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Regional GHG reduction targets based on effort-sharing - COP19

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This presentation was given during a COP19 side event informing on constructive proposals for addressing equity within the UNFCCC negotiations. It presents the major findings from a research in which …

This presentation was given during a COP19 side event informing on constructive proposals for addressing equity within the UNFCCC negotiations. It presents the major findings from a research in which more than 40 studies that analyse future GHG emissions allowances or reduction targets for different regions based on a wide range of effort-sharing approaches and long-term concentration stabilization levels were compared. It was given by Niklas Höhne, Director Energy and Climate Policy at Ecofys, on 14 November 2013 in Warsaw.

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  • C&C is not driven by 'equality'. Form the outset [1996] it has been and still is rationally driven by the following syntax: -

    [1] an emissions contraction:concentration calculation for UNFCC-compliance

    [2] an emissions-shares contraction:convergence calculation that equal that.

    [3] an future energy contraction:convergence calculation that is governed by that and

    [d] a growth and damages calculation that is informed by that.
    http://www.gci.org.uk/cbat-domains/Domains.swf

    To assume other than 'equal shares by an agreed date under that limit' invokes 'n' order assumptions that make rational calculation of the above impossible and aspirational conversation between conflicted affinity groups infinite and inevitable.
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  • 1. Regional GHG reduction targets based on effort sharing: a comparison of studies 14-11-2013 Dr. Niklas Höhne, n.hoehne@ecofys.com, Dr. Michel Den Elzen, Donovan Escalante
  • 2. Content © ECOFYS | 14-11-2013 | Dr. Niklas Höhne, n.hoehne@ecofys.com, Dr. Michel Den Elzen, Donovan Escalante
  • 3. History of effort sharing approaches > Run-up to Kyoto – „Contraction and Convergence“ – Historical responsibility „Brazilian Proposal“ – Mitigation potential (Triptych) – Multicriteria formula > Run-up to Copenhagen – Basic needs principle – Capability (GDP/capita) – Staged approaches – Greenhouse Development Rights > Recently – Carbon budgets (BASIC experts) © ECOFYS | 14-11-2013 | Dr. Niklas Höhne, n.hoehne@ecofys.com, Dr. Michel Den Elzen, Donovan Escalante
  • 4. History of effort sharing approaches > Run-up to Kyoto – „Contraction and Convergence“ – Historical responsibility „Brazilian Responsibility Proposal“ – Mitigation potential (Triptych) – Multicriteria formula > Run-up to Copenhagen – Basic needs principle Equality Capability Need – Capability (GDP/capita) – Staged approaches – Greenhouse Development Rights > Recently – Carbon budgets (BASIC experts) © ECOFYS | 14-11-2013 | Dr. Niklas Höhne, n.hoehne@ecofys.com, Dr. Michel Den Elzen, Donovan Escalante Cost effectiveness
  • 5. History of effort sharing approaches > Run-up to Kyoto – „Contraction and Convergence“ – Multicriteria formula Responsibility – Historical responsibility „Brazilian Proposal“ – Mitigation potential (Triptych) > Run-up to Copenhagen – Basic needs principle Equality Capability Need – Capability (GDP/capita) – Staged approaches – Greenhouse Development Rights > Recently – Carbon budgets (BASIC experts) © ECOFYS | 14-11-2013 | Dr. Niklas Höhne, n.hoehne@ecofys.com, Dr. Michel Den Elzen, Donovan Escalante Cost effectiveness
  • 6. History of effort sharing approaches > Run-up to Kyoto – „Contraction and Convergence“ – Multicriteria formula Responsibility – Historical responsibility „Brazilian Proposal“ – Mitigation potential (Triptych) > Run-up to Copenhagen – Basic needs principle Equality Capability Need – Capability (GDP/capita) – Staged approaches – Greenhouse Development Rights > Recently – Carbon budgets (BASIC experts) © ECOFYS | 14-11-2013 | Dr. Niklas Höhne, n.hoehne@ecofys.com, Dr. Michel Den Elzen, Donovan Escalante Cost effectiveness
  • 7. History of effort sharing approaches > Run-up to Kyoto – „Contraction and Convergence“ – Multicriteria formula Responsibility – Historical responsibility „Brazilian Proposal“ – Mitigation potential (Triptych) > Run-up to Copenhagen – Basic needs principle Equality Capability Need – Capability (GDP/capita) – Staged approaches – Greenhouse Development Rights > Recently – Carbon budgets (BASIC experts) © ECOFYS | 14-11-2013 | Dr. Niklas Höhne, n.hoehne@ecofys.com, Dr. Michel Den Elzen, Donovan Escalante Cost effectiveness
