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August 2013 Greater Boston Real Estate Market Trends Report
 

August 2013 Greater Boston Real Estate Market Trends Report

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What's going on in the Boston area real estate market? ...

What's going on in the Boston area real estate market?
August closings were another example of buyers reacting to the market and the ongoing concern of rising interest rates in the spring and early summer. Prices continue to move up because demand for available homes to buy is outpacing supply. Changes to National Flood Insurance Programs starting on Oct. 1 could hurt the Mass. Housing market. Congress needs pass a one-year moratorium to better understand impact.

• August single-family home sales – Up 7.1% over last year. Five straight months of increases.
• August Single-family median prices were UP 8.8% to $345,000. Eleven straight months of increases.
• August condo sales UP 6.7% and median prices UP 10.3% ($320,500)

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    August 2013 Greater Boston Real Estate Market Trends Report August 2013 Greater Boston Real Estate Market Trends Report Presentation Transcript

    • Monthly IndicatorsA RESEARCH TOOL PROVIDED BY THE GREATER BOSTON ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® August 2013 Quick Facts 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 Data is refreshed regularly to capture changes in market activity so figures shown may be different than previously reported. Current as of September 16, 2013. All data from MLS Property Information Network, Inc. Provided by Greater Boston Association of REALTORS® and the Massachusetts Association of REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. + 10.6% Year-Over-Year (YoY) Change in Closed Sales Single-Family Only Strong demand for a limited supply of homes for sale has seemingly outweighed higher mortgage rates, at least for the time being. The idea that mortgage rates may rise further is likely spurring some of this demand. The dream of homeownership is very much intact, but buyers should be prepared with competitive offers, since every measure of market health is pointing upwards. New Listings in the Greater Boston region were up 6.2 percent for detached homes and 10.8 percent for condominiums. Closed Sales increased 10.6 percent for detached homes and 5.2 percent for condominiums. The Median Sales Price was up 6.1 percent to $520,000 for single-family properties and 9.7 percent to $416,950 for condominiums. Months Supply of Inventory decreased 38.6 percent for single-family units and 40.9 percent for townhouse-condo units. Eyes continue to fixate on the Federal Reserve and its policy inclinations related to stimulus tapering. Labor market growth is positive but still tepid. Things like gas prices, stock market shifts and global economics have a tendency to sway consumer sentiment. At the moment, U.S. housing continues to be a bright spot. + 5.2% Year-Over-Year (YoY) Change in Closed Sales Condominium Only + 8.0% Year-Over-Year (YoY) Change in Closed Sales All Properties Single-Family Market Overview Condominium Market Overview Closed Sales Median Sales Price Housing Affordability Index Inventory of Homes for Sale Click on desired metric to jump to that page. Months Supply of Inventory Days On Market Until Sale Percent of Original List Price Received City of Boston Overview Pending Sales New Listings
