January 2014 Greater Boston Real Estate Market Trends Report

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Here’s January 2014’s Monthly Indicators report from the Greater Boston Association of Realtors®

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January 2014 Greater Boston Real Estate Market Trends Report

  1. 1. Monthly Indicators A RESEARCH TOOL PROVIDED BY THE GREATER BOSTON ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® January 2014 Quick Facts The same factors that catalyzed widespread market recovery in 2012 and 2013 are likely to continue in 2014, though perhaps at a more moderate pace. That's not a bad thing, since the market is returning to a stable, healthy state. Potential trends to watch for in 2014 include increased seller activity, more new construction and fewer foreclosures on the market. Inventory is another metric to watch this year. New Listings in the Greater Boston region were down 15.7 percent for detached homes and 18.2 percent for condominiums. Closed Sales decreased 6.0 percent for detached homes but increased 0.8 percent for condominiums. The Median Sales Price was up 12.8 percent to $485,100 for single-family properties and 13.9 percent to $420,500 for condominiums. Months Supply of Inventory decreased 24.9 percent for single-family units and 30.9 percent for townhouse-condo units. Given how far the market has come, it's a good time for folks to reassess their situation. Many who were hesitant to sell in recent years may find themselves in a completely different position. Getting a fresh comparative market analysis might be a good idea. Interest rates remain attractive and should remain below their long-term average, but they are expected to creep higher in 2014. Politicians are gearing up for midterm elections, so pay close attention to campaign messaging as relates to real estate or mortgage financing. Job growth is still fundamental and is likely to dominate this election cycle. - 2.9% - 6.0% + 0.8% Year-Over-Year (YoY) Change in Closed Sales All Properties Year-Over-Year (YoY) Change in Closed Sales Single-Family Only Year-Over-Year (YoY) Change in Closed Sales Condominium Only Single-Family Market Overview Condominium Market Overview Closed Sales Median Sales Price Housing Affordability Index Inventory of Homes for Sale Months Supply of Inventory Days On Market Until Sale Percent of Original List Price Received Pending Sales New Listings City of Boston Overview 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 Click on desired metric to jump to that page. Data is refreshed regularly to capture changes in market activity so figures shown may be different than previously reported. Current as of February 18, 2014. All data from MLS Property Information Network, Inc. Provided by Greater Boston Association of REALTORS® and the Massachusetts Association of REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing.
  2. 2. Single-Family Market Overview Key market metrics for the current month and year-to-date figures for Single-Family Homes Only. Key Metrics Historical Sparklines Jan-2013 Jan-2014 Closed Sales +/– YTD 2013 YTD 2014 +/– 597 1-2013 1 2013 1-2012 1-2013 1-2012 1-2013 1-2012 1-2013 1-2012 1-2013 1-2012 1-2013 - 29.4% -- -- -- 2.9 - 24.9% -- -- -- 79 - 27.0% 108 79 - 27.0% 95.6% + 1.9% 93.9% 95.6% + 1.9% 549 - 11.7% 622 549 - 11.7% 733 - 15.7% 870 733 - 15.7% 1-2014 New Listings 1-2011 1,617 1-2014 Pending Sales 1-2011 - 22.4% 1-2014 Percent of Original List Price Received 1-2011 97 1-2014 Days on Market Until Sale 1-2011 125 1-2014 1 2014 Months Supply of Inventory 1-2011 - 22.4% 870 1-2012 1 2012 97 1-2014 Inventory of Homes for Sale 1-2011 1 2011 + 12.8% 622 1-2013 $485,100 93.9% 1-2012 $430,000 1-2014 Housing Affordability Index 1-2011 + 12.8% 108 1-2013 $485,100 3.8 1-2012 - 6.0% 1-2014 Median Sales Price 1-2011 561 2,291 1-2013 597 125 1-2012 - 6.0% $430,000 1-2011 561 1-2014 All data from MLS Property Information Network, Inc. Provided by the Greater Boston Association of REALTORS® and the Massachusetts Association of REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 2
