WikiSym 2011 Closing Keynote

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Model-Driven Research in Social Computing

Abstract:
Research in Augmented Social Cognition is aimed at enhancing the ability of a group of people to remember, think, and reason. Our approach to creating this augmentation or enhancement is primarily model-driven. Our system developments are informed by models such as information scent, sensemaking, information theory, probabilistic models, and more recently, evolutionary dynamic models. These models have been used to understand a wide variety of user behaviors, from individuals interacting with social bookmark search in Delicious and MrTaggy.com to groups of people working on articles in Wikipedia. These models range in complexity from a simple set of assumptions to complex equations describing human and group behaviors.

By studying online social systems such as Google Plus, Twitter, Delicious, and Wikipedia, we further our understanding of how knowledge is constructed in a social context. In this talk, I will illustrate how a model-driven approach could help illuminate the path forward for research in social computing and community knowledge building

Bio: Ed H. Chi is a Staff Research Scientist at Google, working on the Google+ project. Very recently, Ed was the Area Manager and a Principal Scientist at Palo Alto Research Center's Augmented Social Cognition Group. He led the group in understanding how Web2.0 and Social Computing systems help groups of people to remember, think and reason. Ed completed his three degrees (B.S., M.S., and Ph.D.) in 6.5 years from University of Minnesota, and has been doing research on user interface software systems since 1993. He has been featured and quoted in the press, including the Economist, Time Magazine, LA Times, and the Associated Press.

With 20 patents and over 80 research articles, his most well-known past project is the study of Information Scent — understanding how users navigate and understand the Web and information environments. Most recently, he leads a group of researchers at PARC to understand the underlying mechanisms in online social systems such as Wikipedia and social tagging sites. He has also worked on information visualization, computational molecular biology, ubicomp, and recommendation/search engines. He has won awards for both teaching and research. In his spare time, Ed is an avid Taekwondo martial artist, photographer, and snowboarder.

