E-UpDates-November11—Global and Indian Economic Indicators

November 2011Surge Research Supportwww.ecofin-surge.co.in

Table of Contents Contents Page 1. Important Rates to Remember ………… 3 2. Indian Economy — Growth Indicators ………… 4 3. Indian Economy — Price Indicators ………… 6 4. Indian Economy — Banking Indicators ………… 7 5. Indian Economy — Exchange Rates ………… 9 6. Indian Economy — Interest Rates ………… 11 7. Indian Economy — Stock Markets ………… 14 8. Indian Economy — Capital Flows ………… 17 9. Indian Economy — Commodity Markets ………… 20 10. Global Economy — Economic Indicators ………… 22 11. Global Economy — Stock Indices ………… 23 12. Global Economy — Commodity Indices 24 Special Feature — RBIs Review of Monetary Policy for Q2 of 2011-12 25 www.ecofin-surge.co.inE-UpDates November 2011 2 Surge Research Support

GDP IIP* 2010-11 8.50% Aug-11 4.10% 2009-10 8.00% Aug-10 4.50% As on 31-Oct-11 30-Oct-10 As on 31-Oct-11 30-Oct-10Bank rate 6.00% 6.00% CRR 6.00% 6.00%Repo rate 8.50% 6.00% Base Rate 10.00-10.75% 7.50-8.00%Reverse repo 7.50% 5.00% CMR 6.90-8.62% 4.75-8.00% Inflation (WPI) Oil Price (World Average) Sep-11 9.72% Oct-11 106.04 Sep-10 8.98% Oct-10 79.32 Spot Price FOB $ per barrel $/Rupee Rate Purchasing Managers Index October 31-Oct-11 48.87 HSBC Markit Mnfg. PMI 52.0 29-Oct-10 44.54 HSBC Markit Services PMI 49.1RBI Reference rate *New Series with Base : 2004-05=100. For Global rates visit: http://www.ecofin-surge.co.in/global%20statistics.html For explanations visit http://www.ecofin-surge.co.in/terminology.htmlE-UpDates November 2011 3 Surge Research Support

Growth Indicators GDP Growth Rates Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY 2011-12 7.7* 7.7* 2010-11 8.8* 8.9 8.3 7.8 8.5GDP[at Constant(2004-05) prices] Q1 Rs.Crore YoY Growth Q1 Rs.Crore YoY Growth 2010-11* (Share in 2011-12* (Share in GDP) GDP) (%) (%) 1 Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing 160,771 2.4 167,091 3.9 2 Mining & Quarrying 26,354 7.4 26,832 1.8 3 Manufacturing 183,488 10.6 196,699 7.2 4 Electricity, Gas & Water Supply. 23,204 5.5 25,042 7.9 5 Construction 93,514 7.7 94,639 1.2 6 Trade, Hotels, Transport and Communication 299,600 12.1 337,872 12.8 7 Financing, Insurance, Real Estate & Business Services. 205,870 9.8 224,574 9.1 8 Community, Social & Personal Services. 145,485 8.2 153,589 5.6 9 GDP at factor cost (1 to 8) 1,138,286 8.8 1,226,339 7.7 10 Private final consumption expenditure 748,395 9.5 (61.7) 795,683 6.3 (60.5) 11 Government final consumption expenditure 134,161 6.7 (11.1) 136,935 2.1 (10.4) 12 Gross fixed capital formation 380,544 11.1 (31.4) 410,533 7.9 (31.2) 13 Changes in stocks 43,788 (3.6) 45,852 (3.5) 14 Valuables 29,240 (2.4) 40,723 (3.1) 15 Exports 257,587 9.8 (21.2) 320,247 24.3 (24.3) 16 Less Imports 351,037 15.2 (28.9) 433,824 23.6 (33.0) 17 Discrepancies -30,058 (-2.5) -755 (-0.1) 18 GDP at market price (10 to 17) 1,212,620 9.1 (100) 1,315,395 8.5 (100) *Estimates based on the New series of IIP. E-UpDates November 2011 4 Surge Research Support

2009-10 (QE) Rs.Crore YoY Growth 2010-11 Rs.Crore YoY Growth (%) (RE) (%) 18 GDP at market price 48,69,317 9.1 5,298,129 8.8 19 Net Indirect Taxes (Less Subsidies ) 375,574 420,287 9 GDP at factor cost (18-19) 44,93,743 8.0 4,877,842 8.5 20 Net factor income from abroad -28,889 -43,083 21 Gross national product at factor cost 44,64,854 7.9 4,834,759 8.3 (9 + 20) 23 Net national product/National Income at factor cost (Less Depreciation) 39,46,540 7.5 4,259,782 7.9 24 Population (in million) 1170 1186 25 Per capita income (Rs.) (23/24) 33731 6.1 35917 6.5 Aug-11 Aug-10 Aug-11 FY2011-12 * FY2010-11* Production Index Index 2004-05 =100 Change (YoY, %) (Index of Industrial Production) 166.5 157.7 4.1 5.6 8.71. Mining 117.6 121.7 -3.4 0.2 7.72. Manufacturing 172.6 165.2 4.5 6.0 9.23. Electricity 149.4 136.4 9.5 9.5 4.1 *Apr-Aug. The base year of IIP has been revised by the CSO from 1993-94 to 2004-05. 200 IIP-Annual Averages (Base : 2004-05=100) 190 180 Mining & 170 165.4 166.5 Quarrying (141.75) 160 152.9 Manufacturing 150 (755.27) 176.7 175.6 140 161.3 130 Electricity (103.16) 149.0 138.0 120 131.0 130.8 125.2 124.5 110 100 General Index (1000.0) 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 E-UpDates November 2011 5 Surge Research Support

