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Queens chamber of commerce vision 2020
Queens chamber of commerce vision 2020
Queens chamber of commerce vision 2020
Queens chamber of commerce vision 2020
Queens chamber of commerce vision 2020
Queens chamber of commerce vision 2020
Queens chamber of commerce vision 2020
Queens chamber of commerce vision 2020
Queens chamber of commerce vision 2020
Queens chamber of commerce vision 2020
Queens chamber of commerce vision 2020
Queens chamber of commerce vision 2020
Queens chamber of commerce vision 2020
Queens chamber of commerce vision 2020
Queens chamber of commerce vision 2020
Queens chamber of commerce vision 2020
Queens chamber of commerce vision 2020
Queens chamber of commerce vision 2020
Queens chamber of commerce vision 2020
Queens chamber of commerce vision 2020
Queens chamber of commerce vision 2020
Queens chamber of commerce vision 2020
Queens chamber of commerce vision 2020
Queens chamber of commerce vision 2020
Queens chamber of commerce vision 2020
Queens chamber of commerce vision 2020
Queens chamber of commerce vision 2020
Queens chamber of commerce vision 2020
Queens chamber of commerce vision 2020
Queens chamber of commerce vision 2020
Queens chamber of commerce vision 2020
Queens chamber of commerce vision 2020
Queens chamber of commerce vision 2020
Queens chamber of commerce vision 2020
Queens chamber of commerce vision 2020
Queens chamber of commerce vision 2020
Queens chamber of commerce vision 2020
Queens chamber of commerce vision 2020
Queens chamber of commerce vision 2020
Queens chamber of commerce vision 2020
Queens chamber of commerce vision 2020
Queens chamber of commerce vision 2020
Queens chamber of commerce vision 2020
Queens chamber of commerce vision 2020
Queens chamber of commerce vision 2020
Queens chamber of commerce vision 2020
Queens chamber of commerce vision 2020
Queens chamber of commerce vision 2020
Queens chamber of commerce vision 2020
Queens chamber of commerce vision 2020
Queens chamber of commerce vision 2020
Queens chamber of commerce vision 2020
Queens chamber of commerce vision 2020
Queens chamber of commerce vision 2020
Queens chamber of commerce vision 2020
Queens chamber of commerce vision 2020
Queens chamber of commerce vision 2020
Queens chamber of commerce vision 2020
Queens chamber of commerce vision 2020
Queens chamber of commerce vision 2020
Queens chamber of commerce vision 2020
Queens chamber of commerce vision 2020
Queens chamber of commerce vision 2020
Queens chamber of commerce vision 2020
Queens chamber of commerce vision 2020
Queens chamber of commerce vision 2020
Queens chamber of commerce vision 2020
Queens chamber of commerce vision 2020
Queens chamber of commerce vision 2020
Queens chamber of commerce vision 2020
Queens chamber of commerce vision 2020
Queens chamber of commerce vision 2020
Queens chamber of commerce vision 2020
Queens chamber of commerce vision 2020
Queens chamber of commerce vision 2020
Queens chamber of commerce vision 2020
Queens chamber of commerce vision 2020
Queens chamber of commerce vision 2020
Queens chamber of commerce vision 2020
Queens chamber of commerce vision 2020
Queens chamber of commerce vision 2020
Queens chamber of commerce vision 2020
Queens chamber of commerce vision 2020
Queens chamber of commerce vision 2020
Queens chamber of commerce vision 2020
Queens chamber of commerce vision 2020
Queens chamber of commerce vision 2020
Queens chamber of commerce vision 2020
Queens chamber of commerce vision 2020
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Queens chamber of commerce vision 2020

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  • NYC grew because of its location on the water
  • Even as the sky scrapers of lower manhattan grew and NYC became the global center for commerce, NYC retained its connection with the waterfront, as finger piers lined the shores of the East and Hudson Rivers.
  • By the late 1980s, much of our waterfront looked like this with shells of former industrial buildings and the shoreline literally crumbling into the river.
  • In 1992, DCP issued the first Comp Waterfront Plan. First time the city examined the entirety of the waterfront. Led to the establishment of waterfront zoning.
  • In the decades since, particularly within the past 10 years, we have made a remarkable transformation of the waterfront.
  • But we can’t rest on our laurels. Needed to examine the entirety of the waterfront once again, make certain we have a plan for the future. Take advantage of this remarkable opportunity.Our water is our identity, the connective tissue between our boroughs and is, in effect, our Sixth Borough.
  • The plan was built around significant public involvement. A full year of participatory planning.
  • Workshops in each of the five boroughs
  • Interagency working group- led by DCP.
  • Culminated in plan that is organized by eight goals.Starting with public access.
  • The WRP is a regulatory review tool that reviews discretionary projects within the Coastal Zone. It is not a plan, it is not a funding mechanism, but rather it is a set of policies that aim to reconcile competing interests on the waterfront by laying out policies that discretionary projects must be consistent with.
  • In its current form, the WRP covers 10 policy areas: Residential and Commercial Redevelopment, Maritime and Industrial Development, the Use of the Waterways,Ecological Resources, WaterQuality, Flooding and Erosion, Solid and Hazardous Waste, Public Access, Visual Quality, and Historic Resources
  • One major change in the WRP revisions is the introduction of climate change consideration. Based on projections of sea level rise determined by the NPCC, projects will be required to assess the risks of climate change and coastal flooding and storm surge on the planning and design of their projects. Applicants are encouraged to incorporate design strategies that minimize these risks. Additionally, a new policy is proposed that requires projects that store industrial or hazardous materials, such as open industrial piles, to examine the public health risks in the event of coastal flooding or storm surge.
  • This study is grounded in an understanding of the scale and diversity of New York City’s coastal zone. The coastal zone includes extensive wetlands of Jamaica Bay and Long Island Sound, urban centers and industrial areas, beachfront communities, and neighborhoods of all kinds.Because of this diversity of geography and uses, there is not a one-size fits all approach to climate resilience. Different areas face different kinds of risks and will require different strategies. As we saw with Sandy, different areas of the city experience even the same storm very differently due to their geography.
