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COP19 - UNFCCC side event: Raising ambition - The role of international cooperative initiatives

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The presentation was given during an official UNFCCC side event in Warsaw at COP19 by Niklas Höhne, Director Energy & Climate Policy at Ecofys. …

The presentation was given during an official UNFCCC side event in Warsaw at COP19 by Niklas Höhne, Director Energy & Climate Policy at Ecofys.

Ecofys and the Cambridge Programme for Sustainability Leadership presented a comprehensive overview of international cooperative initiatives under their project “Wedging The Gap”. The presentation was followed by a panel discussion considering the implications for the UNFCCC.

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  • 1. Raising ambition: the role of International Cooperative Initiatives UNFCCC COP19 Side Event 14/11/2013 Ecofys & CPSL
  • 2. Raising ambition: the role of International Cooperative Initiatives Official UN COP19 Side Event ‘Wedging’ the pre-2020 Emissions Gap Chair Sandrine Dixson-Declève, Director of Brussels office, University of Cambridge Programme for Sustainability Leadership (CPSL) and The Prince of Wales’s EU Corporate Leaders Group Speakers > Philippe Joubert, Chair of the Prince of Wales’s EU Corporate Leaders Group and Senior Advisor to the WBCSD > Ivo de Zwaan, Head of Delegation for the Netherlands > Sophie Bonnard, Science and Programme Officer, Climate and Clean Air Coalition (CCAC) > Harri Laurikka, Chief Negotiator for Finland and Chairperson of NOAK (working group of the Nordic Council of Ministers) > Nicolette Bartlett, Senior Programme Manager, CPSL > Niklas Höhne, Director, Energy and Climate Policy, Ecofys 1 © ECOFYS & CPSL | 14/11/2013 | Ecofys & CPSL
  • 3. Agenda Welcome and introducing the session Sandrine Dixson-Declève, CPSL Overview of wedging the near-term emissions gap Niklas Höhne, Ecofys Four potential areas for scaling up Nicolette Bartlett, CPSL An update on the work of the Climate and Clean Air Coalition Sophie Bonnard, CCAC 2’ 10’ 10’ 7’ Bottom-up initiatives and the role of governments Harri Laurikka, Chief Negotiator for Finland and Chairperson of NOAK Ivo de Zwaan, Head of Delegation for the Netherlands Role of the private sector in helping to close the emissions gap Philippe Joubert, WBCSD and EU Corporate Leaders Group Q&A and discussion Facilitated by Sandrine Dixson-Declève, CPSL 2 © ECOFYS & CPSL | 14/11/2013 | Ecofys & CPSL 15’ 7’ 30’
  • 4. Agenda Welcome and introducing the session Sandrine Dixson-Declève, CPSL Overview of wedging the near-term emissions gap Niklas Höhne, Ecofys Four potential areas for scaling up Nicolette Bartlett, CPSL An update on the work of the Climate and Clean Air Coalition Sophie Bonnard, CCAC 2’ 10’ 10’ 7’ Bottom-up initiatives and the role of governments Harri Laurikka, Chief Negotiator for Finland and Chairperson of NOAK Ivo de Zwaan, Head of Delegation for the Netherlands Role of the private sector in helping to close the emissions gap Philippe Joubert, WBCSD and EU Corporate Leaders Group Q&A and discussion Facilitated by Sandrine Dixson-Declève, CPSL 3 © ECOFYS & CPSL | 14/11/2013 | Ecofys & CPSL 15’ 7’ 30’
  • 5. The UNEP Emission Gap in 2011 found that national pledges fall short of the pathway to 2°C by ~12GtCO2e Overview > The “emissions gap” between 55 55 Business-as-Usual and a 2 °C trajectory estimated at around 12 billion tonnes of CO2e by 2020 in 2011 50 45 have been covered by Copenhagen and Cancún pledges. This already assumed substantial progress on stricter rules, improved pledges and supported NAMAs > Governments expressed 44 grave concern at the conclusion of the report that we are currently far away 40 Source: [UNEP, 2011] 2010 4 > At best half of this gap would 6 GtCO2e 51 12 GtCO2e Total global annual GHG emissions (GtCO2e) 56 Time (years) © ECOFYS & CPSL | 14/11/2013 | Ecofys & CPSL 2020 from keeping to the 2 °C trajectory
  • 6. Overview How can we move forward to bridge the emission gap? > Break the problem into smaller pieces – Work with those that want to act – Find co-benefits in addition to reducing emissions – Amplify what the frontrunners are doing – Show potential impact on a global scale – Publicise to increase awareness of these activities > Identify initiatives by players other than national governments: Citizens Companies Cities Sectors Sub-national governments Build confidence and motivate by showing that individual actions add up to a meaningful contribution on a global scale, supporting the UNFCCC process 5 © ECOFYS & CPSL | 14/11/2013 | Ecofys & CPSL
