• Inventory in November Down 20.6% to 18,428 and Condominium homes available Down 27.7% to4,925
• SF listings added to the market in November UP 7.9% over last year. (3,954 from 3,663 in 2012)
• Condo listings added to the market up 3.5% over last year. (1,375 from 1,328 in 2012)

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  • 1. Monthly Indicators A RESEARCH TOOL PROVIDED BY THE GREATER BOSTON ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® November 2013 Quick Facts November was largely another encouraging month for residential real estate. Our attention has shifted from multiyear high prices and sales volumes to seller activity, inventory levels and building permits. And let's not forget the calendar effect. As families gather together, fewer house hunters are scheduling showings and writing offers. Watch for month-to-month activity to moderate while year-over-year comparisons remain strong. New Listings in the Greater Boston region were up 4.6 percent for detached homes and 0.2 percent for condominiums. Closed Sales decreased 12.1 percent for detached homes and 7.4 percent for condominiums. The Median Sales Price was up 6.4 percent to $475,000 for single-family properties and 7.9 percent to $410,000 for condominiums. Months Supply of Inventory decreased 20.0 percent for single-family units and 28.8 percent for townhouse-condo units. Recent economic and jobs data have surprised to the upside by exceeding expectations. This likely keeps the new Federal Reserve leadership on track for March 2014 tapering. Non-farm payrolls grew by 204,000 jobs in October, outperforming Wall Street expectations. In another bullish sign, August payrolls were revised upward to a 238,000 job gain – positive momentum that should support housing recovery. Just in time for the holidays. - 9.9% - 12.1% - 7.4% Year-Over-Year (YoY) Change in Closed Sales All Properties Year-Over-Year (YoY) Change in Closed Sales Single-Family Only Year-Over-Year (YoY) Change in Closed Sales Condominium Only Single-Family Market Overview Condominium Market Overview Closed Sales Median Sales Price Housing Affordability Index Inventory of Homes for Sale Months Supply of Inventory Days On Market Until Sale Percent of Original List Price Received Pending Sales New Listings City of Boston Overview 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 Click on desired metric to jump to that page. Data is refreshed regularly to capture changes in market activity so figures shown may be different than previously reported. Current as of December 16, 2013. All data from MLS Property Information Network, Inc. Provided by Greater Boston Association of REALTORS® and the Massachusetts Association of REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing.
  • 2. Single-Family Market Overview Key market metrics for the current month and year-to-date figures for Single-Family Homes Only. Key Metrics Historical Sparklines Nov-2012 Nov-2013 Closed Sales +/– YTD 2012 YTD 2013 +/– 902 11-2012 11 2012 11-2011 11-2012 11-2011 11-2012 11-2011 11-2012 11-2011 11-2012 11-2011 11-2012 - 29.7% -- -- -- 2.7 - 20.0% -- -- -- 65 - 26.9% 98 68 - 30.7% 96.2% + 1.7% 94.4% 97.1% + 2.9% 740 + 7.9% 10,369 11,165 + 7.7% 660 + 4.6% 14,039 14,306 + 1.9% 11-2013 New Listings 11-2010 2,132 11-2013 Pending Sales 11-2010 - 7.7% 11-2013 Percent of Original List Price Received 11-2010 106 11-2013 Days on Market Until Sale 11-2010 114 11-2013 11 2013 Months Supply of Inventory 11-2010 - 6.4% 631 11-2011 11 2011 109 11-2013 Inventory of Homes for Sale 11-2010 11 2010 + 8.0% 686 11-2012 $495,000 94.6% 11-2011 $458,250 11-2013 Housing Affordability Index 11-2010 + 6.4% 89 11-2012 $475,000 3.4 11-2011 + 6.6% 11-2013 Median Sales Price 11-2010 10,539 3,032 11-2012 9,888 117 11-2011 - 12.1% $446,550 11-2010 793 11-2013 All data from MLS Property Information Network, Inc. Provided by the Greater Boston Association of REALTORS® and the Massachusetts Association of REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 2
