Elton Sherwin
Executive Director
Carbon Zero Institute
Advocates for Zero,
Catalysts for Change
www.carbonzeroinstitute.or...
CO2 traps the Sun’s
heat and warms
the planet
Computer Models
If there are no surprises
• Bigger storms
• Rising oceans
• Longer droughts
• More heat waves
• Hotter tem...
Extracted CO2 History from Ice Cores
10,000 Years CO2
From Ice Cores
10,000 years of
Civilization
http://www.skepticalscience.com/co2-measurements-uncertainty....
CO2 Today
CO2 Emissions
Are Accelerating
1775
1975
450,000 Years of
Temperature and CO2
20 decades
4 decades
800,000 Years of CO2
Current situation is
• Extraordinary
• Alarming
9
Ocean is Acidifying
Coral Reefs Are in Serious Trouble
NOAA
Forecasts for 21st Century
More Warming Over Land and the Arctic
Models from Caldeira et al at 560 ppm CO2
0 2 4 6-6 -4 -2...
12
Could See Increases of Over 10 Degrees
Fahrenheit in Central Valley*
Source: 2009 California Climate Adaptation Strateg...
North Pole - 2007
North Pole
Ice Volume
2007
2012
If There Are No Surprises
• Bigger storms
• Rising oceans
• Longer droughts
• More heat waves
• Hotter temperatures
World-...
Surprise Events
Unpredictable & difficult to model
• South Pole
• Permafrost
• Methane
• Ocean
– Gulf stream
– Fisheries
•...
Effect on Ocean Currents
Hard to Predict
Ocean’s Conveyor is Driven by
a Cold Arctic
Image: Argonne
National Laboratory
Methane Burps
A Ticking Time Bomb
There are enormous
quantities of naturally
occurring greenhouse
gasses trapped in ice-li...
Picture: MSU.edu
400 Gigatons Of Methane Locked
In The Frozen Arctic Tundra
“The climate is nearing
tipping points.
Changes are beginning to
appear and there is a potential
for explosive changes, ef...
An Area the Size of Germany and
France Combined is Melting
Unprecedented
and
Irreversible
Ice Sheets Collapse
Consequences
are Huge
20+ Feet of
Ocean Rise
Image: Roger Braithwaite, University of Manchester (UK)
N...
Ocean Rise Estimates this Century
16 inches
3 feet
11 feet
EPA and National Research
Council Estimates
6 feet
SOURCE: Inundation data from Knowles, 2008. Additional salt pond elevation data by Siegel and Bachand, 2002.
Aerial imager...
SOURCE: Inundation data from Knowles, 2008. Additional salt pond elevation data by Siegel and Bachand, 2002.
Aerial imager...
SOURCE: Inundation data from Knowles, 2008. Additional salt pond elevation data by Siegel and Bachand, 2002.
Aerial imager...
Heat Waves in Los Angeles
Basin Will Be Much More
Frequent*
Image: Dan Steinberg, Associated Press
*“Emissions pathways, c...
It Is Not Just California
Many cities at risk
• Miami
• Key West
• Tampa
• New York
• Venice
• Amsterdam
In 150 years, students may study
New Orleans like Carthage:
A city that no longer exists
World’s Poor
Hard Hit
Move 17
million
people this
century?
The Planet Needs
Carbon Zero
Net zero emissions
Mid century
10,000 years of CO2
Stylized graph of CO2 levels over the past...
Why Zero?
• Because CO2 persists in the atmosphere and
acidifies the ocean for generations
• Because if we don’t get to ze...
Because Our Grandchildren Could
Inherit a Different World
Why Zero?
World-wide image (on the left) and models from Caldeir...
The Carbon Zero Institute
An Advocate for Zero
A Catalyst for Change
Net Zero
Mid Century
www.CarbonZeroInstitute.org
Appendix
CO2 Since Start of Industrial Revolution
Sea Level Tracks Temperature and CO2
Climate Update from CZI
Climate Update from CZI
Climate Update from CZI
Climate Update from CZI
Climate Update from CZI
Climate Update from CZI
Climate Update from CZI
Climate Update from CZI
Climate Update from CZI
Climate Update from CZI
Climate Update from CZI
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Climate Update from CZI

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This is a climate update from The Carbon Zero Institute.

