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Is National Rail Policy On The Right Track By Brett Hughes
Is National Rail Policy On The Right Track By Brett Hughes
Is National Rail Policy On The Right Track By Brett Hughes
Is National Rail Policy On The Right Track By Brett Hughes
Is National Rail Policy On The Right Track By Brett Hughes
Is National Rail Policy On The Right Track By Brett Hughes
Is National Rail Policy On The Right Track By Brett Hughes
Is National Rail Policy On The Right Track By Brett Hughes
Is National Rail Policy On The Right Track By Brett Hughes
Is National Rail Policy On The Right Track By Brett Hughes
Is National Rail Policy On The Right Track By Brett Hughes
Is National Rail Policy On The Right Track By Brett Hughes
Is National Rail Policy On The Right Track By Brett Hughes
Is National Rail Policy On The Right Track By Brett Hughes
Is National Rail Policy On The Right Track By Brett Hughes
Is National Rail Policy On The Right Track By Brett Hughes
Is National Rail Policy On The Right Track By Brett Hughes
Is National Rail Policy On The Right Track By Brett Hughes
Is National Rail Policy On The Right Track By Brett Hughes
Is National Rail Policy On The Right Track By Brett Hughes
Is National Rail Policy On The Right Track By Brett Hughes
Is National Rail Policy On The Right Track By Brett Hughes
Is National Rail Policy On The Right Track By Brett Hughes
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Is National Rail Policy On The Right Track By Brett Hughes

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  • 1. C-MARC Is National Rail Policy on the Right Track? Reflections from Canberra Assoc. Professor Brett Hughes Assoc Director Curtin - Monash Accident Research Centre, Curtin University Institution of Engineers (Australia) WATransport Panel February 2010 Curtin – Monash Accident Research Centre www.c-marc.curtin.edu.au www.c- C-MARC Overview Transport Challenges Rail in Transport Personal Perspectives Accident Issues Curtin – Monash Accident Research Centre www.c-marc.curtin.edu.au www.c-
  • 2. C-MARC The government's view of the economy could be summed up in a few short p phrases: If it moves, t it. tax it If it keeps moving, regulate it. p g g And if it stops moving, subsidize it. - Ronald Reagan Industry's view of the economy? The Th community's view of the economy? it ' i f th ? Curtin – Monash Accident Research Centre www.c-marc.curtin.edu.au www.c- C-MARC Transport Challenges  Congestion  GFC  Fuel price  Climate Change  Emissions – greenhouse gases  Accessibility & Equity – NOx, SOx, etc  Workforce Attraction & – particulates Retention R t ti  Transport Demand  Community & Business y – Passenger ( (population) l ti ) Expectations – Freight (population and economy) Curtin – Monash Accident Research Centre www.c-marc.curtin.edu.au www.c-
  • 3. C-MARC Optimum Passenger Transport Density Conditions: Distance Density (capacity) Air Speed Very Terrain Heavy Fast Walk Rail Train Light Rail Bus or Ferry Car Cycle Distance Source: Adapted from The Transportation Experience Policy, Planning, and Deployment. Garrison & Levinson, Oxford Uni Press, 2006 Curtin – Monash Accident Research Centre www.c-marc.curtin.edu.au www.c- C-MARC Australian Cities While all developed economies are challenged, in Australia impacts are greater… Curtin – Monash Accident Research Centre www.c-marc.curtin.edu.au www.c-
  • 4. C-MARC Perth’s Transport Future?  B 2020 for Perth it i estimated1 th t By f P th is ti t d that – population will increase by 13%; – road freight transport will increase by 34%; – traffic delays will increase by 28%; – congestion costs will rise by 69% to $1.2 billion per annum. $ p  More people die from transport emissions than th road crashes2 d h Sources: 1. stimating 1.Estimating Urban Traffic and Congestion Cost Trends for Australian Cities Bureau of Transport and Regional Economics, Working Paper 71, Canberra 2007 2. BTRE Report WP63: Health Impacts Of Transport Emissions In Australia: Economic Costs and Commonwealth Government Road Deaths Australia, 2008 Statistical Summary Curtin – Monash Accident Research Centre www.c-marc.curtin.edu.au www.c- C-MARC City Transport Performance 290% 260% Our best transport planning and policy gets us HERE! 190% 90% Australian City Heavy Vehicle Congestion Cost g 40% Increases 1990 - 2005: 53% 2005 to 2020: 118% Source: from BITRE WP71 data 1990 to 2020: 234% Curtin – Monash Accident Research Centre www.c-marc.curtin.edu.au www.c-