  • 8. History of effort sharing approaches > Run-up to Kyoto – „Contraction and Convergence“ – Multicriteria formula Responsibility – Historical responsibility „Brazilian Proposal“ – Mitigation potential (Triptych) > Run-up to Copenhagen – Basic needs principle Equality Capability Need – Capability (GDP/capita) – Staged approaches – Greenhouse Development Rights > Recently – Carbon budgets (BASIC experts) © ECOFYS | 14-11-2013 | Dr. Niklas Höhne, n.hoehne@ecofys.com, Dr. Michel Den Elzen, Donovan Escalante Cost effectiveness
  • 9. History of effort sharing approaches > Run-up to Kyoto – „Contraction and Convergence“ – Multicriteria formula Responsibility – Historical responsibility „Brazilian Proposal“ – Mitigation potential (Triptych) > Run-up to Copenhagen – Basic needs principle Equality Staged approaches – Capability (GDP/capita) – Staged approaches – Greenhouse Development Rights > Recently – Carbon budgets (BASIC experts) © ECOFYS | 14-11-2013 | Dr. Niklas Höhne, n.hoehne@ecofys.com, Dr. Michel Den Elzen, Donovan Escalante Cost effectiveness Capability Need
  • 10. History of effort sharing approaches > Run-up to Kyoto – „Contraction and Convergence“ – Multicriteria formula Responsibility – Historical responsibility „Brazilian Responsibility capability need Proposal“ – Mitigation potential (Triptych) > Run-up to Copenhagen – Basic needs principle Equality Staged approaches – Capability (GDP/capita) – Staged approaches – Greenhouse Development Rights > Recently – Carbon budgets (BASIC experts) © ECOFYS | 14-11-2013 | Dr. Niklas Höhne, n.hoehne@ecofys.com, Dr. Michel Den Elzen, Donovan Escalante Cost effectiveness Capability Need
  • 11. History of effort sharing approaches > Run-up to Kyoto – „Contraction and Convergence“ – Multicriteria formula Responsibility – Historical responsibility „Brazilian Equal cumulative Proposal“ – Mitigation potential (Triptych) > Run-up to Copenhagen – Basic needs principle per capita emissions Equality Responsibility capability need Staged approaches – Capability (GDP/capita) – Staged approaches – Greenhouse Development Rights > Recently – Carbon budgets (BASIC experts) © ECOFYS | 14-11-2013 | Dr. Niklas Höhne, n.hoehne@ecofys.com, Dr. Michel Den Elzen, Donovan Escalante Cost effectiveness Capability Need
  • 12. History of effort sharing approaches > Run-up to Kyoto – „Contraction and Convergence“ – Multicriteria formula Responsibility – Historical responsibility „Brazilian Equal cumulative Proposal“ – Mitigation potential (Triptych) > Run-up to Copenhagen – Basic needs principle per capita emissions Equality Responsibility capability need Staged approaches – Capability (GDP/capita) – Staged approaches – Greenhouse Development Rights > Recently – Carbon budgets (BASIC experts) © ECOFYS | 14-11-2013 | Dr. Niklas Höhne, n.hoehne@ecofys.com, Dr. Michel Den Elzen, Donovan Escalante Cost effectiveness Capability Need
  • 13. Results in 2030 for 450 ppmCO2e Allowances in 2030 based on categories of effort sharing categories (450 ppmCO2e) © ECOFYS | 14-11-2013 | Dr. Niklas Höhne, n.hoehne@ecofys.com, Dr. Michel Den Elzen, Donovan Escalante
  • 14. Results in 2030 for 450 ppmCO2e © ECOFYS | 14-11-2013 | Dr. Niklas Höhne, n.hoehne@ecofys.com, Dr. Michel Den Elzen, Donovan Escalante
  • 15. Results in 2050 Allowances in 2050 for different stabilization levels (all effort sharing categories, except cost effectiveness) © ECOFYS | 14-11-2013 | Dr. Niklas Höhne, n.hoehne@ecofys.com, Dr. Michel Den Elzen, Donovan Escalante
  • 16. Conclusions > Large range within effort sharing categories: outcome > > > > determined by the way the equity principle is implemented Differences from effort sharing categories – For the OECD1990 region proposals in the category ‘Responsibility, capability, and need’ and those based on ‘Equal per capita cumulative emissions’ lead to relatively low allocations Allowances in 2030 for 450 ppmCO2 – OECD1990: on the order of half of the emissions of 2010 – EIT roughly two-thirds – ASIA group approximately at the 2010 emissions level or slightly below, with significant differences for South Asia, East Asia, and Pacific Asia. – MAF would be slightly above the 2010 level – LAM would be below the 2010 level For many regions, the choice of stabilization level was of equal or greater importance for the resulting emission allowances than the choice of effort-sharing approach, in particular for 2050. Significantly more studies are available but we suggest a modelling comparison exercise to ensure consistency and comparability of results © ECOFYS | 14-11-2013 | Dr. Niklas Höhne, n.hoehne@ecofys.com, Dr. Michel Den Elzen, Donovan Escalante