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Slowing Growth of Wikipedia and Models of its Dynamic (Presented at Wikimedia Foundataion and WikiSym 2009)
Slowing Growth of Wikipedia and Models of its Dynamic (Presented at Wikimedia Foundataion and WikiSym 2009)
Slowing Growth of Wikipedia and Models of its Dynamic (Presented at Wikimedia Foundataion and WikiSym 2009)
Slowing Growth of Wikipedia and Models of its Dynamic (Presented at Wikimedia Foundataion and WikiSym 2009)
Slowing Growth of Wikipedia and Models of its Dynamic (Presented at Wikimedia Foundataion and WikiSym 2009)
Slowing Growth of Wikipedia and Models of its Dynamic (Presented at Wikimedia Foundataion and WikiSym 2009)
Slowing Growth of Wikipedia and Models of its Dynamic (Presented at Wikimedia Foundataion and WikiSym 2009)
Slowing Growth of Wikipedia and Models of its Dynamic (Presented at Wikimedia Foundataion and WikiSym 2009)
Slowing Growth of Wikipedia and Models of its Dynamic (Presented at Wikimedia Foundataion and WikiSym 2009)
Slowing Growth of Wikipedia and Models of its Dynamic (Presented at Wikimedia Foundataion and WikiSym 2009)
Slowing Growth of Wikipedia and Models of its Dynamic (Presented at Wikimedia Foundataion and WikiSym 2009)
Slowing Growth of Wikipedia and Models of its Dynamic (Presented at Wikimedia Foundataion and WikiSym 2009)
Slowing Growth of Wikipedia and Models of its Dynamic (Presented at Wikimedia Foundataion and WikiSym 2009)
Slowing Growth of Wikipedia and Models of its Dynamic (Presented at Wikimedia Foundataion and WikiSym 2009)
Slowing Growth of Wikipedia and Models of its Dynamic (Presented at Wikimedia Foundataion and WikiSym 2009)
Slowing Growth of Wikipedia and Models of its Dynamic (Presented at Wikimedia Foundataion and WikiSym 2009)
Slowing Growth of Wikipedia and Models of its Dynamic (Presented at Wikimedia Foundataion and WikiSym 2009)
Slowing Growth of Wikipedia and Models of its Dynamic (Presented at Wikimedia Foundataion and WikiSym 2009)
Slowing Growth of Wikipedia and Models of its Dynamic (Presented at Wikimedia Foundataion and WikiSym 2009)
Slowing Growth of Wikipedia and Models of its Dynamic (Presented at Wikimedia Foundataion and WikiSym 2009)
Slowing Growth of Wikipedia and Models of its Dynamic (Presented at Wikimedia Foundataion and WikiSym 2009)
Slowing Growth of Wikipedia and Models of its Dynamic (Presented at Wikimedia Foundataion and WikiSym 2009)
Slowing Growth of Wikipedia and Models of its Dynamic (Presented at Wikimedia Foundataion and WikiSym 2009)
Slowing Growth of Wikipedia and Models of its Dynamic (Presented at Wikimedia Foundataion and WikiSym 2009)
Slowing Growth of Wikipedia and Models of its Dynamic (Presented at Wikimedia Foundataion and WikiSym 2009)
Slowing Growth of Wikipedia and Models of its Dynamic (Presented at Wikimedia Foundataion and WikiSym 2009)
Slowing Growth of Wikipedia and Models of its Dynamic (Presented at Wikimedia Foundataion and WikiSym 2009)
Slowing Growth of Wikipedia and Models of its Dynamic (Presented at Wikimedia Foundataion and WikiSym 2009)
Slowing Growth of Wikipedia and Models of its Dynamic (Presented at Wikimedia Foundataion and WikiSym 2009)
Slowing Growth of Wikipedia and Models of its Dynamic (Presented at Wikimedia Foundataion and WikiSym 2009)
Slowing Growth of Wikipedia and Models of its Dynamic (Presented at Wikimedia Foundataion and WikiSym 2009)
Slowing Growth of Wikipedia and Models of its Dynamic (Presented at Wikimedia Foundataion and WikiSym 2009)
Slowing Growth of Wikipedia and Models of its Dynamic (Presented at Wikimedia Foundataion and WikiSym 2009)
Slowing Growth of Wikipedia and Models of its Dynamic (Presented at Wikimedia Foundataion and WikiSym 2009)
Slowing Growth of Wikipedia and Models of its Dynamic (Presented at Wikimedia Foundataion and WikiSym 2009)
Slowing Growth of Wikipedia and Models of its Dynamic (Presented at Wikimedia Foundataion and WikiSym 2009)
Slowing Growth of Wikipedia and Models of its Dynamic (Presented at Wikimedia Foundataion and WikiSym 2009)
Slowing Growth of Wikipedia and Models of its Dynamic (Presented at Wikimedia Foundataion and WikiSym 2009)
Slowing Growth of Wikipedia and Models of its Dynamic (Presented at Wikimedia Foundataion and WikiSym 2009)
Slowing Growth of Wikipedia and Models of its Dynamic (Presented at Wikimedia Foundataion and WikiSym 2009)
Slowing Growth of Wikipedia and Models of its Dynamic (Presented at Wikimedia Foundataion and WikiSym 2009)
Slowing Growth of Wikipedia and Models of its Dynamic (Presented at Wikimedia Foundataion and WikiSym 2009)
Slowing Growth of Wikipedia and Models of its Dynamic (Presented at Wikimedia Foundataion and WikiSym 2009)
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Slowing Growth of Wikipedia and Models of its Dynamic (Presented at Wikimedia Foundataion and WikiSym 2009)

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Presentation given at Wikimedia Foundation and WikiSym 2009 conference on the surprising data that show a change in how Wikipedia is growing, and how the editor population might be changing inside the …

Presentation given at Wikimedia Foundation and WikiSym 2009 conference on the surprising data that show a change in how Wikipedia is growing, and how the editor population might be changing inside the system. Also shows the resistance to new content, and population shifts.