  • 3. Condominium Market Overview Key market metrics for the current month and year-to-date figures for Condominium Properties Only. Key Metrics Historical Sparklines Nov-2012 Nov-2013 Closed Sales +/– YTD 2012 YTD 2013 +/– 757 11-2012 11 2012 11-2011 11-2012 11-2011 11-2012 11-2011 11-2012 11-2011 11-2012 11-2011 11-2012 - 34.0% -- -- -- 1.9 - 28.8% -- -- -- 51 - 33.4% 87 53 - 39.2% 98.8% + 2.7% 95.8% 98.9% + 3.3% 670 + 12.4% 9,352 10,194 + 9.0% 554 + 0.2% 11,922 12,308 + 3.2% 11-2013 New Listings 11-2010 1,330 11-2013 Pending Sales 11-2010 - 6.7% 11-2013 Percent of Original List Price Received 11-2010 127 11-2013 Days on Market Until Sale 11-2010 136 11-2013 11 2013 Months Supply of Inventory 11-2010 - 7.5% 553 11-2011 11 2011 125 11-2013 Inventory of Homes for Sale 11-2010 11 2010 + 6.9% 596 11-2012 $405,000 96.2% 11-2011 $379,000 11-2013 Housing Affordability Index 11-2010 + 7.9% 77 11-2012 $410,000 2.7 11-2011 + 7.8% 11-2013 Median Sales Price 11-2010 9,582 2,016 11-2012 8,889 135 11-2011 - 7.4% $380,000 11-2010 701 11-2013 All data from MLS Property Information Network, Inc. Provided by the Greater Boston Association of REALTORS® and the Massachusetts Association of REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 3
  • 4. Closed Sales A count of the actual sales that have closed in a given month. November Year to Date Single-Family YoY Change Condominium YoY Change Dec-2012 902 10,539 9,888 819 + 11.3% 766 + 19.1% Jan-2013 601 + 15.1% 513 + 24.5% 2013 +31.7% -12.1% Single-Family 2011 2012 2013 +34.5% -7.4% Condominium 2011 2012 2013 +20.3% +6.6% Single-Family 2011 2012 +22.2% +7.8% + 4.9% 806 + 6.5% 1,108 + 10.5% 1,068 + 5.8% 1,489 - 0.9% 1,248 - 1.2% 1,491 + 17.4% 1,255 + 20.9% 1,440 + 11.5% 1,275 + 6.1% 925 + 21.9% 891 + 19.1% 864 + 9.9% 762 + 7.0% Nov-2013 2013 778 Oct-2013 2012 + 3.5% Sep-2013 2011 + 13.3% 628 Aug-2013 7,274 563 435 - 4.0% Jul-2013 8,222 - 7.6% 622 May-2013 701 8,889 428 Apr-2013 9,582 757 685 Feb-2013 Mar-2013 Jun-2013 793 793 - 12.1% 701 - 7.4% 11,358 + 6.9% 10,348 + 8.6% Total Condominium Historical Closed Sales Activity Single-Family Condominium 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 Jan-2003 Jan-2004 Jan-2005 Jan-2006 Jan-2007 Jan-2008 Jan-2009 Jan-2010 Jan-2011 Jan-2012 Jan-2013 All data from MLS Property Information Network, Inc. Provided by the Greater Boston Association of REALTORS® and the Massachusetts Association of REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 4
  • 5. Median Sales Price Median price point for all closed sales, not accounting for seller concessions, in a given month. November Year to Date Single-Family YoY Change Condominium YoY Change Dec-2012 $470,000 + 6.7% $380,500 + 10.3% Jan-2013 $430,000 + 6.2% $368,500 + 3.8% Feb-2013 $429,850 + 8.8% $350,000 - 5.4% Mar-2013 $425,100 + 2.5% $405,000 + 19.1% Apr-2013 $476,500 + 14.2% $387,500 + 4.5% May-2013 $499,000 + 7.3% $410,000 + 7.6% Jun-2013 $542,000 + 7.9% $420,000 + 5.0% Jul-2013 $532,250 + 4.4% $400,000 + 3.4% Aug-2013 $520,000 + 6.1% $415,000 + 9.2% Sep-2013 $501,000 + 16.5% $410,000 + 9.3% Oct-2013 $467,000 + 8.3% $416,750 + 13.9% Nov-2013 $475,000 + 6.4% $410,000 + 7.9% Median $492,250 + 7.8% $400,000 + 6.7% $475,000 $446,550 $422,500 $495,000 $410,000 $455,000 $458,250 $380,000 $351,250 $405,000 $360,000 2011 2012 2013 +5.7% +6.4% Single-Family 2011 2012 2013 2011 +8.2% +7.9% Condominium 2012 2013 +0.7% +8.0% Single-Family 2011 $379,000 2012 2013 +5.3% +6.9% Condominium Historical Median Sales Price Single-Family Condominium $550,000 $500,000 $450,000 $400,000 $350,000 $300,000 $250,000 Jan-2003 Jan-2004 Jan-2005 Jan-2006 Jan-2007 Jan-2008 Jan-2009 Jan-2010 Jan-2011 Jan-2012 Jan-2013 All data from MLS Property Information Network, Inc. Provided by the Greater Boston Association of REALTORS® and the Massachusetts Association of REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 5
  • 6. Housing Affordability Index This index measures housing affordability for the region. An index of 120 means the median household income was 120% of what is necessary to qualify for the median-priced home under prevailing interest rates. A higher number means greater affordability. November Year to Date 136 135 127 125 117 127 YoY Change Condominium YoY Change Dec-2012 129 Single-Family 113 + 6.9% 137 + 3.7% Jan-2013 125 + 3.7% 143 + 5.8% +6.9% -6.4% Single-Family 2011 2012 2013 +4.6% 2011 -7.5% 2013 +11.5% Condominium 2012 -7.7% Single-Family 2011 2012 2013 +7.1% -6.7% - 8.8% 112 - 5.3% 136 + 2.7% 104 - 4.8% 124 - 5.0% 90 - 11.6% 114 - 9.2% 92 - 9.4% 120 - 8.4% 93 - 11.6% 115 - 13.7% 98 - 19.1% 118 - 14.0% Oct-2013 2013 + 11.2% Sep-2013 2012 146 128 Aug-2013 103 - 2.0% + 4.5% Jul-2013 106 123 Jun-2013 114 109 122 May-2013 2011 Feb-2013 Mar-2013 Apr-2013 109 105 - 12.9% 116 - 16.6% Nov-2013 109 - 6.4% 125 - 7.5% Average 107 -5.7% 127 -5.0% Condominium Historical Housing Affordability Index Single-Family Condominium 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 Jan-2004 Jan-2005 Jan-2006 Jan-2007 Jan-2008 Jan-2009 Jan-2010 Jan-2011 Jan-2012 Jan-2013 All data from MLS Property Information Network, Inc. Provided by the Greater Boston Association of REALTORS® and the Massachusetts Association of REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 6
  • 7. Inventory of Homes for Sale The number of properties available for sale in active status at the end of a given month. November Single-Family - 43.0% 1,593 - 42.4% 2,445 - 32.7% 1,704 - 41.8% 2,409 - 40.8% 1,734 - 47.3% 2,796 - 35.2% 1,971 - 40.6% May-2013 3,062 - 31.3% 2,066 - 35.6% Jun-2013 3,052 - 27.5% 2,020 - 32.4% Jul-2013 2,860 - 26.4% 1,839 - 33.3% Aug-2013 2,733 - 25.4% 1,695 - 30.7% Sep-2013 1,330 1,531 - 30.8% Mar-2013 2,016 - 31.5% Apr-2013 2,132 2,339 2,338 Feb-2013 3,032 YoY Change Jan-2013 3,393 Condominium Dec-2012 4,216 YoY Change 2,923 - 23.5% 1,879 - 26.2% Oct-2013 2011 2012 -28.1% Single-Family 2011 -29.7% 2,727 - 22.8% 1,744 - 25.5% 2012 2013 Nov-2013 2,132 - 29.7% 1,330 - 34.0% -40.6% Condominium 2013 -34.0% Average 2,651 - 29.9% 1,759 - 36.6% Historical Inventory of Homes for Sale Single-Family Condominium 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 Jan-2003 Jan-2004 Jan-2005 Jan-2006 Jan-2007 Jan-2008 Jan-2009 Jan-2010 Jan-2011 Jan-2012 Jan-2013 All data from MLS Property Information Network, Inc. Provided by the Greater Boston Association of REALTORS® and the Massachusetts Association of REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 7