InflationWholesale Price Index All Primary Non-food Crude(Base: 2004-05=100) Food Articles Manufactured Commodities Articles Articles Petroleum(Inflation %) ProductsJuly - 2011 154.0 (9.20) 197.9 192.8 175.8 282.5 137.7August - 2011 154.9 (9.78) 199.6 193.7 181.1 280.8 138.3September - 2011 155.8 (9.72) 202.6 196.5 184.4 274.6 138.6 All India General Index Rural Areas Urban Areas Industrial Rural Agricultural (All Groups (All Groups) (All Groups) Workers Labourers Labourers combined) Base Base Base Base 1986- Base 1986-Consumer Price Index Base 2010=100 2010=100 2001=100 87=100 87=100(Inflation %) 2010=100July - 2011 110.5 (F) 111.7 (F) 108.9 (F) 193 (8.43) 604 (9.03) 604 (9.03)August - 2011 111.7 (P) 113.1 (P) 109.8 (P) 194 (8.99) 610 (9.71) 610 (9.53)September - 2011 113.1 (P) 114.6 (P) 111.1 (P) 197(10.06) 614 (9.25) 615 (9.43)F: Final; P: Provisional WPI (Base 2004-05=100) New Series Weekly Inflation (WPI) 160 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 Date Food price Primary articles 6-Aug-11 9.03 11.64 150 13-Aug-11 9.8 12.40 20-Aug-11 10.05 12.93 140 27-Aug-11 9.66 13.34 3-Sep-11 9.47 13.04 130 10-Sep-11 8.84 12.17 17-Sep-11 9.13 11.43 120 9.41 10.84 24-Sep-11 1-Oct-11 9.32 10.06 110 10.60 11.18 8-Oct-11 15-Oct-11 11.43 11.75 100 22-Oct-11 12.21 12.08 Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar E-UpDates November 2011 6 Surge Research Support

COMPONENTS & SOURCES OF MONEY STOCK (M3) AND THEIR VARIATIONS (Rs crores) March 31 September# October* 2011 2011 2011 M3 6,499,548 6,858,829 6,958,664 % change during the month 2.21 0.35 1.46 % change since March 31 16.49 5.53 7.06(A) Components of M3 ( 1+2+3+4) 1 Currency with the public 914,197 941,258 952,190 % change during the month 0.95 (0.17) 1.16 % change since March 31 19.03 2.96 4.16 2 Demand deposits with banks 717,660 637,922 646,007 % change during the month 6.51 0.48 1.27 % change since March 31 0.49 (11.11) (9.98) 3 Time deposits with banks 4,863,979 5,277,306 5,359,307 % change during the month 1.84 0.45 1.55 % change since March 31 18.82 8.50 10.18 4 Other deposits with RBI 3,713 2,342 1,160 % change during the month 2.63 (35.14) (50.47) % change since March 31 (1.90) (36.92) (68.76)(B) Sources of M3 (5+6+7+8-9) 5 Net bank credit to govt.(i+ii) 1,982,771 2,137,832 2,181,908 % change during the month 6.67 (0.53) 2.06 % change since March 31 18.85 7.82 10.04 i RBIs credit 396,555 356,660 394,737 % change during the month 32.09 (3.12) 10.68 % change since March 31 80.07 (10.06) (0.46) ii Other banks credit 1,586,216 1,781,172 1,787,171 % change during the month 1.77 0.00 0.34 % change since March 31 9.54 12.29 12.67 6 Bank credit to commercial sector (i+ii) 4,235,406 4,389,661 4,447,127 % change during the month 3.81 1.24 1.31 % change since March 31 21.59 3.64 5.00 i RBIs credit 2,164 1,783 1,878 % change during the month 37.83 (3.05) 5.33 % change since March 31 62.95 (17.61) (13.22) ii Other banks credit 4,233,242 4,387,878 4,445,249 % change during the month 3.80 1.24 1.31 % change since March 31 21.58 3.65 5.01 7 Net foreign exchange assets of the banking 1,393,327 1,549,140 1,598,117 sector % change during the month (0.24) 3.57 3.16 % change since March 31 9.28 11.18 14.70 8 Governments currency liabilities to the 12,724 12,959 13,312 public % change during the month 4.71 - 2.72 % change since March 31 16.53 1.85 4.62 9 NNML of the banking sector (i+ii) 1,124,680 1,230,764 1,281,800 % change during the month 13.79 6.21 4.15 % change since March 31 31.10 9.43 13.97 i RBIs NNML 368,274 526,650 578,538 % change during the month (0.87) 18.00 9.85 % change since March 31 18.68 43.00 57.09 ii Other banks NNML(Residual) 756,406 704,114 703,262 % change during the month 22.62 (1.18) (0.12) % change since March 31 38.13 (6.91) (7.03) Note: (i) Figures in parentheses denote negative numbers; (ii) # data are of September 23, 2011; (iii) * data are of October 21, 2011.E-UpDates November 2011 7 Surge Research Support

