Peak Oil
Will the rate of global oil production start to
decline soon?
And what might this mean for WA transport
planning?...
Hurricane Katrina New Orleans




                                US Federal, State and local Governments were
           ...
www.ASPO-Australia.org.au
An Australia-wide network of professionals working to reduce oil vulnerability
                 ...
Outline                                            Peak Oil
What is Peak Oil ?                                            ...
Unexpected transport pattern changes,
infrastructure & planning decisions




                                        Frem...
Unexpected transport pattern changes, and infrastructure

Passengers p.a.                             Fremantle Port 1961-...
Unexpected transport pattern changes, and infrastructure

Passengers p.a.                             Fremantle Port 1961-...
Fremantle Passenger Terminal




                               8
US oil peak 1970
10
mb/d
        US Oil Production
8          1900-2006
         (million barrels/day)

6


4


2


0
 190...
Rolf Willkrans
Director
Environmental Affairs
2005




                        10
Monday October 22 2007

       Fig. 7 Oil production world summary




                                             2008
 ...
World Oil Production
and Forecasts                           2012 +/- 5 years ?
                                          ...
"A MIDDLE EAST VIEW OF THE GLOBAL OIL SITUATION"
A.M. Samsam Bakhtiari
National Iranian Oil Company
May 2002




Global oi...
Dr. Sadad I. Al Husseini, ex Saudi Aramco
                 Oil and Money Conference, London, October 30, 2007
           ....
APPEA
                  April 2005
                  Perth
Australian Petroleum Production &
Exploration Association confe...
16
Chris Skrebowski
        Editor, Petroleum Review, London
        The practical realities

• Worry about flows not reserve...
A simple observation -- or why peak will be
         earlier than most people expect
‘Global production falls when loss of...
The real oil discovery trend
                         Longwell, 2002




                                          19
1000 Barrel/day
6000


                                      UK
4000



2000
                                             ...
1000 Barrel/day
6000

                           Indonesia
3500



                                                       ...
1000 Barrel/day                                                    Consumption

6000
                                     ...
Iran 10c/litre
                 Venezuela 2c/l




Jeff Rubin
September 2007




Canadian Imperial Banking
Corporation

  ...
World Liquids Exports estimate to December 2007
 “Peak Exports” occurs before “Peak Oil”




                             ...
Australia’s oil production and consumption
                            Actual               Forecast
1.0
      Million bar...
Australia uses 51,000,000,000 litres of oil each year
a cube of about 370 metres size
80% of Australia’s oil usage is in t...
Million barrels/ day 2006
  BP Statistical Review, 2007
Australia uses    0.9
China             7.4             l     1 km...
"....there is no coordinated federal strategy for reducing
uncertainty about the peak’s timing or mitigating its
consequen...
05
                  Peaking of World Oil Production
20 dy                    Impacts, Mitigation and Risk Management
 Stu...
COST AS A FUNCTION OF START TIME
            (Notional)




Cost of   Premature
 Error       Start


                     ...
Les Magoon,
                                                        USGS 2001




Is there a possible transition to anothe...
DPI-WA




Oil Vulnerability Index for Sydney (2005)

                                                     32
Mortgage and Oil Vulnerability
                                                    in Perth




at www.aspo-australia.org....
$10 PER LITRE PETROL: A SCENARIO
                David Rice, Senior WA Transport Planner
But why $10/l?
Simple
memorable
a...
Analogy:

The Canberra fire-storms of
January 2003 destroyed over
400 houses; on the outer
edge of the outer suburbs




 ...
Perth
Oil shocks, like the        30 km
$10/litre scenario, may
well wipe out the entire
outer rows of suburbs
from Perth,...
Perth
Oil shocks, like the        30 km
$10/litre scenario, may
well wipe out the entire
outer rows of suburbs
from Perth,...
Perth
Oil shocks, like the        30 km
$10/litre scenario, may
well wipe out the entire
outer rows of suburbs
from Perth,...
Perth
Oil shocks, like the        30 km
$10/litre scenario, may
well wipe out the entire
outer rows of suburbs
from Perth,...
Perth
Oil shocks, like the        30 km
$10/litre scenario, may
well wipe out the entire
outer rows of suburbs
from Perth,...
Gboe/pa                 World All Oil
60
         NGL
         Polar
50
         Deepwater
         Heavy etc
40
         ...
Sydney
         Perth