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    • 1. The Singularity is Not Near:Slowing Growth of Wikipedia<br />Bongwon Suh, <br />Gregorio Convertino, Ed H. Chi, Peter Pirolli<br />Augmented Social Cognition Area <br />Palo Alto Research Center<br />
    • 2. Exponential Growth of Wikipedia<br />Number of Articles (Log Scale)<br />http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Modelling_Wikipedia’s_growth<br />
    • 3. Active Editors<br />
    • 4. Growth of Monthly Edits<br />Monthly Edits<br />
    • 5. Something happened in early 2007<br />Monthly Edits<br />
    • 6. Slowing Growth in Global Activity<br />Monthly Active Editors<br />
    • 7. So What Happened?<br />No major incident reported<br />Wikipedia temporarily blocks the entire nation of Qatar by mistake<br />Microsoft offers cash for Wikipedia edit<br />“Essjay” controversy<br />Characterizing the evolution of contribution patterns inside Wikipedia<br />Data-driven approach<br />http://www.flickr.com/photos/lightpaintbrush/3747649160/<br />
    • 8. Slowing Growth of Wikipedia<br />Global Activity<br />No longer following an exponential growth curve<br />Which model can explain the slowing growth?<br />Activity Patterns by Editor Classes<br />Analysis of Population by Editor Class<br />
    • 9. Global Activity of Wikipedia<br />Edit Activity<br />Active Editor<br />
    • 10. Earlier Exponential Growth Model<br />Number of Articles<br />Log Scale<br />Linear Scale<br />
    • 11. Earlier Exponential Growth Model<br />Edits beget edits<br />more number of previous edits, more number of new edits<br />Growth rate depends on current population N<br />r = growth rate of the population<br />Growth rate <br />of population<br />Current<br />population<br />
    • 12. Logistic Growth Model<br />Ecological population growth model<br />r, growth rate of the population<br />K, carrying capacity (due to resource limitation)<br />K<br />
    • 13. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Modelling_Wikipedia’s_growth<br />Number of New Articles<br />Follows a logistic growth curve<br />New Article<br />
    • 14. A Modified Logistic Model<br />Carrying Capacity as a function of time.<br />K(t)<br />
    • 15. Struggle for Existence - Darwin<br />Biological system<br />Competition increases as population hit the limits of the ecology<br />Advantage go to members of the population that have competitive dominance over others<br />Analogy<br />Limited opportunities to make novel contributions<br />Increased patterns of conflict and dominance <br />
    • 16. Slowing Growth of Wikipedia<br />Global Activity<br />No longer following an exponential growth curve<br />Which model can explain the slowing growth?<br />Activity Patterns by Editor Classes<br />Analysis of Population by Editor Class<br />
    • 17. Slowing Growth of Wikipedia<br />Global Activity<br />No longer following an exponential growth curve.<br />Logistic growth is now a better explanation<br />Activity Patterns by Editor Classes<br />Patterns of conflict and dominance?<br />Analysis of Population by Editor Class<br />
    • 18. Defining Editor Classes<br />Highly skewed contribution pattern<br />Top 3% users contribute 50%+ edits<br />A lot of single-edit users <br />Five Editor Classes<br />Monthly edit count<br />No bot, vandalism included in the analysis<br />1000+: editors who made more than 1000 edits in that month<br />100-999<br />10-99<br />2-9<br />1<br />
    • 19. Activity By Editor Classes<br />Monthly Edits by Editor Class (in thousands)<br />
    • 20. Monthly % of Edits by Editor Class<br />
    • 21. Wikipedia<br />Actors<br />Admin, Bot, Registered editors, Anonymous users<br />Activity<br />Edit, Revert<br />Policy making<br />Vandalism ( &amp;lt; 0.5%)<br />Protect pages, block users<br />Page<br />Article, talk, user, user talk, image, policy, etc<br />
    • 22. Revert as a measure of resistance<br />Revert: Undoing one or more edits<br />The page being restored to a version that existed sometime previously. <br />Often used to fight vandalism<br />Revert ratio as resistance metric<br /># of reverted edits / # of total edit<br />This analysis excludes vandalism to model “resistance”<br />
    • 23. Ratio of Reverted Contribution <br />Monthly Ratio of Reverted Edits<br />
    • 24. A take away: Growing Resistance<br />Two interpretations:<br />Overall increased resistance from the Wikipedia community to changing content<br />Disparity of treatment of edits<br />Occasional editors have been reverted in a higher rate<br />Example of increased patterns of conflict and dominance<br />Photo: http://www.flickr.com/photos/efan78/3619921561/<br />
