Renovation tracks for
Europe up to 2050
Ecofys webinar

05/02/2014
Thomas Boermans
Why renovation is so important
> Major saving potentials (CO2, energy)
> Reduce dependencies from (fossil) energy sources ...
Why renovation is so difficult
> Obstacles for the building owner:
-

Significant upfront investment

-

Changing the look...
Long term target for the building sector at EU level

> In its “Roadmap for moving to a competitive
low carbon economy in ...
Policies at EU level – the EPBD
> Requirements regarding ambition levels
within the Energy Performance of
Buildings Direct...
EPBD - timeline new buildings

2010

2021

Cost optimal requirements

6

© ECOFYS | 05/02/2014 | Thomas Boermans

20XX

ne...
EPBD - timeline retrofit

2010

20XX

Cost optimal requirements

7

© ECOFYS | 05/02/2014 | Thomas Boermans

20YY

nearly ...
Policies at EU level – Energy Efficiency Directive
> Requirements related to renovation
within the Energy Efficiency
Direc...
Introduction to study (Ecofys for EURIMA, 2013)
The goal of reducing carbon emissions by 90% is
clear but how to get there...
The methodology
BEAM² - Ecofys` bottom up model for the building sector

10

© ECOFYS | 05/02/2014 | Thomas Boermans
The assessed scenarios
> Track 1: Shallow renovation, low contribution from renewable energy
Fast renovation (renovation r...
Model inputs – building stock data

12

© ECOFYS | 05/02/2014 | Thomas Boermans
Model inputs – important parameters

Differentiated by region (for details, see study report):
> CO2-emission factors
> In...
Results - CO2-emissions (space heating and domestic hot water)

> Shallow renovation: missing target
> High efficiency foc...
Results – final energy (space heating, without new buildings)

15

© ECOFYS | 05/02/2014 | Thomas Boermans
Results – total costs (investment costs + energy costs)

> Shallow renovation: missing target, financially not significant...
Overview of results

Scenario

Retrofit
rate

C02Emissions
for space
heating and
domestic hot
water EU27 by
2050

Final En...
Conclusions I
> Can the 88%-91% CO2-emission savings target be achieved until
2050?

> Yes, track 2 and 3 arrive at approx...
Conclusions II
> Would 80% final energy savings be a suitable target?
> Yes, this is the right ambition level, with some c...
Conclusions III
> Can “deep renovation” be a suitable way to achieve EU targets?
> Yes. The combination of extensive energ...
Outlook – how to achieve deep renovation of the stock?
Possible parts of a solution:

> At building level
–

improve energ...
Thank you for your attention!
Ecofys Germany GmbH
Thomas Boermans
Unit Manager Buildings
Am Wassermann 36

50829 Cologne
G...
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Renovation tracks for Europe up to 2050

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This presentation informs on findings from a study for Eurima, the European Insulation Manufacturers Association. The study analyses and compares possible tracks for the renovation of the EU building stock, quantifying and illustrating graphically energy savings and avoided CO2 emissions, financial impacts and effects on employment. Thomas Boermans, Unit Manager Buildings at Ecofys, held the presentation during a webinar on 5 February, 2014.

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Renovation tracks for Europe up to 2050

