Science Seminar Series 11 Camille Mellin

Environment Institute Science Seminar Series 2009 Predicting coral reef biodiversity patterns for conservation: A confederacy of ecological scales Presented by: Doctor Camille Mellin

Photo: CSIRO Predicting coral reef biodiversity patterns for conservation: A confederacy of ecological scales camille.mellin@adelaide.edu.au Camille MELLIN http://www.adelaide.edu.au/directory/camille.mellin

Outline 1 Coral reefs: a unique and fragile biodiversity 2 Spatial and temporal scales of population connectivity 3 Predicted impact of climate change 4 Species distribution models: a promising tool for coral reef conservation 5 Challenges and needs for next-generation models

1. Coral reef biodiversity 4. Challenges for conservation science 2. Scales of population connectivity 5. Perspectives 3. Predicted impact of climate change Coral Reefs • The most biologically diverse of all marine ecosystems • A total of 1766 fish species and 727 coral species recorded to date • Many are still to be described Ecosystem goods and services • Food • Tourism Nearly 500 million people depend on • Biomedical compounds coral reefs,against storms and waves million of • Protection with probably 30 • Cultural heritage the poorest people relying entirely on reefs for food

1. Coral reef biodiversity 4. Challenges for conservation science 2. Scales of population connectivity 5. Perspectives 3. Predicted impact of climate change Anthropogenic pressure on coral reefs Overfishing Invasive species and starfish outbreaks Deforestation, soil erosion, sediment & nutrient loading Destructive fishing practices

1. Coral reef biodiversity 4. Challenges for conservation science 2. Scales of population connectivity 5. Perspectives 3. Predicted impact of climate change Climate change: a complex threat acting at multiple levels Hoegh-Guldberg et al. (2007) Science

1. Coral reef biodiversity 4. Challenges for conservation science 2. Scales of population connectivity 5. Perspectives 3. Predicted impact of climate change Plankton availability Ocean currents Temperature Predation Temporal scales Spatial scales Early recruitment Adult population size 50 km Robertson & Kaufman (1998) Aus J Ecol Cowen et al. (2006) Science

1. Coral reef biodiversity 4. Challenges for conservation science 2. Scales of population connectivity 5. Perspectives 3. Predicted impact of climate change Availability of suitable habitat Chemical or visual cues Resident communities

1. Coral reef biodiversity 4. Challenges for conservation science 2. Scales of population connectivity 5. Perspectives 3. Predicted impact of climate change e.g., Fecundity Longevity

1. Coral reef biodiversity 4. Challenges for conservation science 2. Scales of population connectivity 5. Perspectives 3. Predicted impact of climate change

1. Coral reef biodiversity 4. Challenges for conservation science 2. Scales of population connectivity 5. Perspectives 3. Predicted impact of climate change Steneck et al. (2009) Coral Reefs

1. Coral reef biodiversity 4. Challenges for conservation science 2. Scales of population connectivity 5. Perspectives 3. Predicted impact of climate change Steinberg (2007) in Climate Change and the Great Barrier Reef: A Vulnerability Assessment

1. Coral reef biodiversity 4. Challenges for conservation science 2. Scales of population connectivity 5. Perspectives 3. Predicted impact of climate change Simulated advection of passive particles around Lizard Island, Great Barrier Reef a) normal conditions b) with a 2° deviation of the SEC Munday et al. (2009) Coral Reefs

1. Coral reef biodiversity 4. Challenges for conservation science 2. Scales of population connectivity 5. Perspectives 3. Predicted impact of climate change source: National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Agency (NOAA)

1. Coral reef biodiversity 4. Challenges for conservation science 2. Scales of population connectivity 5. Perspectives 3. Predicted impact of climate change El Niño Tropical regions with significantly warmer or cooler maximum sea La Niña surface temperature (SST) 0.3° contour interval Annual SST difference since Significant difference in means (warmer or cooler) 1950 Data from British Atmospheric Data Centre

1. Coral reef biodiversity 4. Challenges for conservation science 2. Scales of population connectivity 5. Perspectives 3. Predicted impact of climate change Changes in sea surface temperature & impact on ecological successions Trophic level Ecological succession Pe lag ic Larval Duratio n (PLD) = f (te mpe rature ) MATCH-MISMATCH theory, David Cushing (1975;

1. Coral reef biodiversity 4. Challenges for conservation science 2. Scales of population connectivity 5. Perspectives 3. Predicted impact of climate change Influence of reduced Pelagic Larval Duration (PLD) on dispersal kernels: PLD – 20% PLD – 10 % PLD Munday et al. (2009) Coral Reefs