                 42
43
44
45
Government of Western Australia

STATE LIQUID FUEL SHORTAGE
     EMERGENCY PLAN

    OPERATIONAL PLAN
                    ...
PERTH TRAVEL SURVEY - 2003
                                        100%
Mode Shares
                                      ...
ABARE's oil price forecasts have proven to be
                                  systematically low
                       ...
Australian Government Policy and Action Options

 1: “Talk about it, Talk about it”
 2. Engage people, “Participatory demo...
www.ASPO-Australia.org.au


Priorities
First: Awareness and engagement
(including in transport planning circles)

Frugalit...
Bicycles are powered
                       by biofuel,
                       renewable energy,

                       e...
No footpath or cyclepath on the bridge
               WHY??




          Roe Highway Bridge
           Kwinana Freeway


...
Perth                 Train station
                                  Shopping centre




Lack of bicycle transport
access...
We will need a deeper
oil vulnerability index
for Keralup than just
a dark red like
Rockingham
and Armadale




          ...
www.ASPO-Australia.org.au


Priorities
First: Awareness and engagement
(including in transport planning circles)

Frugalit...
a few more slides follow,
in case they are needed for questions




                                        56
Petrol taxes OECD
   Au$                                        UK   €
                                   Portugal        ...
The UK Fuel Tax Escalator Margaret Thatcher
pence
               Nominal tax per litre (pence)
 50
               Real tax...
59
VAMPIRE Oil vulnerability and mortgage rate risk




                                                   60
61
Gb/year
      5 0




 50                                                            Efficiency
                          ...
Ghawar is Saudi Arabia's and the world's biggest oilfield
            If it is at peak, then global peak is probably very ...
Gboe/pa                 World All Oil
60
         NGL
         Polar
50
         Deepwater
         Heavy etc
40
         ...
Gboe/pa                 World All Oil & Gas   (gas at 10,000 cft=1bbl)

60
         Non-Con Gas
50       Gas
         NGL
...
Gb/year
      50




 50
                                             Demand
               World oil                     ...
February 2004




By 2015, we will
need to find,
develop and
produce new oil
and gas equal to
eight out of
every 10 barrel...
Past Oil Production                                   Demand
     1.0




and Forecasts
     0.8



     0.6



    Austra...
Australia
                    US



China




                         69
70
71
72
73
Global liquids capacity to 2015

              120.00




              110.00




              100.00
Million b/d




  ...
SCENARIOS ANALYSIS CONCLUSIONS
 Basis: Immediate crash program implementation


       Scenario                    Result
...
76
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Peak Oil by Bruce Robinson