COMPONENTS & SOURCES OF RESERVE MONEY AND THEIR VARIATIONS (Rs crore) March September October 2011 2011 2011 Reserve Money : 1,376,881 1,402,145 1,385,212 % change during the month 7.64 2.39 (1.21) % change since March 31 19.18 1.83 0.61(A) Components of Reserve Money (1+2+3) 1 Currency in circulation 949,659 976,318 1,012,140 % change during the month 0.93 (0.73) 3.67 % change since March 31 18.83 2.81 6.58 2 Bankers deposits with RBI 423,509 423,286 371,661 % change during the month 26.58 10.75 (12.20) % change since March 31 20.21 (0.05) (12.24) 3 "Other" deposits with RBI 3,713 2,541 1,411 % change during the month 2.63 (29.63) (44.47) % change since March 31 -1.90 (31.56) (62.00) (B) Sources of Reserve Money (4+5+6+7-8) 4 Net RBI credit to Government 396,555 406,753 391,984 % change during the month 32.09 10.49 (3.63) % change since March 31 80.07 2.57 (1.15) RBI credit to Banks & Commercial Sector 7,324 6,120 5,657 5 % change during the month 46.60 70.90 (7.57) % change since March 31 193.31 (16.44) (22.76) 5.1 RBI credit to banks(including NABARD) 5,159 3,990 3,779 % change during the month 50.58 128.92 (5.29) % change since March 31 341.32 (22.66) (26.75) 5.2 RBI credit to Commercial Sector 2,165 2,130 1,878 % change during the month 37.90 15.89 (11.83) % change since March 31 63.03 (1.62) (13.26) 6 Net Foreign Exchange Assets of RBI 1,328,553 1,491,104 1,530,763 % change during the month -0.35 4.20 2.66 % change since March 31 7.84 12.24 15.22 7 Govts Currency Liabilities to the Public 12,724 13,312 13,312 % change during the month 4.71 2.72 - % change since March 31 16.53 4.62 4.62 8 Net Non-monetary Liabilities of RBI 368,274 515,142 556,503 % change during the month -0.87 15.42 8.03 % change since March 31 18.68 39.88 51.11 Note: (i) Figures in parentheses denote negative numbers.E-UpDates November 2011 8 Surge Research Support

Exchange Rate Movement of the Rupee (INR) Average of Buying & Selling Dollar Euro Date Day Spot 1 Month 3 Month 6 Month Spot 1 Month 3 Month 6 Month 3-Oct-11 Mon 49.18 49.47 49.83 50.09 65.71 66.07 66.54 66.89 4-Oct-11 Tue 49.36 49.61 49.95 50.14 65.09 65.40 65.85 66.10 7-Oct-11 Fri 49.15 49.41 49.73 49.98 66.02 66.35 66.76 67.09 10-Oct-11 Mon 48.94 49.20 49.56 49.88 66.53 66.87 67.33 67.77 11-Oct-11 Tue 49.34 49.57 49.92 50.20 67.11 67.41 67.86 68.23 12-Oct-11 Wed 48.96 49.20 49.57 49.88 67.44 67.74 68.23 68.65 13-Oct-11 Thu 49.14 49.39 49.76 50.08 67.47 67.80 68.27 68.70 14-Oct-11 Fri 49.04 49.30 49.69 50.04 67.63 67.97 68.47 68.95 18-Oct-11 Tue 49.34 49.62 49.99 50.34 67.56 67.91 68.41 68.87 19-Oct-11 Wed 49.14 49.41 49.83 50.25 68.03 68.39 68.94 69.51 20-Oct-11 Thu 49.71 50.00 50.38 50.78 68.56 68.95 69.45 69.98 21-Oct-11 Fri 50.12 50.42 50.80 51.16 68.97 69.37 69.87 70.36 24-Oct-11 Mon 49.89 50.19 50.60 51.00 68.99 69.38 69.93 70.47 28-Oct-11 Fri 48.85 49.14 49.55 49.98 69.18 69.57 70.12 70.71 31-Oct-11 Mon 48.71 48.96 49.40 49.86 68.20 68.55 69.13 69.76 Pound Yen Date Day Spot 1 Month 3 Month 6 Month Spot 1 Month 3 Month 6 Month 3-Oct-11 Mon 76.33 76.75 77.28 77.62 63.98 64.38 64.89 65.32 4-Oct-11 Tue 75.86 76.23 76.73 76.97 64.40 64.75 65.25 65.60 7-Oct-11 Fri 76.25 76.62 77.08 77.43 64.10 64.46 64.93 65.35 10-Oct-11 Mon 76.60 76.98 77.52 77.97 63.82 64.18 64.71 65.22 11-Oct-11 Tue 77.20 77.55 78.06 78.45 64.37 64.69 65.20 65.66 12-Oct-11 Wed 77.17 77.52 78.08 78.52 63.83 64.17 64.72 65.21 13-Oct-11 Thu 77.17 77.54 78.08 78.53 63.85 64.19 64.71 65.23 14-Oct-11 Fri 77.33 77.72 78.28 78.81 63.67 64.04 64.58 65.16 18-Oct-11 Tue 77.64 78.04 78.60 79.09 64.38 64.77 65.31 65.87 19-Oct-11 Wed 77.64 78.06 78.67 79.28 64.00 64.38 64.97 65.62 20-Oct-11 Thu 78.43 78.87 79.42 79.99 64.72 65.12 65.66 66.28 21-Oct-11 Fri 79.48 79.94 80.51 81.03 65.31 65.72 66.27 66.85 24-Oct-11 Mon 79.42 79.88 80.49 81.06 65.55 65.97 66.56 67.19 28-Oct-11 Fri 78.65 79.11 79.72 80.34 64.33 64.72 65.31 65.97 31-Oct-11 Mon 78.00 78.39 79.04 79.71 62.49 62.84 63.45 64.15E-UpDates November 2011 9 Surge Research Support