    • Single-Family Market Overview Key market metrics for the current month and year-to-date figures for Single-Family Homes Only. Key Metrics Historical Sparklines Aug-2012 Aug-2013 + / – YTD 2012 YTD 2013 + / – 94.3% 97.1% - 30.3% + 3.0% Percent of Original List Price Received Days on Market Until Sale 94.8% - 44.9% + 3.2% 48 97.9% Pending Sales Median Sales Price + 10.2%8,814789 972 + 23.2% 7,995 - 32.1% -- -- - 11.6% 110 96 - 12.6% -- Housing Affordability Index Inventory of Homes for Sale Months Supply of Inventory 2.9 $490,000 + 7.5% 87 105 93 70 -- -- -- 3,751 2,547 1.8 - 38.6% $520,000 + 6.1% $465,000 101 8,001 + 7.1% All data from MLS Property Information Network, Inc. Provided by the Greater Boston Association of REALTORS® and the Massachusetts Association of REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 2 New Listings 1,001 1,063 + 6.2% 11,246 11,194 - 0.5% Closed Sales 1,300 1,438 + 10.6% 7,473 $500,000 8-2010 8-2011 8-2012 8-2013 8-2010 8-2011 8-2012 8-2013 8-2010 8-2011 8-2012 8-2013 8-2010 8-2011 8-2012 8-2013 8-2010 8-2011 8-2012 8-2013 8-2010 8-2011 8-2012 8-2013 8-2010 8-2011 8-2012 8-2013 8-2010 8-2011 8-2012 8-2013 8-2010 8-2011 8-2012 8-2013
    • Condominium Market Overview Key market metrics for the current month and year-to-date figures for Condominium Properties Only. Key Metrics Historical Sparklines Aug-2012 Aug-2013 + / – YTD 2012 YTD 2013 + / – + 8.1% Median Sales Price $380,000 $416,950 + 9.7% $380,000 $402,000 + 5.8% Closed Sales 1,204 1,267 + 5.2% 6,683 7,226 - 11.3% Inventory of Homes for Sale 2,540 1,580 - 37.8% -- -- -- Housing Affordability Index 133 114 - 14.0% 133 118 -- Days on Market Until Sale 76 40 - 47.7% 88 54 - 39.0% Months Supply of Inventory 2.1 1.2 - 40.9% -- -- + 3.4% Pending Sales 734 823 + 12.1% 7,261 8,047 + 10.8% Percent of Original List Price Received 96.3% 99.7% + 3.5% 95.7% 99.0% + 0.6% All data from MLS Property Information Network, Inc. Provided by the Greater Boston Association of REALTORS® and the Massachusetts Association of REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 3 New Listings 790 875 + 10.8% 9,567 9,623 8-2010 8-2011 8-2012 8-2013 8-2010 8-2011 8-2012 8-2013 8-2010 8-2011 8-2012 8-2013 8-2010 8-2011 8-2012 8-2013 8-2010 8-2011 8-2012 8-2013 8-2010 8-2011 8-2012 8-2013 8-2010 8-2011 8-2012 8-2013 8-2010 8-2011 8-2012 8-2013 8-2010 8-2011 8-2012 8-2013
    • Closed Sales A count of the actual sales that have closed in a given month. Single-Family YoY Change Condominium YoY Change Sep-2012 766 - 1.2% 753 + 16.4% Oct-2012 792 + 28.8% 712 + 39.1% Nov-2012 907 + 32.4% 760 + 35.0% Dec-2012 824 + 11.8% 769 + 19.6% Jan-2013 606 + 15.9% 516 + 25.2% Feb-2013 431 - 7.1% 435 + 13.3% Mar-2013 631 - 2.6% 629 + 3.6% Apr-2013 779 + 4.8% 806 + 6.3% May-2013 1,119 + 11.3% 1,072 + 5.9% Jun-2013 1,499 - 0.8% 1,248 - 1.3% Jul-2013 1,498 + 17.1% 1,253 + 20.2% Aug-2013 1,438 + 10.6% 1,267 + 5.2% Total 11,290 + 9.8% 10,220 + 13.0% All data from MLS Property Information Network, Inc. Provided by the Greater Boston Association of REALTORS® and the Massachusetts Association of REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 4 1,031 961 1,300 1,204 1,438 1,267 Single-Family Condominium August 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 Jan-2003 Jan-2004 Jan-2005 Jan-2006 Jan-2007 Jan-2008 Jan-2009 Jan-2010 Jan-2011 Jan-2012 Jan-2013 Historical Closed Sales Activity Single-Family Condominium +5.2%+25.3%+26.1% 20132012 20132012 6,158 5,556 7,473 6,683 8,001 7,226 Single-Family Condominium Year to Date +8.1%+20.3%+21.4% 20132012 20132012 +10.6% +7.1% 2011 2011 2011 2011