    • 25. Slowing Growth of Wikipedia<br />Global Activity<br />No longer following an exponential growth curve.<br />Logistic growth is now a better explanation<br />Activity Patterns by Editor Classes<br />Patterns of conflict and dominance?<br />Analysis of Population by Editor Class<br />
    • 26. Slowing Growth of Wikipedia<br />Global Activity<br />No longer following an exponential growth curve.<br />Logistic growth is now a better explanation<br />Activity Patterns by Editor Classes<br />Yes. We see patterns of conflict and dominance<br />Different editor classes experience differing resistances<br />Analysis of Population by Editor Class<br />
    • 27. Slowing Growth of Wikipedia<br />Global Activity<br />No longer following an exponential growth curve.<br />Logistic growth is now a better explanation<br />Activity Patterns by Editor Classes<br />Patterns of conflict and dominance<br />Different editor classes experience differing resistances<br />Analysis of Population by Editor Class<br />Are the population stable?<br />
    • 28. Population Analysis<br />Monthly Active Editors<br />* Log scale<br />
    • 29. Population by Editor Class<br />
    • 30. Slowing Growth of Wikipedia<br />Global Activity<br />No longer following an exponential growth curve.<br />Logistic growth is now a better explanation<br />Activity Patterns by Editor Classes<br />Patterns of conflict and dominance<br />Different editor classes experience differing resistances<br />Analysis of Population by Editor Class<br />Are the population stable?<br />
    • 31. Slowing Growth of Wikipedia<br />Global Activity<br />No longer following an exponential growth curve.<br />Logistic growth is now a better explanation<br />Activity Patterns by Editor Classes<br />Patterns of conflict and dominance<br />Different editor classes experience differing resistances<br />Analysis of Population by Editor Class<br />Middle class a smaller portion of the pyramid<br />
    • 32. It depends…<br />So… Is It Bad?<br />http://alfalfamedia.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/02/content-is-king.jpg<br />http://www.collegesofdistinction.com/collegetemplates/images/2386/community.jpg<br />
    • 33. If what you care is sustainability of the community…<br />Community is King<br />Sustainability of a system<br />Member to leader<br />Shrinking middle class suggest less resilience in a community<br />Connects with Population ecological research [Gunderson &amp; Holling 2001]<br />Illustration: http://www.thestar.com/article/540066<br />
    • 34. Factors Affecting the Growth of Wikipedia<br />People-ware<br />Growing resistance to changing content<br />Coordination cost and bureaucracy<br />Knowledge-ware: Availability of easy topics to write about<br />Tool-ware: Quality of tools used by editors and admins<br />http://www.aerostich.com/<br />http://www.mikestreetmedia.co.uk/blog/wp-content/uploads/2009/01/knowledge.jpg<br />http://youropenbook.agitprop.co.uk/growing.php?p=2<br />
    • 35. Thank you<br />Monthly Ratio of Reverted Edits<br />Bongwon Suhsuh@parc.com<br />Augmented Social Cognition Area <br />Palo Alto Research Center<br />
    • 36.
    • 37. Ecological Growth Model<br />r, growth rate<br />K, carrying capacity <br />
    • 38. r/K Selection Theory<br />r-Strategist<br />Growth or exploitation<br />Less-crowded niches / produce many offspring<br />K-Strategist<br />Conservation<br />Strong competitors in crowded niches / invest more heavily in fewer offspring<br />Evolution cycle<br />Resilience of an ecological system<br />Gunderson &amp; Holling 2001<br />
    • 39. User-Block and Vandalism<br />
    • 40. Page-Protection and Vandalism<br />
    • 41. Moore’s Law – Ray Kurzweil’s Extension<br />http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accelerating_change<br />
    • 42. Exponential Growth of Computing<br />http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accelerating_change<br />
    • 43. The Singularity<br />“The Singularity is Near” by Ray Kurzweil (2005)<br />Year 2045<br />$1000 buys a computer a billion times more powerful than the human brain.<br />A.I. surpass human beings as the smartest and most capable life forms on the Earth.<br />An extremely disruptive, world-altering event that forever changes the course of human history.<br />There will be a movie!<br />
    • 44. Logistic Growth Model<br />Exponential growth model<br />Growth rate depends on the current N<br />Ecological population growth model<br />r, growth rate of the population<br />K, carrying capacity (due to resource limitation)<br />

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