Exchange Rate Movement of the Rupee (INR) Annualised Premia Dollar Euro Date Day 1 Month 3 Month 6 Month 1 Month 3 Month 6 Month 3-Oct-11 Mon 7.18 5.35 3.71 6.87 5.18 3.62 4-Oct-11 Tue 6.25 4.91 3.21 5.96 4.79 3.14 7-Oct-11 Fri 6.41 4.76 3.39 6.17 4.56 3.27 10-Oct-11 Mon 6.43 5.12 3.88 6.21 4.90 3.75 11-Oct-11 Tue 5.74 4.79 3.52 5.40 4.55 3.37 12-Oct-11 Wed 6.04 5.08 3.79 5.47 4.80 3.62 13-Oct-11 Thu 6.28 5.14 3.86 5.94 4.83 3.66 14-Oct-11 Fri 6.55 5.45 4.14 6.11 5.03 3.94 18-Oct-11 Tue 6.90 5.33 4.07 6.49 5.16 3.92 19-Oct-11 Wed 6.93 5.74 4.57 6.54 5.46 4.38 20-Oct-11 Thu 7.36 5.50 4.35 7.04 5.29 4.17 21-Oct-11 Fri 7.42 5.54 4.21 7.09 5.29 4.06 24-Oct-11 Mon 7.46 5.82 4.50 7.09 5.56 4.35 28-Oct-11 Fri 7.36 5.86 4.68 6.98 5.58 4.47 31-Oct-11 Mon 6.47 5.79 4.78 6.34 5.57 4.63 Pound Yen Date Day 1 Month 3 Month 6 Month 1 Month 3 Month 6 Month 3-Oct-11 Mon 6.89 5.07 3.42 7.77 5.84 4.23 4-Oct-11 Tue 6.01 4.67 2.95 6.72 5.42 3.76 7-Oct-11 Fri 5.98 4.45 3.12 7.05 5.28 3.95 10-Oct-11 Mon 6.12 4.86 3.61 7.08 5.70 4.44 11-Oct-11 Tue 5.58 4.53 3.28 6.23 5.26 4.06 12-Oct-11 Wed 5.58 4.80 3.53 6.68 5.70 4.39 13-Oct-11 Thu 5.91 4.80 3.56 6.58 5.50 4.35 14-Oct-11 Fri 6.22 5.01 3.85 7.30 5.87 4.74 18-Oct-11 Tue 6.44 5.04 3.77 7.42 5.90 4.67 19-Oct-11 Wed 6.61 5.41 4.26 7.36 6.17 5.13 20-Oct-11 Thu 6.94 5.17 4.02 7.77 5.97 4.90 21-Oct-11 Fri 7.17 5.26 3.93 7.90 6.01 4.77 24-Oct-11 Mon 7.10 5.50 4.17 7.97 6.31 5.07 28-Oct-11 Fri 7.17 5.55 4.34 7.62 6.23 5.18 31-Oct-11 Mon 6.09 5.41 4.43 7.03 6.29 5.40E-UpDates November 2011 10 Surge Research Support

Money Market Rates & Liquidity Over Net Injection(+)/ Repo Rates night RBI Absorption(-) of Liquidity (Repo/Reverse Rates Call LAF (Rs. Crore) Repo) (%) Money* CBLO* Mibor USD Libor 1-Oct-11 0.0 8.25/7.25% 8.04 5.98 3-Oct-11 14660.0 8.20 7.85 8.23 0.144 4-Oct-11 -18905.0 8.09 7.49 8.08 0.143 5-Oct-11 -22625.0 7.79 7.24 7.54 0.143 7-Oct-11 8280.0 7.61 7.87 8.07 0.139 8-Oct-11 0.0 8.29 8.30 10-Oct-11 71815.0 8.28 8.19 8.30 0.139 11-Oct-11 67820.0 8.28 8.21 8.30 0.142 12-Oct-11 57795.0 8.27 8.22 8.30 0.141 13-Oct-11 55725.0 8.27 8.22 8.30 0.141 14-Oct-11 54270.0 8.16 8.04 8.30 0.139 15-Oct-11 0.0 7.78 8.14 17-Oct-11 53635.0 8.27 8.13 8.30 0.143 18-Oct-11 41765.0 8.25 8.21 8.28 0.141 19-Oct-11 56360.0 8.23 8.23 8.29 0.141 20-Oct-11 75885.0 8.23 8.24 8.30 0.142 21-Oct-11 79770.0 8.31 8.38 8.30 0.142 22-Oct-11 0.0 8.31 8.26 24-Oct-11 98285.0 8.32 8.23 8.33 0.142 25-Oct-11 109055.0 8.5/7.5% 8.39 8.19 8.45 0.142 28-Oct-11 58445.0 8.34 8.34 8.58 0.142 29-Oct-11 0.0 8.27 8.23 31-Oct-11 52385.0 8.5/7.5% 8.54 8.44 8.58 0.142*Weighted.Avg.Rates Call Money Mibor USD Libor 8.60 0.145 8.40 0.143 8.20 0.141 8.00 0.139 7.80 7.60 0.137 7.40 0.135 1-Oct-11 3-Oct-11 5-Oct-11 7-Oct-11 9-Oct-11 11-Oct-11 13-Oct-11 15-Oct-11 17-Oct-11 19-Oct-11 21-Oct-11 23-Oct-11 25-Oct-11 27-Oct-11 29-Oct-11 31-Oct-11 E-UpDates November 2011 11 Surge Research Support

