The Energy Report

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The Energy Report presents a possible transition to a global, sustainable energy system. The report contains a detailed analysis and scenario created by Ecofys, and a narrative by WWF. It addresses the fundamental question: “Is a fully sustainable global energy system possible by 2050?”

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The Energy Report

  1. 1. The Energy ReportTransition to a fully sustainableglobal energy system by 20504/24/2012Yvonne Deng
  2. 2. What is the issue? > Continuously increasing demand for energy services > Finite energy supply > Climate change and other environmental impacts 10 200 Population (billion). (trillion EUR 2005) . 5 100 GDP Source: Ecofys 0 0 2000 2025 20502 © ECOFYS | 4/24/2012 | Yvonne Deng
  3. 3. Key Question Is a fully sustainable global energy system possible by 2050 ?3 © ECOFYS | 4/24/2012 | Yvonne Deng
  4. 4. Answer YES! And The Energy Report shows how it can be done…4 © ECOFYS | 4/24/2012 | Yvonne Deng
  5. 5. Fossils are phased out over time as renewables take up the challenge Baseline: 500 Fossil & Nuclear ~520 EJ/a Renewable Heat & Fuels Aggressive end- Renewable Power use energy 400 savings and electrificationFinal Energy (EJ/a) 300 Remaining fossil fuels 200 Substitution of 100 traditional by renewable sources Source: The Energy Report, WWF & Ecofys, 2011 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 5 © ECOFYS | 4/24/2012 | Yvonne Deng
  6. 6. Absolute energy use can be reduced without a reduction in energy services 400 Other 350 300 IndustryFinal energy (EJ/a) 250 200 Buildings 150 Transport 100 50 Baseline (approx.) Source: The Energy Report, WWF & Ecofys, 2011 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 6 © ECOFYS | 4/24/2012 | Yvonne Deng
  7. 7. Buildings: Strongly reduce heat demand, increase electrification > New buildings: near-zero energy use Heating & > Existing buildings: retrofitted at an ambitious rate Cooling > Cooling: provided with renewable / local cooling solutions Local > Solar water heating systems will provide half of all water needs solutions > Electric heat pumps will replace fuel use with renewable electricity 140 Buildings 120 100 Heat - Low T Final energy (EJ/a) 80 60 40 Electricity 20 Source: Ecofys 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 20507 © ECOFYS | 4/24/2012 | Yvonne Deng
  8. 8. Transport: Electrification is key to sustainability > No major reduction of travel volume > Ambitious modal shifts towards efficient transport modes, e.g. from car to rail > Ambitious assumptions on efficiency improvements in existing technologies > Decisive shift to electric forms of transport > Renewable fuels Transport 120 Fuel - Aviation 100 Final energy (EJ/a) 80 Fuel - Shipping 60 40 Fuel - Road/Rail 20 Source: Ecofys Electricity 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 20508 © ECOFYS | 4/24/2012 | Yvonne Deng
  9. 9. Ambitious electrification on the demand side allows large-scale deployment of renewables 400 350 300 Heat and FuelsFinal energy (EJ/a) 250 200 150 100 Electricity 50 Source: The Energy Report, WWF & Ecofys, 2011 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 9 © ECOFYS | 4/24/2012 | Yvonne Deng
  10. 10. (Non-bio) renewable electricity options grow at fastest possible rates 400 Non-renewable 350 Bio options 300 RES heat optionsFinal energy (EJ/a) Hydropower 250 Geo: Electricity 200 Conc.Sol.:Power 150 Photovoltaic solar 100 Wave & Tidal 50 Wind: Off-shore Source: The Energy Report, WWF & Ecofys, 2011 0 Wind: On-shore 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 10 © ECOFYS | 4/24/2012 | Yvonne Deng
  11. 11. Where necessary, bio-energy is deployed up to the sustainable potential 400 Non-renewable Bio: Algae 350 Bio: Crops Bio: Comp.Fell.* 300 Bio: TraditionalFinal energy (EJ/a) Bio: Res.&Waste 250 Geo: Heat Solar thermal 200 Conc.Sol.:Heat 150 Hydropower Geo: Electricity 100 Conc.Sol.:Power Photovoltaic solar 50 Wave & Tidal Source: The Energy Report, WWF & Ecofys, 2011 Wind: Off-shore 0 Wind: On-shore 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 11 © ECOFYS | 4/24/2012 | Yvonne Deng