  3. 3. Condominium Market Overview Key market metrics for the current month and year-to-date figures for Condominium Properties Only. Key Metrics Historical Sparklines Jan-2013 Jan-2014 Closed Sales +/– YTD 2013 YTD 2014 +/– 514 1-2013 1 2013 1-2012 1-2013 1-2012 1-2013 1-2012 1-2013 1-2012 1-2013 1-2012 1-2013 - 30.4% -- -- -- 2.1 - 30.9% -- -- -- 63 - 28.9% 88 63 - 28.9% 97.4% + 1.7% 95.8% 97.4% + 1.7% 636 - 3.0% 656 636 - 3.0% 738 - 18.2% 902 738 - 18.2% 1-2014 New Listings 1-2011 1,101 1-2014 Pending Sales 1-2011 - 22.9% 1-2014 Percent of Original List Price Received 1-2011 110 1-2014 Days on Market Until Sale 1-2011 143 1-2014 1 2014 Months Supply of Inventory 1-2011 - 22.9% 902 1-2012 1 2012 110 1-2014 Inventory of Homes for Sale 1-2011 1 2011 + 13.9% 656 1-2013 $420,500 95.8% 1-2012 $369,250 1-2014 Housing Affordability Index 1-2011 + 13.9% 88 1-2013 $420,500 3.1 1-2012 + 0.8% 1-2014 Median Sales Price 1-2011 518 1,582 1-2013 514 143 1-2012 + 0.8% $369,250 1-2011 518 1-2014 All data from MLS Property Information Network, Inc. Provided by the Greater Boston Association of REALTORS® and the Massachusetts Association of REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 3
  4. 4. Closed Sales A count of the actual sales that have closed in a given month. January Year to Date YoY Change Single-Family Condominium YoY Change Feb-2013 597 597 561 561 518 514 518 - 8.0% 435 + 13.3% 616 - 3.8% 628 + 3.6% Apr-2013 518 518 410 767 + 4.4% 805 + 6.5% May-2013 1,096 + 10.0% 1,068 + 6.4% Jun-2013 514 410 425 Mar-2013 1,480 - 1.1% 1,246 - 1.0% Jul-2013 +15.3% -6.0% Single-Family 2013 2014 +25.4% +0.8% Condominium 2012 2013 2014 +15.3% -6.0% Single-Family 2012 2013 +25.4% +0.8% 919 + 22.4% 888 + 18.9% 855 + 10.5% 764 + 7.5% 791 - 11.4% 710 - 6.0% 897 + 10.2% 788 + 2.9% Jan-2014 2014 + 6.1% Dec-2013 2012 + 20.7% 1,275 Nov-2013 2014 1,252 + 11.6% Oct-2013 2013 + 18.0% 1,428 Sep-2013 2012 1,488 Aug-2013 561 - 6.0% 518 + 0.8% 11,323 + 5.8% 10,377 + 6.5% Total Condominium Historical Closed Sales Activity Single-Family Condominium 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 Jan-2003 Jan-2004 Jan-2005 Jan-2006 Jan-2007 Jan-2008 Jan-2009 Jan-2010 Jan-2011 Jan-2012 Jan-2013 Jan-2014 All data from MLS Property Information Network, Inc. Provided by the Greater Boston Association of REALTORS® and the Massachusetts Association of REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 4
  5. 5. Median Sales Price Median price point for all closed sales, not accounting for seller concessions, in a given month. January Year to Date $480,000 + 14.3% $387,500 + 4.3% May-2013 $500,000 + 7.2% $410,000 + 7.5% Jun-2013 $545,000 + 8.1% $420,000 + 5.0% $533,000 + 4.1% $400,500 + 3.5% $521,000 + 5.5% $416,000 + 9.5% $502,500 + 15.5% $410,000 + 9.3% $474,000 + 9.0% $416,750 + 13.8% Nov-2013 $369,250 + 19.1% Oct-2013 $355,000 - 5.4% $405,000 Sep-2013 $369,250 $350,000 + 3.6% Aug-2013 $355,000 $420,500 $406,500 + 8.3% $430,101 Jul-2013 $420,500 $406,500 $430,000 Apr-2013 $485,100 $430,000 Condominium Mar-2013 $430,000 YoY Change Feb-2013 $485,100 Single-Family YoY Change $480,000 + 6.7% $410,750 + 8.1% Dec-2013 2012 2013 2014 +5.8% +12.8% Single-Family 2012 2013 2014 +4.0% +13.9% Condominium 2012 2013 2014 +5.8% +12.8% Single-Family 2012 2013 +4.0% + 6.4% $420,400 + 10.5% $485,100 + 12.8% $420,500 + 13.9% Median +13.9% $499,950 Jan-2014 2014 $500,000 + 8.0% $409,000 + 7.6% Condominium Historical Median Sales Price Single-Family Condominium $550,000 $500,000 $450,000 $400,000 $350,000 $300,000 $250,000 Jan-2003 Jan-2004 Jan-2005 Jan-2006 Jan-2007 Jan-2008 Jan-2009 Jan-2010 Jan-2011 Jan-2012 Jan-2013 Jan-2014 All data from MLS Property Information Network, Inc. Provided by the Greater Boston Association of REALTORS® and the Massachusetts Association of REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 5
  6. 6. Housing Affordability Index This index measures housing affordability for the region. An index of 120 means the median household income was 120% of what is necessary to qualify for the median-priced home under prevailing interest rates. A higher number means greater affordability. January Year to Date Single-Family 120 YoY Change Feb-2013 110 110 97 97 - 1.6% 146 + 11.2% 121 + 3.4% 128 - 8.8% 112 - 5.3% 136 + 2.9% May-2013 104 - 4.8% 124 - 4.9% Jun-2013 125 122 Mar-2013 143 135 125 Condominium Apr-2013 143 135 120 YoY Change 90 - 11.8% 114 - 9.2% Jul-2013 92 - 9.2% 120 - 8.5% Aug-2013 93 - 11.2% 115 - 13.9% Sep-2013 98 - 18.5% 118 - 14.0% Oct-2013 103 - 13.4% 116 - 16.6% Nov-2013 108 - 6.7% 125 - 7.7% Dec-2013 2012 2013 2014 +4.1% -22.4% Single-Family 2012 2013 2014 +5.6% 2012 -22.9% 2014 +4.1% Condominium 2013 99 - 11.8% 117 - 14.6% 2013 2014 Jan-2014 97 - 22.4% 110 - 22.9% +5.6% -22.4% Single-Family 2012 -22.9% Average 103 -9.4% 122 -8.9% Condominium Historical Housing Affordability Index Single-Family Condominium 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 Jan-2004 Jan-2005 Jan-2006 Jan-2007 Jan-2008 Jan-2009 Jan-2010 Jan-2011 Jan-2012 Jan-2013 Jan-2014 All data from MLS Property Information Network, Inc. Provided by the Greater Boston Association of REALTORS® and the Massachusetts Association of REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 6
  7. 7. Inventory of Homes for Sale The number of properties available for sale in active status at the end of a given month. January Single-Family - 41.5% 1,731 - 47.0% 2,766 - 34.9% 1,973 - 40.2% 3,034 - 30.8% 2,068 - 35.1% 3,024 - 26.8% 2,022 - 31.9% Jul-2013 2,854 - 25.2% 1,854 - 32.3% Aug-2013 2,747 - 23.7% 1,731 - 28.6% Sep-2013 2,978 - 20.8% 1,940 - 23.3% Oct-2013 2,839 - 18.3% 1,860 - 19.9% Nov-2013 1,101 1,699 - 40.7% Jun-2013 1,582 - 32.5% 2,375 May-2013 1,617 2,399 Apr-2013 2,291 YoY Change Mar-2013 2,743 Condominium Feb-2013 3,294 YoY Change 2,342 - 21.5% 1,524 - 24.0% Dec-2013 2012 2013 2014 -30.4% Single-Family -29.4% 1,715 - 25.2% 1,174 - 22.9% 2013 2014 Jan-2014 1,617 - 29.4% 1,101 - 30.4% -42.3% Condominium 2012 -30.4% Average 2,558 - 27.9% 1,723 - 32.8% Historical Inventory of Homes for Sale Single-Family Condominium 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 Jan-2003 Jan-2004 Jan-2005 Jan-2006 Jan-2007 Jan-2008 Jan-2009 Jan-2010 Jan-2011 Jan-2012 Jan-2013 Jan-2014 All data from MLS Property Information Network, Inc. Provided by the Greater Boston Association of REALTORS® and the Massachusetts Association of REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 7