Debt Market YieldsConstant Maturity Yields for Government Bonds - October 2011 >10 Year & >15 Year & Date 3 months 6 months 1 year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 7 Year 10 Year <=15 Year <= 20 Year >20 Year 3-Oct-11 8.39 8.51 8.54 8.70 8.72 4-Oct-11 8.33 8.38 8.39 8.33 8.53 8.57 8.72 8.71 5-Oct-11 8.36 8.39 8.50 8.55 8.59 8.74 8.71 7-Oct-11 8.38 8.45 8.35 8.63 8.68 8.80 8.92 10-Oct-11 8.49 8.70 8.74 8.85 8.94 11-Oct-11 8.42 8.44 8.74 8.93 8.92 8.95 12-Oct-11 8.35 8.52 8.82 8.73 8.67 8.89 8.93 13-Oct-11 8.47 8.55 8.49 8.74 8.89 8.87 14-Oct-11 8.44 8.58 8.54 8.78 8.77 8.94 8.95 17-Oct-11 8.45 8.60 8.64 8.82 8.84 8.95 8.95 18-Oct-11 8.73 8.75 8.78 8.93 8.95 19-Oct-11 8.58 8.55 8.75 8.77 8.79 8.93 8.95 20-Oct-11 8.62 8.42 8.67 8.74 8.78 8.81 8.91 8.95 21-Oct-11 8.61 8.39 8.62 8.73 8.82 8.84 8.90 8.96 24-Oct-11 8.60 8.65 8.68 8.82 8.87 8.92 8.97 25-Oct-11 8.64 8.65 8.72 8.73 8.79 8.88 8.91 28-Oct-11 8.58 8.67 8.92 8.85 8.94 8.97 8.94 31-Oct-11 8.59 8.62 8.65 8.89 8.87 8.93 8.97 8.97Month Average 8.48 8.53 8.53 8.82 8.45 8.75 8.73 8.77 8.88 8.90Bond Yield Spreads over Gilts - October 2011 Maturity/ Type 6 months 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10 Year 15 Year AAA PSU 0.89 1.08 0.94 0.93 0.89 0.84 0.79 0.75 0.75 0.76 0.76 0.63 Bank 0.84 1.05 0.95 0.93 0.90 0.86 0.83 0.79 0.80 0.81 0.82 0.68 NBFC 1.08 1.30 1.32 1.27 1.22 1.09 1.10 1.05 1.07 1.08 1.09 0.99 Corporate 1.14 1.45 1.15 1.11 1.08 1.05 1.00 0.96 0.96 0.97 0.97 0.82 AA+ PSU 1.01 1.22 1.08 1.08 1.04 0.99 0.94 0.90 0.90 0.91 0.91 0.78 Bank 0.96 1.16 1.06 1.09 1.05 1.01 0.96 0.92 0.93 0.95 0.95 0.83 NBFC 1.23 1.49 1.54 1.64 1.61 1.58 1.55 1.51 1.48 1.46 1.42 1.39 Corporate 1.29 1.60 1.35 1.33 1.33 1.32 1.29 1.26 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.10 AA PSU 1.15 1.36 1.25 1.25 1.21 1.18 1.15 1.12 1.11 1.10 1.08 0.95 Bank 1.09 1.31 1.21 1.25 1.22 1.20 1.17 1.14 1.13 1.12 1.11 0.97 NBFC 1.47 1.69 1.69 1.82 1.86 1.89 1.85 1.81 1.78 1.75 1.71 1.57 Corporate 1.49 1.85 1.60 1.58 1.58 1.57 1.54 1.51 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.35 E-UpDates November 2011 12 Surge Research Support

Weighted Average YTMs Weighted Average YTMs 8.2 8.3 8.4 8.5 8.6 8.7 8.8 8.9 9.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 October 2012 April 2012 September 2013 May 2012 March 2014 June 2014E-UpDates November 2011 April 2016 July 2015 October 2015 January 2017 September 2016 September 2016 July 2017 August 2017 April 201813 August 2018 August 2019 April 2021 August 2020 Maturity Year July 2021 Debt Market Yields Maturity Year August 2022 August 2021 Yields of Gsecs Traded in October 2011 August 2022 September 2022 August 2023 August 2024 August 2027 August 2025 March 2026 September 2027Surge Research Support Yields of Benchmark Corporate Bonds (AAA) - October 2011 September 2026 February 2032 August 2027 August 2028 July 2040 August 2029

Equity Market TurnoverBSE Equity Market BSE Sensitive Index, Sensex (30 Scrips) (1978-79=100) Average Daily Market No of co.s No. of scrips Turnover Turnover Capitalisation Month-Month/Year listed* traded (Rs.cr) (Rs.cr) (Rs.cr)* High Low Closing P/E P/B Div Yield Jul-11 5096 3039 59076.0 2813.1 6614745.5 19131.7 18131.86 18197.2 19.60 3.44 1.43 Aug-11 5086 2991 52760.3 2512.4 6058776.3 18440.07 15765.53 16676.75 18.36 3.34 1.51 Sep-11 5092 2922 53625.9 2553.6 5952377.6 17211.8 15801.01 16453.76 18.35 3.36 1.52NSE Capital Market Segment S&P CNX Nifty (50 Scrips)(Nov.3, 1993=100) Average Daily Market No of co.s No. of scrips Turnover Turnover Capitalisation Month- Month/Year listed* traded (Rs.cr) (Rs.cr) (Rs.cr)* High Low Closing P/E P/B Div Yield Jul-11 1606 1600 230003.0 10953.0 6462338.0 5740.40 5453.95 5482.00 20.49 3.47 1.27 Aug-11 1615 1611 235253.0 11203.0 5921684.0 5551.90 4720.00 5001.00 18.29 3.08 1.42 Sep-11 1622 1698 235270.0 11203.0 5820334.0 5169.25 4758.85 4943.25 18.11 2.96 1.51*End of the Month. Derivatives TurnoverBSE Derivatives (F&O) Trades Index Futures Stock Futures Index Options Stock Options Total Average Notional Notional Daily No. of Turnover (Rs. No. of Turnover No. of Turnover No. of Turnover No. of Turnover TurnoverMonth / Year contracts cr.) contracts (Rs. cr.) contracts (Rs. cr.) contracts (Rs. cr.) contracts (Rs. cr.) (Rs. cr.) Jul-11 706 19.76 532 15.58 30 0.85 …. … 1268 36.18 1.72 Aug-11 428 10.81 1736 47.02 …. … …. … 2164 57.82 2.75 Sep-11 19303 474.08 7759 241.04 4627 122.25 93 2.21 31782 839.58 39.98NSE Derivatives (F&O) Segment Index Futures Stock Futures Index Options Stock Options Total Average Notional Notional Daily No. of Turnover (Rs. No. of Turnover No. of Turnover No. of Turnover No. of Turnover TurnoverMonth / Year contracts cr.) contracts (Rs. cr.) contracts (Rs. cr.) contracts (Rs. cr.) contracts (Rs. cr.) (Rs. cr.) Jul-11 10048859 265640.93 12260020 349890.69 66268437 1867725.5 2800430 81707.72 91377746 2564964.83 122141.18 Aug-11 14585694 347176.6 13366537 333790.92 86141851 2209523.7 2791679 73258.02 116885761 2963749.16 141130.91 Sep-11 14796435 346826.29 13329926 326289.5 83122036 2085730 3057248 76418 114305645 2835263.82 135012.56 E-UpDates November 2011 14 Surge Research Support

Index MovementsBSE: BSE Sensitive Index, Sensex (30 Scrips) (1978-79=100) Open High Low Close Price/Earnings Price/Bookvalue Dividend Yield 3-Oct-11 16255.97 16255.97 16056.33 16151.45 17.77 3.25 1.57 4-Oct-11 16081.77 16202.38 15745.43 15864.86 17.45 3.19 1.60 5-Oct-11 15967.72 16044.91 15760.53 15792.41 17.39 3.18 1.60 7-Oct-11 16222.49 16347.48 16148.97 16232.54 17.80 3.26 1.56 10-Oct-11 16270.07 16595.93 16230.77 16557.23 18.18 3.33 1.53 11-Oct-11 16668.15 16774.12 16510.71 16536.47 18.17 3.33 1.53 12-Oct-11 16660.43 16987.06 16608.57 16958.39 18.52 3.39 1.50 13-Oct-11 17048.00 17084.07 16854.03 16883.92 18.39 3.37 1.51 14-Oct-11 16836.83 17112.45 16828.45 17082.69 18.59 3.41 1.50 17-Oct-11 17176.05 17188.55 16928.38 17025.09 18.40 3.39 1.50 18-Oct-11 16817.38 16824.76 16669.04 16748.29 17.91 3.33 1.53 19-Oct-11 16883.36 17106.99 16874.34 17085.34 18.28 3.40 1.50 20-Oct-11 16911.85 16962.06 16744.99 16936.89 18.11 3.38 1.51 21-Oct-11 16975.79 17032.32 16752.21 16785.64 17.97 3.35 1.52 24-Oct-11 17011.06 17104.88 16898.60 16939.28 18.13 3.39 1.50 25-Oct-11 17012.79 17322.13 16900.26 17254.86 18.43 3.44 1.48 26-Oct-11 17336.34 17350.49 17273.52 17288.83 18.48 3.45 1.48 28-Oct-11 17671.86 17908.13 17671.86 17804.80 18.96 3.55 1.44 31-Oct-11 17806.21 17813.11 17668.27 17705.01 18.82 3.52 1.45 540017650 5350 530017400 5250 520017150 515016900 5100 505016650 500016400 4950 490016150 BSE NSE 485015900 4800 475015650 4700 10-Oct-11 11-Oct-11 12-Oct-11 13-Oct-11 14-Oct-11 17-Oct-11 18-Oct-11 19-Oct-11 20-Oct-11 21-Oct-11 24-Oct-11 25-Oct-11 26-Oct-11 28-Oct-11 31-Oct-11 3-Oct-11 4-Oct-11 5-Oct-11 7-Oct-11 E-UpDates November 2011 15 Surge Research Support