  • 5. C-MARC National Rail Freight Performance DARWIN Rail Share of Land KATHERINE Freight Transport TENNANT CREEK 90%+ ALICE SPRINGS 80%+ BRISBANE 80%+ TARCOOLA 21% KALGOORLIE BROKEN HILL 5% PERTH SYDNEY ADELAIDE 5% MELBOURNE 7% Source: from ARA and BITRE data Curtin – Monash Accident Research Centre www.c-marc.curtin.edu.au www.c- C-MARC Passenger Transport Average Growth 2000-2004 Outlook Passenger Rail: 1.6% Private road vehicles: 2.3% Changes in Urban Passenger Transport Average Growth 2004-2008 (increase from 2000, 2001‐2004 trend shown dotted) Passenger Rail: 5.1% 30% Private road vehicles: 0.3% What are the reason for these changes? - fuel price? - congestion? - population increase? 20% - inner city living? - ‘green’ choices? Passenger Rail Passenger Rail Private road  Private road  vehicles vehicles 10% Transport planning and policy is based on these forecasts. 0% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Source: from BITRE IS31 data Curtin – Monash Accident Research Centre www.c-marc.curtin.edu.au www.c-
  • 6. C-MARC Land Transport Emissions Ggrams Australian Land Transport Emissions Forecast CO2 80000 There is more freight carried by rail, than road. Passenger & Freight Rail Road Freight Road Passenger 40000 0 1990 2000 2010 2020 Year Source: BTRE 2005 Curtin – Monash Accident Research Centre www.c-marc.curtin.edu.au www.c- C-MARC Land Transport Emissions % change Australian Land Transport Emissions Forecast from 1990 Articulated trucks 150% Light Commercial Vehicles Rigid and other trucks Passenger Passenger and Freight Rail 100% 50% 0% 1990 2000 2010 2020 Year Curtin – Monash Accident Research Centre www.c-marc.curtin.edu.au www.c-
  • 7. C-MARC The Future of Transport Emissions Australian Transport Emissions Forecast Ggrams CO 2 Aviation 222Mt Maritime (2050) 200000 Rail (non electric) Motor Vehicles 2050 Total Australian Emissions Target g 145Mt (2050) 100000 75Mt (2000) If we continue what we’ve done in the past, by 2050 transport will contribute more than 2/3 of the total Australian emissions target Source: BTRE 2005 forecast, extrapolated 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Ye ar Curtin – Monash Accident Research Centre www.c-marc.curtin.edu.au www.c- C-MARC Our Current Transport  Australian transport fuel use, emissions and transport infrastructure are amongst the highest per capita in the world  Nearly 1500 people die on our roads and another 30,000 are injured and road crashes cost over $29.6 billion annually  Traffic congestion in cities costs more than $10 billion annually  Transport emissions are responsible annually for: p p y – the deaths of over 1500 people – over 4,500 cases of asthma and other sickness (but could be 40% higher) – cost of death and sickness by transport emissions exceeds $2.3 billion annually  Personal transport times and costs are increasing as a proportion of available time and disposable income, contributing to family pressure and other social degradation  There has been no significant move towards more sustainable modes of transport, until the last four years  F l usage of passenger cars h Fuel f have not d t decreased d Curtin – Monash Accident Research Centre www.c-marc.curtin.edu.au www.c-
  • 8. C-MARC Oil and Price Vulnerability 2001 2006 Source: Vulnerability Assessment for Mortgage, Petrol & Inflation Risks & Expenditure, Dodson & Sipe, Griffith Uni, 2008 Curtin – Monash Accident Research Centre www.c-marc.curtin.edu.au www.c- C-MARC City Area Affects T Cit A Aff t Transport U t Use 100 Transport Energy 80 60 40 20 0 0 200 400 600 800 Ar e a 1000 City Area Source: Cities, Area and Transport Energy. B Hughes et al, 26th ATRF, October 2003 Curtin – Monash Accident Research Centre www.c-marc.curtin.edu.au www.c-