  8. 8. Months Supply of Inventory The inventory of homes for sale at the end of a given month, divided by the average monthly pending sales from the last 12 months. January Single-Family - 48.4% 2.8 - 48.9% 3.6 - 37.6% 2.5 - 43.8% 2.8 - 37.1% 1.9 - 39.0% 2.0 - 26.0% 1.6 - 31.2% Jul-2013 1.9 - 36.6% 1.5 - 44.0% Aug-2013 1.9 - 31.6% 1.4 - 32.7% Sep-2013 3.2 - 35.3% 2.2 - 35.4% Oct-2013 3.3 - 26.0% 2.4 - 25.5% Nov-2013 2.1 3.9 - 38.4% Jun-2013 3.1 - 26.7% 3.9 May-2013 2.9 5.6 Mar-2013 3.8 YoY Change Apr-2013 6.4 Condominium Feb-2013 6.7 YoY Change 3.0 - 11.3% 2.1 - 19.1% Dec-2013 2012 2013 -39.7% Single-Family 2012 -24.9% 1.9 - 32.2% 1.5 - 25.1% 2013 2014 Jan-2014 2.9 - 24.9% 2.1 - 30.9% -54.0% Condominium 2014 -30.9% Average 2.8 - 35.7% 2.0 - 42.2% Historical Months Supply of Inventory Single-Family Condominium 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Jan-2004 Jan-2005 Jan-2006 Jan-2007 Jan-2008 Jan-2009 Jan-2010 Jan-2011 Jan-2012 Jan-2013 Jan-2014 All data from MLS Property Information Network, Inc. Provided by the Greater Boston Association of REALTORS® and the Massachusetts Association of REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 8
  9. 9. Days on Market Until Sale Average number of days between when a property is listed and when an offer is accepted in a given month. January Year to Date 2014 -17.2% -27.0% Single-Family 2012 2013 2014 -29.4% -28.9% Condominium 2012 2013 2014 -17.2% -27.0% Single-Family 2012 2014 -29.4% -28.9% - 35.1% 51 - 40.3% 56 - 37.9% 43 - 42.4% 47 - 41.6% 38 - 46.2% 48 - 45.1% 40 - 47.3% 57 - 36.1% 49 - 41.7% 59 - 33.7% 47 - 43.9% 65 - 27.2% 51 - 33.6% 70 - 28.0% 55 - 34.1% Jan-2014 2013 63 - 22.3% Dec-2013 2013 - 22.8% 75 Nov-2013 2012 93 Oct-2013 63 - 39.0% Sep-2013 63 - 22.6% 71 Aug-2013 88 79 95 - 17.4% Jul-2013 88 79 - 16.7% 107 Jun-2013 108 111 May-2013 108 YoY Change Mar-2013 125 Condominium Apr-2013 131 125 YoY Change Feb-2013 131 Single-Family 79 - 27.0% 63 - 28.9% Total 66 - 31.7% 49 - 37.5% Condominium Historical Days on Market Until Sale Single-Family Condominium 150 130 110 90 70 50 30 Jan-2003 Jan-2004 Jan-2005 Jan-2006 Jan-2007 Jan-2008 Jan-2009 Jan-2010 Jan-2011 Jan-2012 Jan-2013 Jan-2014 All data from MLS Property Information Network, Inc. Provided by the Greater Boston Association of REALTORS® and the Massachusetts Association of REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 9
  10. 10. Percent of Original List Price Received Percentage found when dividing a property’s sales price by its original list price, then taking the average for all properties sold in a given month, not accounting for seller concessions. January Year to Date 96.7% + 3.5% + 2.3% 97.6% + 3.8% Apr-2013 96.7% + 3.5% 98.8% + 3.2% May-2013 97.8% + 2.6% 99.5% + 3.5% 98.4% + 3.3% 99.7% + 3.5% 98.1% + 2.4% 99.9% + 3.5% 97.9% + 3.3% 99.7% + 3.6% Sep-2013 97.3% + 3.0% 99.0% + 2.6% Oct-2013 97.2% + 3.0% 98.8% + 3.1% Nov-2013 93.9% 95.6% + 3.2% 95.2% Aug-2013 90.4% 94.1% Jul-2013 93.9% 95.6% YoY Change Jun-2013 90.4% Condominium Mar-2013 97.4% 93.0% 95.8% YoY Change Feb-2013 97.4% 93.0% 95.8% Single-Family 96.3% + 1.7% 98.9% + 2.8% Dec-2013 2012 2013 +3.8% 2014 +1.9% Single-Family 2012 2013 2014 +3.0% +1.7% Condominium 2012 2013 2014 +3.8% +1.9% Single-Family 95.9% + 1.7% 98.0% + 1.9% 2013 2014 Jan-2014 95.6% + 1.9% 97.4% + 1.7% +3.0% 2012 +1.7% Average 97.1% + 2.8% 99.0% + 3.1% Condominium Historical Percent of Original List Price Received Single-Family Condominium 101% 99% 97% 95% 93% 91% 89% Jan-2003 Jan-2004 Jan-2005 Jan-2006 Jan-2007 Jan-2008 Jan-2009 Jan-2010 Jan-2011 Jan-2012 Jan-2013 Jan-2014 All data from MLS Property Information Network, Inc. Provided by the Greater Boston Association of REALTORS® and the Massachusetts Association of REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 10