  • As we explained at the last meeting, we are focused on both the gradual impacts of sea level rise and the impact of sea level rise on sudden events.The lowest lying areas of the city will be vulnerable to regular inundation as sea level rise. And soft shorelines and weakened shoreline structures will be more vulnerable to erosion.In addition, sea level rise will result in higher storm surges and a larger flood zone. In some areas of the city coastal flooding is accompanied by strong weave forces which create additional damages.
  • *the threat is regular (daily and weekly) high tide flooding*flooding is more significant in certain places due to land use characteristics*amount of overtopping varies by location
  • At the scale of the reach, there are large infrastructural solutions such as surge barriers, which are used in combination with levees to protect large areas. We’re also looking at more innovative ideas of large-scale protection through landform creations, such as the Palisades Bay proposal from Guy Nordenson and ARO, and many of the rising Currents exhibits that followed.
  • We’ve laid out of process for identifying and evaluating potential adaptive strategies. The goal of this process is to identify what strategies to implement in which locations and at what point in time.This process is intended to be used by planners in a variety of contexts and is intended to be a part of a larger strategic planning process, such as a coastal adaptation plan for a specific community, or a regional study for increased flood protection.
  • Risk is composed of two distinct parts: Coastal Hazards and Vulnerabilities. Risk can change over time, as hazards and vulnerabilities change due to climate change and development/demographic changes.
  • We’ve laid out of process for identifying and evaluating potential adaptive strategies. The goal of this process is to identify what strategies to implement in which locations and at what point in time.This process is intended to be used by planners in a variety of contexts and is intended to be a part of a larger strategic planning process, such as a coastal adaptation plan for a specific community, or a regional study for increased flood protection.
  • The Mayor has tasked us with answering 3 important questions:What happened during and after Sandy?There has been a lot of work done here, but thus far no one has compiled it into one placeWhat could happen in the future?Looking out to two time horizons – 2020 and 2050Considering not just Sandy but extreme weather events like heat waves, snowstorms, torrential rains, etc.How do we rebuild post-Sandy and prepare for the future?These questions are to be answered Citywide for critical systems and infrastructure, and locally for community recovery and rebuilding.
  • *the threat is regular (daily and weekly) high tide flooding*flooding is more significant in certain places due to land use characteristics*amount of overtopping varies by location
  • Water flooded directly over the City’s coastal edgesThe peak of the storm surge coincided with high tide in the lower harbor, overtopping of beaches and shorelinesUpper harbor storm surge coincided with low tideWater found indirect routes over the City’s backbay coastal edgesWater finds its level and seeks equilibriumBeaches and shorelines were flanked by backbay inlets and creeks, allowing water to flood neighborhoods that lie lower than their direct ocean-facing and harbor-facing protectionsWater found indirect routes through the City’s drainage and outfall networkFailed and missing tide gates provided an early path for water into low-lying neighborhoods (eg Naughton Avenue)Breaking waves acted on structures, particularly in areas with no beach nourishment or dunes in placeMany coastal protections were nonexistent or insufficient to break waves and prevent inland wave action on buildingsWave action accounted for over 80% damaged buildingsNourished beaches and dunes protected some coastal communities by limiting wave actionDunes broke waves and absorbed energyBeach nourishment projects broke waves and absorbed energyLocal resiliency efforts and natural characteristics protected some waterfront communitiesNatural topography and elevation improvements raised certain development projects above the storm surge water levelsDrainage improvements, included elevated outfalls, continued to function during the storm, carrying storm surge waters away from homes and businessesWetlands with berms with an elevation greater than the storm surge water levels successfully resisted the water forces
  • Water flooded directly over the City’s coastal edgesThe peak of the storm surge coincided with high tide in the lower harbor, overtopping of beaches and shorelinesUpper harbor storm surge coincided with low tideWater found indirect routes over the City’s backbay coastal edgesWater finds its level and seeks equilibriumBeaches and shorelines were flanked by backbay inlets and creeks, allowing water to flood neighborhoods that lie lower than their direct ocean-facing and harbor-facing protectionsWater found indirect routes through the City’s drainage and outfall networkFailed and missing tide gates provided an early path for water into low-lying neighborhoods (eg Naughton Avenue)Breaking waves acted on structures, particularly in areas with no beach nourishment or dunes in placeMany coastal protections were nonexistent or insufficient to break waves and prevent inland wave action on buildingsWave action accounted for over 80% damaged buildingsNourished beaches and dunes protected some coastal communities by limiting wave actionDunes broke waves and absorbed energyBeach nourishment projects broke waves and absorbed energyLocal resiliency efforts and natural characteristics protected some waterfront communitiesNatural topography and elevation improvements raised certain development projects above the storm surge water levelsDrainage improvements, included elevated outfalls, continued to function during the storm, carrying storm surge waters away from homes and businessesWetlands with berms with an elevation greater than the storm surge water levels successfully resisted the water forces
  • *given that plan A (barriers) never get built or takes many years before protection is in place, we need interim steps and plan B permanent steps*how do we evaluate these interim and plan B steps? Risk map highlights areas of greatest financial and human danger*flooding risk is identified by a combination of existing geomorphology and land use*also needs to account for critical infrastructure locations and expanded wave zones
  • The Mayor has tasked us with answering 3 important questions:What happened during and after Sandy?There has been a lot of work done here, but thus far no one has compiled it into one placeWhat could happen in the future?Looking out to two time horizons – 2020 and 2050Considering not just Sandy but extreme weather events like heat waves, snowstorms, torrential rains, etc.How do we rebuild post-Sandy and prepare for the future?These questions are to be answered Citywide for critical systems and infrastructure, and locally for community recovery and rebuilding.