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  • This is of course well stated for those who even come close to acceptance and those who 'get it.' These facts just break my heart. I think it helps to come from another angle with various audiences to actually effect a change in behavior. Most adults in the business world and government workers, politicians etc, still do not know their daily business models and strategic plans need to change and not emit greenhouse gases. They do not know what is causing this as it relates to them specifically. That's what we do with an e-learning platform. The 50 courses in our Sustainability Education Series are interactive and are for adult employees in business or in government who know little to nothing about sustainability planning procedures. If we ask them to learn about sexual harassment in the workplace, why not add green building methodologies, what to recycle, environmental and carbon accounting, conserving water resources, managing waste and social responsibility? The courses also satisfy the LEED 3.0 and 4.0 components for internal training for employees of employers/occupants who are seeking gaining additional points on projects looking at certification. A huge plus for your ongoing efforts. We have educated over 12,000.
    http://greeneducationonline.com

    There is still such a lack of suitable e-learning education tools to move boardrooms forward with sustainability and this information needs to be embedded into corporate and government training strategies. We need affiliates and employees to be part of the equation. They need to understand 'why' it is essential to be more socially responsible, to be held accountable for policy implementation, conserve water resources, manage waste so we in essence TRAIN THEM that these actions are what is causing this and action steps to change behaviors through internal education.
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  • This is an overview of the state of the climate. I rarely use this presentation, as it tends to leave audiences shell shocked. It is too much to absorb at once.
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Climate Update from CZI

