Ericsson Mobility Report February 2013: Interim Update

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This document is a scheduled update to some sections of
the Ericsson Mobility Report, released in November 2012.
To view or download a copy of the original report, please visit
http://www.ericsson.com/ericsson-mobility-report.
We will continue to share traffic and market data, along with our analysis, on a regular basis.

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Ericsson Mobility Report February 2013: Interim Update

  1. 1. This document is a scheduled update to some sections of the Ericsson Mobility Report, released in November 2012. To view or download a copy of the original report, please visit www.ericsson.com/ericsson-mobility-report We will continue to share traffic and market data, along with our analysis, on a regular basis. ERICSSON MOBILITY REPORT ON THE PULSE OF THE NETWORKED SOCIETY subscriptions 140 million net additions in Q4 2012. TRAFFIC Data traffic grew by 28% between Q3 and Q4 2012. February 2013 INTERIM UPDATE
  2. 2. Mobile subscriptions update Figure 1: Mobile subscriptions by region, Q4 2012 140 net additions Q4 2012 million 2 ERICSSON MOBILITY REPORT  INTERIM UPDATE FEBRUARY 2013 Mobile subscription figures are estimates as of Q4 2012. Mobile net additions are estimates during Q4 2012. APAC = Asia Pacific. The estimate of mobile net additions has been made based on historic information from external sources and regulatory and operator reports, combined with Ericsson analysis. Historical data may be revised when operators report updated figures. Indian subscriptions have been adjusted to reflect active subscriptions as defined by the telecom regulatory authority in India. This better reflects real subscriber growth at a time when India’s operators have been deleting inactive subscriptions. All measurements are rounded up or down to the nearest million. The sum of all rounded regional data may therefore differ slightly from the rounded total. Figure 1 Source: Ericsson (February 2013) 8 2 9 11 1,120 713 1,260 276 754 680 361 2 15 642 531 303131 NET ADDITIONS (MILLION) MOBILE SUBSCRIPTIONS (MILLlON)
  3. 3. INTERIM UPDATE FEBRUARY 2013  ERICSSON MOBILITY REPORT  3 Global mobile penetration reached 89 percent in Q4 2012 and mobile subscriptions now total around 6.3 billion. However, the actual number of subscribers is around 4.4 billion, since many people have several subscriptions. China alone accounted for ~22 percent of net additions, adding around 30 million subscriptions. India (+11 million), Bangladesh (+9 million), Indonesia (+8 million), and Nigeria (+5 million) follow in terms of net additions. Mobile subscriptions have grown around nine percent year-on-year and two percent quarter-on-quarter. In Q4, mobile broadband subscriptions1 grew ~125 million to 1.5 billion, reflecting a 50 percent year-on-year increase. There is continued strong momentum for smartphone uptake in all regions. Approximately 40 percent of all mobile phones sold during 2012 were smartphones, compared to around 30 percent for the full year 2011. Only around 15-20 percent of the worldwide installed base of mobile phone subscriptions uses smartphones, which means that there is considerable room for further uptake. GSM/GPRS/EDGE subscriptions grew ~44 million and WCDMA/HSPA grew ~70 million. Together these technologies represent ~80 percent of total net additions. LTE subscriptions grew from 14 million to 57 million. 1 Mobile broadband includes handsets, tablets, mobile PCs and mobile routers for the following technologies: HSPA, LTE, CDMA2000 EV-DO, Mobile WiMAX and TD-SCDMA 133% 128% 112% 106% 103% 99% 82% 70% 56% 89% Central Eastern Europe Western Europe Latin America Middle East North America APAC (excluding China India) China Africa India Global penetration Source: Ericsson (February 2013) Figure 2: Penetration percentage Q4 2012 There is a large difference between the number of subscriptions and subscribers. This is due to the fact that many subscribers have several subscriptions. Reasons for this could include users lowering their traffic cost by using optimized subscriptions for different types of calls, maximizing coverage, having different subscriptions for mobile PCs/tablets and for mobile phones. In addition, it takes time before inactive subscriptions are removed from operator databases. Consequently, subscription penetration can easily reach above 100 percent, which is the case in many countries today. It should however be noted that in some developing regions, it is common for several people to share one subscription, having for example a family or village phone. SUBSCRIPTIONS VS SUBSCRIBERS
  4. 4. Mobile traffic update Global traffic in mobile networks Figure 3 shows total monthly data traffic. It depicts stable growth with some seasonal variations. Mobile data subscriptions will grow strongly and drive the increase in data traffic, along with a continuous increase in the average data volumes per subscription. Highlights include: Data traffic doubling between Q4 2011 and Q4 2012 Quarterly growth of 28 percent between Q3 2012 and Q4 2012 It should be noted that there are big differences in traffic levels between markets, regions and operators. These measurements have been performed by Ericsson over several years using a large base of commercial networks that together cover all regions of the world. They form a representative base for calculating world total traffic in mobile networks2 . Figure 3: Global total data traffic in mobile networks, 2007-2012 The contents of this document are based on a number of theoretical dependencies and assumptions and Ericsson shall not be bound by or liable for any statement, representation, undertaking or omission made in this document. Furthermore Ericsson may at any time change the contents of this document at its sole discretion and shall not be liable for the consequences of such changes. Ericsson AB SE-126 25 Stockholm, Sweden Telephone +46 8 719 0000 Fax +46 8 18 40 85 www.ericsson.com EAB-13:009816 Uen A © Ericsson AB 2013 2 Traffic does not include DVB-H, Wi-Fi, or Mobile WiMax. Total(uplink+downlink)monthlytraffic(PetaBytes) 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 Q1 07 Q2 07 Q3 07 Q4 07 Q1 08 Q2 08 Q3 08 Q4 08 Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10 Q4 10 Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12 Q4 12 Source: Ericsson (February 2013) 28% Mobile Data traffic growth between Q3 2012 and Q4 2012 x2 Mobile Data traffic doubled between Q4 2011 and Q4 2012

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