  • We’re studying the urban design and zoning implications of designing buildings to higher flood elevations, or “freeboard.” Much of New York’s building stock, even within the flood zones, are multistory with active ground uses. If buildings were designed with raised first floors, this could have very negative impacts on the public realm and streetscape of our downtown areas and neighborhoods. We’re analyzing our current zoning for how to allow for and encourage design practices that allow for high flood protection while maintaining the high quality of the city’s urban design.
  • Transcript

    • 1. New York City, 19th c.
    • 2. Lower Manhattan, circa 1930s
    • 3. Greenpoint Terminal Market, Brooklyn
    • 4. Harlem River Park, Manhattan BEFORE AFTER TRANSFORMATIONS ON THE WATERFRONT
    • 5. Manhattan, Hudson River Waterfront, Pier 66 BEFORE AFTER TRANSFORMATIONS ON THE WATERFRONT
    • 6. Brooklyn Bridge Park, East River Waterfront BEFORE AFTER TRANSFORMATIONS ON THE WATERFRONT
    • 7. Concrete Plant Park, the Bronx BEFORE AFTER TRANSFORMATIONS ON THE WATERFRONT
    • 8. • 520 miles. • An international harbor city. • Water as part of New Yorker’s daily experience. THE OPPORTUNITY
    • 9. VISION 2020: NEW YORK CITY COMPREHENSIVE WATERFRONT PLAN VISION 2020 PROCESS Phase 1: Identify Goals and Issues, Spring 2010 • Citywide Public Meeting, April 8 Phase 2: Identify Opportunities and Priorities, Summer 2010 • The Bronx Workshop, May 12 • Brooklyn, May 17 • Queens, June 2 • Manhattan Workshop, June 8 • Staten Island, June 28 • The Blue Network, June 24 and July 19 Phase 3: Identify Recommendations, Fall 2010 • Draft Recommendations Issued, September 7 • Citywide Public Meeting, October 12
    • 10. VISION 2020: NEW YORK CITY COMPREHENSIVE WATERFRONT PLAN VISION 2020 PROCESS
    • 11. GOAL 1 Expand public access to the waterfront and waterways on public and private property for all New Yorkers and visitors alike. VISION 2020: NEW YORK CITY COMPREHENSIVE WATERFRONT PLAN Franklin D. Roosevelt Boardwalk and Beach on the Atlantic Ocean Staten Island Daniel Avila, NYC Department of Parks & Recreation
    • 12. GOAL 2 VISION 2020: NEW YORK CITY COMPREHENSIVE WATERFRONT PLAN Enliven the waterfront with a range of attractive uses integrated with adjacent upland communities. Walkway at Northside Pier in Williamsburg, Brooklyn
    • 13. GOAL 3 VISION 2020: NEW YORK CITY COMPREHENSIVE WATERFRONT PLAN Support economic development activity on the working waterfront. Crew of the Thomas J. Brown pulling in slack line from a barge. © Carolina Salguero
    • 14. GOAL 4 VISION 2020: NEW YORK CITY COMPREHENSIVE WATERFRONT PLAN Improve water quality through measures that benefit natural habitats, support public recreation, and enhance waterfront and upland communities. Oysters from the Bay Ridge Flats Restoration Project..
    • 15. GOAL 5 VISION 2020: NEW YORK CITY COMPREHENSIVE WATERFRONT PLAN Restore degraded natural waterfront areas, and protect wetlands and shorefront habitats. American Oystercatchers in Jamaica Bay. Dan Riepe
    • 16. GOAL 6 VISION 2020: NEW YORK CITY COMPREHENSIVE WATERFRONT PLAN Enhance the public experience of the waterways that surround New York—our Blue Network. On the Hudson River near the George Washington Bridge. Daniel Avila, NYC Department of Parks & Recreation
    • 17. GOAL 7 VISION 2020: NEW YORK CITY COMPREHENSIVE WATERFRONT PLAN Improve government regulation, coordination, and oversight of the waterfront and waterways. Construction of the new WNYC Transmitter Park on the East River, Brooklyn
    • 18. GOAL 8 VISION 2020: NEW YORK CITY COMPREHENSIVE WATERFRONT PLAN Identify and pursue strategies to increase the city’s resilience to climate change and sea level rise. The seawall at Battery Park City, Manhattan
    • 19. Waterfront Revitalization Program (WRP) 22
    • 20. What is the WRP? The Waterfront Revitalization Program is a regulatory review tool. All projects within New York City’s Coastal Zone which require a federal, state or city discretionary action are subject to WRP review. 23 Background
    • 21. There are 10 policy areas in the WRP: 1. Residential and Commercial Redevelopment 2. Maritime and Industrial Development 3. Waterways Usage 4. Ecological Resources Protection 5. Water Quality 6. Flooding and Erosion 7. Hazardous Materials 8. Public Access 9. Visual Quality 10. Historic, Archaeological, and Cultural Resources 24 Background
    • 22. Introduce Climate Change to the WRP 25 • Require projects to closely examine the risks associated with coastal flooding based on climate change projections. Governors Island Park Master Plan takes in sea level rise into consideration, elevating many sections of the park above the projected future flood plain. Image: West 8 Team
    • 23. COASTAL CLIMATE RESILIENCE Urban Waterfront Adaptive Strategies 26 26 Photo: dland Studio
    • 24. The coastal zone is large and diverse. Different areas face different risks and will require different strategies. Alley Pond Creek, Queens Rockaways, Queens Upper Bay Williamsburg, Brooklyn COASTAL CLIMATE RESILIENCE URBAN WATERFRONT ADAPTIVE STRATEGIES
    • 25. COASTAL CLIMATE RESILIENCE 28 Coastal hazards range from sudden and severe events to gradual changes in conditions. High Tide Flooding Due to Sea Level Rise Long Term Erosion Storm Surge Flooding Rapid Erosion Wave Forces Coastal Hazards COASTAL CLIMATE RESILIENCE URBAN WATERFRONT ADAPTIVE STRATEGIES
    • 26. COASTAL CLIMATE RESILIENCE Coastal Area Typologies 29 Geologic Formations Sources: Reconnaissance Soil Survey, New York City Soil and Water Conservation District, 2005 Landforms created by glacial processes relate to underlying soil composition and land elevation. Lower-lying areas are generally more vulnerable to storm surge. Softer soils are generally more vulnerable to erosion.