1. Coral reef biodiversity 4. Challenges for conservation science 2. Scales of population connectivity 5. Perspectives 3. Predicted impact of climate change Influence of reduced Pelagic Larval Duration (PLD) on inter-reef connectivity: Thalassoma bifasciatum (Labridae) PLD PLD – 20% High reef density Low reef density Munday et al (2009) Coral Reefs

1. Coral reef biodiversity 4. Challenges for conservation science 2. Scales of population connectivity 5. Perspectives 3. Predicted impact of climate change Climate change and ocean acidification Hoegh-Guldberg et al. (2007) Science

1. Coral reef biodiversity 4. Challenges for conservation science 2. Scales of population connectivity 5. Perspectives 3. Predicted impact of climate change Climate change and ocean acidification De’Ath et al. (2009) Science

1. Coral reef biodiversity 4. Challenges for conservation science 2. Scales of population connectivity 5. Perspectives 3. Predicted impact of climate change Future of coral reefs: phase shift and ecosystem collapse? Hoegh-Guldberg et al. (2007) Science

1. Coral reef biodiversity 4. Challenges for conservation science 2. Scales of population connectivity 5. Perspectives 3. Predicted impact of climate change Future of coral reefs: what does this all mean? Critically endangered species Critically endangered + Endangered species Critically endangered + Endangered + Vulnerable species Critically endangered + Endangered + Vulnerable + Near threatened species Carpenter et al. (2008) Science

1. Coral reef biodiversity 4. Challenges for conservation science 2. Scales of population connectivity 5. Perspectives 3. Predicted impact of climate change The positive effect of marine protected areas Mumby et al. (2006) Science McClanahan et al. (2007) Ecol Appl

1. Coral reef biodiversity 4. Challenges for conservation science 2. Scales of population connectivity 5. Perspectives 3. Predicted impact of climate change Designing marine protected areas: which criteria to account for? Fish Corals Species Richness (SR) Snails Lobsters Concordance in SR Threats to coral reefs Concordance in rarity and multitaxon centers of endemism Roberts et al. (2002) Science

1. Coral reef biodiversity 4. Challenges for conservation science 2. Scales of population connectivity 5. Perspectives 3. Predicted impact of climate change Species distribution models in coral reefs Pittman et al. (2007) Ecol Model Mellin et al. (2007) Coral Reefs

1. Coral reef biodiversity 4. Challenges for conservation science 2. Scales of population connectivity 5. Perspectives 3. Predicted impact of climate change Species distribution models in coral reefs Fish species richness Fish abundance Mellin et al. (in press) Global Ecology and Biogeography

1. Coral reef biodiversity 4. Challenges for conservation science 2. Scales of population connectivity 5. Perspectives 3. Predicted impact of climate change Species distribution models in coral reefs Mellin et al. (submitted to Ecology)

1. Coral reef biodiversity 4. Challenges for conservation science 2. Scales of population connectivity 5. Perspectives 3. Predicted impact of climate change Species distribution models in coral reefs: limits  Spatially explicit COMMUNITY-based models  Static SDM ignore species interactions, population and metapopulation dynamics  How to model the interactions between 1000s of species in coral reefs: using functional groups?  Models are rarely validated  Statistical validation only  Need for independent validation data sets

1. Coral reef biodiversity 4. Challenges for conservation science 2. Scales of population connectivity 5. Perspectives 3. Predicted impact of climate change Predicting the future : model projections based on clim change scenarios ate Need for similar approach in marine ecosystems, considering that: • Bathymetry is not a sufficient covariate – circulation patterns must be considered • 3D oceanographic models must be calibrated through initial conditions and conditions at domain boundaries

1. Coral reef biodiversity 4. Challenges for conservation science 2. Scales of population connectivity 5. Perspectives 3. Predicted impact of climate change Test the temporal stability of species-environment relationships Test the predictability of distribution models over time Araujo & Rahbeck (2006) Science

1. Coral reef biodiversity 4. Challenges for conservation science 2. Scales of population connectivity 5. Perspectives 3. Predicted impact of climate change Experimentation: an insight into the future? Bellwood et al. (2006) Current Biology

1. Coral reef biodiversity 4. Challenges for conservation science 2. Scales of population connectivity 5. Perspectives 3. Predicted impact of climate change Take-home message • Coral reefs are impacted by climate change in a number of ways • Management can mitigate climate change impact on coral reefs • Species distribution models can be useful to conservation, provided that they successfully incorporate the scales of population connectivity

Thanks for your attention! Further information camille.mellin@adelaide.edu.au http://www.adelaide.edu.au/directory/camille. mellin

Environment Institute Science Seminar Series 2009 Final Seminar Sem 1: 29 June – 12pm Policy responses to a drying climate may save Adelaide’s kelp forests Presented by: Associate Professor Sean Connell

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Science Seminar Series 11 Camille Mellin

by University of Adelaide on Jul 12, 2009

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