  • 7. Wedging the gap identified 21 thematic areas which may be able to bridge the gap Companies’ emissions Energy efficiency Special sectors Top-1000 companies emission reduction Driving efficient building heating and cooling Reduce aviation and maritime emissions Supply chain emission reduction Phasing out incandescent lamps Reduce emissions of fluorinated gases Green financial institutions Driving towards efficient electric appliances Reduce deforestation Voluntary offsets companies Cars and trucks emission reductions Reduce emissions from agriculture Other actors Energy supply Voluntary offsets consumers Boost solar photovoltaic energy Short-lived climate forcers Major cities emission reduction Boost wind energy Sub-national government action Energy access through low emission options Reduce impact of shortlived climate forcers Scale up efficient cook stove use Reform fossil fuel subsidies Blok et al 2012: Bridging the greenhouse gas gap, Nature Climate Change http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v2/n7/full/nclimate1602.html 6 © ECOFYS & CPSL | 14/11/2013 | Ecofys & CPSL Overview
  • 8. 7 54 52 56 46 2010 2015 © ECOFYS & CPSL | 14/11/2013 | Ecofys & CPSL Included in low ambition pledge Included only in high ambition pledge Additional to pledges Ambitious end of national reduction proposals 50 GtCO2e 52 50 50 48 48 Reductions required for 2°C 46 44 44 2020 2° C range Blok et al 2012: Bridging the greenhouse gas gap, Nature Climate Change http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v2/n7/full/nclimate1602.html Global GHG emissions (GtCO2e/a) Business as usual 56 GtCO2e Confirmed national reduction proposals 55 GtCO2e Top 1000 companies Top-1000 companies emission reduction Supply chains Supply chain emission reductions Green financial institutions Green financial institutions Voluntary offsets companies Voluntary offset companies Voluntary offsets consumers Voluntary offset consumers Major cities Major cities initiative Sub-national governments Sub-national governments Efficient buildings Building heating and cooling incandescent lamps Ban of Efficient lighting Efficient appliances Electric appliances Cars and trucks Cars & trucks emission reduction Boost solar energy Boost solar photovoltaic energy Boost wind energy Boost wind energy Access to options Access to energy through low-emission energy Fossil fuel subsidy reform Phasing out subsidies for fossil fuels Aviation and marimtime International aviation and maritime transport Fluorinated gases Fluorinated gases initiative Reduce deforestation Reduce deforestation Agriculture Agriculture Short-lived climate forcers Short lived climate forcers Efficient cookstoves Efficient cookstoves Global GHG emissions (GtCO2e/a) Efforts in the 21 thematic areas could achieve significant emission reductions Overview 56 54
  • 9. Several publications have covered International Cooperative Initiatives and Wedging the Gap 2012: Nature paper 56 56 52 Included in low ambition pledge Included only in high ambition pledge Additional to pledges Ambitious end of national reduction proposals 50 GtCO2e 54 52 50 50 48 48 46 46 44 44 2015 2020 Top-1000 companies emission reduction Supply chain emission reductions Green financial institutions Voluntary offset companies Voluntary offset consumers Major cities initiative Sub-national governments Building heating and cooling Ban of incandescent lamps Electric appliances Cars & trucks emission reduction Boost solar photovoltaic energy Boost wind energy Access to energy through low-emission options Phasing out subsidies for fossil fuels International aviation and maritime transport Fluorinated gases initiative Reduce deforestation Agriculture Short lived climate forcers Efficient cookstoves 2010 Global GHG emissions (GtCO2e/a) Global GHG emissions (GtCO2e/a) Business as usual 56 GtCO2e Confirmed national reduction proposals 55 GtCO2e 54 • Cooperative Initiatives provide additional emission reductions • 21 areas together may bridge 2012: Report for CIFF • Additional detail on existing the gap to 2020 initiatives 2° C range 2013: UNFCCC technical papers • Identification of focus areas • List of initiatives (50) [2013]: Report for NOAK • Initiatives vary in progress and needs • Factors to ensure additionality 2013: UNEP gap report • Cooperative initiatives can play a key role in narrowing / closing the gap • Focus areas: energy efficiency, fossil fuel subsidy reform, short lived climate pollutants and renewable energy 8 © ECOFYS & CPSL | 14/11/2013 | Ecofys & CPSL Overview