    • 27. COASTAL CLIMATE RESILIENCE Coastal Area Typologies 30 Exposure to Wave Forces Areas with a greater distance to an adjacent shoreline (“fetch”) are more exposed to waves. High Fetch Low Fetch Waves are also highly dependent on the direction of winds during a storm. FEMA’s V zones are mapped to areas where there is a risk of significant wave action. FEMA Special Flood Hazard Areas
    • 28. CONFIDENTIAL COASTAL CLIMATE RESILIENCE Some low-lying areas of New York City will be flooded in the future from regular tides, even without a coastal storm. Coastal Area Typologies Hamilton Beach, Queens, Spring High Tide
    • 29. COASTAL CLIMATE RESILIENCE Coastal Area Typologies 32 Geomorphology Categories Oceanfront Beaches Bay and estuary plains, natural shores Bay and estuary plains, hardened shores Oceanfront plains, hardened shores Sheltered Rocky Bluffs Sheltered Bluffs, reinforced shores Oceanfront Slopes Sheltered Slopes, hardened shores Rocky/Sandy Sheltered Slopes 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Exposure to: Surge Erosion Waves High Medium Low SLR
    • 30. COASTAL CLIMATE RESILIENCE Coastal Area Typologies 33 Land Use Types One-Two Family Buildings Multi-family Walkup Buildings Multi-family Elevator Buildings Mixed commercial/residential Commercial – Office Buildings Industrial - Manufacturing Transportation - Utility Public Facilities - Institutions Open Space Parking Facilities Vacant Land We sampled 65 areas of the city to arrive at coastal area typologies.
    • 31. COASTAL CLIMATE RESILIENCE 34Coastal Area Typologies Selected Typology Open Space Low/Medium Density Industrial Industrial/Low Density Residential Industrial/ Medium Density Residential Low Density Residential Medium Density Residential High Density Residential / Commercial Very High Density Commercial Oceanfront Beaches Orchard Beach (#527) (also Breezy Point; Great Kills Park) Midland Beach (#459); Belle Harbor South (#433); Sea Gate (#49); Manhattan Beach (#56) Coney Island West (#54); Rockaway Beach (#530) Bay and estuary plains, natural shores Pelham Bay Park (#290) (also Jamaica Bay, portions of Staten Island West Shore) Kreisherville (#491) (Also Gowanus Bay, Flushing Creek) Douglaston (#351); Broad Channel (#393); Far Rockaway (#400); Canarsie (#98) Marine Park (#71); Edgemere (#405); Starrett City (#531); Coop City (#273) Bay and estuary plains, hardenedshores Bloomfield (#506); Bowery Bay (#318; Newtown Creek East (#529) Gowanus East (#528); Gowanus West (#24); Red Hook (#21); Newtown Creek West (#2); Greenpoint North (#7); Long Island City(#306); Mott Haven (#205); Greenpoint West (#10); Sherman Creek (#144); Gerritsen Beach (#68); Great Kills (#471); Howard Beach North (#361); Belle Harbor North (#412) East Harlem South (#156); East Village (#166); East Harlem North (#152); North Corona (#325) Chelsea (#120), Soho/Tribeca (#117) Battery Park City (#115); Lower Manhattan (#171) Oceanfront plains, hardened shores Gravesend Bay Bath Beach ShelteredSlopes, hardened shores Flushing Bay (#331); Port Morris (#290); Sunset Park South (#30) Mariner's Harbor (#516) DUMBO (#15); Edgewater (#526) Throggs Neck (#258); Whitestone (#340); Country Club (#266); City Island (#297); College Point (#335) Bay Ridge (#35); Astoria (#310) Brooklyn Heights (#18); Kips Bay (#163) Rocky/Sandy Sheltered Slopes Westchester Creek (#248) Lower Bronx River (#218) Riverdale (#191) Oceanfront slopes Butler Manor Woods Prince's Bay (#478); Tottenville (#484) Sheltered, rocky bluffs Inwood Hill Park Norwood (#224) Shelteredbluffs, reinforced shores West Harlem (#134); Morris Heights (#199) Upper West Side (#126)
    • 32. COASTAL CLIMATE RESILIENCE Coastal Area Typologies 35 Land Use Types One-Two Family Buildings Multi-family Walkup Buildings Multi-family Elevator Buildings Mixed commercial/residential Commercial – Office Buildings Industrial - Manufacturing Transportation - Utility Public Facilities - Institutions Open Space Parking Facilities Vacant Land We sampled 65 areas of the city to arrive at coastal area typologies.
    • 33. COASTAL CLIMATE RESILIENCE Coastal Area Typologies Different areas face specific types and levels of risks, and therefore require different strategies.