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WikiSym 2011 Closing Keynote

  1. 1. WikiSym 2011 | Closing Keynote !Model-Driven Research in Social Computing!!Ed H. Chi!!GoogleResearch!!Work done whileat Palo AltoResearch Center(PARC)!!! 2011-10-05 WikiSym 2011 Closing Keynote 1
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  6. 6. H"7I&+JH"",/7(+"7%KL$&+-%7%>?@$/(% (Kittur, Suh, Pendleton, Chi, CHI2007) 100% 95% Maintenance 90%Percentage of total edits Other 85% 80% User Talk 75% User 70% Article Talk 65% Article 60% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2011-10-05 WikiSym 2011 Closing Keynote 8
  7. 7. M-78%*(&C7$%A$(,778%+"%N$+$&+%H"7I&+-%!  `#85-.5A&h`#5-(#H"(0.%E&%9"%0&!  B*&4(#00+H%.?-.#5C&i)&j&<:Lcb& 10000 9000 Actual controversial revisions 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000 Predicted controversial revisions 2011-10-05 WikiSym 2011 Closing Keynote 9
  8. 8. O(+"%"2%O$P$,+$/%H"7+,61+"7-%% Monthly Ratio of Reverted Edits2011-10-05 WikiSym 2011 Closing Keynote 10
  9. 9. Q-1()%:7()G+&-%"P$,%>?@$/(%/(+(%*$/(+",%R(++$,7%S%5$,,%!&C(P" % %.!1CT%$+%()UT%Q:!5VWWX3% Anonymous (vandals/ spammers) Sympathetic to husband Mediators Sympathetic to parents 2011-10-05 WikiSym 2011 Closing Keynote 11
  10. 10. >?N(-C6"(,/U&"#%2011-10-05 WikiSym 2011 Closing Keynote 12
  11. 11. :&+%;;0%Q-6)$%!"&()%!87()-%2,"#%%!C(,$/%F8C)8C+78% ]8?#0&-#&N.435&a#5AC&N"0&_"%0#5& & & Ua#5A&"-&%C&J^O)<<LW& & U_"%0#5&"-&%:C&a`OO&)<<cW& 2011-10-05 WikiSym 2011 Closing Keynote 13
  12. 12. Y7/78%(%O$-+(1,(7+%!  J$$(#$(.-"&7#(& -3"&#440.#5&2011-10-05 WikiSym 2011 Closing Keynote 14
  13. 13. F$1,-+&-% Poor heuristic Good heuristic 2011-10-05 WikiSym 2011 Closing Keynote 15
  14. 14. DF7+-E% Solo Cooperative (“good hints”)2011-10-05 WikiSym 2011 Closing Keynote 16
  15. 15. !@(,5(8U1-0%!"&()%F8C)8C+78% 2011-10-05 WikiSym 2011 Closing Keynote 17
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  17. 17. F8C)8C+78%(-%;#@",+(7&$%%;7/&(+",%recall first-visit 2011-10-05 WikiSym 2011 Closing Keynote 19