  • 10. Overview International Cooperative Initiatives have been catalogued but now need to be analysed > The importance of International Cooperative Initiatives is recognised in the international climate community  > There are good and fairly comprehensive overviews of the global initiatives in place, including the objective of each initiative > We do not yet know – The emission reductions impact of the initiatives – The likelihood of success for all initiatives > These will tell us: – Which initiatives need support – Which thematic areas need additional initiatives 9 © ECOFYS & CPSL | 14/11/2013 | Ecofys & CPSL  ? 
  • 11. Overview The UNEP gap report 2013: where reports agree on focus areas Topic Wedging the gap Energy efficiency Buildings heating and cooling Ban of incandescent lamps Electric appliances Industrial motor systems Cars and trucks emission reductions Renewable energy Boost solar photovoltaic energy Boost wind energy Access energy through low emission options Limiting inefficient coal use in electricity generation Methane and other Methane from fossil fuel production climate pollutants Other methane and other climate pollutants Efficient cook stoves Fluorinated greenhouse gases Fossil fuel subsidy reform International transport Agriculture Reduce deforestation Waste Companies Top-1000 companies emission reduction Supply chain emission reductions Green financial institutions Voluntary offset companies Voluntary offsets consumers Major cities initiative Sub-national governments Total 10 © ECOFYS & CPSL | 14/11/2013 | Ecofys & CPSL 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.7 1.4 1.2 0.4 * * 0.3 0.9 0.2 0.8 1.8 0.7 0.2 0.4 2.0 1.6 0.7 0.6 9.7** UNFCCC technical paper 2 IEA energy Number of / climate initiatives map 0.5 25 0.5 0.4 0.2 1 – 2.5 1.1 0.5 1.5 – 2 0.3 – 0.5 1.3 – 4.2 1.1 – 4.3 0.8 Not added 17 0.7 0.6 0.4 3.1 0 7 3 1 4 1 15 1 4 1 1 0 0 3 2
  • 12. Preliminary estimates of the impact of stated commitments of existing initiatives look promising Overview > We have performed a preliminary assessment of the expected impact of the stated commitment of ten of the twenty-on initiatives. > The results are promising, but further work is needed to quantify the expected emission reductions 11 © ECOFYS & CPSL | 14/11/2013 | Ecofys & CPSL
  • 13. Three activities need to happen to bring cooperative initiatives further Tracking International Cooperative Initiatives Sharing Seeding 12 © ECOFYS & CPSL | 14/11/2013 | Ecofys & CPSL Overview • International tracker systems for initiatives which aggregates impact • Maps the landscape and highlights overlaps • Provides analysis to prioritise for finance and support • Creates a forum through which ICIs can exchange practice • Facilitates collaboration with governments and encourage ambition-raising • Seeds new initiatives • Brokers links between funders and initiatives to increase scale
  • 14. We are performing a preliminary analysis on 12 of the 21 thematic areas Companies’ emissions Energy efficiency Special sectors Top-1000 companies emission reduction Driving efficient building heating and cooling Reduce aviation and maritime emissions Supply chain emission reduction Phasing out incandescent lamps Reduce emissions of fluorinated gases Green financial institutions Driving towards efficient electric appliances Reduce deforestation Voluntary offsets companies Cars and trucks emission reductions Reduce emissions from agriculture Other actors Energy supply Voluntary offsets consumers Boost solar photovoltaic energy Short-lived climate forcers Major cities emission reduction Boost wind energy Sub-national government action Energy access through low emission options Reduce impact of shortlived climate forcers Scale up efficient cook stove use Reform fossil fuel subsidies Blok et al 2012: Bridging the greenhouse gas gap, Nature Climate Change http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v2/n7/full/nclimate1602.html 13 © ECOFYS & CPSL | 14/11/2013 | Ecofys & CPSL Overview
