Science Seminar Series 3 Wayne Meyer

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Professor Wayne Meyer presents his vision of Landscape Futures with his engaging and informative seminar entitled “What future for Landscape Futures? Climate, soil, water, biota, economics & people – …

Professor Wayne Meyer presents his vision of Landscape Futures with his engaging and informative seminar entitled “What future for Landscape Futures? Climate, soil, water, biota, economics & people – researching complexity”.

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  • 1. Environment Institute Science Seminar Series 2009 April 6 2009 The future of landscapes futures? Climate, soil, water, biota, economics and people - research complexity Presented by: Professor Wayne Meyer, University of Adelaide 10 December 2008 Copyright © 2008 The University of Adelaide & Wayne Meyer 1
  • 2. What future for Landscape Futures? • Context for integrated landscape science in SA • Developing awareness of the need for science research capability and engagement to improve NRM • Should UA be involved in this research? • What is Landscape Futures analysis? • What research? • What opportunities? • Where to next? 10 December 2008 Copyright © 2008 The University of Adelaide & Wayne Meyer 2
  • 3. The challenges in current NRM: • Despite good NRM legislation the condition of resources continues to persistently decline. • SA EPA State of Environment Report 2008 Atmospheric emissions increased 28% since 1990 o River conditions poor and stable, Murray floodplain health declining o Seagrass area declining, coastal sprawl increasing o Peri-urban area increasing, land use intensity increasing, acid soils o increasing Number of vulnerable species increasing, rabbits and camels o increasing, invasive species (olives, silverleaf nightshade) increasing Population growth rate increasing, more cars, more road freight o Renewable energy sources increasing, reuse of waste-water o increasing 10 December 2008 Copyright © 2008 The University of Adelaide & Wayne Meyer 3
  • 4. The Australian Government scene • Australian Government NRM Team from DEWHA & DAFF • “focus is on protecting our environment and natural resources, and sustaining our agricultural industries and regional communities.” • Caring for our Country • Six national priority areas: a national reserve system, o biodiversity and natural icons, o coastal environments and critical aquatic habitats, o sustainable farm practices, o natural resource management in remote and northern Australia, and o community skills, knowledge and engagement. o • Funding $2.25 billion in funding over five years from 1 July 2008 to June 2013 o Regional NRM organisations will be supported by $636 million as o secure base-level funding 10 December 2008 Copyright © 2008 The University of Adelaide & Wayne Meyer 4
  • 5. NRM in Australia Comparison of regional NRM bodies between Australian States State Title Statutory Legal Key (number) status responsibility state agency 56 NRM regions Property Vegetation Plans NSW CMA Statutory DNR in Australia under the (13) Native Vegetation Act 2003 Beds, bank and floodplain of Vic CMA Statutory DSE river and the Catchment and (10) Land Protection Act 1994 WA Regional NRM Non - N/A DAF or Catchment statutory Councils (6) SA Regional Statutory NRM Act water allocation DWLBC planning and ensuring NRM Boards compliance for soil (8) conservation, pest plants and animals and biodiversity QLD Regional Non - N/A DNRW committees, statutory groups, assoc‟s (14) Develop and implement Tas Regional NRM Statutory- DPIW regional strategies Committees(3) limited Table from Pannell et al. 2007 10 December 2008 Copyright © 2008 The University of Adelaide & Wayne Meyer 5
  • 6. The SA state scene • State Strategic Plan • “Attaining sustainability” • Grand science plan STI10– “Constellation SA” with Alliances, Clusters and Precincts • SA Natural Resources Management Act 2004 • Natural Resource Management Council • 8 NRM regions with Boards • State NRM Plan of 2006 • Landscape scale management …adaptive to climate change • Prosperous communities …within ecologically sustainable limits • .. Capability…to manage natural resources in an integrated way • Integrated management of biological threats • Regional NRM Board • “A healthy living landscape meeting the social, environmental and economic needs of the community and ensuring the wellbeing of future generations” • Budget ’08/09 - $78m (0.12% gross state product) 10 December 2008 Copyright © 2008 The University of Adelaide & Wayne Meyer 6
  • 7. The SA NRM scene – operations and research • SA Natural Resources Management Act 2004 • Commonwealth NRM through DEWHA, DAFF • DWLBC (DEH, PIRSA, EPA) • Natural Resource Management Council – STI Plan (2008) • 8 NRM regions with Boards • Research Providers • Commonwealth – CSIRO, BRS, … • SA – DWLBC, DEH, SARDI • Universities – UA, FU, UniSA, CSU, UQ • Research Funders • Research providers • Research & Development Corporations (RDC‟s) • Regional NRM Boards / State agencies • Bilateral Federal agreements NHT, NAP, Caring for our Country • Research Facilitators • NRM RA 10 December 2008 Copyright © 2008 The University of Adelaide & Wayne Meyer 7