    • 34. COASTAL CLIMATE RESILIENCECOASTAL CLIMATE RESILIENCE Miami Beach 37 COASTAL REACH STRATEGIES In-Land Shoreline In-Water Bulkhead Seawall Revetment Levee/Dike Beaches & Dunes Groin Floating Islands Living Shoreline Breakwater Artificial Reef Constructed Wetland Constructed Breakwater Island Coastal Morphology Modification Elevate Land Floodwall Waterfront Park Strategic Retreat Multi-purpose Levee Surge Barrier Protect building systems Dry floodproofing Elevate on enclosure/ Wet floodproofing Elevate on fill Or mound Elevate on piles Site protection Floating Structures Amphibious Structures BUILDING & SITE SCALE STRATEGIES There are many potential strategies at various scales. OTHER RELATED STRATEGIES  Infrastructure Adaptation  Land use management  Insurance  Emergency Preparedness Polder Inventory of Adaptive Strategies
    • 35. 38 COASTAL CLIMATE RESILIENCECOASTAL CLIMATE RESILIENCE Strategies for New Construction Elevate on Piles Strategies for New Construction Staten Island, South Shore
    • 36. 39 COASTAL CLIMATE RESILIENCECOASTAL CLIMATE RESILIENCE Strategies for Existing Buildings Protect Building Systems Strategies for New Construction Staten Island, South ShoreNew Orleans, Louisiana
    • 37. 40 COASTAL CLIMATE RESILIENCECOASTAL CLIMATE RESILIENCE Shoreline Strategies Seawall Strategies for New Construction Staten Island, South ShoreNew Orleans, Louisiana Blackpool, United Kingdom (Image Credit: AECOM)
    • 38. 41 COASTAL CLIMATE RESILIENCECOASTAL CLIMATE RESILIENCE In-Water Strategies Artificial Reef Strategies for New Construction Staten Island, South ShoreNew Orleans, Louisiana Reef Balls. Image courtesy of NY/NJ Baykeeper. Fort Pierce Marina, Florida.
    • 39. COASTAL CLIMATE RESILIENCECOASTAL CLIMATE RESILIENCE Evaluation Framework and Process: What? Where? And When? This is a flexible process to identify strategies that can implemented across various physical and time scales. 42Evaluation Framework Assess Hazards, Vulnerabilities, and Risk2 Identify Potential Strategies3 Evaluate Potential Strategies4 Develop Adaptation Pathways5 Implement Strategies6 Identify Study Area and Sub-Areas1 Monitor and reassess.
    • 40. COASTAL CLIMATE RESILIENCECOASTAL CLIMATE RESILIENCE  Hazards with the greatest consequences and highest probabilities present a higher risk than those will low consequences or low probabilities.  Risk can be managed through mitigation actions that reduce the likelihood of an impact or the magnitude of consequences, but risk cannot be fully eliminated. Likelihood of an event Magnitude of consequences Risk Risk is defined as a product of the likelihood of an event occurring (typically expressed as a probability) and the magnitude of consequences should that event occur. 43Risk and Vulnerability COASTAL CLIMATE RESILIENCE URBAN WATERFRONT ADAPTIVE STRATEGIES
    • 41. Assess Hazards, Vulnerabilities, and Risk COASTAL CLIMATE RESILIENCECOASTAL CLIMATE RESILIENCE Risk is an interaction between coastal hazards and vulnerabilities. Coastal Hazards Vulnerabilities Tidal Flooding Populations Built Environment Infrastructure Natural Resources RISK Storm surge Erosion Waves Storm Surge For example, Built Environment 44Risk and Vulnerability COASTAL CLIMATE RESILIENCE URBAN WATERFRONT ADAPTIVE STRATEGIES
    • 42. COASTAL CLIMATE RESILIENCECOASTAL CLIMATE RESILIENCE Types of CostsTypes of Benefits Residual risk Construction, maintenance and operation costs Environmental degradation Socioeconomic and equity impacts Negative impacts on public realm/urban design Contributions to climate change Inconsistency with local goals and plans Risk Reduction Avoided costs Environmental benefits Socioeconomic and equity benefits Improvements to the public realm/urban design Climate mitigation benefits Furthering local goals, plans Evaluation of costs and benefits should look at direct & indirect metrics, and quantifiable and non-quantifiable categories. 45Evaluation and Implement
    • 43. COASTAL CLIMATE RESILIENCECOASTAL CLIMATE RESILIENCE Urban Waterfront Adaptive Strategies is an information resource and guide with broad applicability, for example: 46Applications For the SIRR report, A Stronger, More Resilient New York For the Army Corps North Atlantic Coast Comprehensive Study For local communities developing adaptation plans Informed the analysis and recommendations for coastal strategies. A catalog of potential measures and framework for measuring costs and benefits. Guidance on approaching a complicated decision-making process.
    • 44. COASTAL CLIMATE RESILIENCE Special Initiative for Rebuilding and Resiliency: A Stronger, More Resilient New York 47 47 Photo: dland Studio
    • 45. CONFIDENTIAL Overview In response to Hurricane Sandy, Mayor Bloomberg set up a special initiative (“SIRR”) to answer three key questions. Question 2 Question 3 How do we rebuild post-Sandy and prepare for a future with climate change? What could happen in the future? Question 1 What happened during Sandy and why?
    • 46. CONFIDENTIAL Hurricane Sandy’s most distinctive feature was its record-shattering surge (and relatively low wind and rain), caused by the confluence of highly unusual factors. Source: UCAR/ NCAR, NOAA Question 1: What Happened During Sandy? Sandy eclipsed the previous record, set in 1960, by almost 40% Note:  Among top 10 high water marks at the Battery since 1900, all are post-1950 Top Ten High-Water Events at the Battery, 1900-2012
    • 47. Source: NASA, NOAA, AGU Blogosphere, Question 1: What Happened During Sandy? Hurricane Katrina (August 28, 2005) Hurricane Sandy (October 28, 2012) Hurricane Wind Fields 100 milesScale: Gusts extended 1,000 milesGusts extended 300 miles Among Sandy’s distinctive features was a wind field that was more than three times that of Katrina…
    • 48. Cause of the Westward Hook:  Jet stream: Hurricane Sandy was steered between a blocking high pressure system in northern Canada and a low pressure trough over the Southeast U.S. Source: Bostinno.com, NOAA, AGU Blogosphere, National Weather Service, Slate.com …Sandy also took a path that included a rare “westward hook,” rather than a more traditional northeasterly path, putting the city in the path of its onshore winds… If Sandy had not been reclassified a “post- tropical cyclone” shortly before crossing the NJ coast, it would have been only the third hurricane to hit NJ since 1878 Question 1: What Happened During Sandy?
