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Towards 4,500 MW: Roll-out of the offshore grid in the Netherlands

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This presentation informs on cost, risk and realisation aspects of different roll-out scenarios related to the Dutch goal of 4,500 MW of offshore wind energy. The presentation was given by Michiel …

This presentation informs on cost, risk and realisation aspects of different roll-out scenarios related to the Dutch goal of 4,500 MW of offshore wind energy. The presentation was given by Michiel Müller, Unit Manager Wind Energy at Ecofys, during a joint seminar with Joulz and Houthoff Buruma. Through a multidisciplinary approach (legal, technical and cost), the seminar explored how this offshore grid can be realised.

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  • 1. © ECOFYS | | Towards 4500 MW offshore wind: the roll-out of the offshore grid in the Netherlands A multi-disciplinary approach: legal, technical and cost 24/06/2014 Michiel Muller1
  • 2. Cost, risk and realisation A holistic perspective on cost development of different roll-out scenarios
  • 3. © ECOFYS | | Ecofys wind energy - clients & services 24/06/20143 • Project developers • Owner/operators • Turbine manufacturers • Financial institutions • Governments Strategic Portfolio Advice Due Diligence / Owner's engineer / FEED studies Asset Performance Management Project Development Services Layout Optimisation & Cost Modeling Wind Resource & Measurements Michiel Muller
  • 4. © ECOFYS | |24/06/20144 The Dutch energy agreement (Energieakkoord, 2013) on sustainable development Michiel Muller  4450 MW in 2020 (3450 MW new tenders)  40% cost reduction per MWh in the period 2014-2024  TenneT will get the responsibility for construction and operation of the offshore grid, wherever this is more efficient than connecting to the onshore high voltage network. (Dutch Ministry of Economic Affairs, 18.06.2014) Tendered in Capacity Operational in 2015 450 2019 2016 600 2020 2017 700 2021 2018 800 2022 2019 900 2023 Source: Energieakkoordser.nl
  • 5. © ECOFYS | |24/06/20145 Offshore wind energy areas & wind farms (in place and in development) Michiel Muller
  • 6. © ECOFYS | |24/06/20146 What it is all about ... Michiel Muller Ballpark figures  CAPEX: ~3 M€/MW eInfra: ~29% For 3450 MW ...  CAPEX: ~10 mld. € eInfra: ~3 mld. €  OPEX: ~40 M€/year/300 MW eInfra: ~5%  LCoE: ~165 €/MWh eInfra: ~18%  OPEX: ~460 M€/year eInfra: ~23 M€/year
  • 7. © ECOFYS | |24/06/20147 What determines the cost of the electrical infrastructure? Michiel Muller Hardware (supply, installation, maintenance) Redundancy Financing Implementation (roll-out)
  • 8. © ECOFYS | |24/06/20148 Discussed configurations Michiel Muller from individual radial connections, .... to a coordinated hub-scenario from optimisation per wind farm, .... to standardisation including OHVS from singular, .... to shared responsibilities Radial connection "Business as usual" TenneT connection Offshore hubs (600 MW trafo)
  • 9. © ECOFYS | |24/06/20149 Discussed configurations Michiel Muller Hardware (supply, installation, maintenance)  Technical choice: more or less interarray cables? capacity and number of transformers? export cable length and route?  Standardisation: at connection level?, wind farm capacity? interarray cable level?  Optimisation: wind farm size, LCoE  Innovation: future flexibility? (new turbines, interarray cables, OHVS design, ..)
  • 10. © ECOFYS | |24/06/201410 Discussed configurations Michiel Muller  Redundancy at which level? N-1, N-2, ?  Apetite for investment in "artery" of electrical infrastructure  "Nederlanse Investeringsinstelling" / financability of the Energy Agreement Financing & redundancy
  • 11. © ECOFYS | |24/06/201411 Discussed configurations Michiel Muller  Will the wind farms be ready when the electrical infrastructure is constructed - pre-financing, utilisation?  Will the electrical infrastructure be ready when the wind farms are constructed - stranded assets?  How flexible is the proposed configuration with respect to future innovations to reduce cost?  Are we following the German or UK example? And what are the risks? Implementation (roll-out)
  • 12. © ECOFYS | |24/06/201412 An alternative? Michiel Muller TenneT responsible for:  Main cable route  High voltage infrastructure  Grid fluctuations, flow- management, balance maintenance Project developer responsible for:  Optimisation wind farm  Innovation Intermediate variant Offshore connectors
  • 13. © ECOFYS | |24/06/201413 Recommendations Michiel Muller  To ensure roll-out of the most cost efficient offshore electrical grid configuration:  Perform an independent benchmark of integral cost for the electrical infrastructure of radial, hub, and intermediate configurations, where the starting and boundary conditions per scenario are accepted by government, sector and TenneT (irrespective of the division of responsibilities between developer and grid operator).  To ensure cost reduction realisation throughout the entire roll-out of the offshore wind development:  Set-up an integral programme to monitor and validate actual cost throughout the implementation. And - based on intermediate evaluations - optimise new tender rounds. 20140623_LET_transfer of assets_v1.0
  • 14. © ECOFYS | |24/06/201414 Recommendations Michiel Muller  To minimise risk and cost from "stranded assets" and project interfaces:  Perform an integral inventory into the risk on cost and planning with respect to the actual operator role for TenneT offshore: a. Construction and operation; or b. Operation only, "generator OFTO build" type scenario for developer responsible for construction, handover and compensation after commissioning. 20140623_LET_transfer of assets_v1.0
  • 15. © ECOFYS | | For more information, please contact: Michiel Müller Unit Manager Wind Energy Ecofys Netherlands BV Kanaalweg 15G 3526 KL Utrecht The Netherlands T: +31 (0)30 662-3885 E: m.muller@ecofys.com I: www.ecofys.com 24/06/2014 Michiel Muller15