  • 8. The challenges in current NRM: • The problem for SA regional NRM management: • Government agency controlled with restrained leadership • limited resources • multiple demands • an uncertain and changing future • ad hoc prioritisation processes • inconsistent monitoring with limited evidence that they are actually making a difference. 10 December 2008 Copyright © 2008 The University of Adelaide & Wayne Meyer 8
  • 9. Regional NRM – operating in the triple bottom line domain Natural resources Human & social „environment‟ capital • Atmosphere Regional actions Institutions variability and change Vegetation management oClimate • Soils Community viability Endangered species protection • Water Jobs Ecological restoration Resource condition monitoring oquantity oquality Conservation farming • Biota Deep rooted perennials Biomass Bio-fuels Economics and Integrated Landscape finances Science Regional economics Input/output analysis Primary production and flow on Adapted from Wayne Meyer 12/07 10 December 2008 Copyright © 2008 The University of Adelaide & Wayne Meyer 9
  • 10. Landscape science developing in SA • Mar07 - Concept: SA develops an internationally recognised Integrated Landscape Science and Education capability • Landscape Science Cluster formed – • Jul07 - Landscape Science Cluster developed a case for “integrated landscape science” – develop research and outreach capability that • Focuses on an NRM region and works with the implementers • Uses models within GIS layers to project possible change in space and time • Develops new engagement methods to change what people do and how they visualise their future landscapes 10 December 2008 Copyright © 2008 The University of Adelaide & Wayne Meyer 10
  • 11. Landscape Science Cluster - builds on experience and capacity of Lower Murray Landscape Futures project • Vision • …. bring new knowledge to the conservation and management of our regional landscapes. • Mission • Gather quality data and analyse landscape systems • Improve processes of using evidence-based decision making, and • educate and train people to apply landscape system models • Key agencies • CSIRO, SA DEH, DWLBC, SARDI, SA Regional NRM Boards, Universities: Adelaide, Flinders, SA 6 April 2009 Copyright © 2008 The University of Adelaide & Wayne Meyer 11
  • 12. University of Adelaide response • 2006 – 07, Sciences/EES positions: • Climate Change, • Water, • Natural Resources Science, • Plant Conservation • Jul 07 - Nov 07 • Briefings to Deans on NRM and environment research opportunities • Feb 08 – Consultancy report to DVC – R “Developing a Prospectus for Research into Natural Resource Management University of Adelaide, S A” 10 December 2008 Copyright © 2008 The University of Adelaide & Wayne Meyer 12
  • 13. Why should UA be involved in this research? • “The community has moved from dealing with single issues in the landscape to requiring an understanding of how those issues impact on each other… • “Nationally there is significant resourcing available … • “the policy expectation is that these investments are based on the best science available. • “Many of the funding bodies are seeking large collaborative projects moving away from the individual projects supported in the past. [From Consultancy report to DVC-R. “Developing a Prospectus for Research into Natural Resource Management University of Adelaide, S A”] • Nov 07 onwards – repositioning research profile through “institutes”, “centres” and “programs” • increase the opportunity for multi-disciplinary research • Present a more consistent message to potential funders of a “research intensive university” 10 December 2008 Copyright © 2008 The University of Adelaide & Wayne Meyer 13
  • 14. University of Adelaide – positioning our research Climate change and adaptation Landscape Futures Aust. Centre Marine Ancient DNA Biology Water Research Energy Centre Technology Wayne Meyer 12/07 Modified 12/08 10 December 2008 Copyright © 2008 The University of Adelaide & Wayne Meyer 14
  • 15. Landscape Futures Program Vision • … high performing team of researchers and communicators • …. bring new knowledge to the conservation and management of our regional landscapes • …. will be renowned for “landscape futures analysis” 10 December 2008 Copyright © 2008 The University of Adelaide & Wayne Meyer 15
  • 16. What is “Landscape Futures analysis”? Example regional NRM targets • Sustain profitability • Decrease wind erosion • Decrease deep drainage by changing crops and vegetation to better use rainfall • Conserve remnant vegetation and biodiversity Landscape Futures analysis Determine the combination of land uses and maintenance actions (space and time) that will be economically feasible and socially acceptable 10 December 2008 Copyright © 2008 The University of Adelaide & Wayne Meyer 16
  • 17. An example Landscape Futures analysis 10 December 2008 Copyright © 2008 The University of Adelaide & Wayne Meyer 17
  • 18. Environment, dollars and people in a regional system 10 December 2008 Copyright © 2008 The University of Adelaide & Wayne Meyer 18
  • 19. Least cost Best for biodiversity More perennials More targeted restoration Scattered minimum till Cost: Cost: -12.5% of agricultural GRP -1.2% of agricultural GRP -1.1% of total GRP -0.1% of total GRP 10 December 2008 Copyright © 2008 The University of Adelaide & Wayne Meyer 19
