Paul - Potential for and Consequences of Nonattainment


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  • Some of these were wrong in the original table
  • 2009-2011 daily PM2.5 design values calculated with data through September 30, 2011. Design values are preliminary and subject to change. Data since July has not yet been finalized.A monitoring location meets the daily fine particulate NAAQS if the three-year average of each annual 98th percentile 24-hr fine particle concentration does not exceed 35 µg/m3. Dark bars are locations with 1 in 3 day sampling, light bars sample daily. Value of the bars is the “best case” design value for the year, which assumes that as more data is collected the 98th percentile value will not increase. For 1 in 3 day sampling this is the 3rd highest value recorded in a year and for daily sampling this is the 7th highest value in the year (the 8th high is used if uptime is better than 95% for the year). The asterisk on the chart uses the highest concentration recorded in to calculate the 3-year design value. The end of year design value will remain below the level denoted by the asterisk if 2 or fewer samples exceed the highest concentration recorded in the first quarter for 1 in 3 day sampling locations OR 6-or fewer samples for daily sampling.
  • Minnesota has never had nonattainment issues for ozone and PM2.5, though states just east of us (Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan) have. As the standards are revised and get lower, nonattainment creeps westward.
  • So, what the source categories impacting urban emissions? The 2 largest source categories are vehicles and area sources. The large industrial sources are largely well controlled and on the basis of mass of pollutants emitted annually, large industrial sources generally contribute less than 20% of urban air emissions.Pollutants transported in from other regions of the country can also be an issue; however, Minnesota’s worst air days are those with stagnant air and little or no transport from other regionsHigh ozone concentrations usually occur downwind from the sources (primarily NOx and VOCs)
  • This slide just goes on to list what we mean when we talk about mobile and area sources.Now I’m going to move on to talk about the changes in specific NAAQS, and where our areas of concern are.
  • Paul - Potential for and Consequences of Nonattainment

    1. 1. Potential for and Consequences of NonattainmentJohn A. PaulRAPCA AdministratorMinnesota’s Clean Air DialogueApril 18, 2012 1
    2. 2. What I Will Talk About Very brief background RAPCA Clean Air Act responsibilities National Ambient Air Quality Standards History of ozone and particulate matter standards and where these are headed Consequences of nonattainment Ozone advance program 2
    3. 3. Background on RAPCA Regional Air Pollution Control Agency Six-county local agency—Dayton, Ohio  Agency roots from the 1950’s under the City  Health Department authority—Direct grant from USEPA and annual contract with Ohio EPA  One of nine local agencies in Ohio History of nonattainment for ozone and particulate matter and currently borderline air quality for both 3
    4. 4. Clean Air Act Responsibilities Section 109 specifies EPA’s responsibility for prescribing National Ambient Air Quality Standards ―requisite to protect public health‖ Section 107 specifies the states responsibility for assuring air quality standards are achieved and maintained 4
    5. 5. CLEAN AIR ACTFINDINGS AND PURPOSESSEC. 101. (a) The Congress finds-- (3) that air pollution prevention (that is, the reduction or elimination, through any measures, of the amount of pollutants produced or created at the source) and air pollution control at its source is the primary responsibility of States and local governments; and (4) that Federal financial assistance and leadership is essential for the development of cooperative Federal, State, regional, and local programs to prevent and control air pollution. 5
    6. 6. National Ambient Air Quality Standards USEPA has promulgated NAAQS for ozone, particulate matter, SO2, NO2, CO, and Lead NAAQS are reviewed every five years and revised as appropriate  Most recent health studies  Better monitoring techniques Clean Air Science Advisory Committee reviews data and makes recommendations to the Administrator 6
    7. 7. Revising Standards U.S. EPA has been busy revising standards:  2006: 24-hr PM2.5 NO2  2008: Lead SO2  2010: NO2, SO2 Ozone PM2.5  2008-2011: Ozone  2011: CO More to come:  2012: PM2.5  2013-2014: Ozone 7
    8. 8. Ozone Air Quality StandardTimeline Level (ppm) MeasurementRevision of New Standard 0.060 -0.070 Average of fourth highestprobable in 2014 concentration measured over a three year periodNew Standard 0.075Old standard 0.084Old, Old standard 0.125 Not to be exceeded more than four times in a three year period 8
    9. 9. PM2.5 Air Quality Standard• Annual standard – 15 ug/m3, averaged over a three year period• 24-hour standard- 35 ug/m3• Anticipate revised standard proposed in 2012 and finalized in 2013. Annual standard could be lowered to 11-12 ug/m3 9
    10. 10. 10
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    13. 13. Ozone Standard of 70 ppb based on2008-2010 Data 13
    14. 14. Ozone Standard of 65 ppb based on2008-2010 Data 14
    15. 15. Ozone Standard of 60 ppb based on2008-2010 Data 15
    16. 16. Ozone NAAQS: Minnesota Preliminary Ozone NAAQS Design Values, 2009-2011 80 70 65 63 63 62 63 62 60 61 61 60 60 58 59 58 60 54 49 Concentration (ppb) 50 40 30 20 10 0 2009-2011* NAAQS Includes all data through 2011 ozone season, but July – October data is preliminary
    17. 17. Daily PM2.5 NAAQS Design Values 2008-2010 40 37 36 35 31 31 31 30 29 29 26 PM2.5 Concentration (µg/m3) 25 22 21 20 17 15 10 5 0
    18. 18. Estimated Daily PM2.5 NAAQS Design Values 2009- 2011* 40 35 33.7 32.9 30 30.5 29.6 29.2 31.1 Concentration (µg/m 3) 25 27.9 26.7 24.3 20 21.1 19.3 15 16.5 10 Dark blue: 1:3 day sampling 5 2 high values to reach max Light Blue: Daily Sampling 6 high values to reach max 0 98th Percentile Max observed NAAQS * Through September 30, 2011. Preliminary and subject to change.
