Industrial energy efficiency

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Meeting society's demand for materials in an energy efficient way - Presentation held by Maarten Neelis, Managing Consultant Industrial Processes at Ecofys, on 16 May 2013 at Chalmers Energy Conference in Gothenburg, Sweden.

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Industrial energy efficiency

  1. 1. Industrial energy efficiencyMeeting Europe’s demand for materials inan energy efficient way16/05/2013Maarten NeelisChalmers Energy Conference 2013
  2. 2. © ECOFYS | |Outline>Demand for materials continues to grow, also inEurope>The energy intensity of material production canstill go down significantly, but there are limits>The challenge of 80-95% GHG emission reductionin Europe, a fact based discussion on what toexpect from industry is necessary16/05/20132 Maarten Neelis
  3. 3. © ECOFYS | |© ECOFYS | |16/05/2013Demand for materials will continue to grow…3Source: Energy Technology Perspectives, 2012, OECD/IEA, 2012The IEA projects that:Crude steel production will grow from 1.2 Gt in 2010 to 2.4-2.9 Gt in 2050Cement production will grow from 3.0 Gt in 2010 to 4.4-4.5 Gt in 2050Ethylene production will grow from 0.1 Gt in 2010 to 0.3-0.4 Gt in 2050Etc. Etc.Maarten Neelis
  4. 4. © ECOFYS | |© ECOFYS | |16/05/2013Still billions of people on the growing part of the IOU curve4Apparent crude steel consumption per capita 1970-2003. Source: Neelis and Patel, Long term production,energy consumption and CO2 scenarios for the worldwide iron and steel industry, Utrecht University, 2006Maarten Neelis
  5. 5. © ECOFYS | |© ECOFYS | |16/05/2013And Europe’s consumption is produced elsewhere…5The net change in territorial emissions (1990-2008) together with the change in the net emission transfer between eachcountry and non-Annex B countries (1990-2008). Source: Peters et al., growth in emission transfers via international tradefrom 1990 -2008, PNAS, published ahead of print 25 April, 2011Maarten Neelis
  6. 6. © ECOFYS | |© ECOFYS | |16/05/2013An example: Europe’s chemical industrySource: European chemistry for growth, CEFIC, 2013, supported by Ecofys6 Maarten Neelis
  7. 7. © ECOFYS | |© ECOFYS | |16/05/2013How about the energy intensity, some examples7Specific energy usein GJ / t of productCurrent EmergingThermodynamicminimumPrimary steel 19-40 15 7Ammonia 33-47 25 19Cement 3-6 2.5 1> Energy efficiency potentials by shifting all plants to current best availabletechnologies is about 30% of current energy use> Emerging technologies have the potential to close part of the remaining gapwith the thermodynamic minima> But it is difficult to imagine a potential improvement in energy intensityimprovement beyond 50% towards 2050…Maarten Neelis
  8. 8. © ECOFYS | |© ECOFYS | |16/05/2013The picture for steel8GHG intensity of steel production. Source: ongoing research ….. (therefore not shown in this public version)Maarten Neelis
  9. 9. © ECOFYS | |© ECOFYS | |16/05/2013Recycling is great, but it will take some time ….9Global share of scrap input into steel production towards 2100 under four scenarios. Source: Neelis and Patel,Long term production, energy consumption and CO2 scenarios for the worldwide iron and steel industry, UtrechtUniversity, 2006Maarten Neelis
  10. 10. © ECOFYS | |© ECOFYS | |The European chemical industry towards 2050 – energy16/05/2013> Upper lines reflect energy use with projected production and 2010 energy intensitySource: European chemistry for growth, CEFIC, 2013, supported by Ecofys10 Maarten Neelis
  11. 11. © ECOFYS | |© ECOFYS | |16/05/2013> Upper lines reflect GHG emissions with projected production and 2010 GHG emissionintensity;> Emissions are scope 1 and 2 onlySource: European chemistry for growth, CEFIC, 2013, supported by EcofysThe European chemical industry towards 2050 – emissions11 Maarten Neelis
  12. 12. © ECOFYS | |© ECOFYS | |16/05/2013Snapshots from other industry roadmaps - ceramics12Illustrative model for CO2 emissions reduction between1990 and 2050: A excluding and B including electrification.Source: Paving the way to 2050, the ceramic industryroadmap, Cerame-Unie, 2012Maarten Neelis
  13. 13. © ECOFYS | |© ECOFYS | |16/05/2013Snapshots from other industry roadmaps - paper13Source: Unfold the future. The forest fibre industry 2050 roadmap to a low-carbon bio-economy, CEPI, 2011Maarten Neelis
  14. 14. © ECOFYS | |© ECOFYS | |16/05/2013And the industry projection by the EU….14Source: Impact assessment to “A roadmap for moving to a competitive low carbon economy in 2050, EuropeanCommission, 2011Maarten Neelis
  15. 15. © ECOFYS | |© ECOFYS | |16/05/2013Some elements of the post 2020 policy debate15> Production versus consumption based policies, what is the evidencefor carbon leakage and what to do to avoid it (slide 5 and 6) ?> What is a realistic abatement path for Europe’s industry, given stockturnover and technical possibilities (slide 10 – 13) ?> Innovation: how to bridge the gap from current BAT to emergingtechnologies to thermodynamic minima (slide 7-9) ?> Beyond energy efficiency – what is the role of CCS / fuel shift andelectrification towards deep GHG reductions beyond 2030 (slide 11-13) ?> The link to resource efficiency and recycling – how can we keep ourresource demand under control (slide 4 and 9) ?Maarten Neelis
  16. 16. © ECOFYS | |16/05/2013Thank you for your attentionEcofys Netherlands B.V.Kanaalweg 15G3526 KL UtrechtThe NetherlandsT: +31 (0)30 662-3241E: m.neelis@ecofys.comI: www.ecofys.com16 Maarten Neelis
  17. 17. Some background to Ecofys
  18. 18. © ECOFYS | |16/05/201318Ecofys domains of expertiseWind EnergyBioenergySolar EnergyHSE forrenewablesIntegrated EnergySystemsPower Systems &MarketsConventionalEnergy SystemsPolicy Design &EvaluationMarket basedMechanismsInternationalClimate PoliciesBuildingsSustainableTransportIndustrialProcessesSupply ChainsEnergy & CarbonEfficiencyRenewableEnergyEnergy Systems& MarketsEnergy &Climate PolicyMaarten Neelis
  19. 19. © ECOFYS | |16/05/2013Ecofys-Industrial Processes and you19 Maarten Neelis

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