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Stephen fuller final

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  • 1. Potomac Officers ClubPost-Sequestration SummitMay 14, 2013The Washington Area’s Post-Federally Dependent EconomyStephen S. Fuller, Ph.D.Dwight Schar Faculty Chair and University ProfessorDirector, Center for Regional AnalysisGeorge Mason University
  • 2. Federal Spending PatternsIn the Washington Area
  • 3. 2010 Structure of theGreater Washington EconomyLocal ServingActivities34.8%Non-LocalBusiness12.0 %TotalFederal39.8%Procurement19.1%Other Federal10.7 %Fed Wages & Salaries10.0%Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  • 4. 0102030405060708090Federal Procurement in theWashington Metro Area, 1980-2012$ BillionsTOTAL = $1,023.5 BillionSource: US Census, Consolidated Federal Funds Report$80.0 B$75.6 B
  • 5. Professional & Business ServicesWashington MSA-20-15-10-505101520253020022005JanAprJulOctJanAprJulOctJanAprJulOctJanAprJulOctJanAprJulOctJan(000s) Annual Data Annual Month over Year2008 2009 2010 2011 2012Tot 2012 = 702,300Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  • 6. 1502002503003504001950195519601965197019751980198519901995200020052010Federal Employment in theWashington Metro Area, 1950-2012000s EisenhowerKennedy –JohnsonNixon -FordCarter Reagan Bush 1 Clinton Bush 2- 5+ 74+ 35+ 17 0 -8.6- 37+ 24Obama+17.5Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  • 7. Federal GovernmentWashington MSA-20-15-10-505101520253020022005JanAprJulOctJanAprJulOctJanAprJulOctJanAprJulOctJanAprJulOctJan(000s) Annual Data Annual Month over Year2008 2009 2010 2011 2012Tot 2012 = 377,400Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  • 8. Summary for Federal Spending Trends in theWashington Metropolitan Area, 2010-2012• Federal Procurement Outlays declined 8.4%between FY 2010 and FY 2012.• Federal employment has declined sincepeaking in July 2010, losing 8,700 jobs or2.25%.• Federal payroll declined by 0.6% between FY2010 and FY 2011 and will continue to declineas the workforce shrinks and older workersretire and are replaced by younger workers.
  • 9. How Has Reduced FederalSpending Affected TheWashington Area Economy?
  • 10. Metro Area ComparisonsJob Change 2011-201215 Largest Metro Areas1831324040414244506164849999136-300 -100 100 300PhiladelphiaMinneapolisBostonSeattleDetroitPhoenixAtlantaMiamiSF-OaklandChicagoDallasLos AngelesHoustonNew York(000s)Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional AnalysisWASHINGTON
  • 11. 15 Largest Job MarketsJob Change: Mar 2012 – Mar 2013-101030507090110130(000s)Washington + 36,100Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  • 12. Annual Job ChangeWashington MSA, 2002-2013-80-60-40-20020406080100200220052008(000s)Annual Data Annual Month over Year2009 2010 2011 2012Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  • 13. Job Change by SectorMar 2012 – Mar 2013Washington MSA10-1-16-3211-299-37-20.0 -10.0 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0Transp. & Util.Wlse TradeManufacturingInformationFinancialOther ServicesConstructionLeisure & Hosp.Retail TradeState & Local GovtEduc & Health SvcsFederal Govt.Prof. & Bus. Svcs(000s) Total = 36,100Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  • 14. Job Change by SectorFeb 2013 – Mar 2013Washington MSA0000222723005-20 -10 0 10 20 30Transp. & Util.Wlse TradeManufacturingInformationFinancialOther ServicesConstructionLeisure & Hosp.Retail TradeState & Local GovtEduc & Health SvcsFederal Govt.Prof. & Bus. Svcs(000s) Total = 23,600Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  • 15. Job Change by SectorMar 2012 – Mar 2013District of Columbia000-100110-15-41-20 -10 0 10 20 