Bankability and return on investment of wind energy projects


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This presentation describes the effect of local wind measurements on the cost of financing and optimal performance. Michiel Müller, Unit Manager Wind Energy at Ecofys, held this presentation at the National Wind Energy Congress in Amersfoort, The Netherlands on 16 May 2013.

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Bankability and return on investment of wind energy projects

  1. 1. Bankability and return on investment of wind energyprojects: effect of local wind measurements on the costof financing and optimal performance16 May 2013Michiel Müller
  2. 2. © ECOFYS | |Whats new?Michiel Müller16/05/2013windcube(LeoSphere)ZephIR(ZephIR ltd.)Wind Iris(Avent Lidar Technology)OCS 210(Bluescout)SpiDAR(Pentalum)Windar(Windar Photonics)
  3. 3. © ECOFYS | |And whats the implication?• Wind resource assessment• Power curve validation• Performance managementMichiel Müller16/05/2013
  4. 4. © ECOFYS | |General methodTerrainWind speedMeteorologicalmodelWind climateTechniqueYieldmodelAEPWind Resource Assessment Yield PredictionMichiel Müller16/05/2013
  5. 5. © ECOFYS | |Wind speed – Climate based10 mSource: UpwindSource: KNMI~10s kmMichiel Müller16/05/2013
  6. 6. © ECOFYS | |Wind speed – Climate basedCONS PROSQuality/consistency of data(in NL: KNMI)Availability of dataMeasurement height Low costLocation Long-termEcofys disclaimer Many sitesMichiel Müller16/05/2013
  7. 7. © ECOFYS | |Do we have simple terrain in theNetherlands?Michiel Müller16/05/2013Open farmland, (polder) Close to coast, city, industry
  8. 8. © ECOFYS | |Wind speed – On-site measurements2-4 DMichiel Müller16/05/2013
  9. 9. © ECOFYS | |Impact of measurement on uncertaintyMichiel Müller16/05/2013
  10. 10. © ECOFYS | |Wind speed – On-site measurementsCONS PROSPlanning Acceptability/bankabilityCost Least uncertainty/Lowest riskShort-term Best financing conditionsMCP neededOther characterisation of windclimate: turbulence, extremes,wind shearMichiel Müller16/05/2013
  11. 11. © ECOFYS | |Uncertainties in WRA+YPMichiel Müller16/05/2013
  12. 12. © ECOFYS | |Remaining uncertainties• Future climate• Other (future) developments• Pv-curve• AvailabilityMichiel Müller16/05/2013
  13. 13. © ECOFYS | |Requirements overall• Independent• Transparant (traceable)• Quality• Reputation• References• State of the artMichiel Müller16/05/2013
  14. 14. © ECOFYS | |Requirements wind speed dataOn-site wind measurements• Type of device (mast,remote sensing)• Duration• Observation height• Quality• DocumentationMichiel Müller16/05/2013
  15. 15. © ECOFYS | |Requirements wind speed dataWind speed information• Meteorological data• Quality• Always needed for reference• Modelled data• Mesoscale model resultsMichiel Müller16/05/2013
  16. 16. © ECOFYS | |Wind measurements• Best practice up till now• IEC compliant mast with cup anemometers• calibration• 2/3 hub height• Industry acceptance• LiDAR acceptable• Equivalent wind speed concept• New IEC standardMichiel Müller16/05/2013
  17. 17. © ECOFYS | |LiDARs at Test site LelystadMichiel Müller16/05/2013
  18. 18. © ECOFYS | |Ecofys position paper (1)LiDAR as good as mast, if:• Type has been tested sufficiently• Specimen has been validated against mast• Procedure and data collection IEC compliantCurrently only Leosphere and Zephir meet criteriaEcofys is of the opinion LiDAR can be comparablewith mastMichiel Müller16/05/2013
  19. 19. © ECOFYS | |Campaign strategies• Climate-based assessment. No LiDAR or on-sitemet mast• On-site met mast for one year, 2/3 hub height.No LiDAR1. LiDAR stand-alone on-site, single position2. On-site met mast for one year, 2/3 hub height.LiDAR next to mast for 3 months3. On-site met mast for one year, 2/3 hub height.LiDAR at 4 sites (seasonal sampling)Michiel Müller16/05/2013
  20. 20. © ECOFYS | |Effect on uncertaintyMichiel Müller16/05/2013
  21. 21. © ECOFYS | |Other opportunties for LiDAR• Capital efficient portfolio wind resource strategy• Pv-curve validation in situ• Performance managementMichiel Müller16/05/2013
  22. 22. © ECOFYS | |Capital efficient portfolio wind resourcestrategyEffect of seasonality (3 months campaign)Michiel Müller16/05/2013
  23. 23. © ECOFYS | |Capital efficient portfolio wind resourcestrategyEffect of seasonality (all seasons covered)12 monthsMichiel Müller16/05/2013
  24. 24. © ECOFYS | |Pv-curve validation in situMichiel Müller16/05/2013
  25. 25. © ECOFYS | |Consolidating Islands of InformationInfrared ThermographyVibration AnalysisNon-Destructive TestingLubrication AnalysisMotor Circuit AnalysisOperator RoundsMaintenance RoundsVisual InspectionsData HistoriansPLC’sSCADADCSRecommended TasksAnalysis ResultsPROCESS CONTROL TOOLDCSPLC’sData HistoriansSCADAINSPECTIONSVisual InspectionsMaintenance RoundsOperator RoundsRCMAnalysis ResultsRecommended TasksPREDICTIVE TOOLSInfrared ThermographyMotor Circuit AnalysisNon-Destructive TestingLubrication AnalysisVibration AnalysisAssetPerformanceManagement forWind PowerMichiel Müller16/05/2013
  26. 26. © ECOFYS | |Take home• Terrain in the Netherlands may be complex• Measurements (full year) reduce uncertainty• LiDAR can replace met mast (position paper I)• Sharing LiDAR between campaigns can increasecost effectiveness (position paper II)• LiDAR/met mast combination for large sites• Rapid deployment of LiDAR enables power curvevalidation• Asset performance management can improvevalue of wind farmsMichiel Müller16/05/2013
  27. 27. For more information, please contact:Michiel Müller, Unit Manager Wind Energytel: +31 (0)30 662-3885e-mail: