Daily i-forex-report-9-sep-2013

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Daily i-forex-report-9-sep-2013

  1. 1. DAILY IFOREX REPORT 09th SEP 2013
  2. 2. GBP/USD 1.5578 GBP/EUR 1.1819 EUR/USD 1.3173 GBPAUD 1.7348 GBP/CAD 1.6413 GBP/CHF 1.4580 GBP/CZK 30.365 GBP/DKK 8.814 GBP/HKD 12.076 GBP/INR 104.98 GBP/JPY 155.09 GBP/NOK 9.461 GBP/NZD 1.9920 GBP/PLN 5.0356 GBP/SEK 10.283 GBP/SGD 1.9852 GBP/THB 49.94 GBP/TRY 3.175 GBP/ZAR 16.009 GBP/CNY 9.603 Foreign Exchange Daily Market Update As expected yesterday the Bank of England and the ECB both kept their base interest rates at the current level of 0.5%. There was also better than expected news from the US where the weekly jobless claims were released; the figure fell by more than expected, from 332K to 323K. Today will be a very important day for data release in the US as the change in non farm payrolls will be out. The change of the amount of people in employment for the month of August is expected to rise from 162K to 180K which could have a bearish effect on the GBPUSD rate. From the UK later we have the release of the NIESR GDP estimate which is a highly respected figure, one that can influence monetary policy. Forex Forecast: Volatility Threatens Market Stability Ahead of Fed Taper US Dollar Risks Breakdown Before the Fed’s Taper Decision Trading conditions are growing dangerous – not because a particular currency or asset classes is threatening an unfavorable turn; but rather because there are alluring technical setups that are likely to fall apart almost immediately after they trigger. That is particularly true for many of the dollar-based pairings. Euro Forecast - Huge Event Risk Didn’t Break Euro so What Will? A sharply disappointing US Nonfarm Payrolls report was supposed to be enough to send the US Dollar to fresh lows versus the Euro, but the EURUSD finished the week almost exactly where it began. What gives? British Pound Forecast - GBPUSD Preserves Bullish Trend on BoE Policy with Key Resistance Ahead The British Pound tracked higher during the first full week of September, with the GBPUSD climbing to a high of 1.5680, but the bullish trend may be coming to an end as the pair comes up against key TRADING TIPS  BUY EURUSD ABOVE 1.3190 TGT 1.3210/1.3230 SL 1.3160  SELL USDJPY BELOW 98.80 TGT 98.60/98.30 SL 99.10  BUY GBPUSD ABOVE 1.5600 TGT 1.5620/1.5650 SL 1.5570 HEADLINES
  3. 3.  HOURLY EURUSD CHARTHOURLY EURUSD CHART ANALYSIS EURUSD LOOKS UPWARD TREND: BULLISH STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS MACD =>.0003(BULLISH SIGNAL) RSI => 60(BULLISH SIGNAL)
  4. 4. HOURLY USDJPY CHART ANALYSIS USDJPY LOOKS DOWNWARD TREND: BEARISH STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE MACD =>.10(BEARISH SIGNAL) RSI =>37(BEARISH SIGNAL)
  5. 5. HOURLY GBPUSD CHART ANALYSIS GBPUSD LOOKS UPWARD TREND: BULLISH STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS MACD =>.0004(BULLISH SIGNAL) RSI =>54(BULLISH SIGNAL)
  6. 6. HOURLY EURGBP CHART ANALYSIS EURGBP LOOKS UPWARD TREND: BULLISH STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS MACD =>.0004(BULLISH SIGNAL) RSI =>52(BULLISH SIGNAL)
  7. 7. HOURLY USD INDEX CHART ANALYSIS USD INDEX LOOKS DOWNWARD TREND: BEARISH STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE MACD =>.0001(BEARISH SIGNAL) RSI =>34(BEARISH SIGNAL)