30Transp. & Util.Wlse TradeManufacturingInformationFinancialOther ServicesConstructionLeisure & Hosp.Retail TradeState & Local GovtEduc & Health SvcsFederal Govt.Prof. & Bus. Svcs(000s) Total 2,000Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  • 16. Job Change by SectorMar 2012 – Mar 2013Suburban Maryland00-100025-152-12-20 -10 0 10 20 30Transp. & Util.Wlse TradeManufacturingInformationFinancialOther ServicesConstructionLeisure & Hosp.Retail TradeState & Local GovtEduc & Health SvcsFederal Govt.Prof. & Bus. Svcs(000s) Total 11,900Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  • 17. Job Change by SectorMar 2012 – Mar 2013Northern Virginia000-14-3-3328224-20 -10 0 10 20 30Transp. & Util.Wlse TradeManufacturingInformationFinancialOther ServicesConstructionLeisure & Hosp.Retail TradeState & Local GovtEduc & Health SvcsFederal Govt.Prof. & Bus. Svcs(000s) Total 17,900Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  • 18. 0246810128.3 – DC7.6 – U.S.6.4 – SMD5.2 – MSA4.0 - NVAUnemployment Rates in the WMSABy Sub-State Area, 2006-2013Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Region - Not Seasonally Adjusted, US – Seasonally Adjusted)
  • 19. Washington Area EconomicOutlook: 2012-2017
  • 20. Job Growth in the Washington AreaBy Sector, 2012-2017 (in thousands)Sector 2012 2017 Change PercentProf. & Bus. Ser. 697.4 841.2 143.8 20.6Federal Gov’t 380.4 358.4 - 22.0 - 5.8Education/Health 380.2 419.0 38.8 10.2S & L Gov’t 309.7 321.6 11.9 3.8Hospitality 276.8 285.0 8.2 3.0Retail Trade 254.1 266.6 12.5 4.9Other Services 182.8 185.3 2.5 1.4Financial Services 150.0 154.7 4.7 3.1Construction 146.4 201.8 55.4 37.8Information Ser. 80.6 87.6 7.0 8.7Other Sectors (3) 175.0 193.2 18.2 10.4Total Jobs 3,033.4 3,314.4 281.0 9.3
  • 21. Major Sources of Job Growth in theWashington Area , 2012-2017 (in thousands)Growth Sectors 2012 2017 Change PercentProf. & Bus. Ser. 697.4 841.2 143.8 20.6Education/Health 380.2 419.0 38.8 10.2Construction 146.4 201.8 55.4 37.8Sub-Totals 1,224.0 1,462.0 238.0 19.4% Total 40.4 44.1 84.7_________Totals 3,033.4 3,314.4 281.0 9.3Sources: IHS Global Insight; GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  • 22. Occupation Net New % of Total % ChangeBusiness and Financial 52,253 14.7 13.7Computer, Math and Sci 33,630 9.4 14.2Health Care (all occup.) 31,915 9.0 13.7Office Admin Support 30,334 8.5 6.3Sales & Related Occup. 29,246 8.2 7.0Personal Care Occup. 23,892 6.7 15.2Management Occupations 22,964 6.4 7.1Education & Training 21,642 6.1 10.6Totals 224,234 63.0 10.0Source: EMSI Inc., GMU Center for Regional AnalysisWashington Metropolitan Area:Major Sources of Net New Jobs2012-2017
  • 23. Employment Change in the WMSAby Sub-State Area (000s)2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017D.C. 10.5 14.1 5.6 7.3 8.7 9.7 7.9 5.7Sub. MD -6.5 4.4 4.8 13.6 16.8 20.7 18.5 15.2No. VA 8.7 17.4 18.0 24.5 30.5 39.1 36.8 26.1REGION 12.7 35.9 28.4 45.4 56.0 69.5 63.2 47.0Average Annual Change 1990-2010 = 36,000Source: BLS, IHS Global Insight Jan. 7 2013, GMU Center for Regional AnalysisNOTE: 2012 Total is the sum of sub-regions and does not agree with the Mar 18, 2013 published MSA total.
  • 24. -2-10123456720012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017%Source: GMU Center for Regional AnalysisEconomic Outlook (GRP), 2012-2017Washington Area and Sub-State Areas(Annual % Change)DCSMMSANV
  • 25. 2017 Structure of theGreater Washington EconomyLocal ServingActivities37.8%Non-LocalBusiness16.2 %TotalFederal29.2%Procurement12.0%Other Federal9.7 %Fed Wages & Salaries7.5 %Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis
  • 26. Thank YouQuestionscra.gmu.edu

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