  • 15. Area: Reduce impact of SLCFs Considerable potential, promising initiatives > Short-lived climate forcers include > > > > 14 black carbon, tropospheric ozone and methane Reduction of emissions that lead to reduced concentrations of short-lived climate forcers have only recently gained broad attention [UNEP, 2011] These can lead to important limitations of radiative forcing in the short-term and will provide significant co-benefits through improved air quality A global initiative has been formed under the auspices of UNEP: CCAC Currently there are no company driven activities or initiatives to address the reduction © ECOFYS & CPSL | 14/11/2013 | Ecofys & CPSL Total 2020 thematic area potential (Mt CO2e) [Blok, 2012] Four areas Up to 1000 Intitiatives to reduce the impact of SLCFs Name Description Aim to raise awareness of short lived climate pollutant impacts and mitigation strategies; Enhancing Climate and Clean Air and developing new national and Coalition To Reduce regional actions, including by Short-Lived Climate identifying and overcoming barriers, Pollutants (CCAC) enhancing capacity, and mobilizing support and promoting best practices and showcasing successful efforts. Global methane initiative (GMI) Reduce global methane emissions and to advance the abatement, recovery and use of methane as a valuable clean energy source.
  • 16. Four areas Area: Short-lived climate forcers Benefits of taking action beyond climate impacts Barriers to taking action • Air quality improvement, resulting in overall health benefits • Supporting development by improving domestic situations • Technology ready to go • Resistance by industry to change industrial processes • Low stakeholder awareness and weak regulation • High technology costs and lack of infrastructure Options for scaling up • Wider country participation in the CCAC, resulting in increased support and funding • Ensure reducing SLFCs is mainstreamed across multilateral and other funds Need for government support • Undergo screening process for donor funds re: mainstreaming STCFs reduction • Exchange of information on baselines, benefits, strategies etc. • Enact policy in this area in a sector by sector basis This is an area which should complement rather than replace existing CO2 emission strategies. Strengthen resources and support for the CCAC, on condition that effective tracking and ambitious targets are set 15 © ECOFYS & CPSL | 14/11/2013 | Ecofys & CPSL
  • 17. Four areas Area: Efficient building heating and cooling Large potential, several initiatives exist > Global emissions from buildings make up around 20% of total emissions; the majority of this comes from heating and cooling. > Energy efficiency for buildings is an area with a huge emission reduction potential [IPCC, 2007], but also the area where progress is most disappointing [IEA, 2013] > There are several initiatives that address emission reduction for buildings. Targets that are set (if any) have an aspirational character. Total 2020 thematic area potential (Mt CO2e) [Blok, 2012] Up to 600 Initiatives for reducing emissions in the building sector Name Description UNEP Sustainable Buildings & Climate Initiative (SBCI) The initiative provides buildings stakeholders with a platform for collaboration and collective actions as well as support regarding performance assessment baselines for buildings energy use and GHGs emissions. The initiative is working with large WBCSD, Energy building portfolio owners to identify the Efficiency in key barriers in the decision making Buildings process for EE measures and how they projects can be overcome. They support new and emerging Green Building Councils by providing them with World Green the tools and strategies to establish Building Council strong organisations and leadership positions in their countries. Carries out research and distributes the Global Buildings knowledge to diverse key stakeholders in Performance energy performance in buildings to Network capture the economic, technical potential (GBPN) of energy performance in buildings 16 © ECOFYS & CPSL | 14/11/2013 | Ecofys & CPSL
  • 18. Four areas Area: Building heating and cooling Benefits of taking action beyond climate impacts • Overall benefits for buildings’ users: reduce fuel and electricity bills, • Increased comfort • Decreased air pollution Barriers to taking action • Fragmentation of the building industry • Relatively high upfront investments required • Lack of coordination within and among governments Options for scaling up Need for government support • Develop an integrated approach, to include construction materials and energy generation as well as energy use • Possible voluntary code/target of commercial real estate sector • Earmark government funding for low-carbon buildings • Government-set energy efficiency targets for building Catalyse an initiative working with an alliance of commercial real estate sector actors who agree to a code / target in terms of future property investments. Consolidate building sector and adopt widespread codes and standards, which include energy generation as well as energy use in buildings 17 © ECOFYS & CPSL | 14/11/2013 | Ecofys & CPSL