  1. 1. Renovation tracks for Europe up to 2050 Ecofys webinar 05/02/2014 Thomas Boermans
  2. 2. Why renovation is so important > Major saving potentials (CO2, energy) > Reduce dependencies from (fossil) energy sources and avoid fuel poverty > Possibility to improve comfort and quality of life > Job creation, green growth, technology development > Basically only one chance to do it right until 2050 (renovation cycles of 3040 years) Renovation cycle 2010 2 2020 © ECOFYS | 05/02/2014 | Thomas Boermans 2030 2040 2050
  3. 3. Why renovation is so difficult > Obstacles for the building owner: - Significant upfront investment - Changing the look of the building - Will the quality be all right? - Investor-user conflict > Challenges at country/market level: - Many stakeholders with different views and positions: policy level, owners/investors, tenants, building companies, producers, architects, engineers, associations etc. 3 © ECOFYS | 05/02/2014 | Thomas Boermans
  4. 4. Long term target for the building sector at EU level > In its “Roadmap for moving to a competitive low carbon economy in 2050”, the European Commission established a long-term objective of decreasing the CO2-emission levels for the building sector by 88%-91% in 2050 (compared to 1990 levels). 4 © ECOFYS | 05/02/2014 | Thomas Boermans
  5. 5. Policies at EU level – the EPBD > Requirements regarding ambition levels within the Energy Performance of Buildings Directive: – cost optimal performance requirements (new buildings and renovation) – Nearly zero-energy buildings (all new buildings from 2021 on) 5 © ECOFYS | 05/02/2014 | Thomas Boermans
  6. 6. EPBD - timeline new buildings 2010 2021 Cost optimal requirements 6 © ECOFYS | 05/02/2014 | Thomas Boermans 20XX nearly zero-energy ???
  7. 7. EPBD - timeline retrofit 2010 20XX Cost optimal requirements 7 © ECOFYS | 05/02/2014 | Thomas Boermans 20YY nearly zero-energy? ???
  8. 8. Policies at EU level – Energy Efficiency Directive > Requirements related to renovation within the Energy Efficiency Directive: – MSs to develop renovation roadmaps – Renovation of central government buildings (3% p.a.) 8 © ECOFYS | 05/02/2014 | Thomas Boermans
  9. 9. Introduction to study (Ecofys for EURIMA, 2013) The goal of reducing carbon emissions by 90% is clear but how to get there? Which measures? How to combine? How fast do we need to implement? What would be the outcomes of different options in terms of energy and CO2 savings, financial impacts and employment effects? Within the study, three renovation scenarios were developed, characterized by two important parameters: • speed of renovation (= renovation rate) and • the ambition level regarding energy efficiency improvement and use of renewable energy 2050 horizon selected to reveal long term consequences of choices to be made. http://www.eurima.org/resource-centre http://www.ecofys.com/en/publication/ 9 © ECOFYS | 05/02/2014 | Thomas Boermans
  10. 10. The methodology BEAM² - Ecofys` bottom up model for the building sector 10 © ECOFYS | 05/02/2014 | Thomas Boermans
  11. 11. The assessed scenarios > Track 1: Shallow renovation, low contribution from renewable energy Fast renovation (renovation rate 3%) & average energy efficiency ambition level (~ 32 % reduction in energy use for space heating by 2050 compared to 2010), taking into account market failures (e.g. failure to treat the building envelope as a whole), low use of renewable energy. > Track 2: Shallow renovation, and high use of renewable energy Renovation rate 2.3% & average energy efficiency ambition level, taking into account market failures (~ 58 % reduction in energy use for space heating); limited focus on energy efficiency of the building envelope; advanced systems (high use of renewable energy and heat recovery ventilation). > Track 3: Deep renovation and high use of renewable energy Renovation rate 2.3%, high level of energy efficiency improvement (~80% reduction in energy use for space heating) high focus on energy efficiency of the building envelope; advanced systems (high use of renewable energy and heat recovery ventilation). 11 © ECOFYS | 05/02/2014 | Thomas Boermans
  12. 12. Model inputs – building stock data 12 © ECOFYS | 05/02/2014 | Thomas Boermans
