0
The next 5 years in Mobile* i.e. everything
‘Business as Usual’ is dead
Scenes at papal inaugurations 2005 versus 2013Nest Smart Meter App
Image via Ericsson
Image via Ericsson
Take note: we’re at 4 (8 is next,not 5)
A majority of your 2018 revenues is likely to comefrom products and services that don’t even exist today
8The End of ‘Protected Spaces’ is nearMediaTelecomBankingMoneyMedicalPharma
Mobile Broadband is a cash-cow shifter
Cloud Culture: Abundant...EverythingPhoto by incurable_hippie - http://flic.kr/p/4XtorH
Beware: “Managed Dissatisfaction” is endingReed Hastings, Netflix CEO on Arrested Development, House of Cards, and the Futu...
The Internet of Everything1 - 2 - 4 - 8 - 1 6 - 3 2 - 6 4 - 1 2 8Video Source: Cisco via Youtube
Soon: 1000s of smart little helper ‘agents’
Video Source: IBM Future Scenarios, Youtube14Video Source: Cisco via Youtubehttp://soulofstartrek.blogspot.ch/2012/01/ente...
‘Business as Usual’ is deadETA: 2017
Used to be Is (almost) Soon for someBeyond soonbut quite likelyMobility (R)Evolutions:Huge social, economic, ethical impli...
Expect a $250 Billion shift, globally
2015: ICT | Big Data | SoLoMo Intelligence everywhere
Most products become services
From ownership to access
Photo by 900hp - http://flic.kr/p/9MTJpfBeing humanin a ‘totally digital’ society
Massive Human - Machine /AI Interface (R)Evolution
Deep, real-time, contextual data ☯ Fast & ubiquitous connectivity☯ Location-aware services ☯ Powerful yet cheap mobile dev...
=Mobile Devices areour external brains
Total ConvergenceOnlineOfflineHumanMachineThingsEventsInformationData
Machine / Robot / AI Jobs versus Human Jobs023456890Today 2015 2020 2040Machines, Software Agents, AI, RobotsTrad. HumanON...
Paradigm-shifts on an unprecedented scale
Most of us already are or will becomeKnowledge | Creative | Connective-Workers...using real-time information and intellige...
Humarithms: emotional, fluid, organic ≠ Algorithms
Next: fabricated realities...?Realness will prevail
Brands: make sense not noise:)Image source: http://pinterest.com/cibbva/Image source http://itvtu.blogspot.ch/2012_08_01_a...
Locked LooseBusiness Models: the direction is clear!Liquid
Flexible. Resilient. Decentralized
Data is the new Oil (again:::)
If Data is the new Oil let’s hope we will do thingsdifferently, this time
The 3 spheres of data: shift towards anticipationVolunteered Observed Inferred
Personal Data. Granular Permissions. TimelyKnowledge. Precise Location Awareness. HighlyContextual. Totally Realtime = Pre...
38
The Future: Contextual Search (contextual everything:)
We are beingsearched...sought-out...foundMost technologies that we used to direct will startconducting themselves
Searchingfor somethingInformationseeking usi.e. we are ‘being searched’
Everythingbecomes:DynamicReal-timeSocialMobileLocalFluidPredictive
In order for any of this to work, we will need aGigantic Opt-in/www.brandnewmedia.co.uk/2012/02/29/the-joy-of-not-being-so...
We need to consider the social implications of IoTand IoE, Big Data, M2M, AI, Prediction technologies
Let’s not kill the golden goose
Photo by the justified sinner - http://flic.kr/p/djnXURDo we reallyneed more‘intelligentmarketing’just to createthe nextGene...
Attention Economy ☯ Intention EconomyVia Wikipedia: “Doc Searls coined the term in the Linux Journal: "The Intention Econo...
Yet we must retain places like this
49And we will certainly need seriously reliableWays to Opt-Out
“We’re at the level of infants in moral responsibility -but with the technological capability of adults”Nick Bostrom (Oxfo...
Faustian Bargains everywhere?
Photo by Zanthia - http://flic.kr/p/bpXtExA love-hate relationship between us and the users of our data?
5 Billion ‘Consumers’ will push back
From mousetraps to magnets
Summary & Key Take-Aways
Thanks for your time and attention!Visit GerdCloud.com to download this PDF(and many others incl. my free books)
MCA 2013 - Gerd Leonhard - Next five years in Mobile
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Transcript of "MCA 2013 - Gerd Leonhard - Next five years in Mobile"

  1. 1. The next 5 years in Mobile* i.e. everything
  2. 2. ‘Business as Usual’ is dead
  3. 3. Scenes at papal inaugurations 2005 versus 2013Nest Smart Meter App
  4. 4. Image via Ericsson
  5. 5. Image via Ericsson
  6. 6. Take note: we’re at 4 (8 is next,not 5)
  7. 7. A majority of your 2018 revenues is likely to comefrom products and services that don’t even exist today
  8. 8. 8The End of ‘Protected Spaces’ is nearMediaTelecomBankingMoneyMedicalPharma
  9. 9. Mobile Broadband is a cash-cow shifter
  10. 10. Cloud Culture: Abundant...EverythingPhoto by incurable_hippie - http://flic.kr/p/4XtorH
  11. 11. Beware: “Managed Dissatisfaction” is endingReed Hastings, Netflix CEO on Arrested Development, House of Cards, and the Future of Netflix: Movies + TV: GQ via Quartz.com“Hastings call this managed dissatisfaction. The traditional entertainmentecosystem is built on it, and it’s a totally artificial concept”The point of managed dissatisfaction is waiting. You’re supposed to wait for your show that comes on Wednesday at 8 p.m., waitfor the new season, see all the ads everywhere for the new season, talk to your friends at the office about how excited you are...”