  18. 18. GH%8-.#5&M01&n&Q"-(.4&U_"%0#5&"-&%:C&a`OO)<<cW&!  "50"/1.5A&-01& [  P.5?&5?&("?&/-"(.%&9#8-& G5-"($(.0"&):<&/038$0 &.5&#(?"(&-#& 6(.-"&-6#&"0020&!  ""?0Z& "*$"(- &4#5-"5-&7#(&04l#%?.5A& [  MA0&7(#/&?"%:.4.#:80& [  miN0&7(#/&@##A%"X!A"i51& [  `#50-(84-"?&5?&-3"5&03("?&-3(#8A3&0#4.%&/"435.0/0&S.:":C&& $(MA:80& 7(."5? T&!  !"(7#(/54"&Q"08("0& [  N"(5.5A&A.5Z&!("X!#0-&]5#6%"?A"&M"0-& Posttest score - Pretest score Gain = Max score - Pretest score& 2011-10-05 WikiSym 2011 Closing Keynote 20
  19. 19. R,"&$/1,$% $(MA:80& SF 6.-3& P(."5? & $(MA:80&o"/#A($3.40& SO p5%2& !#0--"0-& n&!("-"0-& I.-3#8-& WS $(MA:80& 2011-10-05 WikiSym 2011 Closing Keynote 21
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  21. 21. miN&].5?& `#?"& D%#A& D&[6-$,P(+"7% `#57"("54"& `& G/$%#2/"5-& G& Q2:$(-A:80& Q& _"60& _& URL Kindp$"5#8(4"& Code p& Blog "(43&B & Conference C ^"5?#(& ^& Employment E I.1.$"?.& MySpartagus M I& News `#508%-5-& N q& OpenSource O Search S Vendor V Wikipedia W Consultant X 2011-10-05 WikiSym 2011 Closing Keynote 23
  22. 22. Q"7%O$-+",L%;-")(+"7%KL$&+%.]993%!  J0&$$%."?&-#&3.A3%.A3-0C&-3"&!"#$%&(")*$+",-(+"#$&*&.($ 08AA"0-0&-3-&("?"(0Z&!  ()*#&+",#&-#.-/$#-"#5?&&!  (0*#1+)2"#34)&#%$#5)26+,C&&!  63"-3"(&-3"&.57#(/-.#5&.0&./$#(-5-&#(&5#-:& [  _.0-&5?&a#A("9"&Lb&2011-10-05 WikiSym 2011 Closing Keynote 24
  23. 23. :&+%;0%%;7P-6)$%^,"?$,(8$%!87()-%(&,"--%A(781(8$%^(,,$,-% r#.5-&6#(1&6X&N.435&a#5AC&@("A#(.#&`#5H"(-.5#& & Ua#5A&"-&%:C&O`IQ&)<;;W& & 2011-10-05 WikiSym 2011 Closing Keynote 25
  24. 24. !"&()%!+,$(#%O$-$(,&C%!  M6""-&("4#//"5?-.#5&S`3"5&"-&%C&`aOE;<&n&`aOE;;T&!  M#$.4+90"?&4%80-"(.5A&n&9(#60.5A&#7&-6""-0&SD"(50-".5& n&a#5A&"-&%C&mOME;<T&!  P4-#(0&./$4-.5A&("-6""-9.%.-2&S83&n&a#5A&"-&%C&OGGG& #4.%&`#/$8-.5AE;<T&!  N#4-.#5&K"%?&#7&80"(&$(#K%"0&Sa"43-&n&a#5A&"-&%C& `aOE;;T&!  [,8(7&%_`:%6$C(P",-%aR(1)%$+%()T%;H>!*bc%!  A(781(8$-%1-$/%7%5=++$,%aF"78%$+%()T%;H>!*bc%2011-10-05 WikiSym 2011 Closing Keynote 26
  25. 25. *"+P(+"7%2",%!+1/G78%A(781(8$-%!  M6.--"(&.0&5&.5-"(5-.#5%&$3"5#/"5#5& [  Q#0-&("0"(43&7#480"?&#5&G5A%.03&80"(0& [  V8"0-.#5&9#8-&A"5"(%.s-.#5&-#&5#5+G5A%.03& [  m5?"(0-5?&4(#00+%5A8A"&80A"&?.l"("54"0& [  o"0.A5&./$%.4-.#50&7#(&.5-"(5-.#5%&80"(0&!  i"0"(43&V8"0-.#50Z& [  I3-&.0&-3"&%5A8A"&?.0-(.98-.#5&.5&M6.--"(d& [  a#6&?#&80"(0&#7&?.l"("5-&%5A8A"0&80"&M6.--"(d& [  a#6&?#&9.%.5A8%&80"(0&0$("?&.57#(/-.#5&4(#00&%5A8A"0d& & 2011-10-05 WikiSym 2011 Closing Keynote 27
