Science Seminar Series 10 Andrew Lowe

Environment Institute Science Seminar Series 2009 How can we help biodiversity adapt to the ravages of climate change? Presented by: Professor Andrew Lowe Australian Centre for Evolutionary Biology & Biodiversity www.adelaide.edu.au/environment/acebb

Climate change is with us Increasing temperature Rainfall redistribution Rising sea levels Fire frequency Expect major impacts on ecosystems – Phenological and ecosystem integrity – Migration of species – Adaptation – Extinction

ecological vs. evolutionary adaptation fundamental niche Native realised bioclimatic range competitor herbivore niche envelope Enemy release Adaptational shift fundamental niche Invasive range realised bioclimatic competitor niche envelope

Future expectations Queensland Rainforest vertebrates Fox et al, 2003, Proc Roy Soc

Future expectations Fox et al, 2003, Proc Roy Soc

Things are already starting to change Oak trees budding more than 1 month earlier Swallows arriving half a month earlier

Namibian Aloe Tree Significant range shift in last 100 years 1914 2002 Trailing edge (north) Diversity & Distributions, 2008

Namibian Aloe Tree Significant range shift in last 100 years 1904 2002 Leading edge (south) Diversity & Distributions, 2008

Need to define new conservation paradigms in face of climate change Biodiversity corridor planning Conserve and expand refugial populations Connect landscape to promote migration Assisted dispersal or predictive provenancing Long-term experiments and ecosystem monitoring Setup long-term restoration experiments Monitoring changing ecosystems

Biodiversity corridor planning Conserve and expand refugial populations Basis of current conservation action, – no need to change, – i.e. not going to make things worse Population size of 1000 promotes adaptation – Sgro, Lowe, Hoffman, TREE Other mechanisms to promote adaptation Locate refugia in landscape (Jolene Scoble)

Species Migrations – historical context 600 sequences of oak (Brewer et al 2002 Forest Ecol & Man.) Maximum rate of 500 m/year; 10-20 km in a generation

Phylogeographic analysis of European oak 12 EU labs 2613 populations 12,214 trees 37 countries Petit et al, 2002a, Forest Ecol & Man. 45 cpDNA types

Phylogenetic analysis reveals distinct lineages and colonisation routes Primary refugium (pollen evidence) Primary refugium (no pollen evidence) Secondary refugium ? ? ? ? 500 km Petit et al, 2002a, Forest Ecol & Man.

Phylogenetic diversity and species refugia Hewgill & Moritz

Biodiversity corridor planning Conserve and expand refugial populations Combine genetic refugia with landscape refugia & ecological gradients

Biodiversity corridor planning Landscape permiability How will species cope with fragmented landscapes between refugia?

SA pre-European state Total area = 780,000 ha Dave Turner, DEH

Current state Total area = 780,000 ha Remnants = 98,000 ha Approx 12.5% remaining Dave Turner, DEH

A) Deforested area Biodiversity corridor planning Landscape permiability Migration rate and landscape interaction B) Rainforest C) Tall eucalypt forest Pavlacky et al, in press, Molecular Ecology

Biodiversity corridor planning Landscape permiability Not all fragmented landscape interactions negative, for some species open habitat can promote geneflow Depends on scale 2-10 km maybe ok, 500km not Incorporate actual gene flow parameters into landscape modelling Socioeconomic matrix Dick, 2001, Proc Roy Soc

Permeability of landscapes David Turner, DEH

Biodiversity corridor planning Assisted dispersal and restoration Assisted dispersal – Moving target species Predictive provenancing – Using predictions of future distribution Composite provenancing

Current distribution Future distribution E obliqua Messmate stringybark Dave Turner

Biodiversity corridor planning Assisted dispersal and restoration Frequency of propagule dispersal Overiding local is Recpmmended proportion of stock best policy sourced from local, intermediate and long distance sources, following – Maximises local natural gene flow dispersal kernal adaptation Local – lowers diversity, reduces future resilience Intermediate Mimic species Long distance movement and gene flow Local Intermediate Long distance Distance from parent plant Broadhurst et al, 2008, Evolutionary Applications