  • 9. C-MARC  City Area is a major determinant of transport  transport energy  car use  transport emissions  In principle, if population increases within urban boundaries no extra travel occurs boundaries,  Australians are in love with their cars, , but they are more in love with their own land Curtin – Monash Accident Research Centre www.c-marc.curtin.edu.au www.c- C-MARC Our Transport Future? Curtin – Monash Accident Research Centre www.c-marc.curtin.edu.au www.c-
  • 10. C-MARC Our Transport Future  By 2050 transport emissions will comprise more than 66% of Australia’s entire greenhouse gas emissions target  Transport congestion costs are increasing at a faster rate than traffic is increasing  heavy vehicle transport congestion costs will increase by an additional 100%  traffic congestion in cities will cost $20-30 billion annually by 2020  Road trauma will deteriorate  road deaths are not decreasing  serious injuries caused by road crashes is rising  deaths caused by articulated vehicles is increasing,  serious injuries caused by articulated vehicles is not decreasing  Other factors such as health effects, transport costs and travel time are certain to increase Curtin – Monash Accident Research Centre www.c-marc.curtin.edu.au www.c- C-MARC Rail Deterioration R il D t i ti Track Locomotive Age Cumulative Rolling Stock Number Total Diesel - locomotives, wagons 100% Electric Signalling 500 Average  Age 80% Average  Aus  > 30  Information Age USA 8  Years 60% Years - data, methods, 250 40% analysis, research l i h 20% Organisational Capacity 0 less than 6 to 10 11 to 15 16 to 20 21 to 25 26 to 30 more 0% - government & railways 5 years years years years years years than 30 years - staff skill & numbers Curtin – Monash Accident Research Centre www.c-marc.curtin.edu.au www.c-
  • 11. C-MARC Rail’s Energy and Environmental Advantage g Freight Transport Energy Efficiency Passenger Transport Energy Intensity Source: Final Garnaut Report, 2008 Source: ARA Industry Report 2007 Curtin – Monash Accident Research Centre www.c-marc.curtin.edu.au www.c- C-MARC Rail Benefits  Passenger and freight rail provides a numerous benefits to the Australian community, business and the environment including: – supporting regional communities – reducing community health effects – minimising environmental consequences – reducing the road toll by reducing crashes – limiting local government road maintenance – limiting road investment demands on Treasuries – improving international competitiveness for agriculture – reducing road infrastructure costs for state government road authorities – maintaining robust transport systems to suit a variety of futures, including reduced oil availability.  A efficient, effective, safe t An ffi i t ff ti f transport system i required t meet A t li ' short and t t is i d to t Australia's h t d long term needs  Compared with historical practice, passenger and freight rail must take a much larger proportion of land transport in Australia  To do so requires many and diverse industry and government activities at substantially higher levels than have occurred previously  However, rail transport is not for its own sake and must be justified against , p j g alternatives Curtin – Monash Accident Research Centre www.c-marc.curtin.edu.au www.c-
  • 12. C-MARC Benefits from Rail Investment  Annual 3.8 to 6.2 Mt CO2-e emissions reductions  11% lower transport emissions by 2030  Total benefits $27.4 41.7b $27 4 to 41 7b (NPV 2010 -2020) Source: Transforming Rail: A Key Element in Australia’s Low Pollution Future CRC for Rail Innovation 2009 Curtin – Monash Accident Research Centre www.c-marc.curtin.edu.au www.c- C-MARC There is nothing a Government hates more than to be well-informed; well informed; for it makes the process of arriving at decisions much more complicated and difficult. Keynes Curtin – Monash Accident Research Centre www.c-marc.curtin.edu.au www.c-
  • 13. C-MARC Climate Change Management Climate Change Mitigation Activity Impact on Systems Responses Government Networks Government policy Business Operations Business practice Community Demand User behaviour Adaptation Curtin – Monash Accident Research Centre www.c-marc.curtin.edu.au www.c- C-MARC Climate Change Management Climate Change Activity Impact on Systems Responses Government Networks Government policy Business Operations Business practice Community Demand User behaviour Curtin – Monash Accident Research Centre www.c-marc.curtin.edu.au www.c-
