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Can we achieve 100% renewables? Flexibility options in the electricity system

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Increasing flexibility is key for the reliable operation of future power systems with very high penetration levels of variable renewable energy sources. This presentation draws on findings from a …

Increasing flexibility is key for the reliable operation of future power systems with very high penetration levels of variable renewable energy sources. This presentation draws on findings from a study Ecofys carried out for the European Copper Institute. It provides a comprehensive assessment of the complete spectrum of flexibility options and identifies key barriers for their deployment. The presentation was held by Dr. Georgios Papaefthymiou, Consultant Power Systems & Markets at Ecofys, during a webinar on 22 May 2014.

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  • 1. Dr. G. Papaefthymiou 22/05/2014 Can we achieve 100% renewables? Flexibility options in the electricity system Webinar Leonardo Energy
  • 2. © ECOFYS | | Overview 1. Definition of power system flexibility 2. Need for Flexibility 3. Overview of Flexibility Options 4. Mapping of Flexibility Options 5. Conclusions and recommendations 22/05/2014 Dr. G. Papaefthymiou
  • 3. © ECOFYS | | Overview 1. Definition of power system flexibility 2. Need for Flexibility 3. Overview of Flexibility Options 4. Mapping of Flexibility Options 5. Conclusions and recommendations 22/05/2014 Dr. G. Papaefthymiou
  • 4. © ECOFYS | |© ECOFYS | | The key physical components of flexibility: 22/05/2014 Demand Supply Network System System Demand: partly controllable Network: ability for spatial matching System: operational rules Supply: controllable or intermittent (VRES*) Dr. G. Papaefthymiou > Power systems are designed to ensure a spatial and temporal balancing of generation and consumption at all times. *VRES: Variable Renewable Energy Sources
  • 5. © ECOFYS | |© ECOFYS | | Definition of Power System Flexibility > Power system flexibility represents the extent to which a power system can adapt electricity generation and consumption as needed to maintain system stability in a cost-effective manner. > Flexibility is the ability of a power system to maintain continuous service in the face of rapid and large swings in supply or demand. > Measures of flexibility: – Ramp rates, minimum up/down times, and start-up/shut-down times are commonly used indicators of flexibility, measured as MW available for ramping up and down over time > Role of power networks: – Key enablers of flexibility, since they define the spatial dimension of balancing and thus to which extent flexibility resources can be shared between adjacent areas. 22/05/2014 Dr. G. Papaefthymiou
  • 6. © ECOFYS | |© ECOFYS | | Overview 1. Definition of power system flexibility 2. Need for Flexibility 3. Overview of Flexibility Options 4. Mapping of Flexibility Options 5. Conclusions and recommendations 22/05/2014 Dr. G. Papaefthymiou
  • 7. © ECOFYS | |© ECOFYS | | Daily patterns of net electricity demand for different VRES penetration levels 22/05/2014 -20 0 20 40 60 80 SystemNetDemand(GW) No RES 20% 40% 60% 80% Hours Dr. G. Papaefthymiou
  • 8. © ECOFYS | |© ECOFYS | | Hourly ramping range of net electricity demand for different VRES penetration levels 22/05/2014 Dr. G. Papaefthymiou -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 SystemNetDemandHourlyRamps(GW/h) No RES 20% 40% 60% 80% Hours
  • 9. © ECOFYS | |© ECOFYS | |22/05/2014 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 Spotprice[€/MWh] Generation/Demand[GW] Kernenergie Braunkohle Kohle Erdgas Öl Andere Pumpspeicher Laufwasser Saisonspeicher Wind Solar Unbekannt Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday Nuclear Lignite Oil Hydro storage Other Natural Gas Pump storage unknown Run of River Export Wholesale price Coal Demand Oversupply events already happen Oversupply event: High RES Low Demand CGs at their limit Source: EEX, ENTSO-E, the example shows German ex-post data for one week in February 2011 Dr. G. Papaefthymiou
  • 10. © ECOFYS | |© ECOFYS | | Dynamic range of net electricity demand for different VRES penetration levels 22/05/2014 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 SystemNetDemand(GW) No RES 20% 40% 60% 80% Hours BASELOAD MIDLOAD PEAK LOAD Dr. G. Papaefthymiou
  • 11. © ECOFYS | |© ECOFYS | | Need for flexibility > Traditional power systems: Need for flexibility because of demand variations and sudden loss of generation units – variability of demand – uncertainty of supply • Flexibility provided by supply side (power plant fleet) > Introduction of variable RES: – Increasing the need for flexibility: Increase in variability and uncertainty in the supply side – Reduction of the flexibility potential: VRES displace part of the conventional generation capacity (impact on portfolios and operational) • New flexibility options are needed 22/05/2014 Dr. G. Papaefthymiou
  • 12. © ECOFYS | |© ECOFYS | | Impacts of VRES on the flexibility timeline 22/05/2014 Long term planning flexibility Does my system have sufficient resources to manage operational variability? Operational planning flexibility: How many flexibility resources should be committed to ensure secure operation? Operational Flexibility: Which are the most economic resources? Dr. G. Papaefthymiou Source: H. Holttinen, A. Tuohy, M. Milligan, E. Lannoye, V. Silva, S. Muller, L. Soder, The flexibility workout: Managing variable resources and assessing the need for power system mod-ification, IEEE Power & Energy Magazine, November/December 2013