  12. 12. 100 % renewable electricity by 2050 > Renewable electricity so abundant that options will compete > Supply-driven sources limited by grid capacity in later years > Hydro, geothermal, CSP* and bioelectricity provide demand-driven electricity 140 Nuclear Electricity Oth(N): Nuclear Nuclear Oth(O): Electricity Oil Oil Oil 120 Gas Oth(G): Electricity Gas Gas Electricity Coal Oth(C): Electricity Coal Coal 100 Bio: Crops Bio(C): Electricity Bio: Crops Bio: Crops Final energy (EJ/a) Bio: Comp.Fellings Bio(F): Electricity Bio: Comp.Fellings Bio: Comp.Fellings 80 Bio: Resid. & Waste Bio(R): Electricity Bio: Resid. & Waste Bio: Resid. & Waste Geothermal Geo: Electricity Geothermal Geothermal 60 Hydropower Hydro Hydropower Hydropower CSP 40 CSP Power CS: CSP PV PV PV PV Wave & Tidal 20 Wave &&Tidal Wave & Tidal Wave Tidal Wind: Off-shore Wind: Off-shore Wind: Off-shore Wind: Off-shore Wind:On-shore Source: Ecofys 0 Wind: On-shore Wind: On-shore Wind: On-shore 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050*CSP=Concentrated Solar Power12 © ECOFYS | 4/24/2012 | Yvonne Deng
  13. 13. Electricity grids need to be upgraded and extended for maximum RES power 100% Limit placed on > Grids should be well-connected 90% supply-driven regionally; need to increaseMaxiumum share from supply-driven sources electricity: PV, – capacity 80% Wave and Wind – range of transmission lines 70% > Need for R&D, e.g. for better grid 60% stability 50% > Ultra-high RES shares beyond 40% 2030 require: - grid improvements 30% - demand side management 20% - storage 10% Source: The Energy Report, WWF & Ecofys, 2011 0% 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 205013 © ECOFYS | 4/24/2012 | Yvonne Deng
  14. 14. Bioenergy is an important element of the energy supply in the Scenario Bioenergy can fill energy demands where other renewables provide no or no complete alternative, e.g.:> Transport fuels; especially: 500 – Long distance road Other renewables Bio: Electricity transport Bio: Building heat Bio: Industry heat & fuels 400 – Aviation Bio: Transport fuels Fossil & Nuclear – Shipping 300 EJ / a> Industrial fuels; especially: 200 – Applications that require very high temperature 100 – Applications that require a specific energy carrier (e.g. Source: Ecofys gaseous fuel, solid fuel) 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 205014 © ECOFYS | 4/24/2012 | Yvonne Deng
  15. 15. 95% renewable energy worldwide by 2050 is possible 400 Nuclear Coal 350 Natural gas Oil 300 Bio: Algae Bio: CropsFinal energy (EJ/a) Bio: Complementary Fellings 250 Bio: Traditional Bio: Residues & Waste 200 Hydropower Geothermal Heat 150 Geothermal Electricity Solar thermal Concentrated Solar Heat 100 Concentrated Solar Power Photovoltaic Solar 50 Wave & Tidal Wind: Off-shore Source: The Energy Report, WWF & Ecofys, 2011 0 Wind: On-shore 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 15 © ECOFYS | 4/24/2012 | Yvonne Deng
  16. 16. Global net costs will peak below 2% of GDP, and will turn to net savings after 2035 4%> Net annual costs Source: The Energy Report, WWF & Ecofys, 2011 <2% before 2030 3%> Net annual savings 2% >2% by 2050 % of global GDP> CapEx peaks at 1% ~3% in 2030, 0%> Savings increase steadily to ~3.5% in 2050 -1%> Barriers: -2% CapEx – Short-term planning OpEx -3% – Initial investments are still large Net costs -4% 2010 2020 2030 2040 205016 © ECOFYS | 4/24/2012 | Yvonne Deng
  17. 17. Action points to reach a fully sustainable global energy system > Maximise energy efficiency to stabilise and reduce demand > Electrify to shift demand to the most abundant renewable energy sources > Prepare electricity grids for high supply-driven share > Scale up renewable power options > Supply residual fuel and heat demand with sustainable > Make initial investments bio-energy to reap net savings by 2040 > Action by all stakeholders is required now to Source: Ecofys change direction17 © ECOFYS | 4/24/2012 | Yvonne Deng
  18. 18. The Energy Report > Download the full report at www.panda.org/energyreport or www.ecofys.com/energyreport > The Energy Report is available in English, Spanish, Chinese and German. For German, please go to: www.ecofys.com/de/veroeffentlichung/the-energy-report > A concise four page summary is also available at www.ecofys.com/energyreport18 © ECOFYS | 4/24/2012 | Yvonne Deng
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