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    Infrastructure And Sustainability By Peter Newman Infrastructure And Sustainability By Peter Newman Presentation Transcript

    • Infrastructure and Sustainability: The next big agenda By Peter Newman Professor of Sustainability Curtin University
    • Infrastructure Australia • Infrastructure Australia Act, 2008. April • Independent advice to Federal Government  and to COAG. Advice... • Policy, regulation and investment options to  improve infrastructure. • ‘Will consult widely’.
    • Infrastructure Australia • Board of 12 from across Australia, with Sir Rod  Eddington Chair. • IA and the Infrastructure Co‐ordinator  (Michael Deegan, ex NSW DGT) will be based  in Sydney with the Major Cities Unit.  • Part of DITRDLG....
    • Infrastructure Australia • National Infrastructure Audit – by Dec 2008. • Infrastructure Priority List – by March 2009. • National PPP Guidelines – by October 2008.  • Building Australia Fund $20 billion.
    • IA and Sustainability • ‘review...project appraisal, planning and  approvals processes...’ from DITRDLG Website  on IA. • ‘to provide advice on infrastructure policy  issues arising from climate change.’ from IA  Act. • ‘Rigour’ in how priorities are set....
    • Political support.... ‘Sustainability and climate change will be  important considerations in any IA work.’ Anthony Albanese, Minister for Infrastructure,  in June at launch of IA. 
    • What will this mean in practice?
    • Political support for cities and public  transport.... ‘Better public transport is part of the answer  to soaring petrol prices’, Prime Minister Kevin  Rudd says. ‘Hasn't the time come for some  decent public transport systems, invested in  by the national government across our major  cities.’ June 6th, 2008, Channel 9.
    • Even Ralph Swan.... ‘There is much much more we need to do for  energy efficiency and public transport...’ And Greg Hunt...  ‘...fixing up the public transport blackspots  across Australia...’ Lateline July 16th, 2008
    • Arctic sea ice extent 1978‐2007 in millions of km2 (National Snow and Ice Data Center
    • ETS.... • Will add around 10 c/liter to fuel at $40/T, IEA  predict $38 to $110.  • Government will refund – how will they tell  what is due to ETS and what is due to peak  oil?
    • Peak oil? ‘A growing number of oil‐industry chieftains  are endorsing an idea long deemed fringe:  The world is approaching a practical limit to  the number of barrels of crude oil that can  be pumped every day.’ Russell Gold and Ann Davis Wall Street Journal, November 19th, 2007
    • Production cycle of an oil field
    • The Hubbert Peak Sci Amer 1971
    • 18
    • Long term oil prices Recent Movements Era of Cheap Oil 20
    • 60 Dema nd 50 Electric Power 40 Buildin gs Industr 30 y 20 1 0 Gasoline Diesel } Natural Gas Transport 0 Jet Fuel Heating Oil Petrochemicals } Oil 1930 1 955 1 980 2005 2030 F 2.3 H ww u o an n ral g &h wth ig o e se il d atu as o is m ch g as th p inp d ctio ay an e ey eak ro u n
    • ABARE's oil price forecasts have proven to be systematically  low Actual price 120 100 WTI (US$/barrel) March 2008 80 prediction 60 March 2007 prediction 40 March 2006 20 prediction 0 March 2005 prediction 30 9/2 1 30 9/2 2 30 9/2 3 30 9/2 4 30 9/2 5 30 9/2 6 30 9/2 7 30 9/2 8 30 9/2 9 9/ 0 11 / 0 00 / 0 00 / 0 00 / 0 00 / 0 00 / 0 00 / 0 00 / 0 00 / 0 00 / 0 01 March 2004 20 30 9/2 prediction /0 30 March 2003 Economists' forecasts published Nov 2005   Prof Tony Owen, UNSW, now at Curtin $35/barrel in a couple of years Nobel Economics winner, Vernon Smith (at UNSW)  $15/barrel in the near future 22
    • Containers  tripled in price  since 2000  and will  double again  if $200/bl.
    • Have to reduce 50% by 2050... • Either by reducing demand due to climate  change governance.... • Or by supply reductions that are going to  happen anyway. 
    • Gas  vulnerability
    • Sustainability is the next big economic  opportunity...
    • Treasure  Island Eco‐City 
    • Even the ‘Governator’ is demanding  sustainability...
    • Rizhao Solar City, China
    • Power Production as Urban Design Vastra Hamnen, Malmö
    • Beddington Zero‐Energy Development, London
    • New 6 star building for Macquarie Bank  by Multiplex
    • CH2 the first 6 star building… Melbourne  City Council, government leadership at its best... Carbon neutral, mining the sewer for water recycling,  healthy natural lighting, local materials...
    • 140 William St, the trend setter in  Perth…
    • We can do it with commercial  buildings...  But for settlements we need  infrastructure and planning. 
    • What do we need to do to be more  sustainable and resilient in our  settlements? 1. Build transit – with PPP’s, TOD, POD and  GOD... 2. Renewables and electric vehicles  partnership. 3. Eco‐villages on the fringe. 4. Greening the Greyfields. 5. CNG, airships, telepresence... 6. Indigenous roads program.
    • 1. Build transit – with PPP’s, TOD, POD  and GOD
    • US car dependent cities dying from  the outside in... • Wealthy eco‐enclaves surrounded by Mad  Max suburbs… • Highly probable.
