Communicating
Worlds 2020
by Eduardo Griffa
Head of Ericsson Consulting
Market Unit South America
for
http://www.linkedin.com/in/eduardogriffa

Thinking through stories, and talking in depth
about their implications, brings each person’s
unspoken assumptions about the future to the
surface.
Scenarios are thus the most powerful vehicle I
know for challenging our ‘mental models’ about
the world, and lifting the ‘blinders’ that limit our
creativity and resourcefulness.
[Peter Schwartz, “The Art of the Long View”, 1991]
© Ericsson AB 2008 Commercial in confidence 2 2020 Overview Presentation

Communicating Worlds 2020
Ericsson scenario project set-up
Scanning Scenarios
Likely truths
Critical uncertainities
Disruptive events
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12 years’ perspective
1997: Kyoto 9/11 2001 2007: IPCC, Al Gore
protocol adopted WTC twin towers Nobel Peace Prize
1996 2008 2020
1996: 136.2 M
2004: 1 B 3.7 Billion
mobile phone
GSM users Mobile
users globally
2001: subscriptions
Wikipedia
1998: First launched
digital terrestrial TV
launched in UK
2006: The NL is first country to
1998: Google switch to Digital Over-the-Air
founded (terrestrial) broadcasting
© Ericsson AB 2008 Commercial in confidence 4 2020 Overview Presentation

What will create value for people in 2020?
© Ericsson AB 2008 Commercial in confidence 5 2020 Overview Presentation

The world in 2020 – likely truths
Networking, personalization and mobility will radically transform
user patterns
patterns
User
ICT solutions will be increasingly critical for enterprises to secure
sustainable competitiveness
One billion new middle-class consumers will enter the global
marketplace, mainly in Asia
Operator consolidation, cross-industry collaboration and low-cost
dynamics
innovation will redefine the industry
Industry
Most user services will be delivered independently of the network
provider
Everything that benefits from a wireless network connection will
have one
China and India will emerge as economic powers with fundamental
Business
global impact
context
Sustainability and scarcity of resources will shape political
agendas and ignite conflicts
Societal vulnerabilities will increase dependency on safety and
security solutions
© Ericsson AB 2008 Commercial in confidence 6 2020 Overview Presentation

Communicating Worlds 2020
User
es? user
patterns De
ser d wit ity
Reg ainabi
sus
v n?
v
ic
h
ti o
bin ecti
e
ulat
ev olu
t
Industry oev
User preferences?
com Conn
vic
rk luti
e ion y?
o on
dynamics e tw
lit
N ?
for
Business
context
Likely Truths ⇒ Critical Uncertainties ⇒ Scenarios
© Ericsson AB 2008 Commercial in confidence 7 2020 Overview Presentation

Critical uncertainties
Users want
Users want choice User preferences? convenience
Network
Network evolution? Network dependent
independent services
services
All-purpose devices Device evolution? Specialized devices
Separated network Connectivity Vertically integrated
and user service combined with user network/service
providers services? providers
Profound regulatory Regulation for No profound
action sustainability? regulatory action
© Ericsson AB 2008 Commercial in confidence 8 2020 Overview Presentation

2020 scenarios at a glance
Users want
Users want choice User preferences? convenience
Network
Network evolution? Network dependent
independent services
services
All-purpose devices Device evolution? Specialized devices
Separated network Connectivity Vertically integrated
and user service combined with user network/service
providers services? providers
Profound regulatory Regulation for No profound
action sustainability? regulatory action
© Ericsson AB 2008 Commercial in confidence 9 2020 Overview Presentation

Brands and Pipes
Scenario I
I want the best
quality and I have
chosen the brands
Few large operators cost- that suit me and my
MyStore lifestyle.
effectively providing
Connectivity is no
network connectivity MyMusic longer an issue.
MyApps
Enterprises’ expectations similar to those of consumers
Trust different brands for business and public activities
Large and innovative “branded” providers offer lifestyle
services independently of network providers
© Ericsson AB 2008 Commercial in confidence 10 2020 Overview Presentation

User Choice
Scenario II
I choose what’s
best for me,
and I’m not
afraid to change
service provider!
A capable network
Enterprises’ need for advanced, dedicated
Small, innovative players services drives an integrated telecom/datacom
offering abundance of services (IP-based) network solution
Many small & innovative players offer an abundance of services
using an intelligent “network operating system”
© Ericsson AB 2008 Commercial in confidence 11 2020 Overview Presentation

I am choosing the
environmentally friendly
Green Shift alternatives,
and I am highly
Scenario III rewarded for my choices.
Our lives are different
now, and more restricted,
but we can look forward
to a brighter tomorrow.
E-government
M2M
Government regulation
for sustainable evolution
•Measurements
E-health Telepresence
•Incentives
•Taxation
•Resource pooling E-work
Logistics
Enterprises in all sectors will seek means to reach legal and market requirements
Multinationals forced to change business operations into multi-domestic/multi-regional character
Add a second CO2 bottom line focusing on optimizing business processes and on smart climate offerings
Profound political actions on sustainability
change user patterns and demands
© Ericsson AB 2008 Commercial in confidence 12 2020 Overview Presentation

I don’t want to choose from
All Inclusive different providers and
services, when everything can
be taken care of by my all-
Scenario IV inclusive provider. Life is
simple and convenient.
Communications
Devices
Connectivity
Content
Enterprises adapt all-inclusive offerings for basic communicatiosn need and certain business-critical applications
Rely on independent system integrators and dedicated online players for complementing applications
Large and vertically integrated players emerge
and provide everything from connectivity to content
© Ericsson AB 2008 Commercial in confidence 13 2020 Overview Presentation

Enter Life in 2020
http://www.ericsson.com/ericsson/2020-081217/
© Ericsson AB 2008 Commercial in confidence 14 2020 Overview Presentation

2020 scenarios at a glance
Large and innovative “branded” providers offer lifestyle
services independently of network providers.
Many small & innovative players offer an abundance of
services using an intelligent “network operating system”.
Profound political actions on sustainability will change
user patterns and demands of people and enterprises.
Large and vertically integrated players will emerge and
provide everything from connectivity to content.
© Ericsson AB 2008 Commercial in confidence 15 2020 Overview Presentation

2020 scenarios voting result
4%
22% 33%
41% Gracias
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© Ericsson AB 2008 Commercial in confidence 17 2020 Overview Presentation