  • 14. C-MARC Transport and the Carbon Economy  Travel / Transport less  Burn less carbon  more efficient transport & modes  more efficient vehicles  more efficient energy sources Curtin – Monash Accident Research Centre www.c-marc.curtin.edu.au www.c- C-MARC Market Issues of an Emissions Trading Scheme g  Market principles  Market failures  Poor information  Natural monopoly E t Externalities liti  Social objectives (eg income distribution or service quality) So, other strong policies are needed to complement the Emissions Trading Scheme CRC f R il I for Rail Innovation, 2009 ti Emissions trading on its own does not work; it needs other actions Allan Jones - CEO, London Climate Change Agency Curtin – Monash Accident Research Centre www.c-marc.curtin.edu.au www.c-
  • 15. C-MARC Transport Emissions Market Distortions  Car driver's costs will not change, but rail public transport costs will increase  Road freight charges will not change, but rail freight costs will increase  ETS charges are not market linked to public transport - pricing (fares) which may be constrained by political choices and economic regulation - infrastructure charges and provision (ie users pay for infrastructure but don't have choices about where improvements are made)  Car owners costs are discounted by tax rebates or payments by others (business)  The general community has responded to the market by purchasing small cars, while government (and business to a lesser extent) has not. In other words governments are not responding to the market.  Businesses will transfer their increased costs to consumers who have no influence over business costs ("Take it or leave it"). So business does not always have much incentive to reduce emissions costs. Governments have even less management incentive  Commercial drivers are often distant from the usage costs. So a truck or LCV driver can drive in a very fuel inefficient manner and receive no penalty so there is no incentive to change  Car and truck ET charges are rebated, but freight and passenger railways pay full costs  Road freight pricing is flawed  Road pricing not market linked to infrastructure supply Curtin – Monash Accident Research Centre www.c-marc.curtin.edu.au www.c- C-MARC Emissions Adaptation and Transport Governments have a major role to play in lowering the economic costs of adjustment to higher oil prices, an emissions price and population growth, through planning for more compact urban forms and rail and public transport. p p Mode shift may account for a quarter of emissions y q reductions in urban passenger transport, lowering the cost of transition and delivering multiple benefits to the community. (Professor Ross Garnaut, Final Report Sept 2008) Garnaut Report, Curtin – Monash Accident Research Centre www.c-marc.curtin.edu.au www.c-
  • 16. C-MARC Government Objectives  A national rail freight network development of our rail networks so that p more freight can be moved by rail  Transforming our cities increasing public transport capacity in our cities and making better use of existing transport infrastructure (Infrastructure Australia, May 2009) Curtin – Monash Accident Research Centre www.c-marc.curtin.edu.au www.c- C-MARC Where is A t li T Wh i Australian Transport t Going? g  Performance Criteria C it i  Capacity / utilisation tili ti  Speed  Safety Curtin – Monash Accident Research Centre www.c-marc.curtin.edu.au www.c-
  • 17. C-MARC Policy Tool Selection Engineers Economists Regulators Desirable? Necessary? Valuable? Sufficient? Integrated, complementary or conflicting? Are there better alternatives? Curtin – Monash Accident Research Centre www.c-marc.curtin.edu.au www.c- C-MARC Believing as I do, … that market forces deliver the lowest cost and most effective solution g , to economic challenges,... So what about:  Government infrastructure fundingg  regulation  subsidies  information, education and marketing  research, research training and innovation Curtin – Monash Accident Research Centre www.c-marc.curtin.edu.au www.c-