  • 8. Months Supply of Inventory The inventory of homes for sale at the end of a given month, divided by the average monthly pending sales from the last 12 months. November Single-Family - 52.1% 3.1 - 53.7% 5.7 - 27.2% 3.9 - 48.7% 3.9 - 38.4% 2.8 - 49.1% 3.6 - 38.2% 2.4 - 44.2% May-2013 2.8 - 37.8% 1.9 - 39.1% Jun-2013 2.0 - 26.8% 1.6 - 31.6% Jul-2013 1.9 - 37.3% 1.5 - 44.9% Aug-2013 1.9 - 33.1% 1.3 - 34.7% Sep-2013 1.9 2.0 - 39.9% Apr-2013 2.7 - 38.4% 3.9 Mar-2013 2.7 2.9 Jan-2013 3.4 YoY Change Dec-2012 6.0 Condominium Feb-2013 6.2 YoY Change 3.2 - 37.2% 2.1 - 38.1% Oct-2013 2011 2012 -45.4% Single-Family 2011 -20.0% 3.2 - 29.8% 2.3 - 30.4% 2012 2013 Nov-2013 2.7 - 20.0% 1.9 - 28.8% -55.8% Condominium 2013 -28.8% Average 2.9 - 38.5% 2.1 - 46.3% Historical Months Supply of Inventory Single-Family Condominium 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Jan-2004 Jan-2005 Jan-2006 Jan-2007 Jan-2008 Jan-2009 Jan-2010 Jan-2011 Jan-2012 Jan-2013 All data from MLS Property Information Network, Inc. Provided by the Greater Boston Association of REALTORS® and the Massachusetts Association of REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 8
  • 9. Days on Market Until Sale Average number of days between when a property is listed and when an offer is accepted in a given month. November Year to Date Single-Family 2013 -17.8% -26.9% Single-Family 2011 2012 2013 -29.7% -33.4% Condominium 2011 2012 2013 -5.2% -30.7% Single-Family 2011 2012 -16.5% 94 - 22.1% 63 - 35.1% 74 - 22.2% 51 - 40.3% 56 - 37.6% 43 - 42.3% 47 - 41.7% 38 - 46.3% 49 - 44.2% 40 - 47.6% 58 - 35.1% 50 - 41.0% 60 - 33.7% 47 - 44.4% 65 - 26.9% 51 - 33.4% Total -39.2% - 39.1% Nov-2013 2013 - 22.5% 71 Oct-2013 2012 96 - 17.8% Sep-2013 2011 - 17.0% 107 Aug-2013 51 111 Jul-2013 53 - 29.4% Jun-2013 68 65 - 30.0% 88 May-2013 77 84 - 16.4% Mar-2013 87 - 12.7% 109 Feb-2013 89 97 Jan-2013 104 98 YoY Change Apr-2013 103 Condominium Dec-2012 109 109 YoY Change 70 - 29.2% 52 - 36.3% Condominium Historical Days on Market Until Sale Single-Family Condominium 150 130 110 90 70 50 30 Jan-2003 Jan-2004 Jan-2005 Jan-2006 Jan-2007 Jan-2008 Jan-2009 Jan-2010 Jan-2011 Jan-2012 Jan-2013 All data from MLS Property Information Network, Inc. Provided by the Greater Boston Association of REALTORS® and the Massachusetts Association of REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 9
  • 10. Percent of Original List Price Received Percentage found when dividing a property’s sales price by its original list price, then taking the average for all properties sold in a given month, not accounting for seller concessions. November Year to Date +2.4% +1.7% Single-Family 2013 +2.5% +2.7% Condominium 2011 2012 2013 +1.3% +2.9% Single-Family 2011 2012 +1.8% 96.6% + 3.5% + 2.4% 97.6% + 3.8% 96.7% + 3.4% 98.8% + 3.3% 97.8% + 2.6% 99.5% + 3.5% 98.4% + 3.2% 99.7% + 3.5% 98.1% + 2.4% 99.9% + 3.5% 97.9% + 3.2% 99.6% + 3.5% 97.3% + 2.9% 99.0% + 2.6% 97.2% + 3.0% 98.8% + 3.1% 96.2% + 1.7% 98.8% + 2.7% Average +3.3% + 3.1% 95.2% Nov-2013 2013 94.1% Oct-2013 2012 Feb-2013 Sep-2013 2011 + 3.1% Aug-2013 2013 + 3.4% 95.8% Jul-2013 2012 96.2% + 3.7% Jun-2013 2011 + 2.3% May-2013 94.1% 95.8% 94.2% 93.8% Apr-2013 97.1% 93.2% 94.4% YoY Change Mar-2013 96.2% 92.4% 94.6% Condominium Jan-2013 98.9% YoY Change Dec-2012 98.8% 93.8% 96.2% Single-Family 96.9% + 2.8% 98.7% + 3.3% Condominium Historical Percent of Original List Price Received Single-Family Condominium 101% 99% 97% 95% 93% 91% 89% Jan-2003 Jan-2004 Jan-2005 Jan-2006 Jan-2007 Jan-2008 Jan-2009 Jan-2010 Jan-2011 Jan-2012 Jan-2013 All data from MLS Property Information Network, Inc. Provided by the Greater Boston Association of REALTORS® and the Massachusetts Association of REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 10