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Peak Oil by Bruce Robinson

  1. 1. Peak Oil Will the rate of global oil production start to decline soon? And what might this mean for WA transport planning? Transport Panel 27th March 2008 Bruce Robinson, Convenor Look out !! Something serious is looming on the radar ??? ? 1
  2. 2. Hurricane Katrina New Orleans US Federal, State and local Governments were shown to be shortsighted, ill-prepared, uncaring and disorganised. Australian governments are much less organised for Peak Oil 2
  3. 3. www.ASPO-Australia.org.au An Australia-wide network of professionals working to reduce oil vulnerability Working groups Finance Sector Health Sector Social Services Sector Remote indigenous communities Active transport (bicycle & walking) Agriculture, Fisheries and Food Biofuels Urban and transport planning Oil & Gas industry Regional and city working groups Construction Industry Public transport sector Defence and Security Economics Tourism Children and Peak Oil Young Professionals working group 3
  4. 4. Outline Peak Oil What is Peak Oil ? but the time when global oil production when? stops rising and starts its final decline We will never "run out of oil" 1930 1970 2010 2050 ● When is the most probable forecast date ? ? 2012 +/- 5 years "Peak Exports" is even more important, and sooner ● Peak Oil will impact very dramatically on transport ● Options for Australia and Australians 4
  5. 5. Unexpected transport pattern changes, infrastructure & planning decisions Fremantle Passenger Terminal completed 1962 5
  6. 6. Unexpected transport pattern changes, and infrastructure Passengers p.a. Fremantle Port 1961-2001 250,000 Fremantle Passenger Terminal opened 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 - 61-62 63-64 65-66 67-68 69-70 71-72 73-74 75-76 77-78 79-80 81-82 83-84 85-86 87-88 89-90 91-92 93-94 95-96 97-98 99-00 01-02 6
  7. 7. Unexpected transport pattern changes, and infrastructure Passengers p.a. Fremantle Port 1961-2001 250,000 Fremantle Passenger Terminal opened 200,000 World Air travel 1950-2001 150,000 100,000 50,000 - 61-62 63-64 65-66 67-68 69-70 71-72 73-74 75-76 77-78 79-80 81-82 83-84 85-86 87-88 89-90 91-92 93-94 95-96 97-98 99-00 01-02 7
  8. 8. Fremantle Passenger Terminal 8
  9. 9. US oil peak 1970 10 mb/d US Oil Production 8 1900-2006 (million barrels/day) 6 4 2 0 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 9
  10. 10. Rolf Willkrans Director Environmental Affairs 2005 10
  11. 11. Monday October 22 2007 Fig. 7 Oil production world summary 2008 11
  12. 12. World Oil Production and Forecasts 2012 +/- 5 years ? IEA 2002 Dr Ali Samsam Bakhtiari 4 40 Iran Shell Prof. Bauquis France 0 3 30 Deffeyes Bauquis, Total Gb pa 0 2 20 ASPO & Skrebowski 0 1 10 0 2007 0 0 0 1930 1970 2010 2050 Zittel & Schindler, Oct 2007 Chris Skrebowski Germany UK Prof. Aleklett, ASPO Sweden 12
  13. 13. "A MIDDLE EAST VIEW OF THE GLOBAL OIL SITUATION" A.M. Samsam Bakhtiari National Iranian Oil Company May 2002 Global oil crunch at the horizon --- most probably within the present decade. "...It would take a number of miracles to thwart such a rational scenario.. A series of simultaneous miracles is not possible --for there are limits even to God Almighty's mercifulness". “Noah built his ark before it started raining” www.isv.uu.se/iwood2002 13
  14. 14. Dr. Sadad I. Al Husseini, ex Saudi Aramco Oil and Money Conference, London, October 30, 2007 ...predicts a 10 year plateau a structural ceiling determined by geology Production Price M b/day $/barrel 100 90 80 70 14
  15. 15. APPEA April 2005 Perth Australian Petroleum Production & Exploration Association conference •Please put your hand up if you think that we have crossed the Hubbert Peak •1/3rd Eric Streitberg •and hands up those who •1/3rd Executive Director don’t? ARC Energy Limited •Undecided •1/3rd 15
  16. 16. 16
  17. 17. Chris Skrebowski Editor, Petroleum Review, London The practical realities • Worry about flows not reserves • "Deliverability" “It isn't the size of the tank; it’s the size of the tap” (ASPO-USA) 17