  • 19. Area: Reduce deforestation Very complex with large, but highly uncertain potential > Reducing deforestation is a major Total 2020 thematic area potential (Mt CO2e) [Blok, 2012] Four areas Up to 1800 option for GHG emission reduction and has a track record of successful Initiatives to reduce deforestation Description programmes in various countries, e.g. Name The programme supports nationally-led REDD+ UN-REDD in Brazil. processes and promotes the involvement of all Programme stakeholders in REDD+ implementation. > Trend globally = a decrease in rate of Aims to catalyse support for forest and tropical deforestation landscape restoration, to map and analyse GPFLR > Many initiatives exist (see examples in table), but none of them have formulated clear quantitative commitments. The only exception is the GPFLR that has committed to restore 150 million hectares of lost forests and degraded lands worldwide by 2020 > Several NGOs have formulated a zero-deforestation objective by 2020. 18 © ECOFYS & CPSL | 14/11/2013 | Ecofys & CPSL restoration potential, and to enhance knowledge and networks on forest landscape restoration. AFP has set itself the task of information Asia Forest sharing, dialogue and joint action to promote Partnership sustainable forest management in Asia and the Pacific. Tropical Forest Alliance Is a public-private partnership in which partners take voluntary actions, individually and in combination, to reduce the tropical deforestation associated with the sourcing of commodities such as palm oil, soy, beef, and paper and pulp. Forest Investment The FIP supports developing country efforts to Program reduce deforestation and forest degradation. (FIP) Collaborative Partnership on Forests Comprising 14 international organizations, institutions and secretariats. CPF’s objective is to promote the management, conservation and sustainable development of all types of forests..
  • 20. Four areas Area: Reduce deforestation Benefits of taking action beyond climate impacts • Sustainably managed forests support economic development of countries, inlcuding providing millions of jobs • Supports local climate adaptation (decreased flooding etc.) Barriers to taking action • Lack of collaboration with the private sector • Land use management fragmented • Poor data • Lack of funding Options for scaling up Need for government support • Focus needs to shift to integrated land use planning and sustainable forest management, focusing on drivers • Increase scope through landscape and forest restoration • Support a regional approach, not just national, for funds such as GEF • Further incentivize REDD readiness processes More research needed to ascertain ways in which bottom-up activities could decrease drivers and enable sustainable forest management. Widening the focus to an integrated land management approach is also key here, as well as the relatively untapped contribution that landscape and forest restoration could make. 19 © ECOFYS & CPSL | 14/11/2013 | Ecofys & CPSL
  • 21. Area: Driving towards efficient electric appliances Significant potential, few initiatives > There is a high potential for energy efficiency of appliances, which can most readily be realised by implementing Minimum Energy Performance Standards [IEA, 2013a] > There are several networks focusing on knowledge development and exchange (). > So far, there is a lack of international targeted action and involvement of industry and consumer organisations in these networks is limited Total 2020 thematic area potential (Mt CO2e) [Blok, 2012] Four areas Up to 600 Initiatives for reducing emissions through electric appliances © ECOFYS & CPSL | 14/11/2013 | Ecofys & CPSL Description The Collaborative Labelling & Appliance Standards Program (CLASP) Respond to the assistance needs of Standards and Labelling (S&L) practitioners in targeted countries and regions; Provide technical assistance to national governments; Distribute information on S&L best practice Super-efficient Equipment and Appliance Deployment (SEAD) Initiative by the Clean Energy Ministerial Raise the efficiency ceiling" by pulling super-efficient appliances and equipment into the market through cooperation on measures like incentives, procurement, awards, and R&D investments International Energy Agency’s Efficient Electrical End-use Equipment initiative (IAE’s 4E) 20 Name Promote the most efficient electrical end-use products in the market, focusing on industrial, commercial and household equipment.
