Future web-trends

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Future web-trends

  1. 1. #Matthew Bucklandwww.matthewbuckland.comGM: New Media, M&G Onlinefuture web trendsinnovation series 2007 with jimmy walesIMG SRC: Flickr
  2. 2. #the thing aboutpredictions...IMG SRC: Flickr
  3. 3. #"Computers in the futuremay weigh no more than1.5 tons."Popular Mechanics, forecasting the relentlessmarch of science, 1949
  4. 4. #"I think there is a worldmarket for maybe fivecomputers."Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943
  5. 5. #"640K ought to be enoughfor anybody."Bill Gates, 1981 apocryphal
  6. 6. #"There is no reason anyonewould want a computer intheir home."Ken Olson, president, chairman and founder ofDigital Equipment Corp., 1977
  7. 7. # internetconnectivityDirt cheap, lightening fast & “always on” internetComputers light, dumb terminals: need net connection to workMost applications web-based for best efficiencyIMG SRC: Flickr
  8. 8. # all digital devices will beconnected & networkedFrom your car, radio, phone, fridge... “always on”An unconnected digital device will be a strange thingWiMax connected sunglasses with voice prompted HUD?
  9. 9. # rise of themobile internetRapid improvements in connectivity & screensMobile to be dominant platform for connecting to net worldwideJapan: happened already (mostly surf web through phones)Voice calls powered by internet & SMS/Texts -> IMCellphones electronic wallets & banks = main method of paymentCitizens vote for first time in elections via mobile phones?
  10. 10. # rise of individual& entrepreneurOpen source = unprecedented access to code & applicationsCheap to create business online & make own mediaTeenager in basement same opp. as worker in big companyEXAMPLE: New mobile operating system (Android)?
  11. 11. # strides against digitaldivideDeveloping world joins digital ecosystem via mobile phonesAlso become part of economy via cellphone walletMobile phones cheap & broadband ubiquitousIlliteracy issues overcome by video & audio streamsCreates new areas of collaboration and education
  12. 12. # almost no privacyon the webYour data will be out thereIt will be ok because everyone will be in the same boatSeeing already with soc. networking services like FB
  13. 13. # the rise of thevirtual universeVirtual worlds like Second life go mainstreamCome to fore as graphic cards & broadband improvePotentially a visual alternative to the world wide webStandards: different worlds connect to each other seamlesslyVirtual coup d’etat by SL citizens?Linden Labs cedes SL to democratically elected virtual govt
  14. 14. # information pollution &overloadNext big challenge is how to manage masses of informationPeople will complain about "digital fatigue“ & digital noiseFocus on developing filters & aggregators“Switch-off" holidays regularly prescribed by your doctorRise of anti-digital movements urging “get back to basics”In response to clutter, a second world wide web announced
  15. 15. # more googles& facebooksGoogle & Facebook finally get good competitionMicrosoft releases OS code and goes open sourceMS makes revenue by selling advertising & giving supportAdvertising is main bus. model (connecting sellers & buyers)Facebook becomes a virtual OS/desktop, with MS influence
  16. 16. #...and media?
  17. 17. # media distribution& productionAll media eventually delivered via internetHardly any specialist print, tv, radio media companies leftAll fully converged, broadcasting & publishing via the netMedia on many digital platformsMEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA
  18. 18. # fragmented mediaenvironmentNon-media players become de facto media companiesMedia world filled with new competitorsCellphone operators, handset makers -> media companiesVodacom stop aggregating, start producing own contentOperators already big media companies (Voda: 1,4m users)Battle between media & cellphone companies loomingMEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA
  19. 19. # now everyone is amedia playerBarrier to entry drops even more dramaticallyRise of the reader and the consumerReaders: publishers, broadcasters: competitors & collaboratorsSmall, converged media challenge media conglomeratesMEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA
  20. 20. # role of media changesAlso content aggregators, facilitatorsBusiness model: capture audience via all meansMedia companies look to own channels: deals for own phones?Content portals -> web applications & servicesSocial networks as well as content hubsMEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA
  21. 21. # is this theend of print?Books, newspapers magazines...Read on flexible digital boards, always connectedWebsites & digital newspapers become “same thing”Newspapers smaller & niched, but not extinctNewspapers become expensive, luxury itemsA lifestyle item: buying an “experience”, part of “offtime”MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA MEDIA
  22. 22. #IMG SRC: WANN
  23. 23. #...other developments
  24. 24. # other trends fornow & the futureSemantic web entrenchedArtificial intelligenceAttention economy in full swingSophisticated personalisation of contentLocation-based/mapping services common & mobileVirtualisation eg: Amazon’s EC2 & S3 servicesWeb 14.0???... ;-)SRC: Read Write/Web, Jaxon Rice, My blog
  25. 25. #Forget capitalism and the classstruggle... the digital revolution ischanging things far more dramaticallythan the hypemongers ever imagined...the move from a society dominated byprint and broadcast mass media to theage of interactivity is at least as dramaticas the move from feudalism to capitalism.Netocracy, by Jan Söderqvist and Alexander Bard (2001)IMG SRC: Flickr
  26. 26. #Driven by internet and mobilecommunications, networks are turninginto the major means of doing business...Simply put, networks will make the worldgo round. So controlling the networks ofthis world will soon count for more thancontrolling the capital.Netocracy, by Jan Söderqvist and Alexander Bard (2001)
  27. 27. #thank you & questionsalso available @www.slideshare.net/matthewbucklandcontact @matthewbuckland@gmail.com

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