    • Code Red for outer areas...Sydney Annual Vehicle Km per Household, 2004 Outer suburbs  residents,  particularly  those away from  rail lines, drive  much more than  inner suburbs  residents.  2.3 – 7.6 7.6 – 10.1 10.1 – 12.6 12.6 – 15.0 15.0 – 18.4 18.4 – 24.5 24.5 – 39.0 40
    • Opening of new Southern Railway 90% approval ratings and already paid off
    • New Southern Rail....av speed 90 kph;  max speed 130 kph.  Revived rail: j to wk 5% to 10% in 10 yrs; 
    • Perth journey to work 2001‐2006 • Cars 13% increase • Public transport 33% (trains 48%) • Walking 41% • Biking 21% • Pop 9% Sth Rail to continue the  growth – 50,000 per day...
    • Next phase for Perth? 
    • Chatswood in Sydney built new station as  part of a ‘Value Transfer PPP’...
    • Why cant we generate a PPP for light  rail using value transfer...?
    • TOD, POD and GOD...
    • Vancouver  TODs on  Skytrain
    • Portland led the way in America
    • Orinoco Station – first new city in  the suburbs
    • • People living in TODs have 50% less car use  and save 20% of their household income  due to one less car. • Value retained in down times and good in  up times.  State Center TOD,  PB Placemaking
    • Australian Cities – all want TODs All strategic plans based on: • Sustainability and overcoming car  dependence. • Centres and corridors. • Transit over highways. THIS IS THE INNOVATIVE APPROACH TO CITIES
    • Pedestrian Oriented Development
    • Jan Gehl the walkability magician...working for  City of Perth and CUSP,  Oct 2008
    • Velib Paris 20,000 bikes at 1450 locations,  370 kms cycle lanes.
    • TRAVEL SMART - Creating a more resilient transport culture.... • Developed from German Werner Brog, applied first in Perth, then UK now US..... • Individualised marketing based on direct intervention with householders receiving educational materials on alternatives to the car. • Bikers and bus drivers become eco- coaches...
    • Green Oriented Development   Kogarah ‐ Green TOD
    • Water Sensitive Urban Design
    • Perth 20 TODs… eg Esplanade  Station
    • New TOD for  central Perth...  Or is it Dubai.
    • Subiaco TOD – ‘Better Cities’ at its best.
    • Plan for Mandurah City Centre
    • Can we do 50% to 80% by 2050? Yes if we do new transit technology, and new  land use... At the same time.
    • Eg building transit can lead to  exponential declines in car use...  PUBLIC TRANSPORT PASSENGER KILOMETRES PER CAPITA VERSUS CAR PASSENGER KILOMETRES PER CAPITA Lifestyles and city  30,000 form change with  25,000 y = -4576Ln(x) + 40753 it... 2 20,000 R = 0.4973 15,000 10,000 5,000 - 0.0 2000.0 4000.0 6000.0 8000.0 Annual per capita public transport passenger kilometres per capita
    • What if Perth could triple its transit? • Transit going from 640 pass kms per person to  2000 (2‐3%/yr) would reduce car use from  13,500 pass kms per person to 6000.  • 7,500 pass kms lost for gain of 1360 pass kms on transit (5 to 1)....56% less car use!  • How does this happen? Transit Leverage….  Trip chaining, one less car, move house or  job… land use changes. 
    • Key to transit leverage is space saved...
    • Transit (and walking) helps you  reclaim urban space… Freeways 2,500 per lane/hr Busways 5‐8,000 per lane LRT 10‐20,000 per lane Train 50,000 per lane.
    • 2. Renewables and electric vehicles  partnership
    • CETO  Wave  Power
    • PV Solar growing at 40% per year
    • Roof mounted wind systems eg Windpods
    • How do you store renewables?
    • Link renewables into a Smart Grid  and store in electric vehicles – V2G (Li‐Ion batteries)
    • Renewables competitive now with peak  power;  Two way flow with electric vehicles provides  the breakthrough for a resilient renewably‐ powered grid.  Google campus demonstration .... and North Port Quay. 
    • Carbon‐free development based  on renewables, Smart Grid and  electric vehicles.
    • 4. Eco‐villages colonising the fringe.
    • Ecovillages can be.... • Built with its own water, power, sewerage  infrastructure, • Be relatively self sufficient in economy and  transport • Provide the social support in a village context  many are looking for. Eco‐villages growing rapidly....
    • 5. Greening the Greyfields ‐ in middle suburbs... • 1950s and 60s suburbs in decline; • Retrofitting houses for green technology –energy  efficiency and PV‐electric vehicle; • Land assembly to enable new houses such as  aged and young apartments around transit; • Green infrastructure such as underground power,  smart grids, water sensitive urban design... • Better parks and services...
    • Imagine the Possibilities Transformation of a city… Photo Series: UrbanAdvantage
    • 6. CNG, airships, telepresence...
    • Telepresence...live HD
    • Airships use 1/10th the fuel... Good for remote freight and  ecotourism
    • Natural Gas in Vehicles • Only option for heavy vehicles; CNG buses  have shown how to do it. Australian technology used to  convert Mumbai and Chenai buses. • Australia has 77% of its population on natural  gas distribution system. • Can convert biomass to natural gas. • Leads into Hydrogen economy. 
    • Diesel‐free Pilbara?
    • 6. Indigenous roads program Remote area sustainability needs good roads
    • Can normalisation mean  Indigenous mgt of roads?
    • Bush buses for improved access..?
    • Indigenous infrastructure for  Indigenous work...
    • What do we need? • Imagination, creativity, innovation... • Partnerships...