  26. 26. N(+(%H"))$&+"7%`%R,"&$--78% &M6.--"(&0-("/& <YX;LX;<+<BX;FX;<&SY&6""10T&& &F)Q&-6""-0& @##A%"&N5A8A"&J!O&n&N.5A!.$"& &;<Y&%5A8A"0&& M#$&;<&%5A8A"0& 2011-10-05 WikiSym 2011 Closing Keynote 28
  27. 27. 5"@%W%A(781(8$-%7%5=++$,% %%A(781(8$% %%%%%5=$$+-% %%%%d% %%%%%M-$,-% K78)-C% ,;CcB)CcFY& eU% BC)L)CFBb& f(@(7$-$% ;;CcbBCY)c& ]U% ;C,,BC<bY& R",+181$-$% BCcc,CBLY& ]Ug% cc,C<L,& ;7/"7$-(7% ,CYL,CLY)& eUg% ,,LC;;F& !@(7-C% )Cc,;C<)B& hUX% b<FCB))& o8-43& LL,CcY)& ;:Y& )YbCB)c& ]#("5& bBYC;Lc& ;:)& ;;FCB<F& P("543& F<,Cb<F& ;:<& )F;CYL;& @"(/5&& BLLCY<c& ;:<& ;c)CYbb& Q%2& BBcC,L;& <:c& ;L<C;Yb&2011-10-05 WikiSym 2011 Closing Keynote 29
  28. 28. F1#(7SH"/78%!+1/G%!  )C<<<&(5?#/&-6""-0&7(#/&F)Q&-6""-0&!  )&38/5&>8?A"0&7#(&"43&#7&-#$&;#&%5A8A"0&& [  5-.H"&0$"1"(0&#(&$(#K4."5-& [  ?.04800&-#&("0#%H"&?.0A(""/"5-&!  a(?&-#&K5?&O5?#5"0.5&n&Q%2&>8?A"0&!  !("0"5-"?&)C<<<&-6""-0&-#&"43&>8?A"&!  r8?A"&0"%"4-"?&-6""-0&.5&3.0X3"(&%5A8A"&2011-10-05 WikiSym 2011 Closing Keynote 30
  29. 29. :&&1,(&G%"2%A(781(8$%N$+$&+"7% !  M6#&M2$"0&#7&G((#(0& [  7-&#2#,%2/&#5$89%:5#16"8#;32,#<#&3&#3%&## &--9$-=3)&#,-%"8#4)>S?"-"4-"?&0&J7(.150T& [  a.A3&"((#(&(-"&7#(&-6""-0&#7&;t)&6#(?0& 2011-10-05 WikiSym 2011 Closing Keynote 31
  30. 30. *(&C7$%P-U%F1#(7% %%A(781(8$% %%%%%5SR% %%%5Si% %%%YSi% %%YSR% %%%%%%H"C$7b-%<(@@(% K78)-C% ]Xh% ]X% VW% 9e% WU]e% f(@(7$-$% ,b<& ;CBcB& <& ,B& WU]h% R",+181$-$% ;b<& ;CL<,& ;c& L& WU]V% ;7/"7$-(7% ;<F& ;CLbB& ;B& Y& WU]% !@(7-C% cF& ;CLLc& ;;& Y& WU]V% N1+&C% ;L& ;CcbL& )& )& WU]W% <",$(7% )Y& ;CcbF& <& <& UWW% P("543& ;,& ;CcL<& <& b& <:bc& @"(/5&& ;)& ;Ccbc& )& b& <:b)& Q%2& L& ;Ccbc& Y& c& <:BB& 5SR0%+,1$%@"-+P$T%5Si0%+,1$%7$8(+P$T%YSi0%2()-$S7$8(+P$T%YSR0%2()-$%@"-+P$% 32 2011-10-05 WikiSym 2011 Closing Keynote
  31. 31. *(&C7$%P-U%F1#(7% %%A(781(8$% %%%%%5SR% %%%5Si% %%%YSi% %%YSR% %%%%%%H"C$7b-%<(@@(% P("543& ;,& ;CcL<& W% X% <:bc& @"(/5&& ;)& ;Ccbc& V% X% <:b)& Q%2& L& ;Ccbc& h% ]% <:BB& •  P("543Z&BXb&P+!&3H"&)&6#(?0& •  @"(/5Z&;X)&P+_&30&;&6#(?u&FXb&P+!0&("&.5&G5A%.03& •  Q%2Z&,XY&P+_0&n&bXc&P+!0&("&.5&O5?#5"0.5& 2011-10-05 WikiSym 2011 Closing Keynote 33
  32. 32. H"##"7%5=++$,%H"7P$7+"7-% C(-C+(8% #$7+"7% MOA% ,$@)G%S$"(+-6""-&/"-?-T& ,$+=$$+%2011-10-05 WikiSym 2011 Closing Keynote 34
