Global Economic Outlook, 2024 - Scholaride Consulting
Changes in Spanish Employment Structure 1977-2013
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Detroit Industry, North Wall (Ford Plant at River Rouge). 1932-1933. Diego Rivera.
CHANGES IN THE STRUCTURE OF EMPLOYMENT IN THE LONG RUN: THE SPANISH CASE 1977-2013
José-Ignacio Antón & Rafael Muñoz de Bustillo
University of Salamanca (Spain)
2. Contents of the presentation
1.
Introduction
2.
Methodology
3.
Data
4.
Results
2
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1. Introduction
Background
Relevant literature focused on inequalities in developed countries.
Explanations based on market forces -technology, international trade, returns to education- (versus institutional features) that refers to ‘unaivodable’ labour market issues.
Relevant amount of literature focusing on employment polarisation (David Autor, Alan Manning, Erik Olin Wright, Eurofound…) across Economics, Sociology, Industrial Relations, etc.
Most studies suggesting polarisation and the technical change/routinisation hypothesis as the most likely explanation.
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1. Introduction
Aims of the paper
Exploring long-run trends with an uniform methodology to assess the extent and timing of polarisation.
Informative for the evolution of labour market inequalities Spain, with very bad databases before mid 90s.
Some light on some aspects of the polarisation debate (plausibility of the explanation).
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2. Methodology
The so-called ‘jobs approach’
Define the jobs: combination of an occupation (2-digit ISCO category) and a sector of activity (2-digit NACE).
Ranking (quintiles): rank the jobs according to earnings (or other variable proxying job quality) create quintiles taking a year as reference (this is not innocous).
Monitoring the changes: explore the pattern of changes, how they shape the employment structure and some features behind it.
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2. Methodology
Creation of a job matrix
Sector of activity (2 digits)
Act 1
Act 2
…
Act N
Occupation (2 digits)
Occ 1
Job 1
Job 2
…
Job N
Occ 2
Job N+1
…
…
Job 2·N
…
…
…
…
Occ K
Job (K-1)·N
…
…
Job K·N
Mean/median wage
An example
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1977
1985
Crisis & job destruction
Expansion & job growth
1991
1994
2008
2013
Crisis & job destruction
Expansion & job growth
Crisis & job destruction
Employment cycles
Occupation
Activity
National Classification of Occupations 1979
National Classification of Occupations 1994 (compatible with ISCO-88)
National Classification of Occupations 2011 (inspired by ISCO- 08)
National Classification of Economic Activities 1974 (equivalent to NACE)
National Classification of Economic Activities 1993 (equivalent to NACE rev. 1 and 1.1)
National Classification of Economic Activities 2009 (equivalent to NACE rev. 2)
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In sum, taking into account business cycles and breaks, we analyze
o
1977-1985 (job destruction)
o
1985-1991 (job growth)
o
1991-1992 (job destruction + break)
o
1992-1993 (job destruction + break)
o
1994-2008 (job growth)
o
2008-2010 (job destruction + break)
o
2011-2013 (job destruction)
Spanish Labour Force Survey
Basic Household Budget Survey 1990-1991
Wage Structure Survey 2006 + Survey of Living Conditions 2006
Wage Structure Survey 2010
Survey of Living Conditions 2009 & 2010
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4. Results
Overall patterns
Modernisation, de-primarisation, de-industrialisation.
The rise and fall of housing.
The rise of the Welfare State.
The polarising effects of crisis.
Other issues worth mentioning.
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4. Results
Advancing some preliminary results
Since the late 70s, modernisation of Spanish economy and labour market: de-primarisation, de-industrialisation, rise of the Welfare State, rise of temporary work, housing bubble and financial crisis, labour market crisis.
Overall, the overall pattern is upgrading and polarisation is only relevant in economic crisis.
If polarisation is associated to small segments and periods. Is it really so relevant?
Should we be more cautious about deus ex machina explanations?