  12. 12. The Internet of Everything1 - 2 - 4 - 8 - 1 6 - 3 2 - 6 4 - 1 2 8Video Source: Cisco via Youtube
  13. 13. Soon: 1000s of smart little helper ‘agents’
  14. 14. Video Source: IBM Future Scenarios, Youtube14Video Source: Cisco via Youtubehttp://soulofstartrek.blogspot.ch/2012/01/enterprise-d-in-hd-captains-log-next.html
  15. 15. ‘Business as Usual’ is deadETA: 2017
  16. 16. Used to be Is (almost) Soon for someBeyond soonbut quite likelyMobility (R)Evolutions:Huge social, economic, ethical implications
  17. 17. Expect a $250 Billion shift, globally
  18. 18. 2015: ICT | Big Data | SoLoMo Intelligence everywhere
  19. 19. Most products become services
  20. 20. From ownership to access
  21. 21. Photo by 900hp - http://flic.kr/p/9MTJpfBeing humanin a ‘totally digital’ society
  22. 22. Massive Human - Machine /AI Interface (R)Evolution
  23. 23. Deep, real-time, contextual data ☯ Fast & ubiquitous connectivity☯ Location-aware services ☯ Powerful yet cheap mobile devices☯ Cloud computing culture ☯ Video is the new text ☯ Social-everything☯ Ultra-smart electronic agents ☯ The Internet of Things / M2M
  24. 24. =Mobile Devices areour external brains
  25. 25. Total ConvergenceOnlineOfflineHumanMachineThingsEventsInformationData
  26. 26. Machine / Robot / AI Jobs versus Human Jobs023456890Today 2015 2020 2040Machines, Software Agents, AI, RobotsTrad. HumanONLY Human * supported by MachinesSource: Gerd Leonhard ProjectionTraditional human labor will shift to machines, dramatic rise of highly ie only-human work
  27. 27. Paradigm-shifts on an unprecedented scale
  28. 28. Most of us already are or will becomeKnowledge | Creative | Connective-Workers...using real-time information and intelligence supplied by an exponentiallygrowing digital network that will leverage the IoT / IoE and Smart Machines
  29. 29. Humarithms: emotional, fluid, organic ≠ Algorithms
  30. 30. Next: fabricated realities...?Realness will prevail
  31. 31. Brands: make sense not noise:)Image source: http://pinterest.com/cibbva/Image source http://itvtu.blogspot.ch/2012_08_01_archive.html
  32. 32. Locked LooseBusiness Models: the direction is clear!Liquid
  33. 33. Flexible. Resilient. Decentralized
  34. 34. Data is the new Oil (again:::)
  35. 35. If Data is the new Oil let’s hope we will do thingsdifferently, this time
  36. 36. The 3 spheres of data: shift towards anticipationVolunteered Observed Inferred
  37. 37. Personal Data. Granular Permissions. TimelyKnowledge. Precise Location Awareness. HighlyContextual. Totally Realtime = Predictive Powers.
  38. 38. 38
  39. 39. The Future: Contextual Search (contextual everything:)
  40. 40. We are beingsearched...sought-out...foundMost technologies that we used to direct will startconducting themselves
  41. 41. Searchingfor somethingInformationseeking usi.e. we are ‘being searched’
  42. 42. Everythingbecomes:DynamicReal-timeSocialMobileLocalFluidPredictive
  43. 43. In order for any of this to work, we will need aGigantic Opt-in/www.brandnewmedia.co.uk/2012/02/29/the-joy-of-not-being-sold-anything/
  44. 44. We need to consider the social implications of IoTand IoE, Big Data, M2M, AI, Prediction technologies
  45. 45. Let’s not kill the golden goose
  46. 46. Photo by the justified sinner - http://flic.kr/p/djnXURDo we reallyneed more‘intelligentmarketing’just to createthe nextGenerationof HumanConsumptionMachines...?
  47. 47. Attention Economy ☯ Intention EconomyVia Wikipedia: “Doc Searls coined the term in the Linux Journal: "The Intention Economy grows around buyers, not sellers. Itleverages the simple fact that buyers are the first source of money, and that they come ready-made. You dont needadvertising to make them" Despite the advancement internet businesses are still seller oriented.Searls gives an example of intention economy scenario:"A car rental customer should be able to say to the car rental market, Ill be skiing in Park City from March 20-25. I want torent a 4-wheel drive SUV. I belong to Avis Wizard, Budget FastBreak and Hertz 1 Club. I dont want to pay up front for gas orget any insurance. What can any of you companies do for me? — and have the sellers compete for the buyers business."
  48. 48. Yet we must retain places like this
  49. 49. 49And we will certainly need seriously reliableWays to Opt-Out
  50. 50. “We’re at the level of infants in moral responsibility -but with the technological capability of adults”Nick Bostrom (Oxford University)BBC News - How are humans going to become extinct?http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-22002530
  51. 51. Faustian Bargains everywhere?
  52. 52. Photo by Zanthia - http://flic.kr/p/bpXtExA love-hate relationship between us and the users of our data?
  53. 53. 5 Billion ‘Consumers’ will push back
  54. 54. From mousetraps to magnets
  55. 55. Summary & Key Take-Aways
  56. 56. Thanks for your time and attention!Visit GerdCloud.com to download this PDF(and many others incl. my free books)
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