    • Median Sales Price Median price point for all closed sales, not accounting for seller concessions, in a given month. Single-Family YoY Change Condominium YoY Change Sep-2012 $430,475 - 4.3% $375,000 + 2.0% Oct-2012 $430,250 + 10.3% $368,133 + 5.6% Nov-2012 $447,500 + 5.9% $380,000 + 8.2% Dec-2012 $470,000 + 6.8% $381,000 + 10.4% Jan-2013 $430,000 + 6.2% $372,500 + 4.9% Feb-2013 $429,900 + 8.8% $350,750 - 5.2% Mar-2013 $430,000 + 3.7% $405,500 + 19.3% Apr-2013 $475,000 + 13.5% $389,000 + 4.7% May-2013 $499,882 + 7.5% $410,000 + 7.6% Jun-2013 $541,000 + 7.7% $420,000 + 5.0% Jul-2013 $534,900 + 4.9% $401,600 + 3.8% Aug-2013 $520,000 + 6.1% $416,950 + 9.7% Median $482,500 + 6.0% $394,536 + 5.7% All data from MLS Property Information Network, Inc. Provided by the Greater Boston Association of REALTORS® and the Massachusetts Association of REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 5 $499,000 $369,000 $490,000 $380,000 $520,000 $416,950 Single-Family Condominium August $250,000 $300,000 $350,000 $400,000 $450,000 $500,000 $550,000 Jan-2003 Jan-2004 Jan-2005 Jan-2006 Jan-2007 Jan-2008 Jan-2009 Jan-2010 Jan-2011 Jan-2012 Jan-2013 Historical Median Sales Price Single-Family Condominium +9.7%+3.0%-1.8% 20132012 20132012 $466,000 $360,000 $465,000 $380,000 $500,000 $402,000 Single-Family Condominium Year to Date +5.8%+5.6%-0.2% 20132012 20132012 +6.1% +7.5% 2011 2011 2011 2011
    • Housing Affordability Index Single-Family YoY Change Condominium YoY Change Sep-2012 121 + 17.2% 137 + 10.4% Oct-2012 120 + 3.2% 139 + 7.3% Nov-2012 117 + 6.7% 135 + 4.6% Dec-2012 113 + 6.8% 136 + 3.6% Jan-2013 125 + 3.7% 142 + 4.8% Feb-2013 122 - 2.0% 146 + 11.0% Mar-2013 121 + 3.4% 128 - 8.9% Apr-2013 113 - 4.7% 135 + 2.6% May-2013 104 - 5.0% 124 - 5.0% Jun-2013 90 - 11.5% 114 - 9.2% Jul-2013 92 - 9.9% 120 - 8.7% Aug-2013 93 - 11.6% 114 - 14.0% Average 111 -0.3% 131 -0.1% This index measures housing affordability for the region. An index of 120 means the median household income was 120% of what is necessary to qualify for the median-priced home under prevailing interest rates. A higher number means greater affordability. All data from MLS Property Information Network, Inc. Provided by the Greater Boston Association of REALTORS® and the Massachusetts Association of REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 6 92 122 105 133 93 114 Single-Family Condominium August 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 Jan-2004 Jan-2005 Jan-2006 Jan-2007 Jan-2008 Jan-2009 Jan-2010 Jan-2011 Jan-2012 Jan-2013 Historical Housing Affordability Index Single-Family Condominium -14.0%+9.0%+14.0% 98 125 110 133 96 118 Single-Family Condominium Year to Date -11.3%+6.7%+12.4% 20132012 20132012 20132012 20132012 -11.6% -12.6% 2011 2011 2011 2011
    • Inventory of Homes for Sale The number of properties available for sale in active status at the end of a given month. Single-Family YoY Change Condominium YoY Change Sep-2012 3,925 - 26.1% 2,638 - 36.9% Oct-2012 3,646 - 28.1% 2,437 - 38.4% Nov-2012 3,133 - 27.7% 2,107 - 39.2% Dec-2012 2,413 - 31.0% 1,619 - 41.0% Jan-2013 2,405 - 30.6% 1,675 - 40.9% Feb-2013 2,523 - 32.5% 1,791 - 40.5% Mar-2013 2,484 - 40.8% 1,827 - 46.0% Apr-2013 2,865 - 35.5% 2,071 - 39.3% May-2013 3,096 - 32.3% 2,123 - 35.9% Jun-2013 3,039 - 29.6% 2,056 - 33.5% Jul-2013 2,792 - 30.0% 1,824 - 36.0% Aug-2013 2,547 - 32.1% 1,580 - 37.8% Average 2,906 - 31.2% 1,979 - 38.7% All data from MLS Property Information Network, Inc. Provided by the Greater Boston Association of REALTORS® and the Massachusetts Association of REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 7 5,052 4,096 3,751 2,5402,547 1,580 Single-Family Condominium August 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 Jan-2003 Jan-2004 Jan-2005 Jan-2006 Jan-2007 Jan-2008 Jan-2009 Jan-2010 Jan-2011 Jan-2012 Jan-2013 Historical Inventory of Homes for Sale Single-Family Condominium -37.8%-38.0%-25.8% 20132012 20132012 -32.1% 2011 2011