    • 49. CONFIDENTIAL Question 1: What Happened During Sandy? The Battery: Water Levels (Tide + Surge)
    • 50. CONFIDENTIAL …In fact, had Sandy arrived nine hours earlier, it likely would have had a significant impact on communities and infrastructure in the Bronx and Northern Queens. Sandy Inundation: Actual Question 1: What Could Happen in the Future? Sandy Inundation: Simulated 9 Hrs Earlier More significant impacts than were experienced during Sandy likely would have occurred at Hunts Point, LaGuardia Airport, key power generation facilities, and other locations
    • 51. CONFIDENTIAL 10/29 – 8:00pm 10/29 – 10:00pm The change in wind direction from the northeast to the southeast increased wave action along the city’s Ocean-facing shoreline …The direction of the wind – and shifts in its direction – also helped determine the extent of damage in different parts of the city. Wind predominantly out of the northeast, driving southwesterly Wind predominantly out of the southeast, driving northwesterly Question 1: What Happened During Sandy?
    • 52. CONFIDENTIAL The confluence of all of these factors led to particularly significant damage along the Atlantic Coast and in the Harbor. STILLWATER FLOODING Harbor and other areas to the north generally experienced inundation only  Flooding caused damage primarily to building systems and contents, as well as critical infrastructure SURGE AND WAVE ACTION Ocean-facing shorelines experienced inundation plus wave action  Wave action plus smaller, lighter building stock caused damage to building systems and contents and critical infrastructure and caused severe structural damage to buildings (especially along ocean shoreline) Stillwater FloodingSurge and Wave Action Upper Harbor Atlantic Coast DOB Tagging by Flood Type and Geography Question 1: What Happened During Sandy?
    • 53. CONFIDENTIAL Sandy’s massive, but idiosyncratic, impact on New York City teaches three important lessons. 1. The City should not focus on preparing for “the next Sandy”  An exact repeat of Sandy is highly unlikely (though not impossible) 2. That said, Sandy devastated many of those impacted and the City must help them rebuild 3. And, even if it may not repeat again exactly, Sandy serves as a harbinger of a type of risk to which New York is (and will increasingly be) vulnerable Lessons of Hurricane Sandy Question 1: What Happened During Sandy?
    • 54. CONFIDENTIAL FEMA’s new Preliminary Work Maps, though, are only one of the pieces needed to solve the city’s climate risk puzzle. Question 2: What Could Happen in the Future? Future Risks of Downpours Future Risks of Heat Waves Future Risks of Drought Future Risks of Sea Level Rise PWMs Maps are based on historic data and do not address…
    • 55. CONFIDENTIAL An important tool for understanding the risks facing the city from climate change is the New York City Panel on Climate Change (NPCC), created out of PlaNYC... Background  Advises City on latest climate science  Codified in August 2012 legislation, requiring regular updates Member and Technical Team Institutions  Columbia University  CUNY  NASA  Princeton University  Rutgers University  SUNY  Stevens Institute of Technology  University of Pennsylvania  Wesleyan University 2009 2010 Question 2: What Could Happen in the Future?
    • 56. CONFIDENTIAL …At the Administration’s request, the NPCC updated a groundbreaking 2009 analysis of how climate change might impact New York for SIRR. Question 2: What Could Happen in the Future? # of 90+ degree days could double (or triple), to current level of Birmingham, AL Sea levels likely to rise 1- 2 ft. and could rise by > 2 ½ ft. (on top of 1 ft. since 1900)
    • 57. CONFIDENTIAL Question 2: What Could Happen in the Future? Using the NPCC projections, the City, with the CUNY Institute for Sustainable Cities, developed maps showing how floodplains will expand by the 2050s… FEMA PWMs, with 2020s and 2050s Floodplain Growth 100-YEAR FLOODPLAIN* 2013 PWMs 2050s Projected Change (%) Residents 398,000 801,000 101% Jobs 271,000 430,000 59% Buildings 68,000 114,000 68% Floor Area (SF) 534M 855M 60% * Numbers are rounded for clarity
    • 58. CONFIDENTIAL Areas Experiencing Regular Tidal Flooding by 2050s …The City’s analysis also shows that much of New York’s coast will be subject to regular tidal flooding by the 2050s, even without storms. Question 2: What Could Happen in the Future? POTENTIAL SEA LEVEL RISE IMPACTS Borough Waterfront (miles) Risk of Tidal Flooding (miles) (%) Bronx 86.7 6.2 7% Brooklyn 113.3 11.5 10% Manhattan 44.8 1.3 3% Queens 155.1 21.4 14% Staten Island 120.1 2.6 2% Total 520 43 8%
    • 59. CONFIDENTIAL Likelihood of Damage (%) (Return Period, 50 = 1/50 years) Loss Frequency Relating to Wind and Surge, 2013 vs. 2020s vs. 2050s Source: Swiss Re model Working with Swiss Re, the City also was able to quantify how climate change might change the monetary impacts and frequency of damaging storms ▪ Likelihood of a $19B storm (like Sandy) will grow 17% by the 2020s and 40% by the 2050s ▪ Likely loss of 1/70-year storm (like Sandy) will grow to $35B by the 2020s and $90B by the 2050s (in current dollars) 1/60 ~$90B ~$35B ~$19B 1/50 Question 2: What Could Happen in the Future? 1/70
    • 60. CONFIDENTIAL In short, even if unlikely to recur in precisely the same way, the experience of Sandy serves as a wake-up call to all New Yorkers.  Though New York has always been vulnerable to coastal flooding…  …Sandy and FEMA’s PWM maps show this vulnerability to be greater than previously understood…  …The NPCC’s work shows that not only is this vulnerability likely to grow with climate change, but that it also will involve more than just coastal storms…  …While the analysis by Swiss Re is likely to show a real cost of inaction Question 2: What Could Happen in the Future? The City must start taking steps immediately to address its long-term challenges
    • 61. CONFIDENTIAL Be ambitious, but seek achievability  Can be significantly more resilient  Aim for the stars, but do not fail to launch Create multiple defensive layers (reduce impacts, while allowing faster recovery)  First Layer: Coastal defenses (less flooding; less impact)  Second Layer: Buildings (less serious damage; faster rehabitation)  Third Layer: Infrastructure and critical systems (fewer outages; faster restoration) 3 Acknowledge resource limits, but seek to stretch resources  Maximize benefits per dollar (including non-monetary benefits, such as vulnerability of population)2 To address the risks of climate change, the Administration has developed a plan that adheres to four core principles. 1 In impacted areas, do not abandon the waterfront (rebuild and, where possible, improve)  Fight for coastal neighborhoods4 Question 3: How Should the City Address Climate Risks?