  33. 33. M-$%"2%MOA-%7%gV*%5=$$+-%%%A(781(8$% %MOA-% !  J%%&S);vT&/,,$ Vd% !  v&435A"0&4(#00&%5A8A"0&G5A%.03& )Bv&r$5"0"& 9d% !  @"(/5&5?&P("543&3H"&3.A3&v&!#(-8A8"0"& 9d% !  r$5"0"C&!#(-8A8"0"C&5?&O5?#5"0.5& 9d% O5?#5"0.5&3H"&%#6&v&$5.03& ;Bv& !  G5A%.03&S)BvT&?.l"("5-&7(#/&o8-43& ;bv& #-3"(0&]#("5& ;bv&P("543& 9Xd%@"(/5&& 9]d%Q%2& ;bv&2011-10-05 HC%!j1(,$%+$-+-%&"7k,#$/%+C(+%/L$,$7&$-%6G%)(781(8$%(,$%-87k&(7+% WikiSym 2011 Closing Keynote 35
  34. 34. !87k&(7+%H,"--SA(781(8$%NL$,$7&$-% %%A(781(8$% %F(-C+(8-% %*$7+"7-% %O$@)$-% %O$+=$$+-% /,,$ d% h]d% 9d% 9d% G5A%.03& ;Yv& Ybv& )cv& ;,v& r$5"0"& ed% Y,v& ,,v& Xd% !#(-8A8"0"& ;)v& B<v& ,)v& ;)v& O5?#5"0.5& ed% XVd% VWd% 9]d% $5.03& ;;v& BLv& ,cv& ;Yv& o8-43& ;,v& B<v& ,Bv& ;;v& ]#("5& ;;v& X9d% e]d% ;;v& P("543& ;)v& YLv& ,Fv& cv& @"(/5&& ld% 9gd% )Bv& Lv& Q%2& ed% F)v& ),v& )cv&2011-10-05 HC%!j1(,$%+$-+-%&"7k,#$/%+C(+%/L$,$7&$-%6G%)(781(8$%(,$%-87k&(7+% WikiSym 2011 Closing Keynote 36
  35. 35. ;#@)&(+"7-% %%A(781(8$% %MOA-% %F(-C+(8-% %*$7+"7-% %O$@)$-% %O$+=$$+-% ?11# );v& ;;v& Ycv& ,;v& ;,v& <",$(7% ;bv& ;;v& X9d% e]d% ;;v& B$,#(7&& 9]d% ld% 9gd% )Bv& Lv& !  m0"&#7&M6.--"(&7#(&0#4.%&5"-6#(1.5A&H0:&.57#(/-.#5& 03(.5A&?.l"("5-&.5&?.l"("5-&%5A8A"0& !  o"0.A5&#7&("4#//"5?-.#5&"5A.5"0& [  ]#("5&80"(0Z&$(#/#-"&4#5H"(0-.#5%&-6""-0& [  @"(/5&80"(0Z&$(#/#-"&-6""-0&6.-3&miN0& 2011-10-05 WikiSym 2011 Closing Keynote 37
  36. 36. !+1/G78%^)781()%^,"?$,-%!  O/$#(-54"&#7&9(#1"(0& [  -(84-8(%&3#%"0&SD8(-Ec)TC&N.H"r#8(5%&Sa"((.5A&"-&%E<bT&!  o"K5"&9.%.5A8%&9(#1"(0&0&m0"(0&63#&-6""-"?&.5&& $.(&#7&%5A8A"0&!  `H"-& [  m5?"(+"0-./-"?&?8"&-#&Y+6""1&-./"&%./.-& [  pH"(+"0-./-"?&?8"&-#&%5A8A"&?"-"4-.#5&"((#(0&2011-10-05 WikiSym 2011 Closing Keynote 38
  37. 37. i1#6$,%"2%^)781()%^,"?$,-% E% J% P% I% S% D% K% F% G%J% 140,730&P% 488,545% 13,228&I% 230,023& 4,825& 29,405&S% 359,117& 10,139& 112,524& 36,068&D% 150,041& 6,383& 30,855& 34,906& 30,916&K% 19,722& 6,384& 906% 2,014& 1,109& 972%F% 194,931& 10,463& 53,607& 34,586& 49,445& 33,568& 1,244&%G 110,748& 6,053& 22,106& 21,471& 21,989& 22,162& 786% 24,763&%M 148,365& 4,208& 31,184& 135,42 31,967& 29,331& 1,518& 30,257& 18,301& 7& 2011-10-05 WikiSym 2011 Closing Keynote 39