  18. 18. A simple observation -- or why peak will be earlier than most people expect ‘Global production falls when loss of output from countries in decline exceeds gains in output from those that are expanding.’ Expansion Decline 18
  19. 19. The real oil discovery trend Longwell, 2002 19
  20. 20. 1000 Barrel/day 6000 UK 4000 2000 Consumption 0 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Export/Import -2000 Production decline rate ~ 10% UK already a net importer -4000 Quelle: BP Analyse: LBST, ß 20
  21. 21. 1000 Barrel/day 6000 Indonesia 3500 Consumption 1000 Export 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 -1500 -4000 Quelle: BP; Analyse: LBST, ß 21
  22. 22. 1000 Barrel/day Consumption 6000 China 4000 2000 Production 0 2020 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 -2000 -4000 Imports Data: BP. Analyse: Zittel LBST, ß, Pang Xiongqi 22
  23. 23. Iran 10c/litre Venezuela 2c/l Jeff Rubin September 2007 Canadian Imperial Banking Corporation 23
  24. 24. World Liquids Exports estimate to December 2007 “Peak Exports” occurs before “Peak Oil” forecast Rubin 2007 from Oilwatch Monthly: ASPO-Netherlands Rembrandt Koppelaar 24
  25. 25. Australia’s oil production and consumption Actual Forecast 1.0 Million barrels/day 0.8 0.6 Consumption } $12.5 billion 2006/07 0.4 P50 0.2 Production 0.0 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 Geoscience Australia, APPEA, ABARE 25
  26. 26. Australia uses 51,000,000,000 litres of oil each year a cube of about 370 metres size 80% of Australia’s oil usage is in transport If Australia’s 20 M tpa wheat crop → ethanol = ~10% Perth’s Central Park building is 249 m high, to top of tower 100 ml of oil contains 1 kWh of energy. Enough to move a small car to the top of the Eiffel tower 26
  27. 27. Million barrels/ day 2006 BP Statistical Review, 2007 Australia uses 0.9 China 7.4 l 1 km l US 20.6 World 83.7 US 1 cubic km oil / year Australia China United States 27
  28. 28. "....there is no coordinated federal strategy for reducing uncertainty about the peak’s timing or mitigating its consequences". 28
  29. 29. 05 Peaking of World Oil Production 20 dy Impacts, Mitigation and Risk Management Stu for US DOE NETL Hirsch, Bezdek and Wendling, 2005 "The peaking of world oil production presents the U.S. and the world with an unprecedented risk management problem" "The world has never faced a problem like this. .. oil peaking will be abrupt and revolutionary". 35 EOR 25 Coal Liquids Impact (MM bpd) 15 Heavy Oil 5 GTL Efficient 0 Vehicles 0 5 10 15 20 Years After Crash Program Initiation 29
  30. 30. COST AS A FUNCTION OF START TIME (Notional) Cost of Premature Error Start “It is also certain that the cost of preparing too early is nowhere near the cost of not being ready on time.” Alannah MacTiernan, 2004 Time - 20 Years - 10 Years Peaking Scenario III Scenario II Scenario I 30
  31. 31. Les Magoon, USGS 2001 Is there a possible transition to another fuel for most cars?. Probably not Can we swap to public transport for most trips? No Will an urgent change now in transport planning practices help us? Yes, dramatically in the long term 31
  32. 32. DPI-WA Oil Vulnerability Index for Sydney (2005) 32
  33. 33. Mortgage and Oil Vulnerability in Perth at www.aspo-australia.org.au/content/view/120/55/ 33
  34. 34. $10 PER LITRE PETROL: A SCENARIO David Rice, Senior WA Transport Planner But why $10/l? Simple memorable an illustration of ‘expensive’ see www.aspo-australia.org.au in "bibliography" 34
  35. 35. Analogy: The Canberra fire-storms of January 2003 destroyed over 400 houses; on the outer edge of the outer suburbs Reliable predictions had been ignored by the authorities, and there was no effective action to minimise the risks 35
  36. 36. Perth Oil shocks, like the 30 km $10/litre scenario, may well wipe out the entire outer rows of suburbs from Perth, with the same results of destroyed homes, broken dreams and broken marriages. 36
  37. 37. Perth Oil shocks, like the 30 km $10/litre scenario, may well wipe out the entire outer rows of suburbs from Perth, with the same results of destroyed homes, broken dreams and broken marriages. 37