    • Months Supply of Inventory The inventory of homes for sale at the end of a given month, divided by the average monthly pending sales from the last 12 months. Single-Family YoY Change Condominium YoY Change Sep-2012 5.1 - 25.2% 3.5 - 45.8% Oct-2012 4.6 - 44.2% 3.4 - 55.7% Nov-2012 3.5 - 45.4% 2.8 - 54.9% Dec-2012 2.9 - 38.3% 2.1 - 50.6% Jan-2013 4.0 - 40.1% 3.2 - 52.8% Feb-2013 5.9 - 27.4% 4.1 - 47.4% Mar-2013 3.9 - 39.2% 2.9 - 47.9% Apr-2013 3.7 - 38.5% 2.6 - 42.9% May-2013 2.8 - 39.2% 2.0 - 39.5% Jun-2013 2.0 - 29.1% 1.6 - 32.6% Jul-2013 1.9 - 40.2% 1.5 - 46.8% Aug-2013 1.8 - 38.6% 1.2 - 40.9% Average 3.2 - 40.7% 2.4 - 48.7% All data from MLS Property Information Network, Inc. Provided by the Greater Boston Association of REALTORS® and the Massachusetts Association of REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 8 4.9 4.3 2.9 2.1 1.8 1.2 Single-Family Condominium August 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 Jan-2004 Jan-2005 Jan-2006 Jan-2007 Jan-2008 Jan-2009 Jan-2010 Jan-2011 Jan-2012 Jan-2013 Historical Months Supply of Inventory Single-Family Condominium -40.9%-50.5%-41.1% 20132012 20132012 -38.6% 2011 2011
    • Days on Market Until Sale Average number of days between when a property is listed and when an offer is accepted in a given month. Single-Family YoY Change Condominium YoY Change Sep-2012 89 - 12.0% 85 - 18.1% Oct-2012 90 - 17.4% 84 - 11.5% Nov-2012 89 - 17.9% 77 - 29.9% Dec-2012 97 - 12.4% 84 - 30.1% Jan-2013 109 - 16.5% 88 - 29.5% Feb-2013 111 - 17.2% 95 - 22.8% Mar-2013 108 - 17.5% 72 - 39.0% Apr-2013 94 - 22.1% 63 - 35.1% May-2013 75 - 22.1% 51 - 40.4% Jun-2013 56 - 37.2% 43 - 42.4% Jul-2013 47 - 41.9% 38 - 46.0% Aug-2013 48 - 44.9% 40 - 47.7% Total 76 - 25.5% 59 - 31.8% All data from MLS Property Information Network, Inc. Provided by the Greater Boston Association of REALTORS® and the Massachusetts Association of REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 9 93 93 87 76 48 40 Single-Family Condominium August 30 50 70 90 110 130 150 Jan-2003 Jan-2004 Jan-2005 Jan-2006 Jan-2007 Jan-2008 Jan-2009 Jan-2010 Jan-2011 Jan-2012 Jan-2013 Historical Days on Market Until Sale Single-Family Condominium -47.7%-18.2%-5.7% 102 104 101 88 70 54 Single-Family Condominium Year to Date -39.0%-15.3%-1.7% 20132012 20132012 20132012 20132012 -44.9% -30.3% 2011 2011 2011 2011
    • Percent of Original List Price Received Single-Family YoY Change Condominium YoY Change Sep-2012 94.6% + 1.5% 96.4% + 2.3% Oct-2012 94.3% + 2.8% 95.9% + 2.4% Nov-2012 94.6% + 2.4% 96.2% + 2.5% Dec-2012 94.2% + 2.2% 96.2% + 3.4% Jan-2013 93.8% + 3.7% 95.9% + 3.1% Feb-2013 94.1% + 3.2% 96.6% + 3.4% Mar-2013 95.2% + 2.4% 97.6% + 3.8% Apr-2013 96.7% + 3.4% 98.8% + 3.3% May-2013 97.8% + 2.6% 99.5% + 3.5% Jun-2013 98.3% + 3.1% 99.7% + 3.5% Jul-2013 98.1% + 2.4% 99.9% + 3.5% Aug-2013 97.9% + 3.2% 99.7% + 3.5% Average 96.4% + 2.7% 98.1% + 3.2% All data from MLS Property Information Network, Inc. Provided by the Greater Boston Association of REALTORS® and the Massachusetts Association of REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 10 Percentage found when dividing a property’s sales price by its original list price, then taking the average for all properties sold in a given month, not accounting for seller concessions. 93.4% 94.2%94.8% 96.3%97.9% 99.7% Single-Family Condominium August 89% 91% 93% 95% 97% 99% 101% Jan-2003 Jan-2004 Jan-2005 Jan-2006 Jan-2007 Jan-2008 Jan-2009 Jan-2010 Jan-2011 Jan-2012 Jan-2013 Historical Percent of Original List Price Received Single-Family Condominium +3.5%+2.2%+1.5% 93.4% 94.1%94.3% 95.7%97.1% 99.0% Single-Family Condominium Year to Date +3.4%+1.7%+1.0% 20132012 20132012 20132012 20132012 +3.2% +3.0% 2011 2011 2011 2011