  38. 38. !C(,78%MOA-%:&,"--%A(781(8$-% E% J% P% I% S% D% K% F% G% M%E 3,013& 18,399% 985& 4,986& 1,144& 212& 1,791& 1,647& 540&J% 3,013& 77& 37& 58& 29& 43& 59& 46& 18&P 18,399% 77& 74& 1,644& 198& 2& 453& 168& 123&I% 985& 37& 74& 67& 64& 1& 53& 38& 279&S 4,986& 58& 1,644& 67& 139& 0% 286& 139& 53&D 1,144& 29& 198& 64& 139& 2& 112& 126& 48&K 212& 43& 2& 1& 0% 2& 3& 3& 1&F% 1,791& 59& 453& 53& 286& 112& 3& 157& 53&G 1,647& 46& 168& 38& 139& 126& 3& 157& 40&M 540& 18& 123& 279& 53& 48& 1& 53& 40& 2011-10-05 WikiSym 2011 Closing Keynote 40
  39. 39. !C(,78%F(-C+(8-%:&,"--%A(781(8$-% E% J% P% I% S% D% K% F% G% M%%E 8,178& 33,197% 14,96 27,284& 6,685& 798& 9,410& 7,208& 5,517& 9&J% 8,178& 331& 135& 351& 218& 149& 352& 260& 100&%P 33,197% 331& 535& 4,682& 604& 13% 1,231& 580& 400&I% 14,969& 135& 535& 762& 684& 25& 713& 415& 6,046&%S 27,284& 351& 4,682& 762& 819& 28& 1,468& 708& 463&%D 6,685& 218& 604& 684& 819& 26& 851& 769& 424&%K 798& 149& 13% 25& 28& 26& 25& 18& 20&F% 9,410& 352& 1,231& 713& 1,468& 851& 25& 879& 411&%G 7,208& 260& 580& 415& 708& 769& 18& 879& 265&%M 5,517& 100& 400& 6,046& 463& 424& 20& 411& 265& 2011-10-05 WikiSym 2011 Closing Keynote 41
  40. 40. ;#@)&(+"7-%!  O5?.4-#(0&#7&4#55"4-.#5&0-("5A-3&9"-6""5& %5A8A"0& [  _8/9"(&#7&9.%.5A8%&9(#1"(0& [  J4-0&#7&9(#1"(A"Z&03(.5A&miN0&n&303-A0&!  G5A%.03&6"%%&4#55"4-"?&-#&#-3"(0C&5?&/2& 7854-.#5&0&&389&!  _""?&-#&./$(#H"&4(#00+%5A8A"& 4#//85.4-.#50&2011-10-05 WikiSym 2011 Closing Keynote ? 42
  41. 41. >C(+%N/%>$%A$(,7m%!  M3"&`#//#5&M3("?Z& [  m-.%.s-.#5&#7&#4.%&.A5%0&7#(&N"(5.5A&5?&O57#(/-.#5&J44"00& [  63"-3"(&.-&.0&.5H.0.9%"C&H.0.9%"C&5?&90-(4-"?:&!  M3"&G0-9%.03/"5-&#7&`#//#5&@(#85?& [  O/$%.4.-&`##(?.5-.#5& [  G*$%.4.-&`##(?.5-.#5& [  _"A#-.-.#5&!  fJ%%&4#%%"4-.H"&4-.#50&("&98.%-&#5&4#//#5&A(#85?&5?& .-0&448/8%-.#5:g& [  `%(1&5?&D("555C&;cc;&2011-10-05 WikiSym 2011 Closing Keynote 43
  42. 42. B,(7/%M7k$/%5C$",G%"2%!"&()%R(,+&@(+"7% Scale! Time Unit! Band! 107 s! Months! 106 s! Weeks! Social! 105 s! Days! 104 s! Hours! 103 s! 10 min! Rational! 102 s! Minutes! 101 s! 10 seconds! 100 s! Seconds! Psychological! 10-1 s! 100 msec! 10-2 s! 10 msec! Biological! 2011-10-05 WikiSym 2011 Closing Keynote 44
  43. 43. 5C(7?%G"1n% !  43.w4/:#(A& !  3--$ZXX"?43.:5"-&2011-10-05 WikiSym 2011 Closing Keynote 45

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