  11. 11. Pending Sales A count of the properties in UAG status between the first and last day in a given month, regardless of current status (based on Off Market Date). January Year to Date YoY Change Single-Family Condominium YoY Change 605 553 549 636 553 702 - 6.8% 712 - 4.3% 1,164 + 1.9% 1,164 + 9.3% Apr-2013 656 622 Mar-2013 1,380 + 12.4% 1,270 + 9.2% 1,479 + 15.7% 1,259 + 6.9% Jun-2013 549 636 Feb-2013 May-2013 605 656 622 1,285 + 9.5% 1,091 + 10.1% Jul-2013 979 + 4.9% 953 + 19.9% Aug-2013 888 + 15.2% 760 + 4.3% Sep-2013 836 - 1.9% 787 + 7.5% Oct-2013 946 + 8.9% 816 + 3.3% Nov-2013 705 + 3.7% 641 + 7.9% Dec-2013 2012 2013 2014 +2.8% -11.7% Single-Family 2012 2013 2014 +18.6% -3.0% Condominium 2012 2013 2014 +2.8% -11.7% Single-Family 2012 2013 +18.6% -3.0% 483 - 3.6% 427 - 7.0% Jan-2014 2014 549 - 11.7% 636 - 3.0% 11,396 + 5.5% 10,516 + 6.3% Total Condominium Historical Pending Sales Activity Single-Family Condominium 2,200 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 Jan-2003 Jan-2004 Jan-2005 Jan-2006 Jan-2007 Jan-2008 Jan-2009 Jan-2010 Jan-2011 Jan-2012 Jan-2013 Jan-2014 All data from MLS Property Information Network, Inc. Provided by the Greater Boston Association of REALTORS® and the Massachusetts Association of REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 11
  12. 12. New Listings A count of the properties that have been newly listed on the market in a given month. January Year to Date 870 926 923 902 870 984 Mar-2013 902 YoY Change Feb-2013 926 923 Single-Family Condominium YoY Change 1,343 - 22.4% 950 - 14.6% - 30.6% 1,342 - 21.1% Apr-2013 738 733 1,994 + 14.6% 1,661 + 13.5% May-2013 1,981 + 14.4% 1,531 + 12.6% Jun-2013 738 733 1,505 + 15.1% 1,223 + 7.9% Jul-2013 -5.7% -15.7% Single-Family 2013 2014 -2.6% -18.2% Condominium 2012 2013 2014 -5.7% -15.7% Single-Family 2012 2014 -2.6% -18.2% 1,456 + 6.4% 1,253 + 11.0% 1,216 + 18.4% 1,010 + 17.3% 651 + 4.5% 554 + 0.4% 393 + 12.3% 363 + 18.2% Jan-2014 2013 + 11.6% Dec-2013 2012 + 12.3% 866 Oct-2013 2014 993 + 6.1% Nov-2013 2013 + 12.4% 1,031 Sep-2013 2012 1,116 Aug-2013 733 - 15.7% 738 - 18.2% 14,403 + 1.5% 12,484 + 2.5% Total Condominium Historical New Listing Activity Single-Family Condominium 2,750 2,500 2,250 2,000 1,750 1,500 1,250 1,000 750 500 250 0 Jan-2003 Jan-2004 Jan-2005 Jan-2006 Jan-2007 Jan-2008 Jan-2009 Jan-2010 Jan-2011 Jan-2012 Jan-2013 Jan-2014 All data from MLS Property Information Network, Inc. Provided by the Greater Boston Association of REALTORS® and the Massachusetts Association of REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 12
  13. 13. City of Boston – Market Overview Key market metrics for the current month and year-to-date figures for the City of Boston. Key Metrics Historical Sparklines Jan-2013 Jan-2014 Closed Sales +/– YTD 2013 YTD 2014 +/– 271 1-2013 1 2013 1-2012 1-2013 1-2012 1-2013 1-2012 1-2013 1-2012 1-2013 1-2012 1-2013 - 23.1% -- -- -- 2.0 - 26.9% -- -- -- 60 - 21.2% 77 60 - 21.2% 97.5% + 1.3% 96.3% 97.5% + 1.3% 334 + 0.6% 332 334 + 0.6% 392 - 17.3% 474 392 - 17.3% 1-2014 New Listings 1-2011 571 1-2014 Pending Sales 1-2011 - 22.4% 1-2014 Percent of Original List Price Received 1-2011 97 1-2014 Days on Market Until Sale 1-2011 125 1-2014 1 2014 Months Supply of Inventory 1-2011 - 22.4% 474 1-2012 1 2012 97 1-2014 Inventory of Homes for Sale 1-2011 1 2011 + 12.0% 332 1-2013 $465,000 96.3% 1-2012 $415,000 1-2014 Housing Affordability Index 1-2011 + 12.0% 77 1-2013 $465,000 2.7 1-2012 + 5.2% 1-2014 Median Sales Price 1-2011 285 743 1-2013 271 125 1-2012 + 5.2% $415,000 1-2011 285 1-2014 All data from MLS Property Information Network, Inc. Provided by the Greater Boston Association of REALTORS® and the Massachusetts Association of REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 13

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