  • 11. Pending Sales A count of the properties in UAG status between the first and last day in a given month, regardless of current status (based on Off Market Date). November Year to Date Single-Family YoY Change Condominium YoY Change Dec-2012 686 10,369 670 10,194 504 + 6.3% 459 + 10.9% Jan-2013 11,165 740 627 + 3.0% 657 + 18.8% Feb-2013 2012 2013 +11.7% +7.9% Single-Family 2011 2012 2013 +8.4% +12.4% Condominium 2011 2012 2013 +20.3% +7.7% Single-Family 2011 2012 +24.0% +9.0% + 12.5% 1,272 + 8.9% 1,496 + 16.1% 1,263 + 7.0% 1,293 + 9.9% 1,094 + 10.2% 994 + 5.3% 962 + 20.7% 904 + 15.7% 768 + 5.3% 856 - 0.9% 796 + 8.6% 968 + 10.8% 833 + 5.4% Nov-2013 2013 1,390 Oct-2013 2011 - 4.4% + 9.3% Sep-2013 7,539 713 1,166 Aug-2013 550 - 5.8% Jul-2013 8,617 + 2.8% Jun-2013 596 1,184 Apr-2013 9,352 713 Mar-2013 May-2013 614 740 + 7.9% 670 + 12.4% 11,669 + 7.6% 10,653 + 9.1% Total Condominium Historical Pending Sales Activity Single-Family Condominium 2,200 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 Jan-2003 Jan-2004 Jan-2005 Jan-2006 Jan-2007 Jan-2008 Jan-2009 Jan-2010 Jan-2011 Jan-2012 Jan-2013 All data from MLS Property Information Network, Inc. Provided by the Greater Boston Association of REALTORS® and the Massachusetts Association of REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 11
  • 12. New Listings A count of the properties that have been newly listed on the market in a given month. November Year to Date 631 617 553 13,020 554 355 - 20.6% 307 - 19.8% 883 - 5.6% 907 - 2.5% Feb-2013 998 - 21.7% 952 - 14.7% Mar-2013 11,922 12,308 YoY Change Jan-2013 14,347 14,039 14,306 Condominium Dec-2012 660 YoY Change 1,356 - 30.5% 1,344 - 21.1% Apr-2013 653 Single-Family 2,008 + 14.2% 1,664 + 13.6% May-2013 2,002 + 14.3% 1,540 + 13.0% Jun-2013 1,522 + 15.1% 1,227 + 8.3% Jul-2013 1,131 + 12.9% 997 + 12.4% Aug-2013 2012 2013 -3.4% +4.6% Single-Family 2011 2012 2013 -10.4% +0.2% Condominium 2011 2012 2013 -2.1% +1.9% Single-Family 2011 2012 -8.4% +3.2% 868 + 11.3% + 6.4% 1,250 + 10.6% 1,233 + 17.8% 1,005 + 16.7% Nov-2013 2013 + 6.1% 1,470 Oct-2013 2011 1,043 Sep-2013 660 + 4.6% 554 + 0.2% 14,661 + 1.2% 12,615 + 2.5% Total Condominium Historical New Listing Activity Single-Family Condominium 2,750 2,500 2,250 2,000 1,750 1,500 1,250 1,000 750 500 250 0 Jan-2003 Jan-2004 Jan-2005 Jan-2006 Jan-2007 Jan-2008 Jan-2009 Jan-2010 Jan-2011 Jan-2012 Jan-2013 All data from MLS Property Information Network, Inc. Provided by the Greater Boston Association of REALTORS® and the Massachusetts Association of REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 12
  • 13. City of Boston – Market Overview Key market metrics for the current month and year-to-date figures for the City of Boston. Key Metrics Historical Sparklines Nov-2012 Nov-2013 Closed Sales +/– YTD 2012 YTD 2013 +/– 438 11-2012 11 2012 11-2011 11-2012 11-2011 11-2012 11-2011 11-2012 11-2011 11-2012 11-2011 11-2012 - 25.9% -- -- -- 1.9 - 13.7% -- -- -- 49 - 29.1% 82 46 - 43.7% 98.2% + 2.3% 95.6% 98.7% + 3.3% 374 + 6.6% 5,222 5,575 + 6.8% 295 0.0% 6,675 6,893 + 3.3% 11-2013 New Listings 11-2010 721 11-2013 Pending Sales 11-2010 - 7.7% 11-2013 Percent of Original List Price Received 11-2010 106 11-2013 Days on Market Until Sale 11-2010 114 11-2013 11 2013 Months Supply of Inventory 11-2010 - 6.4% 295 11-2011 11 2011 109 11-2013 Inventory of Homes for Sale 11-2010 11 2010 + 9.4% 351 11-2012 $437,500 96.0% 11-2011 $400,000 11-2013 Housing Affordability Index 11-2010 + 12.6% 69 11-2012 $450,500 2.2 11-2011 + 4.3% 11-2013 Median Sales Price 11-2010 5,209 973 11-2012 4,995 117 11-2011 - 14.2% $400,000 11-2010 376 11-2013 All data from MLS Property Information Network, Inc. Provided by the Greater Boston Association of REALTORS® and the Massachusetts Association of REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 13