The Milk Story
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The Milk Story

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  • Milk is an excellent source of protein as well as 9 other essential nutrients, including vitamin-A, calcium and riboflavin, it’s one of our first foods as children and one of the first proteins those in emerging countries are able to access. With the growing population and increasing middle class, demand for milk is expected to grow by more than half to about 265 billion gallons globally in 2050. NOTE:If you want to convert to a tractor-trailer tanker load of milk, a tanker holds 5,095 gallons of milk. So for instance 2050, 265 billion gal of milk is 52 million truckloads a year, or 142,500 truck loads a day!
  • While milk production globally has been steadily increasing in recent years, it’s not keeping up with demand from population growth and the growing middle class. In fact, today we have 14% less milk available per person than we did 50 years ago – that’s the equivalent of going from having a glass of milk every day, to having to skip a glass 1 day a week.
  • And if the current milk productivitytrend continues, there’s going to be a gap -- A shortfall between the amount of milk produced and the amount consumers will need. In fact, we’re entering that gap today – and by the end of the decade we’ll be more than 7 billion gallons of milk short.
  • If we don’t bring the right innovations – improved practices and new products – to increase our productivity rates globally, 326 million people will not have access to milk in less than 7 years. That’s would be a population equivalent roughly the size of the United States without milk by the end of the decade. And by 2040, 832 million people won’t have access to milk. That’s more than 8 percent of the global population .
  • And this isn’t just an issue for developing countries. These were the store shelves in the Netherlands earlier this spring. Infant formula was limited to 4 tins per purchase, due to demand from China.
  • And the same store two weeks later. Purchases had been rationed to just 1 container. These types of food shortages in developed countries will only increase unless we start to make changes today.
  • So how do meet the demand and ensure sufficient access for everyone. We have a couple of options. Today, 264 million cows produce about 5,000 lbs of milk on average. If we continue on the path that we’re currently on today, we’ll have 303 million cows producing 5,851 pounds of milk. But, that means 832 million people won’t have milk or any form of dairy in their diet. If we increase productivity and efficiency by using innovation, we can actually freeze the environmental footprint of milk production and meet this demand with fewer cows globally. Creating access to innovation for all producers means just 237 million cows could produce 8,821 pounds annually.But, if we continue to see increasing regulations and restrictions on the use of innovative solutions that stalls production at today’s rates, we are going to need 378 million more cows to produce enough milk to meet the demand. And those cows are going to need land, feed, and water. Both options can help meet the growing milk demand, but we have to choose, and we have to choose soon.
  • Using innovation, we estimate the world would need 66 million fewer cows to meet anticipated 2050 demand, which would result in a savings of 747 million fewer tons of feed required, 388 million fewer acres of land, roughly the size of the country of Iran. It also means 618 billion fewer gallons of water consumed which is the equivalent to the household water use of the 11 largest cities in the US.
  • So which path do you choose?

The Milk Story The Milk Story Presentation Transcript

  • 167.7 192.7 221.6 265.0 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 2010 2020 2030 2050 BillionGallons Projected Demand Source: World Livestock Report 2011: Livestock in food security. FAO, Rome, 2011. pgs 11-12, 79 Milk Demand Increases 58% by 2050
  • Global Milk Availability & Recommended Intakes 279 239 450 731 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 1961 Production Per Capita 2010 Production Per Capita IDF RDI* US RDI ** GramsProductionperCapitaperDay Source: FAO, FAOSTAT, http://www.fao.org/corp/statistics/en/, Last accessed 25NOV12 *Note: Based on one 150 g serving of milk, one 150 g serving of yogurt, and one 15 g serving of cheese **Note: Based on USDA “3-A-Day” program 14% Decline compared to 1961
  • A Milk Gap Exists 7.3 16.8 20.3 15.4 0 5 10 15 20 25 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 BillionGallons 1Note: Projected trends for human population (FAO), cattle and buffalo population growth and yield/cow
  • 326 Million People Without Milk in 2020 326 712 832 616 4.3% 8.6% 9.4% 6.6% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 PercentofGlobalPopulation No.ofPeople(mill) No. of People Percent of Global Population
  • Translation: For all infant formula of Nutricia and Friso the following applies: Maximally 4 tins per person We unfortunately need to take this measure because of insufficient supply on the Dutch market. The cause of this is that the export of infant formula to China has increased tremendously We’re in the Gap Today: Infant Formula Shortage (The Netherlands Spring 2013)
  • Same text… Only, 4 has been changed into 1! We’re in the Gap Today: Infant Formula Shortage (The Netherlands 2 Weeks Later)
  • 4,997 5,851 8,821 4,997 264 303 237 378 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000 1961 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Milproduced(lbs) Historical Current Trend Freeze Env Footprint Freeze Yield @ 2010 No. of Milking Cows Current Trend3 Freeze Env Footprint5 Freeze Yield @ 20106 So How Do We Meet Demand? DRAFT – Internal Only Do Not Copy or Distribute Numberofcows(mil)
  • • Innovation  66 Million Fewer Cows Resource Savings Percent Savings Feed 747 million tons 25% Land 388 million acres 25% Water* 618 bill gallons 24% Resource Impact Note: Accounts for cow water consumption only. Does not account for additional savings from crop irrigation and sanitation.
  • Equivalent Annual Water Savings from Innovation in Dairy Production