  13. 13. Model inputs – important parameters Differentiated by region (for details, see study report): > CO2-emission factors > Investment costs > Energy prices Energy prices: > The energy prices for gas and electricity are derived from Eurostat data for household consumption. The prices for oil, pellets, heat pump electricity, district heat and biomass are related to these Eurostat prices. > The energy price rate increases (in real terms, excluding inflation) are chosen at 2.0% for electricity and 2.8% for all other fuels. In the period 2032-2050 (after 30 years of applying such real price increase), constant prices are assumed, which we believe puts estimates on energy costs savings on the save side. 13 © ECOFYS | 05/02/2014 | Thomas Boermans
  14. 14. Results - CO2-emissions (space heating and domestic hot water) > Shallow renovation: missing target > High efficiency focus + renewable energy and shallow renovation + RE: achieving target 14 © ECOFYS | 05/02/2014 | Thomas Boermans
  15. 15. Results – final energy (space heating, without new buildings) 15 © ECOFYS | 05/02/2014 | Thomas Boermans
  16. 16. Results – total costs (investment costs + energy costs) > Shallow renovation: missing target, financially not significantly more attractive > High efficiency focus + RE: achieving target at similar total costs > shallow renovation + RE: slightly higher costs 16 © ECOFYS | 05/02/2014 | Thomas Boermans
  17. 17. Overview of results Scenario Retrofit rate C02Emissions for space heating and domestic hot water EU27 by 2050 Final Energy use for space heating EU27 by 2050 (without new buildings) Related reduction in final energy use by 2050 compared to 2010 [%] [Mt] [TWh] [%] [trillion EURO] Track 1 3.0% 498 1,987 32% 8.2 Track 2 2.3% 103 1,228 58% 8.8 Track 3 2.3% 93 613 80% 8.5 17 © ECOFYS | 05/02/2014 | Thomas Boermans Total Costs (investment costs and energy costs for space heating and domestic hot water, discounted costs for period 2012-2050)
  18. 18. Conclusions I > Can the 88%-91% CO2-emission savings target be achieved until 2050? > Yes, track 2 and 3 arrive at approximately a 90% emissions savings, while Scenario 1 clearly misses this target. 18 © ECOFYS | 05/02/2014 | Thomas Boermans
  19. 19. Conclusions II > Would 80% final energy savings be a suitable target? > Yes, this is the right ambition level, with some considerations. > A substantial reduction of final energy consumption supports the achievement of the CO2 savings target. The 80% final energy savings target (suggested by Parliament’s report on the EED) seems suitable, if it relates to energy used for space heating. The deep renovation track delivers such savings. When looking at the sum of space heating and domestic hot water, the deep renovation track delivers -75% savings. 19 © ECOFYS | 05/02/2014 | Thomas Boermans
  20. 20. Conclusions III > Can “deep renovation” be a suitable way to achieve EU targets? > Yes. The combination of extensive energy efficiency measures and high use of renewable energy seems preferable to achieve, CO2 targets and energy savings. > Track 1 (shallow renovation) misses the environmental target (CO2-emission) and falls short on energy savings while not providing substantial economic advantage compared to the deep renovation track. > Track 2 (Shallow renovation and high use of renewable energy) meets the CO2target, but shows significant less energy savings while resulting in slightly higher costs compared to the deep renovation track. > The deep renovation track also offers the largest job creation potential of the three scenarios. 20 © ECOFYS | 05/02/2014 | Thomas Boermans
  21. 21. Outlook – how to achieve deep renovation of the stock? Possible parts of a solution: > At building level – improve energy performance of the building whenever maintenance/repair is due anyway – measures need to be „2050 proof“, especially on the building envelope (> 30 years lifetime) – avoid lock-in-effects if e.g. lifetimes of components cause the renovation action to stretch > Government – – support via capacity building, information, financing, incentives – 21 set requirements (esp. component level) check compliance © ECOFYS | 05/02/2014 | Thomas Boermans
  22. 22. Thank you for your attention! Ecofys Germany GmbH Thomas Boermans Unit Manager Buildings Am Wassermann 36 50829 Cologne Germany T: +49 (0)221 27070-151 E: t.boermans@ecofys.com I: www.ecofys.com 22 © ECOFYS | 05/02/2014 | Thomas Boermans
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