  38. 38. Perth Oil shocks, like the 30 km $10/litre scenario, may well wipe out the entire outer rows of suburbs from Perth, with the same results of destroyed homes, broken dreams and broken marriages. 38
  39. 39. Perth Oil shocks, like the 30 km $10/litre scenario, may well wipe out the entire outer rows of suburbs from Perth, with the same results of destroyed homes, broken dreams and broken marriages. 39
  40. 40. Perth Oil shocks, like the 30 km $10/litre scenario, may well wipe out the entire outer rows of suburbs from Perth, with the same results of destroyed homes, broken dreams and broken marriages. 40
  41. 41. Gboe/pa World All Oil 60 NGL Polar 50 Deepwater Heavy etc 40 Regular Oil 30 20 10 0 2007 } Oil 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 www.PeakOil.net ASPO 2006 41
  42. 42. Sydney Perth 42
  43. 43. 43
  44. 44. 44
  45. 45. 45
  46. 46. Government of Western Australia STATE LIQUID FUEL SHORTAGE EMERGENCY PLAN OPERATIONAL PLAN PREPARED BY ENERGY SAFETY DIRECTORATE DEPARTMENT OF CONSUMER AND EMPLOYMENT PROTECTION 20 Southport Street, W Leederville WA 6007 Tel: (08) 9422 5200 Fax: (08) 9422 5244 January 2003 46
  47. 47. PERTH TRAVEL SURVEY - 2003 100% Mode Shares Perth Mode Share (2003) Walk only 10.6% 80% Cycle Public transport 1.6% 3.9% 60% If 25% of car users change to public transport { Car passenger 29.1% 40% Car driver 53.2% Other (taxi, motorbike, 20% etc.) 1.5% Total 100.0% 0% Walk Bicycle Transit Car We need both petrol rationing plans and public transport rationing plans in place in case of fuel emergencies. There must be public transport input into State and Federal fuel emergency planning. 47
  48. 48. ABARE's oil price forecasts have proven to be systematically low Actual price 120 100 WTI (US$/barrel) March 2008 80 prediction 60 March 2007 prediction 40 March 2006 20 prediction 0 March 2005 prediction 30 9/2 1 30 9/2 2 30 9/2 3 30 9/2 4 30 9/2 5 30 9/2 6 30 9/2 7 30 9/2 8 30 9/2 9 9/ 0 11 / 0 00 / 0 00 / 0 00 / 0 00 / 0 00 / 0 00 / 0 00 / 0 00 / 0 00 / 0 01 March 2004 20 30 9/2 prediction /0 30 March 2003 Economists' forecasts published Nov 2005 Prof Tony Owen, UNSW, now at Curtin $35/barrel in a couple of years Nobel Economics winner, Vernon Smith (at UNSW) $15/barrel in the near future 48
  49. 49. Australian Government Policy and Action Options 1: “Talk about it, Talk about it” 2. Engage people, “Participatory democracy” 3. Dismantle the "perverse policies" that subsidise heavy car use and excessive freight transport. 4. Encourage frugal use of fuel, and disadvantage profligate users. Fuel taxes should be incrementally raised to European levels to reduce usage. 5: SmartCard tradable personal fuel allocation system. A flexible mechanism for short- term oil shocks, as well for encouraging people to reduce their fuel usage.. 6. Concentrate on the psychological and social dimensions of automobile dependence, not just “technological fixes” 7. Implement nationwide "individualised marketing" travel demand management. 8. Railways, cyclepaths and public transport are better investments than more roads. 9. Give priority for remaining oil and gas supplies to food production, essential services and indigenous communities, using the Smart-Card system. 10. Review the oil vulnerability of every industry and community sector and how each may reduce their risks. 11 Promote through the United Nations an Intergovernmental Panel on Oil Depletion, and a Kyoto-like protocol to allocate equitably the declining oil among nations. An international tradable sliding scale allocation mechanism is one hypothetical option. 49
  50. 50. www.ASPO-Australia.org.au Priorities First: Awareness and engagement (including in transport planning circles) Frugality Efficiency Last: Alternative fuels Failure to act NOW will prove incredibly costly Oil vulnerability assessment and risk management is an important tool The proposed Oil Vulnerability Research Network is a timely opportunity. Suggestions invited Hint: Check your superannuation is not being invested into urban toll-roads, tunnels and airports Bruce.Robinson@ASPO-Australia.org.au 0427 398 708 61-8-9384-7409 50
  51. 51. Bicycles are powered by biofuel, renewable energy, either Weetbix or abdominal fat No shortage of either www.ASPO-Australia.org.Au 51