    • Pending Sales A count of the properties in UAG status between the first and last day in a given month, regardless of current status (based on Off Market Date). Single-Family YoY Change Condominium YoY Change Sep-2012 874 + 28.7% 743 + 38.1% Oct-2012 884 + 19.1% 794 + 34.3% Nov-2012 693 + 12.9% 603 + 9.6% Dec-2012 514 + 8.7% 462 + 11.3% Jan-2013 636 + 3.9% 663 + 19.9% Feb-2013 718 - 5.5% 718 - 4.0% Mar-2013 1,199 + 3.9% 1,178 + 10.3% Apr-2013 1,414 + 13.9% 1,285 + 9.8% May-2013 1,529 + 17.9% 1,289 + 9.1% Jun-2013 1,312 + 10.3% 1,109 + 10.9% Jul-2013 1,034 + 8.6% 982 + 21.7% Aug-2013 972 + 23.2% 823 + 12.1% Total 11,779 + 12.1% 10,649 + 13.8% All data from MLS Property Information Network, Inc. Provided by the Greater Boston Association of REALTORS® and the Massachusetts Association of REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 11 708 612 789 734 972 823 Single-Family Condominium August 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 2,200 Jan-2003 Jan-2004 Jan-2005 Jan-2006 Jan-2007 Jan-2008 Jan-2009 Jan-2010 Jan-2011 Jan-2012 Jan-2013 Historical Pending Sales Activity Single-Family Condominium +12.1%+19.9%+11.4% 6,597 5,865 7,995 7,261 8,814 8,047 Single-Family Condominium Year to Date +10.8%+23.8%+21.2% 20132012 20132012 20132012 20132012 +23.2% +10.2% 2011 2011 2011 2011
    • New Listings A count of the properties that have been newly listed on the market in a given month. Single-Family YoY Change Condominium YoY Change Sep-2012 1,419 - 10.2% 1,153 - 9.6% Oct-2012 1,079 - 4.5% 882 - 2.0% Nov-2012 648 - 3.4% 561 - 10.4% Dec-2012 366 - 19.0% 319 - 17.8% Jan-2013 903 - 6.3% 916 - 4.0% Feb-2013 1,029 - 22.0% 966 - 15.3% Mar-2013 1,395 - 30.5% 1,367 - 21.5% Apr-2013 2,052 + 14.1% 1,696 + 13.1% May-2013 2,044 + 14.6% 1,546 + 11.5% Jun-2013 1,544 + 14.3% 1,251 + 8.6% Jul-2013 1,164 + 13.9% 1,006 + 11.4% Aug-2013 1,063 + 6.2% 875 + 10.8% Total 14,706 - 2.5% 12,538 - 1.7% All data from MLS Property Information Network, Inc. Provided by the Greater Boston Association of REALTORS® and the Massachusetts Association of REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 12 1,096 854 1,001 790 1,063 875 Single-Family Condominium August 0 250 500 750 1,000 1,250 1,500 1,750 2,000 2,250 2,500 2,750 Jan-2003 Jan-2004 Jan-2005 Jan-2006 Jan-2007 Jan-2008 Jan-2009 Jan-2010 Jan-2011 Jan-2012 Jan-2013 Historical New Listing Activity Single-Family Condominium +10.8%-7.5%-8.7% 11,360 10,422 11,246 9,567 11,194 9,623 Single-Family Condominium Year to Date +0.6%-8.2%-1.0% 20132012 20132012 20132012 20132012 +6.2% -0.5% 2011 2011 2011 2011
    • City of Boston – Market Overview Key market metrics for the current month and year-to-date figures for the City of Boston. Key Metrics Historical Sparklines Aug-2012 Aug-2013 + / – YTD 2012 YTD 2013 + / – + 3.1% Median Sales Price $395,000 $449,000 + 13.7% $400,000 $434,250 + 8.6% Closed Sales 688 712 + 3.5% 3,803 3,921 - 12.6% Inventory of Homes for Sale 1,298 833 - 35.8% -- -- -- Housing Affordability Index 105 93 - 11.6% 110 96 -- Days on Market Until Sale 72 36 - 50.5% 86 47 - 45.7% Months Supply of Inventory 1.9 1.2 - 38.0% -- -- + 3.5% Pending Sales 392 425 + 8.4% 4,049 4,392 + 8.5% Percent of Original List Price Received 95.9% 99.6% + 3.8% 95.5% 98.8% - 0.8% All data from MLS Property Information Network, Inc. Provided by the Greater Boston Association of REALTORS® and the Massachusetts Association of REALTORS®. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 13 New Listings 434 445 + 2.5% 5,401 5,357 8-2010 8-2011 8-2012 8-2013 8-2010 8-2011 8-2012 8-2013 8-2010 8-2011 8-2012 8-2013 8-2010 8-2011 8-2012 8-2013 8-2010 8-2011 8-2012 8-2013 8-2010 8-2011 8-2012 8-2013 8-2010 8-2011 8-2012 8-2013 8-2010 8-2011 8-2012 8-2013 8-2010 8-2011 8-2012 8-2013