    • 62. CONFIDENTIAL The Administration’s plan focuses on both citywide and neighborhood-specific challenges. Citywide Systems and Infrastructure  Coastal Protection  Buildings  Insurance  Utilities  Liquid Fuels  Healthcare  Telecommunications  Transportation  Parks  Water and Wastewater  Food Supply  Solid Waste  Economic Recovery  Community Preparedness and Response  Environmental Protection and Remediation Question 3: How Should the City Address Climate Risks? Impacted Communities  Brooklyn-Queens Waterfront  East and South Shores of Staten Island  South Queens  Southern Brooklyn  Southern Manhattan Report contains:  Nearly 450 pages  Over 250 initiatives
    • 63. CONFIDENTIAL Effectiveness confirmed via international and US due diligence, consultations with engineering firms, hydrodynamic modeling, etc. Question 3: How Should the City Address Climate Risks? The first layer of the Administration’s plan focuses on coastal defenses, especially those that proved to be effective during Sandy or have been proven elsewhere.  Nourished beaches and dunes  Increased elevation and berms  Newer and elevated drainage systems  Wave attenuation systems  Tidal barriers along inland waterways Select Defenses That Have Proved Effective With Dune Protection – Beach 56th Street Before Sandy
    • 64. CONFIDENTIAL Question 3: How Should the City Address Climate Risks? The first layer of the Administration’s plan focuses on coastal defenses, especially those that proved to be effective during Sandy or have been proven elsewhere.  Nourished beaches and dunes  Increased elevation and berms  Newer and elevated drainage systems  Wave attenuation systems  Tidal barriers along inland waterways Select Defenses That Have Proved Effective With Dune Protection – Beach 56th Street After Sandy Effectiveness confirmed via international and US due diligence, consultations with engineering firms, hydrodynamic modeling, etc.
    • 65. CONFIDENTIAL Priority is areas with:  Highest storm surge probability  Most “floodable FAR”  Most critical infrastructure  Most vulnerable populations Coastline Risk “Heat Map” Question 3: How Should the City Address Climate Risks? The Administration’s plan calls for a first phase of coastal protection projects that is relatively affordable and focuses initially on those areas that are most vulnerable...
    • 66. CONFIDENTIAL Question 3: How Should the City Address Climate Risks? …This first phase is projected to cost about $3.7 billion and will include a mix of proven strategies, ranging from increasing coastal edge elevations…
    • 67. CONFIDENTIAL Question 3: How Should the City Address Climate Risks? …The first phase will also work to minimize the impacts that waves have on vulnerable neighborhoods…
    • 68. CONFIDENTIAL Question 3: How Should the City Address Climate Risks? …Finally, the first phase will work to minimize the impacts of “stillwater” inundation on vulnerable neighborhoods.
    • 69. CONFIDENTIAL Question 3: How Should the City Address Climate Risks? As resources are found, the Administration’s plan calls for completion of a full-build set of coastal protections that expand on and complement its first phase strategies.
    • 70. CONFIDENTIAL Implementation and Funding Implementation of the Administration’s plan will require interagency coordination, overseen by a new Director of Resiliency. Administration to seek legislation to:  Enshrine structure  Have OLTPS update plan every 4 yrs.  Have OLTPS include resiliency indicators in annual updates Director of Resiliency will report to Head of OLTPS and oversee agency coordination
    • 71. Implementation and Funding The total cost of the Administration’s plan is nearly $20 billion, much – though not all – of which will be covered by existing or likely new sources of funding… Includes:  City capital (previously allocated)  CDBG (first tranche)  Other Federal funds (e.g., USACE) Includes:  CDBG (future tranches)  FEMA Hazard Mitigation funds  Utility ratepayers Options to Fill Gap:  New Federal sources (e.g., new supplemental appropriation as per Katrina)  New City capital (up to $1B)  Other potential sources
    • 72. CONFIDENTIAL Implementation & Funding The Administration has identified nearly 60 concrete steps that it intends to take before year-end 2013 to advance its plan. Select 2013 Resiliency Milestones Identified in SIRR Report
    • 73. CONFIDENTIAL Question 3: How Should the City Address Climate Risks? Lessons of Sandy  Structural damage mainly in small, light buildings built pre- modern codes  Taller, newer and heavier buildings tended to have systems/contents damage In studying how best to protect the city’s building stock, the Administration first examined how different types of buildings fared during Sandy… 1 Floor 2 Floors 3 to 6 Floors 7 Floors or Higher Year of Construction Combust. Non- Combust. Combust. Non- Combust. Combust. Non- Combust. Combust. Non- Combust. BuildingsinSandyInundationArea Total Pre-1961 18% 3% 37% 1% 11% 1% 0% 1% Post-1961 2% 1% 16% 1% 6% 1% 0% 1% Red/DestroyedTags Pre-1961 73% 1% 16% 0% 5% 0% 0% 0% Post-1961 1% 0% 3% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% Share of Total Buildings in the Sandy Inundation Area vs. Share of Building Damage Source: DOB December Tags, DCP PLUTO
    • 74. CONFIDENTIAL  Elevation may be practical for some city buildings;  But, city has 68K buildings in 100-yr. floodplain: ̶ For 39%, elevation is impractical or infeasible (e.g., narrow lots, attached, etc.); and ̶ For others, elevation is undesirable (would destroy urban fabric) ̶ In all cases, elevation is extremely expensive  Elevation also only addresses surge, not other extreme weather Question 3: How Should the City Address Climate Risks? …Given the vulnerability of parts of New York’s building stock, the City first looked at the traditional approach to mitigation – elevation… Note: Elevation is one of few mitigation strategies for which National Flood Insurance Program offers premium discounts