  52. 52. No footpath or cyclepath on the bridge WHY?? Roe Highway Bridge Kwinana Freeway 52
  53. 53. Perth Train station Shopping centre Lack of bicycle transport access. Atwell & Harvest Lakes Landcorp, Main Roads Main Roads cyclepath The Harvest Lakes subdivision is close to the Cockburn train station and the shopping centre, but there is no cyclepath on the eastern side of the freeway. Harvest Lakes subdivision 53
  54. 54. We will need a deeper oil vulnerability index for Keralup than just a dark red like Rockingham and Armadale 54
  55. 55. www.ASPO-Australia.org.au Priorities First: Awareness and engagement (including in transport planning circles) Frugality Efficiency Last: Alternative fuels Failure to act NOW will prove incredibly costly Oil vulnerability assessment and risk management is an important tool The proposed Oil Vulnerability Research Network is a timely opportunity. Suggestions invited Hint: Check your superannuation is not being invested into urban toll-roads, tunnels and airports Bruce.Robinson@ASPO-Australia.org.au 0427 398 708 61-8-9384-7409 55
  56. 56. a few more slides follow, in case they are needed for questions 56
  57. 57. Petrol taxes OECD Au$ UK € Portugal 0.80 cents/litre 0.60 Australia 0.40 0.20 US 0.00 IEA Dec 2003 57
  58. 58. The UK Fuel Tax Escalator Margaret Thatcher pence Nominal tax per litre (pence) 50 Real tax 40 30 20 10 0 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 Australian fuel taxes should be raised to European levels on a fuel tax escalator 58
  59. 59. 59
  60. 60. VAMPIRE Oil vulnerability and mortgage rate risk 60
  61. 61. 61
  62. 62. Gb/year 5 0 50 Efficiency Demand World oil Growth Transport 40 4 0 shortfall scenarios mode shifts Pricing / taxes City design/lifestyle 30 Past Production of Oil 3 0 Other petroleum fuels gas, tar-sands 20 2 0 Other fuels Forecast Deprivation, war Production 10 1 0 2007 0 0 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 • no single “Magic Bullet” solution, • probably no replacement ever for cheap plentiful oil • Urgent preparation and adjustment are vital 62
  63. 63. Ghawar is Saudi Arabia's and the world's biggest oilfield If it is at peak, then global peak is probably very close Blue is water, green is water and oil mixed and red/purple is “dry” oil with little water in it 63
  64. 64. Gboe/pa World All Oil 60 NGL Polar 50 Deepwater Heavy etc 40 Regular Oil 30 20 10 0 2007 } Oil 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 www.PeakOil.net ASPO 2006 64
  65. 65. Gboe/pa World All Oil & Gas (gas at 10,000 cft=1bbl) 60 Non-Con Gas 50 Gas NGL Polar 40 Deepwater Heavy etc 30 Regular Oil Gas 20 10 0 2007 } Oil 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 www.PeakOil.net ASPO 2006 65
  66. 66. Gb/year 50 50 Demand World oil Trend 40 shortfall scenarios 40 30 30 Past Production of Oil Shortfall 20 20 Forecast Production 10 10 2007 2030 0 0 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 By 2030, the gap is equivalent to 6,000 nuclear reactors 66
  67. 67. February 2004 By 2015, we will need to find, develop and produce new oil and gas equal to eight out of every 10 barrels being produced today. 67
  68. 68. Past Oil Production Demand 1.0 and Forecasts 0.8 0.6 Australia 0.4 Geoscience Australia 0.2 Total Bass Strait 0.0 1930 1930 1970 1970 2010 2010 2050 2050 4 40 IEA Shell 0 World ASPO and others 3 30 Bauquis Gb pa 0 Samsam Bakhtiari 2 20 Deffeyes ASPO 0 1 10 0 2007 0 0 0 1930 1970 2010 2050 68
  69. 69. Australia US China 69
  70. 70. 70
  71. 71. 71
  72. 72. 72
  73. 73. 73
  74. 74. Global liquids capacity to 2015 120.00 110.00 100.00 Million b/d Supply IEA 90.00 Capacity CS Capacity CERA 80.00 70.00 60.00 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Year 74
  75. 75. SCENARIOS ANALYSIS CONCLUSIONS Basis: Immediate crash program implementation Scenario Result Oil shortages largest, Wait for peaking longest lasting Delays peaking; still Start 10 years early shortages Avoids the problem; Start 20 years early smooth transition No quick fix! 75
  76. 76. 76
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