  • 22. Four areas Area: Efficient appliances Benefits of taking action beyond climate impacts • Reduction of overall energy consumption • Cost savings for users • Decrease in peak electricity demand, resulting in fewer/less frequent blackouts Barriers to taking action • Lack of expertise and infrastructure • Insufficient funding Options for scaling up Need for government support • Targeted campaign to transform markets starting in 3 key appliances areas: air conditioning, fridges and water heaters, phasing out inefficient appliances phasing in super-efficient appliances • Funding required to form a coalition based on existing platforms to enable this scaling up • Governments & manufacturers should agree to an ‘anti-dumping’ commitment to ensure inefficient appliances are not shifted to markets which do not have the necessary standards Pool the unique strengths of SEAD, CLASP and en.lighten to form a targeted coalition to phase in super-efficient appliances and phase out inefficient ones, starting in 3 key areas: air conditioning, fridges and water heaters 21 © ECOFYS & CPSL | 14/11/2013 | Ecofys & CPSL
  • 23. Different strategies will be required to help different thematic areas to succeed Targeted support • Several, advanced efforts can be scaled up through additional cooperation and /or funding Policy setting • Government action needed for initiatives to succeed Additional initiatives 22 • Lack of initiative, need for incubation © ECOFYS & CPSL | 14/11/2013 | Ecofys & CPSL Four areas
  • 24. Agenda Welcome and introducing the session Sandrine Dixson-Declève, CPSL Overview of wedging the near-term emissions gap Niklas Höhne, Ecofys Four potential areas for scaling up Nicolette Bartlett, CPSL An update on the work of the Climate and Clean Air Coalition Sophie Bonnard, CCAC 2’ 10’ 10’ 7’ Bottom-up initiatives and the role of governments Harri Laurikka, Chief Negotiator for Finland and Chairperson of NOAK Ivo de Zwaan, Head of Delegation for the Netherlands Role of the private sector in helping to close the emissions gap Philippe Joubert, WBCSD and EU Corporate Leaders Group Q&A and discussion Facilitated by Sandrine Dixson-Declève, CPSL 23 © ECOFYS & CPSL | 14/11/2013 | Ecofys & CPSL 15’ 7’ 30’
  • 25. Agenda Welcome and introducing the session Sandrine Dixson-Declève, CPSL Overview of wedging the near-term emissions gap Niklas Höhne, Ecofys Four potential areas for scaling up Nicolette Bartlett, CPSL An update on the work of the Climate and Clean Air Coalition Sophie Bonnard, CCAC 2’ 10’ 10’ 7’ Bottom-up initiatives and the role of governments Harri Laurikka, Chief Negotiator for Finland and Chairperson of NOAK Ivo de Zwaan, Head of Delegation for the Netherlands Role of the private sector in helping to close the emissions gap Philippe Joubert, WBCSD and EU Corporate Leaders Group Q&A and discussion Facilitated by Sandrine Dixson-Declève, CPSL 24 © ECOFYS & CPSL | 14/11/2013 | Ecofys & CPSL 15’ 7’ 30’
  • 26. END 25 © ECOFYS & CPSL | 14/11/2013 | Ecofys & CPSL

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