  8. 8. Date Time Currency Event Importance Actual Forecast Previous Notes Sun Sep 1 01:00 CNY Manufacturing PMI Medium 51.0 50.6 50.3 22:45 NZD Terms of Trade Index (QoQ) (2Q) Medium 4.9% 3.8% 4.2% 23:01 GBP Hometrack Housing Survey (MoM) (AUG) Low 0.4% 0.3% 23:01 GBP Hometrack Housing Survey (YoY) (AUG) Low 1.8% 1.3% 23:30 AUD AiG Performance of Manufacturing Index (AUG) Medium 46.4 42.0 23:50 JPY Capital Spending (2Q) Medium 0.0% -2.1% -3.9% 23:50 JPY Capital Spending excl Software (2Q) Medium 1.4% -3.8% -5.2% 23:50 JPY Company Profits (2Q) Low 24.0% 6.0% 23:50 JPY Company Sales (2Q) Low -0.5% -5.8% Mon Sep 2 00:00 AUD RPData/Rismark House Px (AUG) Low 0.5% 1.6% 00:30 AUD TD Securities Inflation (MoM) (AUG) Low 0.1% 0.5% 00:30 AUD TD Securities Inflation (YoY) (AUG) Low 2.1% 2.7% 01:30 AUD Building Approvals (MoM) (JUL) Low 10.8% 4.0% -6.3% 01:30 AUD Building Approvals (YoY) (JUL) Low 28.3% 20.0% -11.8% 01:30 AUD Company Operating Profit (QoQ) (2Q) Low -0.8% 0.9% 3.5% 01:30 AUD Inventories (2Q) Low 0.2% 0.1% -0.5% 01:45 CNY HSBC/Markit Manufacturing PMI (AUG) Medium 50.1 50.2 47.7 05:00 JPY Vehicle Sales (YoY) (AUG) Low -6.4% -13.5% 06:30 AUD RBA Commodity Index (AUG) Low 94.3 91.8 06:30 AUD RBA Commodity Index SDR (YoY) (AUG) Low -7.3% 9.7% 07:30 CHF PMI Manufacturing (AUG) Low 54.6 56.0 57.4 07:45 EUR Italian Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (AUG) Low 51.3 50.8 50.4 ECONOMIC CALLENDER
  9. 9. 07:50 EUR French Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (AUG F) Low 49.7 49.7 49.7 07:55 EUR German Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (AUG F) Medium 51.8 52.0 52.0 08:00 EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (AUG F) Medium 51.4 51.3 51.3 08:30 GBP BoE Publishes Data on Funding for Lending Medium 08:30 GBP Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (AUG) Medium 57.2 55.0 54.8 09:00 EUR Schaeuble Briefs on Greek Aid Package 3 Medium 11:20 EUR ECB's Coeure Speaks in Berlin on OMT Proram Low 11:30 GBP BoE Governor Mark Carney Press Briefing Before G20 Summit Medium 23:01 GBP BRC Sales Like- For-Like (YoY) (AUG) Low 2.4% 2.2% 23:50 JPY Monetary Base (YoY) (AUG) Medium 38% 23:50 JPY Monetary Base End of period (AUG) Low ¥173.3T Tue Sep 3 GBP Halifax House Price (3MoY) (AUG) Low 5.6% 4.6% GBP Halifax Plc House Prices s.a. (MoM) (AUG) Low 0.8% 0.9% 01:00 CNY Non- manufacturing PMI (AUG) Medium 54.1 01:00 NZD ANZ Commodity Price (AUG) Low 0.6% 01:30 AUD Current Account Balance (Australian Dollar) (2Q) Medium -8.5B -8.5B 01:30 AUD Retail Sales s.a. (MoM) (JUL) Medium 0.4% 0.0% 01:30 AUD Net Exports of GDP (2Q) Low 0.1 1 01:30 JPY Labor Cash Earnings (YoY) (JUL) Low 0.6% 04:30 LIVE AUD Reserve Bank of Australia Rate Decision (SEP 3) High 2.5% 2.5% 05:45 CHF Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (2Q) High 1.7% 1.2% 05:45 CHF Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (2Q) Medium 0.3% 0.6% 08:30 GBP Purchasing Manager Index Construction (AUG) Medium 56.9 57.0