NSE: S&P CNX Nifty (50 Scrips)(Nov.3, 1993=100) Open High Low Close Price/Earnings Price/Bookvalue Dividend Yield 3-Oct-11 4874.40 4879.15 4823.90 4849.50 17.51 2.86 1.56 4-Oct-11 4823.50 4869.75 4728.30 4772.15 17.23 2.82 1.59 5-Oct-11 4791.30 4827.80 4741.00 4751.30 17.16 2.81 1.60 7-Oct-11 4883.65 4922.60 4861.20 4888.05 17.65 2.89 1.55 10-Oct-11 4886.85 4991.15 4882.05 4979.60 18.03 2.99 1.51 11-Oct-11 5019.90 5045.10 4964.00 4974.35 18.01 2.98 1.52 12-Oct-11 5011.20 5109.80 4997.65 5099.40 18.43 3.06 1.48 13-Oct-11 5130.80 5136.95 5067.65 5077.85 18.35 3.04 1.49 14-Oct-11 5057.35 5141.40 5056.60 5132.30 18.55 3.08 1.47 17-Oct-11 5156.20 5160.20 5084.50 5118.25 18.50 3.07 1.47 18-Oct-11 5049.45 5057.50 5011.05 5037.50 18.00 3.02 1.50 19-Oct-11 5080.45 5148.05 5075.30 5139.15 18.36 3.08 1.47 20-Oct-11 5086.55 5099.00 5033.95 5091.90 18.14 3.05 1.48 21-Oct-11 5106.60 5120.75 5037.95 5049.95 17.99 3.03 1.49 24-Oct-11 5114.70 5145.65 5084.75 5098.35 18.10 3.06 1.48 25-Oct-11 5137.90 5211.00 5085.55 5191.60 18.39 3.11 1.45 26-Oct-11 5214.95 5219.25 5196.15 5201.80 18.43 3.12 1.45 28-Oct-11 5341.90 5399.70 5322.80 5360.70 19.03 3.21 1.41 31-Oct-11 5358.90 5360.25 5314.60 5326.60 18.90 3.19 1.42FUTIDX-NIFTY Futures(Expiry 24-Nov-11) Open High Low Close Settlement Price No. of contracts Change in OI 3-Oct-11 4869.9 4890.0 4827.7 4871.4 4871.4 8823.0 91700.0 4-Oct-11 4845.0 4897.7 4740.0 4788.5 4788.5 12639.0 1,27,000 5-Oct-11 4802.8 4856.0 4761.0 4782.1 4782.1 11128.0 95450.0 7-Oct-11 4890.3 4951.0 4886.0 4909.9 4909.9 12600.0 -6350.0 10-Oct-11 4914.0 5018.0 4902.5 5007.5 5007.5 12002.0 1,16,100 11-Oct-11 5050.6 5068.0 4985.1 4997.8 4997.8 12909.0 1,75,550 12-Oct-11 5015.6 5135.0 5015.6 5127.5 5127.5 16697.0 2,84,850 13-Oct-11 5150.0 5154.0 5082.1 5089.4 5089.4 16266.0 2,65,350 14-Oct-11 5081.0 5169.0 5077.5 5160.6 5160.6 17295.0 3,02,950 17-Oct-11 5184.0 5184.0 5100.0 5132.5 5132.5 21213.0 1,72,650 18-Oct-11 5075.0 5107.0 5030.1 5060.6 5060.6 48837.0 12,89,600 19-Oct-11 5084.9 5172.9 5084.9 5165.7 5165.7 82834.0 24,39,900 20-Oct-11 5110.2 5126.9 5051.0 5119.7 5119.7 1,03,748 18,81,200 21-Oct-11 5119.0 5149.8 5058.5 5074.1 5074.1 1,75,607 46,55,400 24-Oct-11 5135.6 5176.4 5115.2 5128.7 5128.7 2,01,013 43,56,300 25-Oct-11 5151.5 5249.8 5112.1 5229.2 5229.2 4,15,096 88,91,850 26-Oct-11 5241.2 5257.2 5227.0 5232.1 5232.1 82639.0 6,09,700 28-Oct-11 5376.6 5402.8 5341.3 5385.5 5385.5 3,61,703 10,00,950 31-Oct-11 5369.7 5377.9 5333.7 5347.1 5347.1 2,67,544 2,59,700 E-UpDates November 2011 16 Surge Research Support

Capital Market Flows Mutual Funds Investment Trends Gross Purchases Gross Sales Net Investment Equity (Rs Crores) (Rs Crores) (Rs Crores) 3-Oct-11 387.1 620.1 -233.0 4-Oct-11 558.8 654.0 -95.2 5-Oct-11 528.1 424.4 103.7 7-Oct-11 739.3 555.2 184.1 10-Oct-11 694.2 500.4 193.8 11-Oct-11 777.7 433.2 344.5 12-Oct-11 680.2 500.7 179.5 13-Oct-11 429.9 511.9 -82.0 14-Oct-11 465.9 483.6 -17.8 17-Oct-11 292.8 522.4 -229.6 18-Oct-11 451.0 526.1 -75.1 19-Oct-11 423.4 432.9 -9.4 20-Oct-11 302.6 489.5 -186.9 21-Oct-11 340.2 394.6 -54.4 24-Oct-11 323.0 412.9 -89.9 25-Oct-11 772.5 794.5 -22.0 26-Oct-11 39.2 4.2 35.0 28-Oct-11 688.3 845.3 -157.0 31-Oct-11 413.6 563.6 -150.0 Total for Month 9307.8 9669.5 -361.7 Gross Purchases Gross Sales Net Investment Debt (Rs Crores) (Rs Crores) (Rs Crores) 3-Oct-11 8440.6 3803.1 4637.5 4-Oct-11 5203.1 3350.7 1852.3 5-Oct-11 5556.4 4141.4 1415.0 7-Oct-11 4634.4 1981.7 2652.7 10-Oct-11 2771.1 927.1 1844.0 11-Oct-11 2063.1 2157.8 -94.8 12-Oct-11 2767.2 1672.2 1095.0 13-Oct-11 2479.8 1969.5 510.3 14-Oct-11 1607.9 1599.6 8.3 17-Oct-11 2093.5 1539.6 553.9 18-Oct-11 2345.1 2330.5 14.7 19-Oct-11 2274.7 3054.0 -779.3 20-Oct-11 2360.6 1467.6 893.0 21-Oct-11 2464.8 2158.0 306.8 24-Oct-11 1879.3 2813.3 -934.0 25-Oct-11 3792.6 2619.5 1173.1 26-Oct-11 0.0 53.5 -53.5 28-Oct-11 1714.1 1649.2 64.9 31-Oct-11 3563.4 3859.7 -296.3 Total for Month 58011.7 43148.0 14863.6E-UpDates November 2011 17 Surge Research Support