Biodiversity corridor planning Integrated planning e.g. EmW Combine reserve systems and community uptake (heritage agreements) Craig Costion, PhD, University of Adelaide

Long-term experiments and ecosystem monitoring Need to set up – Long-term restoration plantings to test outcomes – Ecosystem condition monitoring

Restoration plantings •5 terrestrial biodiversity corridors across biogeographic zones – linking reserves •Across SA government •Including research institutes and business Terrestrial reserves and nature links corridors

NatureLinks •Using predictive modelling, for species and communities, identify pinch points and permeability of landscape •Integrate adaptation (corridors) and mitigation (carbon sequestration) in biodiversity conservation strategy planning and incentivisation •Incorporate assisted dispersal and adaptive planting strategies •Example - River Murray Forest Terrestrial reserves and nature links corridors

Long-term experiments and ecosystem monitoring Restoration plantings Onground plantings Species Best current practise: past present future 4. Species and provenance selection Provenance 5. Evaluate outcomes past present future with MBIs future Gene flow Future recommendations past present future Integrate info to derive new evidence-based guidelines

Long-term experiments and ecosystem monitoring Terrestrial Ecosystem Research Network – NCRIS funding ($500M in research infrastructure) – TERN – $20M, ecosystem monitoring (remote sensing, flux and plots), informatics and analysis Ecosystem monitoring – Dynamics and responses of Australian ecosystems relatively poorly understood – Climate change impacts difficult to predict – Need long-term monitoring and analysis

Monitoring to focus on Australian rangelands in first phase, to be extended into mesic systems later Target existing survey & monitoring sites where possible

Issues to be addressed by ecosystem monitoring programme Issues Application Methodology Biodiversity discovery - species knowledge - taxonomy - DNA barcoding Species distribution - modelling distribution - plot based - presence/absence (e.g. bioclimatic envelope prediction for present/futures) Demographic profile - modelling species dynamics, - plot/photo based (age profile) demographic processes - phylogeography/pop genetics (connectivity) Condition assessment - change over time/structure/invasives - plot/photo based – productivity - landscape function analysis Remote sensing ground - improved remote sensing accuracy - plots – ground cover/leaf area truthing and validation of derived products (eg LAI) Soil resources - stocks and flows of soils - C, N, P, K assessment - soil crusts - role in arid ecosystems - DNA barcoding/taxonomy Climate/Moisture - water cycling in rangelands - water collection - soil moisture probe Climate change - shift in ecotonal boundaries - plots across ecotones monitoring Focus on perennial flora and soils to start with, but could extend to fauna (ACRIS)

Plot/transect based methods Species presence/absence Structure, veg class height Plot/transect (belt/line/point) Age/size profile Recruitment Invasives, degraded Landscape function

New methods to be developed Plot/transect based methods, landscape function DNA barcoding/taxonomy Photo points and image interpretation Population genetics: connectivity etc Remote sensing ground truthing & plot visualisation Soil nutrient stocks, moisture, cryptic biodiversity Specific recommendations to pick up changes

TERN Partnerships and collaboration Field survey ACRIS TERN ecosystem monitoring ABRS Bush Heritage Earthwatch Knowledge Ecological Understanding Biodiversity discovery Taxonomy Ecosystem Function/condition Species distribution DNA barcoding Ecosystem change Rare/threatened species Systematics Accessible information/data Ecoinformatics & Remote Sensing Atlas of Living Australia TERN (AVH, OzCAM)

Need to define new conservation paradigms in face of climate change Biodiversity corridor planning Conserve and expand refugial populations Connect landscape to promote migration Assisted dispersal or predictive provenancing Long-term experiments and ecosystem monitoring Setup long-term restoration experiments Monitoring changing ecosystems

Environment Institute Science Seminar Series 2009 Next Seminar: 22 June – 12pm Predicting coral reef biodiversity patterns for conservation a confederacy of ecological scales Presented by: Doctor Camille Mellin

Science Seminar Series 10 Andrew Lowe

by University of Adelaide on Jul 12, 2009

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