  • 18. C-MARC A New Planning Paradigm Current Perspective New Planning Paradigm • microanalysis • strategic • short term • holistic • narrow focused • long term How do we • detailed / How do we • broad improve provide fragmented what we’ve •i t integrated t d what we • historical got? • multifaceted need? • quantitative • future oriented • separate mode view t d i • qualitative & quantitative • infrastructure solutions • customer view • commodity view • logistics chain analysis g y • incremental & evolutionary • quantum change & • environmental & social revolutionary benefits largely ignored g y g • environmental & social benefits described Curtin – Monash Accident Research Centre www.c-marc.curtin.edu.au www.c- C-MARC “the mystery of Government is not how it works, works but how to make it stop”. stop P.J. O’Rourke Curtin – Monash Accident Research Centre www.c-marc.curtin.edu.au www.c-
  • 19. C-MARC Government Weaknesses p Leadership  No major policy improvements since truck charging and rail commercialisation in 1990’s Policy, Strategy and Pl P li St t d Planning i  Commonwealth Major Cities Unit  WA grain rail reform Co-operation  eg State - Commonwealth State v State Commonwealth, Research Capability  Skills, knowledge and experience  D t and i f Data d information ti  Number of people Curtin – Monash Accident Research Centre www.c-marc.curtin.edu.au www.c- C-MARC Rail Industry Weaknesses Leadership  eg continuous reorganisation Policy Strategy and Planning Policy,  eg typical 4 year business outlook Capability  eg transport economists Research Co operation Co-operation  eg national working rules Curtin – Monash Accident Research Centre www.c-marc.curtin.edu.au www.c-
  • 20. C-MARC Economic Opportunities Further investment Incentives & taxation reform Reducing regulatory burden Legislation Curtin – Monash Accident Research Centre www.c-marc.curtin.edu.au www.c- C-MARC Transport Economics Research for Treasury  FBT reform  eliminate perverse incentives to drive further  Charge for cars for congestion  Reform truck charges  Improve accuracy (eg road use damage relationship)  Include congestion  Eliminate undercharging of heavily used vehicles  Include unpriced externalities Source: A Conceptual Framework for the Reform of Taxes Related to Roads and Transport, Clarke and Prentice, Prepared for the Treasury, Canberra, June 2009 Curtin – Monash Accident Research Centre www.c-marc.curtin.edu.au www.c-
  • 21. C-MARC Canberra’s View of WA A cash cow Doesn’t understand Much greater challenges on East Coast  Economic (eg fiscal limitations)  Transport pressures (demand, performance, consequences, asset age, etc)  Geographic challenges (topography, close towns, sandstone, etc)  Political (sensitivity and size) Curtin – Monash Accident Research Centre www.c-marc.curtin.edu.au www.c- C-MARC Personal Perspectives WA is doing very well  economically  transport policy, planning & practice Don’t believe all the advocacy  (where's the money?) ( y ) Hyperactive policy  Engineers Make it Happen Curtin – Monash Accident Research Centre www.c-marc.curtin.edu.au www.c-
  • 22. C-MARC Transport Safety Future? Upward Pressures Downward Influences  transport demand p  vehicle safety y  vehicle power  infrastructure quality  driver attitudes  safety awareness y  treatment costs Uncertainties  diminishing returns g  congestion  enforcement Curtin – Monash Accident Research Centre www.c-marc.curtin.edu.au www.c- C-MARC Transport Safety Policy 'Externality' assessment 'E t lit ' t Historical analysis Incident investigations No recent reform Micro-policy perspective, Mi li ti not mainstream policy Exceptions  WA 'Towards Zero' Towards Zero Curtin – Monash Accident Research Centre www.c-marc.curtin.edu.au www.c-
  • 23. C-MARC C-MARC Multi-disciplined Strong analytical base Independent Multimodal Curtin – Monash Accident Research Centre www.c-marc.curtin.edu.au www.c- C-MARC Curtin- Curtin-Monash Accident Research Centre School f P bli H lth S h l of Public Health, Curtin University of Technology GPO Box U1987, PERTH 6845, Western Australia Ph: (08) 9266 9591 email: Brett.Hughes@curtin.edu.au See www.c-marc.curtin.edu.au for more information Curtin – Monash Accident Research Centre www.c-marc.curtin.edu.au www.c-

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