  1. 1. Elton Sherwin Executive Director Carbon Zero Institute Advocates for Zero, Catalysts for Change www.carbonzeroinstitute.org esherwin@CarbonZeroInstitute.org Climate Update Image: Roger Braithwaite, University of Manchester (UK)
  2. 2. CO2 traps the Sun’s heat and warms the planet
  3. 3. Computer Models If there are no surprises • Bigger storms • Rising oceans • Longer droughts • More heat waves • Hotter temperatures – 8-10+ °F warmer in parts of California* – Impact animals, plants, skiers, wineries and agriculture*“Emissions pathways, climate change, and impacts on California,” Katharine Hayhoe, Christopher B. Field, Stephen H. Schneider and 17 coauthors, June 23, 2004, PNAS.
  4. 4. Extracted CO2 History from Ice Cores
  5. 5. 10,000 Years CO2 From Ice Cores 10,000 years of Civilization http://www.skepticalscience.com/co2-measurements-uncertainty.htm Birth of James Watt And Start of the Industrial Revolution
  6. 6. CO2 Today CO2 Emissions Are Accelerating 1775 1975 450,000 Years of Temperature and CO2 20 decades 4 decades
  7. 7. 800,000 Years of CO2 Current situation is • Extraordinary • Alarming
  8. 8. 9 Ocean is Acidifying Coral Reefs Are in Serious Trouble NOAA
  9. 9. Forecasts for 21st Century More Warming Over Land and the Arctic Models from Caldeira et al at 560 ppm CO2 0 2 4 6-6 -4 -2 ºC
  10. 10. 12 Could See Increases of Over 10 Degrees Fahrenheit in Central Valley* Source: 2009 California Climate Adaptation Strategy 10+ http://www.energy.ca.gov/2009publications/CNRA-1000-2009-027/CNRA-1000-2009-027-F.PDF *“Emissions pathways, climate change, and impacts on California,” Katharine Hayhoe, Christopher B. Field, Stephen H. Schneider and 17 coauthors, June 23, 2004, PNAS.
  11. 11. North Pole - 2007
  12. 12. North Pole Ice Volume 2007 2012
  13. 13. If There Are No Surprises • Bigger storms • Rising oceans • Longer droughts • More heat waves • Hotter temperatures World-wide image (on the left) and models from Caldeira et al at 560 ppm CO2
  14. 14. Surprise Events Unpredictable & difficult to model • South Pole • Permafrost • Methane • Ocean – Gulf stream – Fisheries • Monsoons • World’s food supply
  15. 15. Effect on Ocean Currents Hard to Predict Ocean’s Conveyor is Driven by a Cold Arctic Image: Argonne National Laboratory
  16. 16. Methane Burps A Ticking Time Bomb There are enormous quantities of naturally occurring greenhouse gasses trapped in ice-like structures in the cold northern muds and at the bottom of the seas. Published on 15 Dec 2004 by Baltimore Sun (Common Dreams) by John Atcheson Image courtesy of NASA
  17. 17. Picture: MSU.edu 400 Gigatons Of Methane Locked In The Frozen Arctic Tundra
  18. 18. “The climate is nearing tipping points. Changes are beginning to appear and there is a potential for explosive changes, effects that would be irreversible” James Hansen, Director of NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies The Observer, February 15, 2009,
  19. 19. An Area the Size of Germany and France Combined is Melting Unprecedented and Irreversible
  20. 20. Ice Sheets Collapse Consequences are Huge 20+ Feet of Ocean Rise Image: Roger Braithwaite, University of Manchester (UK) NSF Website and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)
  21. 21. Ocean Rise Estimates this Century 16 inches 3 feet 11 feet EPA and National Research Council Estimates 6 feet
  22. 22. SOURCE: Inundation data from Knowles, 2008. Additional salt pond elevation data by Siegel and Bachand, 2002. Aerial imagery is NAIP 2005 data. http://www.bcdc.ca.gov/planning/climate_change/climate_change.shtml 16 Inches of Sea Rise (blue) San Jose San Francisco Vallejo San Rafael Oakland
  23. 23. SOURCE: Inundation data from Knowles, 2008. Additional salt pond elevation data by Siegel and Bachand, 2002. Aerial imagery is NAIP 2005 data. BCDC.gov Foster City East Palo AltoMenlo Park 16 Inches of Sea Rise Silicon Valley
  24. 24. SOURCE: Inundation data from Knowles, 2008. Additional salt pond elevation data by Siegel and Bachand, 2002. Aerial imagery is NAIP 2005 data. BCDC.gov Moffett Field 237 all at risk
  25. 25. Heat Waves in Los Angeles Basin Will Be Much More Frequent* Image: Dan Steinberg, Associated Press *“Emissions pathways, climate change, and impacts on California” Christopher B. Field and 17 coauthors, June 23, 2004, PNAS `
  26. 26. It Is Not Just California
  27. 27. Many cities at risk • Miami • Key West • Tampa • New York • Venice • Amsterdam
  28. 28. In 150 years, students may study New Orleans like Carthage: A city that no longer exists
  29. 29. World’s Poor Hard Hit Move 17 million people this century?
  30. 30. The Planet Needs Carbon Zero Net zero emissions Mid century 10,000 years of CO2 Stylized graph of CO2 levels over the past 10,000 years from ice cores and measurements at Mauna Loa http://www.skepticalscience.com/are-humans-too-insignificant-to-affect-global-climate.html
  31. 31. Why Zero? • Because CO2 persists in the atmosphere and acidifies the ocean for generations • Because if we don’t get to zero we will create a different planet Ove Hoegh-Guldberg
  32. 32. Because Our Grandchildren Could Inherit a Different World Why Zero? World-wide image (on the left) and models from Caldeira et al at 560 ppm CO2 0 2 4 6-6 -4 -2 ºC
  33. 33. The Carbon Zero Institute An Advocate for Zero A Catalyst for Change Net Zero Mid Century www.CarbonZeroInstitute.org
  34. 34. Appendix
  35. 35. CO2 Since Start of Industrial Revolution
  36. 36. Sea Level Tracks Temperature and CO2

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