Quantifying Environmental Impacts of Dietary Recommendations

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Quantifying Environmental Impacts of Dietary Recommendations

  1. 1. Quantifying Environmental Impacts of Diets
  2. 2. Global FoodSystemDietary GuidelinesFood SubsidyProgram
  3. 3. Crop UsesNature, Foley et al. 201136% Calorie production used for animalfeed
  4. 4. Million calories per hectare
  5. 5. foodfeedbiofuelsCaloriesdelivered topeopleCalories available in food systemCalories “lost”Maize~10 %conversionefficiency
  6. 6. Cassidyet al.Submitted
  7. 7. 59% Calories produced become food
  8. 8. Cassidyet al.Submitted67% Calorie production used for animalfeed
  9. 9. Cassidyet al.Submitted34% Calories produced become food
  10. 10. Source: FAO Food Balance Shee
  11. 11. What’s recommended?~0.7 grams / kilogram90 kilogram person (200 lbs)63 grams per day = 23 kilograms per yearDietary Reference Intakes: The Essential Guide toNutrient Requirements:
  12. 12. Source: FAO Food Balance Shee23 kg per person yr-1
  13. 13. Hyperpenelopereddit
  14. 14. Land RequirementsTons per grid-cellTons of maize
  15. 15. Vegetal vs. AnimalA.F. Bouwman et al. / Agricultural Systems 84 (2005) 121–153
  16. 16. Square meters per 100 grams producedLand Requirements
  17. 17. Water footprintsHoekstra et al, Water FootprintsHoekstra, A. Y. &Mekonnen, M. M. (2012) The water footprint of humaProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 109, 3232-3237
  18. 18. Greenhouse gas emissionsAgriculture accounts for 19%–29% of total globalanthropogenic GHG emissions.Of this, the production stage contributes 80%–86% ofemissions at the global levelVermeulen, S., Campbell, B. M., & Ingram, J. S. (2012). Climate Change aSystems. Annual Review of Environment and Resources, 37(1).
  19. 19. Greenhouse gas emissionsKg Nitrogen application per ton maize produced1% Nitrogen applied becomes N2O (according to IPCC)Nitrous Oxides (N2O) = 310x Global Warming potential CO2
  20. 20. Greenhouse gas emissionsEntericFermentationMethane (CH4) = 21x Global Warming potential of CO2
  21. 21. Greenhouse gas emissions1992 2008Image: NASA
  22. 22. Greenhouse gas emissionsGrams GHGs per100 grams produced
  23. 23. Source: FAO STATMeat = 15%30%14%14%13%7%5%6%4%
  24. 24. Meat = 44%26%44%
  25. 25. 29%Meat = 47%
  26. 26. Meat = 64%56%
  27. 27. How will guidelines impact environmental footprints?
  28. 28. Source: FAO Food Balance Shee23 kg per person yr-1
  29. 29. U.S. Guidelines diet shift123 kg perperson per year30 kgper personper year93kgs of fruits,veggies, pulsesand cereals(75% reduction meat)
  30. 30. Diet shiftsAverage US diet, 2008 75% reduction meat 75% reduction meat,no beef
  31. 31. Diet shiftsAverage US diet, 2008 2008 meatconsumption, no beef75% reduction meat 75% reduction meat,no beef
  32. 32. Nutrition Guidance in RealityDiscovery’s VitalityHealthy Food Benefit
  33. 33. DataPurchase weights of foods>240,000 participants
  34. 34. Sturm et al. 2013
  35. 35. • An increase in the ratio of fruit and vegetables to total foodexpenditure by 5.7% - 8.5% (dependent on subsidy);• and a decrease in the ratio of less desirable to total foodexpenditure by 5.6% - 7.2%Healthy Food Purchases
  36. 36. Preliminary Results of Purchase Weights
  37. 37. Preliminary Results of Purchase Weights• 16% decrease in the proportion of beef purchase weight;• 10% decrease in the proportion of pork purchase weight;• 5.4% increase in proportional vegetable purchases;• 8.8% increase in proportional fruit purchase weight;
  38. 38. • ~8 - 13% decrease in land requirements• ~7 - 12% decrease in water footprint• ~8 - 10% decrease in greenhouse gas emissionsHealthy Food PurchasesPreliminary Results of Purchase Weights
  39. 39. EarthStat.org
  40. 40. Thanks!@Cassidy_Emily (Twitter)

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