  10. 10. 09:00 EUR Euro-Zone Producer Price Index (MoM) (JUL) Low 0.1% 0.0% 09:00 EUR Euro-Zone Producer Price Index (YoY) (JUL) Low 0.1% 0.3% 12:58 USD Markit US PMI Final (AUG) Medium 54.0 14:00 USD ISM Manufacturing (AUG) High 54 55.4 14:00 USD Construction Spending (MoM) (JUL) Medium 0.3% -0.6% 14:00 USD ISM Prices Paid (AUG) Medium 51.2 49 14:00 USD IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (SEP) Low 46 45.1 21:00 USD EIA Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (2Q) Low 22:45 NZD Value of All Buildings s.a. (QoQ) (AUG) Low 5.8% 23:01 GBP BRC Shop Price Index (YoY) (AUG) Low -0.5% 23:30 AUD AiG Performance of Service Index (AUG) Medium 39.4 Wed Sep 4 01:30 LIVE AUD Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (2Q) High 0.6% 0.6% 01:30 LIVE AUD Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (2Q) High 2.5% 2.5% 01:45 CNY HSBC/Markit Services PMI (AUG) Medium 51.3 07:45 EUR Italian Purchasing Manager Index Services (AUG) Low 48.7 07:50 EUR French Purchasing Manager Index Services (AUG F) Low 47.7 47.7 07:55 EUR German Purchasing Manager Index Services (AUG F) Medium 52.4 52.4 08:00 EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Composite (AUG F) Medium 51.7 51.7 08:00 EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Services (AUG F) Medium 51 51 08:30 GBP Purchasing Manager Index Services (AUG) Medium 59 60.2 08:30 GBP Official Reserves (Changes) (AUG) Low $1672M 09:00 EUR Euro-Zone Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ) (2Q P) High 0.3% 0.3% 09:00 EUR Euro-Zone Gross Domestic Product s.a. (YoY) (2Q P) High -0.7% -0.7% 09:00 EUR Euro-Zone Retail Sales (YoY) (JUL) Medium -0.3% -0.9%
  11. 11. 09:00 EUR Euro-Zone Government Expenditure (QoQ) (2Q P) Low -0.1% 09:00 EUR Euro-Zone Gross Fixed Capital (QoQ) (2Q P) Low -1.6% 09:00 EUR Euro-Zone Household Consumption (QoQ) (2Q P) Low 0.1% 09:00 EUR Euro-Zone Retail Sales (MoM) (JUL) Low 0.4% -0.5% 11:00 USD MBA Mortgage Applications (AUG 30) Low -2.5% 11:30 USD Challenger Job Cuts (YoY) (AUG) Low 2.3% 12:30 USD Trade Balance (JUL) Medium -$38.6B -$34.2B 12:30 CAD International Merchandise Trade (Canadian dollar) (JUL) Low -0.40B -0.47B 13:45 USD ISM New York (AUG) Low 67.8 14:00 CAD Bank of Canada Rate Decision (SEP 4) High 1.00% 1.00% 16:30 USD Fed's Williams Speaks on Monetary Policy in Oregon Low 18:00 USD US Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book High 21:00 USD Domestic Vehicle Sales (AUG) Low 12.20M 12.09M 21:00 USD Total Vehicle Sales (AUG) Low 15.80M 15.60M Thu Sep 5 JPY BOJ 2014 Monetary Base Target (SEP 5) High ¥270T JPY Bank of Japan Rate Decision (SEP 5) High 00:00 USD Fed's Kocherlakota Speaks in Wisconsin Low 01:30 AUD Trade Balance (Australian dollar) (JUL) Medium 100M 602M 10:00 EUR German Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) (JUL) Medium 2.7% 4.3% 10:00 EUR German Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) (JUL) Low -1.0% 3.8% 11:00 LIVE GBP Bank of England Rate Decision (SEP 5) High 0.5% 0.5% 11:00 LIVE GBP BoE Asset Purchase Target (SEP) High 375B 375B 11:45 LIVE EUR European Central Bank Rate Decision (SEP 5) High 0.5% 0.5% 11:45 LIVE EUR ECB Deposit Facility Rate (SEP 5) Medium 0.0% 0.0%