    19. 19. Trends in Ozone and PM2.5 Trends in Key Air Pollutants in the Twin Cities Metro Area:1999-2009 110 100 90Percent of Standard 80 70 60 50 40 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Standard O3 PM2.5 - A PM2.5 - D
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    21. 21. Requirements for Ozone Areas - CAAA Extreme Severe Serious Traffic controls during congested periods Clean fuels requirement for boilers (plan in 3 years) No waivers from 15% or 3% reduction requirements Requirement for fee on major sources if fail to attain Measures to offset VMT growth (108(f) measures) due in 2 yrs Contingency measures if miss milestone Specific NSR requirements for modifications to existing sources Moderate VMT demonstration due in 6 years (TCM program if needed) Clean fuel program due in 4 years (if applicable) Enhanced I/M due in 2 years Plan for 3% annual average reductions due in 4 yearsMarginal Demonstration of attainment in 4 years Basic I/M (if not already required) due immediately Stage II gasoline vapor recovery due in 2 years RACT: Existing & future CTG’s & RACT on major sources (existing due in 2 years) Plan for 15% VOC reduction within 6 years is due in 3 years New Source Review (NSR) program due 2 years (corrections to existing, also) RACT corrections due in 6 months; I/M corrections, immediatelyEmission inventory due in 2 yrs; requirements for emission statements due in 2 yrs; periodic inventories 21
    22. 22. Requirements for Ozone Areas - CAAA Requirements for all nonattainment areas  Nonattainment New Source Review  Emissions offsets  Lowest Achievable Control Technology Additional requirements for moderate nonattainment areas are the ones you really want to avoid  Inspection/maintenance of vehicles  15% reduction in inventory  Stage 2 vapor recovery at gasoline dispensing stations 22
    23. 23. Sources of Urban Air Pollution Mobile Sources (Vehicles)  On road  Off road  Small engines Small stationary sources  Residential burning  Small commercial/Industrial Large stationary sources
    24. 24. What are area and Mobile Sources?
    25. 25. National Control Measures National Control of EGUs  CAIR or CSAPR or replacement  Mercury and Air Toxics Standards  GHG NSPS National Control of LDVs  Tier 3 standards  Sulfur in fuel reductions 25
    26. 26. Avoiding Nonattainment Support national control measures Encourage multi-pollutant controls, especially on new sources Incentivize replacement/renewal projects that increase efficiency and reduce air pollution Participate in USEPA’s Ozone Advance program 26
    27. 27. Ozone Advance Program Ozone Advance is a collaborative effort by EPA, states, tribes, and local communities to encourage emission reductions in ozone attainment areas, to help them continue to meet the National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS). Program Goals:  Help attainment areas take action in order to keep ozone levels below the level of the standard to ensure continued health protection,  Better position areas to remain in attainment,  Efficiently direct available resources toward actions to address ozone problems quickly. 27
    28. 28. Ozone Advance State, tribal, and/or local governments can participate in Ozone Advance if they meet the basic program eligibility criteria:  The area(s) with respect to which the state, tribe, and/or local government is signing up is/are not designated nonattainment for either the 1997 8-hour or the 2008 ozone NAAQS.  The state, tribe, and/or local government must generally identify the area(s) with respect to which they are signing up.  Where possible, states, tribes, and/or local governments should identify and be able to report on the air monitor(s) that reflect the air quality in the area(s).  Required emissions inventory reporting must have occurred prior to participation in Ozone Advance. 28
    29. 29. Ozone Advance Ozone Advance promotes local actions to reduce ozone precursors in attainment areas to help these areas continue to maintain the ozone NAAQS. The program encourages states, tribes, and local governments to take proactive steps to keep their air clean. To apply for participation in Ozone Advance, an area should submit a brief sign-up letter. This letter should express the areas willingness to coordinate with EPA, state, tribal and/or local stakeholders and to quickly implement measures to reduce ozone. Each of the program eligibility criteria should be addressed. Specific measures do not need to be identified in the letter of intent, although if the applicant would like to highlight any existing measures and programs, they are welcome to do so. The letter should be signed by the appropriate state, tribal and/or local officials with the authority to implement the program and assist in leveraging staff and program funds as needed. 29
    30. 30. Ozone Advance EPA website:  Basic Information  Eligibility  Participation  Ozone Flex  Resources  Frequent Questions 30
    31. 31. Questions? 31