  • 20. What does this analysis tell us? • Some targets are poorly conceived and/or are not feasible • There are many options to achieve targets – costs vary • Some management actions taken now will not perform well with changed climate conditions • NRM decisions can dramatically change what the landscape looks like and how well it functions. These decisions have a greater effect than climate change How can developing a Landscape Futures analysis be used? • Community engagement and consultation • Collate and identify regional information • Clarify target actions • Provide evidence for and help prioritise management actions • Retain information to assess the worth of previous actions • Assist monitoring and demonstrate improvement and value for money 10 December 2008 Copyright © 2008 The University of Adelaide & Wayne Meyer 20
  • 21. What is “Landscape Futures analysis”? • Identify region and establish regional priorities – consult • Test feasibility of “targets” • Gather bio-physical and socio-economic data – discover • Establish possible futures – consult and guess • Run models – calibrate and test • Set up multi-objective optimisation and look for feasible options • Present and explain - interact 10 December 2008 Copyright © 2008 The University of Adelaide & Wayne Meyer 21
  • 22. Example: regional data centres 10 December 2008 Copyright © 2008 The University of Adelaide & Wayne Meyer 22
  • 23. Example model estimation for yield, dry matter, deep drainage and wind erosion risk 10 December 2008 Copyright © 2008 The University of Adelaide & Wayne Meyer 23
  • 24. Data and process descriptions needed • Climate data • Soils data • • Texture (particle size) Daily solar irradiance • PAWC Tmax , Tmin , Tdew o • Ks (macropore) o Rain Limiting drainage rate • o Wind run (2m height) • Effective soil depth • Depth to water table • Depth to piezometric head Point water balance Ra + I + U ± S - D - Ro - Et = 0 10 December 2008 Copyright © 2008 The University of Adelaide & Wayne Meyer 24
  • 25. Data and process descriptions needed • Crop data • Vegetation data • • Type and distribution Type and variety • • Canopy and condition Sowing date • • Ecosystem “value” Agronomy • Input costs and output returns Modelled dry matter accumulation and yield Response to environmental stresses Succession dynamics 10 December 2008 Copyright © 2008 The University of Adelaide & Wayne Meyer 25
  • 26. Example model estimation of biomass for carbon market 10 December 2008 Copyright © 2008 The University of Adelaide & Wayne Meyer 26
  • 27. Example model estimation of habitat and conservation distribution 10 December 2008 Copyright © 2008 The University of Adelaide & Wayne Meyer 27
  • 28. LOWER MURRAY LANDSCAPE FUTURES http://www.landscapefutures.com.au/ 28
  • 29. Research to make a difference! • Pulling it all together • Suitable multi-objective optimization • Representation / visualization of different landscapes • System component representations/models • Identifying biodiversity needs e.g. assigning eco-system minimum and optimum requirements • Incorporating community preferences • Vegetation, crops, soils • Assigning Et to variable vegetation under variable conditions • Assigning runoff v‟s ponding v‟s infiltration 10 December 2008 Copyright © 2008 The University of Adelaide & Wayne Meyer 29
  • 30. What resources? Title/fund Date submitted Amount sought $ Status NCRIS TERN* EOI: May2007 $20.1m (2.5 yrs) Officially approved Contracts pending Round 2: Jun2008 $7.75m Final: 25Aug2008 DAFF Australia’s Farming Future* Aug 2008 $849k (3 yrs) Pending Premiers Science and Research Oct 2008 (2nd rd) $1.26m (3 yrs) Contract being signed Fund* UA Environment Institute Nov 2008 $102k (4 yrs) Operating 10 December 2008 Copyright © 2008 The University of Adelaide & Wayne Meyer 30
  • 31. Landscape Futures Program Research foci: • Improve and verify the modelling processes • Identify the economic and community consequences (jobs and services) of changing land use • Test methods that monitor regional resource condition relative to plans and actions • Use animation and visualisation technology to communicate regional landscape futures 10 December 2008 Copyright © 2008 The University of Adelaide & Wayne Meyer 31
  • 32. Landscape Futures Program Education and training foci: • Graduate, postgraduate and professional development • Revamp course with greater technological („whiz-bang‟) and numerical content • Market survey for coursework (grad dip, Masters) • MBA (Business of NRM) 10 December 2008 Copyright © 2008 The University of Adelaide & Wayne Meyer 32
  • 33. Environment Institute Landscape Futures Program Interested in making a difference? - contact Wayne Meyer 10 December 2008 Copyright © 2008 The University of Adelaide & Wayne Meyer 33
  • 34. Place & Purpose 2009 Applying landscape science to Natural Resource Management 30 September – 1 October 2009 Adelaide Convention Centre A Symposium of the Spatial Sciences Institute Biennial International Conference Spatial Science Conference http://www.ssc2009.com/ 10 December 2008 Copyright © 2008 The University of Adelaide & Wayne Meyer 34
  • 35. Environment Institute Science Seminar Series 2009 April 20 2009 A New Taxonomy International breakthroughs in internet and database technology for taxonomic research Presented by: Professor Norm Johnson, Ohio State University Energy2009 S.F. Lincoln 35