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Part One:  Risk
Business ClubDefine: Adventure
Business ClubIn order to define an activity as an adventure,there needs to be a considerable amount of risk involved.
Business ClubWhat would yoube willing to risk?
Business Club
Business Club             Qualitative Risk Analysis MatrixE – Extreme Risk   H – High Risk   M – Moderate Risk   L – Low R...
Business Club    How to Place Risks in the MatrixIn a risk assessment matrix risks are placed on thematrix based on two cr...
Business ClubLikelihood of OccurrenceBased on the likelihood of the occurrence of a risk the risks can be classified under...
Business ClubThe consequences of a risk can again be ranked and classified into one of the fivecategories, based on how se...
Business ClubHi there handsome,Wanna play some poker?
Business ClubWith you,Sure thing!
Business ClubHow about$1000 a hand?
Business ClubYeah I can do that!
Business ClubAre you sure youCan win?
Business ClubYou against me?No problem!
Business ClubWhat makes youso sure?
Business ClubI play all the time.I got a mean assPoker face.
Business ClubA poker face isn’tgoing to help you inthis game.You need to knowthe odds of whatyou are getting into.
Business ClubI do; I’m smart.
Business ClubOk Smarty-pants, doyou understand whatyou need to beat me ifI have a Flush?
Business ClubYeah, a full houseIs all.
Business ClubOk and how will youget that?
Business ClubTwo cards of onenumber, three ofanother.
Business ClubAnd what are your oddsOf getting that?
Business ClubPretty good.
Business ClubPretty good?
Business ClubThat’s what I saidisn’t it?
Business ClubDefine “pretty good.”
Business ClubPretty good isPretty good. Betterthan normal good.
Business ClubYour definition seemsto be lacking the duediligence andcomprehensive analysisrequired to properlyanswer the q...
Business ClubWhat now?
Business ClubFirst of all, the odds ofme getting a flush isless than 1%. Now yourodds of getting a fullhouse….
Business ClubA full house consists of a 3 ofa kind (triple) and a pair.There are 4 suits and 13 ranks.Each triple has 3 di...
Business ClubThe number of all pairs ofeach rank is comb(4;2) = 6.The number of all pairs =6*12 = 72 (12 = the numberall r...
Business ClubYeah you just toocute for all thatnumber talk…
Business ClubGo do your homework.I don’t play with chumps.
Part Two:Persuasion
Business ClubThe saying "No man is an island" is an undeniabletruth. We need the support and cooperation of other people t...
Business Club          Persuasion tips:1.Enter Their world2.Mirror their body language3.Be Cheerful and nice4.Be sincere a...
Business ClubDiscussion period:1. What is the difference between perceived risk and actual risk? Why are they   both impor...
Risk and persuasion
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Risk and persuasion

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Jiahua Business Club Jul 4th, 2012

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Transcript of "Risk and persuasion"