  • 13. © ECOFYS | |© ECOFYS | | Overview 1. Definition of power system flexibility 2. Need for Flexibility 3. Overview of Flexibility Options 4. Mapping of Flexibility Options 5. Conclusions and recommendations 22/05/2014 Dr. G. Papaefthymiou
  • 14. © ECOFYS | |© ECOFYS | | Categorisation of flexibility options System Energy Storage Supply Net- work Demand 22/05/2014 Dr. G. Papaefthymiou
  • 15. © ECOFYS | |© ECOFYS | | Overview of flexibility options 22/05/2014 Supply Demand Energy Storage System Net- work 1. Flex Coal, 2. Gas 3. Oil, 4. Biogas, 5. CHP, 6. Nuclear 7. VRES 8. Pump storage, 9. (AA-)CAES 10. Flywheels 11. Batteries 12 Hydrogen (Power to Gas) 13. Demand Response - Energy intensive industries - Services - Smart applications 14. Electric vehicles 15. Heat pumps 16. Resistance heating 17. Network expansion (Installation of lines) - Add transmission capacity (HVAC /HVDC) - Increase meshing, alleviate congestions 18. Power flow control (“smart“ devices) - Flow control devices PST, FACTS, HVDC 19. Market Rules 20. Market integration: - Expansion of markets - Expansion of control zones Dr. G. Papaefthymiou
  • 16. © ECOFYS | |© ECOFYS | | Overview 1. Definition of power system flexibility 2. Need for Flexibility 3. Overview of Flexibility Options 4. Mapping of Flexibility Options 5. Conclusions and recommendations 22/05/2014 Dr. G. Papaefthymiou
  • 17. © ECOFYS | |© ECOFYS | | Mapping of flexibility options 22/05/2014 Short term flexibility Long term flexibility Lower ST/MT flex potential, unit commitment constraints Mid term flexibility SUPPLY Coal Lower ST/MT flex potential, unit commitment constraints Lignite Lower ST flex potential, unit commitment constraints CCGT Flex mode can be enhanced Flexible – high variable costsOCGT High variable costs, limited local supplyBiogas Stochastic behaviour – Perceptual and political concerns(waste of ´free´ energy)VRES APC Flexible –high variable costs, emissionsICE Nuclear Constrained due to primary operationLarge CHP Constrained due to primary operationMicro CHP DEMAND Industrial DR High potential – flexibility constrained by primary industrial process Small scale DR High potential – flexibility depends on user behaviour Electric Vehicles Heat pumps Electric heating STORAGE Pumped Hydro Low potential for extra expansion AA-CAES Low efficiency, restricted potential for expansion Very high investment costsFlywheels Technology development needed for efficiency improvementBatteries Low efficiency – option for seasonal storagePower to gas Constrained by transport sector/primary operation Constrained by heat sector/primary operation Constrained by heat sector, low efficiency Red options are small-scale distributed technologies – communication & control infrastructure key enabler Bold/Underscore options are mature technologies – maturity of most demand and storage options is low Dr. G. Papaefthymiou
  • 18. © ECOFYS | |© ECOFYS | | Market barriers 22/05/2014 Dr. G. Papaefthymiou -20000 0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 1 5001 Ohne EE 20% EE 40% EE 0 100000 200000 300000 400000 500000 600000 700000 800000 0% 2% 4% 6% 7% 9% 11% 13% 15% 17% 19% 20% 22% 24% 26% 28% 30% 32% 34% 35% 37% 39% 41% 43% 45% 47% 48% 50% 52% 54% 56% 58% 60% 61% 63% 65% 67% 69% 71% 73% 74% 76% 78% 80% 82% 84% 86% 87% 89% 91% 93% 95% 97% 99% Grundlasttechnologie Mittellasttechnologie Spitzenlasttechnologie Costs[€/kWa] time [h] 87600 87600 Demand[GW] 0% VRES 40% VRES Peak load technology Middle load technology Base load technology 20% VRES Residual load curve shifts because of additional VRES time [h] Base load technology Middle load technology Peak load technology 0% VRES 20% VRES 40% VRES > VRES have low marginal costs – Downward pressure to electricity prices, – Reduced full-load hours for conventional units > Still, conventional peak power plants are needed to meet load in times of low VRES generation. > How to incentivize flexibility? – Supply options are driven by market prices – Flexibility options are driven by market price variability (spreads)
  • 19. © ECOFYS | |© ECOFYS | | Overview 1. Definition of power system flexibility 2. Need for Flexibility 3. Overview of Flexibility Options 4. Mapping of Flexibility Options 5. Conclusions and recommendations 22/05/2014 Dr. G. Papaefthymiou
  • 20. © ECOFYS | |© ECOFYS | | The Flexibility Gap 22/05/2014 Dr. G. Papaefthymiou Low High Existing Supply Flex New Supply Flex Flexibility VRES FlexibilityGap Storage Flex Demand Flex
  • 21. © ECOFYS | |© ECOFYS | | Conclusions and recommendations 22/05/2014 Dr. G. Papaefthymiou > A flexibility gap is created by the shift towards high-VRES systems > New flexibility options in demand and storage require control and communication infrastructure > VRES control is unavoidable for higher RES shares > Changing the market is needed for reducing the flexibility gap > Incentives and systems for demand management are needed > Extending the market size is a no regret solution
  • 22. © ECOFYS | |22/05/2014 Questions? > Dr. Georgios Papaefthymiou Ecofys Germany GmbH Am Karlsbad 11 10785 Berlin Germany E: g.papaefthymiou@ecofys.com I: www.ecofys.com Dr. G. Papaefthymiou

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