    • 75. CONFIDENTIAL …Given the challenges of standard mitigation strategies, the Administration’s plan will ensure greater resiliency in a way that is tailored to the city… Strengthen existing building codes Flood  Elevation: In 100-yr. floodplain, build to FEMA flood elevation + freeboard (1-2 ft.) ̶ Post-2025, more freeboard, if sea levels rise sufficiently  Critical Systems: Improve protections Wind: Regulate ballast; explore other changes Provide zoning relief: Allow elevation without “zoning penalty” for additional height Encourage retrofits for resiliency Flood  $1.2B Incentive: For % of cost to protect key systems and, for vulnerable stock, structures ̶ % based on financial capacity ̶ Reserve for small homes, industrial bldgs., affordable housing and each borough  Mandate: Require bldgs. > 7 stories/300KSF to protect key systems by 2030 Wind Protection: Increase inspections NYCHA: Create resiliency program for damaged and undamaged buildings Recommendations are consistent with those of Building Resiliency Task Force Question 3: How Should the City Address Climate Risks? New Buildings/Post-Sandy Rebuilds Existing Buildings
    • 76. CONFIDENTIAL …The Administration’s building resiliency plan also dovetails with its proposals to address challenges associated with the National Flood Insurance Program. Question 3: How Should the City Address Climate Risks? NFIP Challenges 1. Affordability  Upcoming end to subsidies  New maps raising elevations and expanding 100-yr. floodplain 2. Low uptake  80% of residential buildings inundated by Sandy did not have NFIP coverage City Proposals 1. Premium credits for mitigation, other than elevation 2. Federal low-income subsidies 3. Lower-cost, higher-deductible policies for those not required to get NFIP coverage
    • 77. CONFIDENTIAL Question 3: How Should the City Address Climate Risks? The Administration’s plan also addresses the vulnerability of a variety of additional critical systems that serve the City. Liquid Fuels Telecommunications Parks Food Supply Healthcare Transportation Solid Waste Water and Wastewater Economic Recovery Environmental Protection and Remediation Community Preparedness and Response Utilities
    • 78. CONFIDENTIAL Sandy-Impacted Communities  Focus on areas where physical damage has lingered  Incorporate Citywide resiliency initiatives ̶ Rebuilding programs for homes and businesses  Prioritize rebuilding, but seek to address underlying challenges  Tailored to each area, including: ̶ Up to $20M “Neighborhood Game Changer Competition” Question 3: How Should the City Address Climate Risks? While focusing on Citywide systems and infrastructure, the Administration also developed plans to help Sandy-impacted areas to rebuild safer and stronger.
    • 79. CONFIDENTIAL Plan Highlights Work with USACE to study and install local storm surge barrier at Newtown Creek, and study and design barrier at Gowanus Canal Install integrated flood protection system in Red Hook Launch sales tax abatement for industrial resiliency investments and upgrade City-owned industrial properties Create and implement revitalization strategy for targeted retail and community spaces in Red Hook Houses 16 9 Question 3: How Should the City Address Climate Risks? The Administration’s plans focus on the Brooklyn-Queens Waterfront… Conceptual rendering of Newtown Creek surge barrier
    • 80. CONFIDENTIAL Plan Highlights Work with USACE to construct armored protection from Fort Wadsworth to Great Kills Launch Mid-Island Bluebelt Install revetments and wetlands for wave attenuation on South Shore Develop comprehensive revitalization plan for Great Kills Harbor Study zoning changes to promote resiliency in Midland Beach Launch “21st C. bungalow competition” for neighborhoods such as Midland, New Dorp and South Beaches Question 3: How Should the City Address Climate Risks? …And on the East and South Shores of Staten Island… Conceptual rendering of levee at South Beach
    • 81. CONFIDENTIAL Plan Highlights Develop comprehensive revitalization plans for Boardwalk, B. 116th St., B. 108th St. and Mott Ave. Work with USACE to install double dune system in Breezy Pt. and to study system for rest of Rockaway Peninsula Work with USACE to study and install wetland and wave attenuation in Howard Beach Develop a plan to address frequent tidal inundation in Broad Channel and Hamilton Beach Launch “21st C. bungalow competition” for neighborhoods such as Broad Channel and Hamilton Beach Question 3: How Should the City Address Climate Risks? …As well as South Queens… Conceptual rendering of Beach 116th Street
    • 82. CONFIDENTIAL 16 Question 3: How Should the City Address Climate Risks? …And Southern Brooklyn… Plan Highlights Develop designs for Coney Island Creek wetlands and tidal barrier with opportunities for economic development Support entertainment district expansion, including new roller coaster and Aquarium improvements Work with USACE on nourishment of Coney, Brighton and Plumb Beaches Replace destroyed Ida G. Israel hospital facility Launch “21st C. bungalow competition” for neighborhoods such as Gerritsen Beach Conceptual rendering of Coney Island Creek wetlands and tidal barrier
    • 83. CONFIDENTIAL Highlights Study multi-purpose levee to increase East Side resiliency and create mixed-use development (“Seaport City”) Install integrated flood protection system along Hospital Row, LES and Chinatown and explore installation in LM Design integrated flood protection system for remainder of Southern Manhattan Facilitate Water St. revitalization with plaza activation and enhancement and streetscape improvements Harden key utility, telecom and transit networks 2 Question 3: How Should the City Address Climate Risks? …Together with Southern Manhattan. Conceptual rendering of Lower Manhattan multi-purpose levee
    • 84. COASTAL CLIMATE RESILIENCE FREEBOARD 88 88 Photo: dland Studio
    • 85. 89 COASTAL CLIMATE RESILIENCE

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