  1. 1. Part One: Risk
  2. 2. Business ClubDefine: Adventure
  3. 3. Business ClubIn order to define an activity as an adventure,there needs to be a considerable amount of risk involved.
  4. 4. Business ClubWhat would yoube willing to risk?
  5. 5. Business Club
  6. 6. Business Club Qualitative Risk Analysis MatrixE – Extreme Risk H – High Risk M – Moderate Risk L – Low Risk
  7. 7. Business Club How to Place Risks in the MatrixIn a risk assessment matrix risks are placed on thematrix based on two criteria:Likelihood: the probability of a riskConsequences: the severity of the impact or theextent of damage caused by the risk.
  8. 8. Business ClubLikelihood of OccurrenceBased on the likelihood of the occurrence of a risk the risks can be classified under one of thefive categories:Definite: A risk that is almost certain to show-up during project execution. Ifyou’re looking at percentages a risk that is more than 80% likely to causeproblems will fall under this category.Likely: Risks that have 60-80% chances of occurrence can be grouped as likely.Occasional: Risks which have a near 50/50 probability of occurrence.Seldom: Risks that have a low probability of occurrence but still can not beruled out completely.Unlikely: Rare and exceptional risks which have a less than 10% chance ofoccurrence.
  9. 9. Business ClubThe consequences of a risk can again be ranked and classified into one of the fivecategories, based on how severe the damage can be.Insignificant: Risks that will cause a near negligible amount of damage to the overallprogress of the project.Marginal: If a risk will result in some damage, but the extent of damage is not toosignificant and is not likely to make much of a difference to the overall progress of theproject.Moderate: Risks which do not impose a great threat, but yet a sizable damage can beclassified as moderate.Critical: Risks with significantly large consequences which can lead to a great amountof loss are classified as critical.Catastrophic: These are the risks which can make the project completely unproductiveand unfruitful, and must be a top priority during risk management.
  10. 10. Business ClubHi there handsome,Wanna play some poker?
  11. 11. Business ClubWith you,Sure thing!
  12. 12. Business ClubHow about$1000 a hand?
  13. 13. Business ClubYeah I can do that!
  14. 14. Business ClubAre you sure youCan win?
  15. 15. Business ClubYou against me?No problem!
  16. 16. Business ClubWhat makes youso sure?
  17. 17. Business ClubI play all the time.I got a mean assPoker face.
  18. 18. Business ClubA poker face isn’tgoing to help you inthis game.You need to knowthe odds of whatyou are getting into.
  19. 19. Business ClubI do; I’m smart.
  20. 20. Business ClubOk Smarty-pants, doyou understand whatyou need to beat me ifI have a Flush?
  21. 21. Business ClubYeah, a full houseIs all.
  22. 22. Business ClubOk and how will youget that?
  23. 23. Business ClubTwo cards of onenumber, three ofanother.
  24. 24. Business ClubAnd what are your oddsOf getting that?
  25. 25. Business ClubPretty good.
  26. 26. Business ClubPretty good?
  27. 27. Business ClubThat’s what I saidisn’t it?
  28. 28. Business ClubDefine “pretty good.”
  29. 29. Business ClubPretty good isPretty good. Betterthan normal good.
  30. 30. Business ClubYour definition seemsto be lacking the duediligence andcomprehensive analysisrequired to properlyanswer the question.
  31. 31. Business ClubWhat now?
  32. 32. Business ClubFirst of all, the odds ofme getting a flush isless than 1%. Now yourodds of getting a fullhouse….
  33. 33. Business ClubA full house consists of a 3 ofa kind (triple) and a pair.There are 4 suits and 13 ranks.Each triple has 3 differentsuits. The number of alltriples of each rank is -comb (4;3) = 4. The numberof all triples = 4*13 = 52.
  34. 34. Business ClubThe number of all pairs ofeach rank is comb(4;2) = 6.The number of all pairs =6*12 = 72 (12 = the numberall ranks without the rank ofthe current triple). In the endwe get the probability of fullhouse as 52*72 / 2,598,960 =3,744/2,598,960
  35. 35. Business ClubYeah you just toocute for all thatnumber talk…
  36. 36. Business ClubGo do your homework.I don’t play with chumps.
  37. 37. Part Two:Persuasion
  38. 38. Business ClubThe saying "No man is an island" is an undeniabletruth. We need the support and cooperation of other people to help us in reaching our goals. Successful people know that one of the most important abilities to possess is the ability to persuade and influence others. Here are some hot tips to do this effectively.
  39. 39. Business Club Persuasion tips:1.Enter Their world2.Mirror their body language3.Be Cheerful and nice4.Be sincere and trustworthy5.Provide them with compelling evidence6.Show them what is in it for them7.Appeal to wants not needs
  40. 40. Business ClubDiscussion period:1. What is the difference between perceived risk and actual risk? Why are they both important?2. What was the biggest risk you ever took? What persuaded you to take it?3. What was one time you failed to assess the amount of risk of something you got yourself into?4. When has someone persuaded you to do something that you normally would not have done? Would you do that again today?5. When have you persuaded someone else?6. How do you calculate risk when making big decisions that effect your business or career?7. Have you properly used the art of persuasion when negotiating from a point of weakness? When and how?8. What time of persuasion works better on men than women? Vise versa?
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