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-600-400-2000Thousands of workers IIIIIIIVVAbsolute change in employment by quintile (1977-1985)
Average change in employment:
-14.3%
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-50005001,000Thousands of workers IIIIIIIVVAbsolute change in employment by quintile (1985-1991)
Average change in employment:
+19.1%
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-100-50050Thousands of workers IIIIIIIVVAbsolute change in employment by quintile (1991-1992) -100-50050Thousands of workersIIIIIIIVVAbsolute change in employment by quintile (1991-1992)
Average change in employment: -1.4%
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-200-150-100-500Thousands of workers IIIIIIIVVAbsolute change in employment by quintile (1992-1993)
Average change in employment:
-4.8%
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05001,0001,5002,000Thousands of workers IIIIIIIVVAbsolute change in employment by quintile (1994-2008)
Average change in employment:
+59%
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-600-400-2000Thousands of workersIIIIIIIVVAbsolute change in employment by quintile (2008-2010)
Average change in employment:
-10.4%
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-600-400-2000200Thousands of workers IIIIIIIVVAbsolute changes in employment by quintile and sector of activity (1977-1985) Agriculture, forestry and fishingHigh-technology industryLow-technology industryConstructionKnowledge-intensive servicesLess knowledge-intensive servicesNon-manufacturing industriesTotal
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-50005001,000Thousands of workers IIIIIIIVVAbsolute changes in employment by quintile and sector of activity (1985-1991) Agriculture, forestry and fishingHigh-technology industryLow-technology industryConstructionKnowledge-intensive servicesLess knowledge-intensive servicesNon-manufacturing industriesTotal
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-150-100-50050Thousands of workers IIIIIIIVVAbsolute changes in employment by quintile and sector of activity (1991-1992) Agriculture, forestry and fishingHigh-technology industryLow-technology industryConstructionKnowledge-intensive servicesLess knowledge-intensive servicesNon-manufacturing industriesTotal
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-50005001,0001,5002,000Thousands of workers IIIIIIIVVAbsolute changes in employment by quintile and sector of activity (1994-2008) Agriculture, forestry and fishingHigh-technology industryLow-technology industryConstructionKnowledge-intensive servicesLess knowledge-intensive servicesNon-manufacturing industriesTotal
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-600-400-2000Thousands of workers IIIIIIIVVAbsolute changes in employment by quintile and sector of activity (2008-2010) Agriculture, forestry and fishingHigh-technology industryLow-technology industryConstructionKnowledge-intensive servicesLess knowledge-intensive servicesNon-manufacturing industriesTotal
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-500-400-300-200-1000Thousands of workers IIIIIIIVVAbsolute changes in employment by quintile and sector of activity (2011-2013) Agriculture, forestry and fishingHigh-technology industryLow-technology industryConstructionKnowledge-intensive servicesLess knowledge-intensive servicesNon-manufacturing industriesTotal
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-50005001,000Thousands of workers IIIIIIIVVAbsolute changes in employment by quintile and professional situation (1985-1991) Private employeesPublic employeesEmployersSelf-employed workersTotal
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-100-50050Thousands of workers IIIIIIIVVAbsolute changes in employment by quintile (1991-1992) Employment in Welfare State servicesTotal
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-100-50050Thousands of workers IIIIIIIVVAbsolute changes in employment by quintile and professional situation (1991-1992) Private employeesPublic employeesEmployersSelf-employed workersTotal
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05001,0001,5002,000Thousands of workers IIIIIIIVVAbsolute changes in employment by quintile (1994-2008) Employment in Welfare State servicesTotal
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-50005001,0001,5002,000Thousands of workers IIIIIIIVVAbsolute changes in employment by quintile and professional situation (1994-2008) Private employeesPublic employeesEmployersSelf-employed workersTotal
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-600-400-2000200Thousands of workers IIIIIIIVVAbsolute changes in employment by quintile (2008-2010) Employment in Welfare State servicesTotal
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-500-400-300-200-1000Thousands of workers IIIIIIIVVAbsolute changes in employment by quintile (2011-2013) Employment in Welfare State servicesTotal
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-600-400-2000200Thousands of workers IIIIIIIVVAbsolute changes in employment by quintile and professional situation (2008-2010) Private employeesPublic employeesEmployersSelf-employed workersTotal