  12. 12. 12:15 USD ADP Employment Change (AUG) Medium 180K 200K 12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims (AUG 31) Medium 330K 331K 12:30 USD Continuing Claims (AUG 24) Low 2989K 12:30 USD Non-Farm Productivity (2Q F) Low 1.5% 0.9% 12:30 USD Unit Labor Costs (2Q F) Low 1.0% 1.4% 13:00 USD Fed's Kocherlakota Speaks in Wisconsin Low 14:00 USD Factory Orders (JUL) Medium -3.50% 1.50% 14:00 USD ISM Non- Manufacutring Composite (AUG) Medium 55 56 15:00 USD DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (AUG 30) Low 2986K 15:00 USD DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory (AUG 30) Low -316K 15:00 USD DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories (AUG 30) Low -587K 23:30 AUD AiG Performance of Construction Index (AUG) Medium 44.1 23:50 JPY Official Reserve Assets (AUG) Low $1254.0B Fri Sep 6 GBP New Car Registrations (YoY) (AUG) Low 12.7% 05:00 JPY Bank of Japan's Monthly Economic Report for September Medium 05:00 JPY Coincident Index (JUL P) Medium 106.9 105.5 05:00 JPY Leading Index (JUL P) Medium 107.9 107.2 06:00 EUR German Trade Balance (euros) (JUL) Medium 16.3B 16.9B 06:00 EUR German Current Account (euros) (JUL) Low 14.0B 17.3B 06:00 EUR German Exports s.a. (MoM) (JUL) Low 0.8% 0.6% 06:00 EUR German Imports s.a. (MoM) (JUL) Low 0.7% -0.8% 06:00 EUR German Labor Costs s.a. (QoQ) (2Q) Low 1.1% 06:00 EUR German Labor Costs w.d.a. (YoY) (2Q) Low 3.9% 06:30 AUD Foreign Reserves (Australian dollar) (AUG) Low A$55.5B
  13. 13. 07:00 CHF Foreign Currency Reserves (AUG) Low 434.9B 07:15 CHF CPI EU Harmonized (YoY) (AUG) Medium 0.5% 07:15 CHF Consumer Price Index (YoY) (AUG) Medium 0.0% 0.0% 07:15 CHF Industrial Production (YoY) (2Q) Medium 3.0% 07:15 CHF CPI EU Harmonized (MoM) (AUG) Low 0.0% 07:15 CHF Consumer Price Index (MoM) (AUG) Low 0.0% -0.4% 08:30 GBP BoE/GfK Inflation Next 12 Mths (AUG) Medium 3.6% 08:30 GBP Industrial Production (YoY) (JUL) Medium -1.7% 1.2% 08:30 GBP Manufacturing Production (YoY) (JUL) Medium -0.7% 2.0% 08:30 GBP Total Trade Balance (Pounds) (JUL) Medium -£1700 -£1548 08:30 GBP Industrial Production (MoM) (JUL) Low 0.0% 1.1% 08:30 GBP Manufacturing Production (MoM) (JUL) Low 0.3% 1.9% 08:30 GBP Trade Balance Non EU (Pounds) (JUL) Low -£2950 -£2646 08:30 GBP Visible Trade Balance (Pounds) (JUL) Low -£8200 -£8082 10:00 EUR German Industrial Production n.s.a. and w.d.a. (YoY) (JUL) Medium 0.6% 2.0% 10:00 EUR German Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) (JUL) Low -0.5% 2.4% 12:00 USD Fed's Evans Speaks in South Carolina Low 12:30 CAD Net Change in Employment (AUG) High 30.0K -39.4K 12:30 CAD Unemployment Rate (AUG) High 7.2% 7.2% 12:30 LIVE USD Change in Non- farm Payrolls (AUG) High 180K 162K 12:30 LIVE USD Unemployment Rate (AUG) High 7.4% 7.4% 12:30 CAD Full Time Employment Change (AUG) Medium -18.3 12:30 USD Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (AUG) Medium 2.0% 1.9% 12:30 USD Change in Private Payrolls (AUG) Medium 175K 161K
  14. 14. 12:30 USD Labor Force Participation Rate (AUG) Medium 63.4% 12:30 USD Underemployment Rate (AUG) Medium 14.0% 12:30 CAD Part Time Employment Change (AUG) Low -21.2 12:30 CAD Participation Rate (AUG) Low 66.5 12:30 USD Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (AUG) Low 0.2% -0.1% 12:30 USD Average Weekly Hours All Employees (AUG) Low 34.5 34.4 12:30 USD Change in Household Employment (AUG) Low 227K 12:30 USD Change in Manufacturing Payrolls (AUG) Low 5K 6K 12:30 USD Two-Month Payroll Net Revision (AUG) Low 14:00 GBP NIESR Gross Domestic Product Estimate (AUG) High 0.7% 14:00 CAD Ivey Purchasing Managers Index s.a. (AUG) Medium 54 48.4 17:30 USD Fed's George Speaks on the Economy in Nebraska Low
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