Mutual Funds Asset Position Mutual Funds Asset Position Private Sector Public Sector Mutual (of which) April-September 2011 Mutual Funds Funds UTI Total Mobilisation of Funds 2,865,442.8 607,350.4 287,785.8 3,472,793.2 Net Inflow/ Outflow (-ve) of funds 52,450.9 2,828.6 4,208.4 55,279.5 Cumulative Position of Net Assets as 529,998.7 111,938.3 55,732.2 641,937.0 on Sep, 30, 2011 (%) 82.56% 17.44% 8.68% 100.00% in Rs. Crore ECB Jul-11 Aug-11 Automatic Route 3,677,174,928 2,683,013,998 Approval Route 492,247,312 1,025,219,776 Total ECB (& FCCB) 4,169,422,241 3,708,233,774 Value in USD FII Investments in Primary & Secondary Markets Debt Gross Purchases Gross Sales Net Investment Net Investment (Rs Crores) (Rs Crores) (Rs Crores) US$ million 3-Oct-11 1466.1 723.9 742.2 151.7 4-Oct-11 562.1 1913.3 -1351.2 -273.4 5-Oct-11 1154.5 1504.5 -350.0 -71.1 7-Oct-11 1427.5 1565.4 -137.9 -28.0 10-Oct-11 888.0 638.2 249.9 50.9 11-Oct-11 1161.8 507.2 654.6 133.4 12-Oct-11 1646.5 379.0 1267.6 258.5 13-Oct-11 1184.3 963.5 220.7 44.8 14-Oct-11 1076.4 665.1 411.3 83.9 17-Oct-11 647.9 281.4 366.5 74.7 18-Oct-11 246.6 292.9 -46.3 -9.5 19-Oct-11 486.7 1153.1 -666.4 -135.6 20-Oct-11 1472.3 1212.7 259.6 52.8 21-Oct-11 1390.6 533.2 857.4 172.5 24-Oct-11 1137.4 602.9 534.5 106.8 25-Oct-11 719.4 1854.3 -1134.8 -227.5 28-Oct-11 476.8 657.2 -180.4 -36.3 31-Oct-11 359.5 655.4 -295.9 -60.6 Total for Month 17504.4 16103.2 1401.4 287.8 Total for 2011 218231.0 198873.4 19357.7 4290.3E-UpDates November 2011 18 Surge Research Support

Equity Gross Purchases Gross Sales Net Investment Net Investment (Rs Crores) (Rs Crores) (Rs Crores) US$ million 3-Oct-11 6193.8 6504.1 -310.3 -63.4 4-Oct-11 1639.8 2422.2 -782.4 -158.3 5-Oct-11 2080.2 3046.4 -966.1 -196.3 7-Oct-11 2026.8 2996.1 -969.3 -197.0 10-Oct-11 3563.9 3072.7 491.3 100.0 11-Oct-11 2471.0 2189.8 281.2 57.3 12-Oct-11 2833.1 2650.0 183.1 37.3 13-Oct-11 2674.9 2025.8 649.2 131.8 14-Oct-11 2539.1 1873.3 665.8 135.8 17-Oct-11 1547.0 1630.3 -83.3 -17.0 18-Oct-11 1889.9 1492.4 397.5 81.3 19-Oct-11 1808.3 2057.5 -249.2 -50.7 20-Oct-11 1776.2 1758.8 17.3 3.5 21-Oct-11 1469.3 1900.2 -430.9 -86.7 24-Oct-11 1376.3 1554.5 -178.2 -35.6 25-Oct-11 1760.1 1613.4 146.8 29.4 28-Oct-11 3688.8 3234.4 454.5 91.5 31-Oct-11 5567.7 3207.3 2360.4 483.5 Total for Month 46906.2 45229.2 1677.4 346.5 Total for 2011 527367.3 525981.6 1385.7 397.8 No of Registered FIIs :1750 as on 31.10.2011. 2360.4 800.0 500.0 Net Flows (Rs.Cr.) 200.0 -100.0 -400.0 -700.0 FII Equity MF Equity -1000.0 3-Oct- 10-Oct- 17-Oct- 24-Oct- 31-Oct- 11 11 11 11 11 Aug-11 Apr.- Aug. 2011-12 Apr.- Aug. 2010-11 Foreign Investment Direct Investment 2,830 20,973 11,390 Portfolio Investment -1,797 2,493 13,327 Total 1,033 23,466 24,717 in USD MillionE-UpDates November 2011 19 Surge Research Support

Commodity Futures & Spot Markets Value of Trade on Commodity Exchanges (in Rs.Crore) During MCX NCDEX All Exchanges YoY % Growth 1st - 15th Oct ’11 567,972.64 63,564.37 657,000.22 32.01 16th - 30th Sep ’11 908,638.47 81,178.13 1,021,739.02 122.69 1st - 15th Sep ’11 859,577.39 67,063.65 953,370.10 118.26Commodity Futures & Spot Prices Sugar* Wheat** Refined Soya Oil** Energy: Crude Oil* Bullion: Silver* (100 Kgs) (100 Kgs) (10 Kgs) (1 Bbl.) (1 Kg.) Date Futures Spot Futures Spot Futures Spot Futures Spot Futures Spot1-Oct-11 2728.0 1128.0 1164.9 587.4 633.1 3963.0 3875.0 51181.0 51100.03-Oct-11 2746.0 2694.0 1131.4 1154.6 591.4 630.0 3869.0 3875.0 52044.0 52000.04-Oct-11 2729.0 2692.0 1123.8 1150.4 581.5 629.7 3825.0 3836.0 50223.0 51338.05-Oct-11 2720.0 2692.0 1116.6 1145.7 578.0 628.1 3943.0 3725.0 51226.0 49046.06-Oct-11 2720.0 1116.6 578.0 4065.0 3920.0 53237.0 52993.07-Oct-11 2738.0 2690.0 1119.6 1150.0 581.4 627.6 4062.0 4063.0 51901.0 51958.08-Oct-11 2746.0 2688.0 1124.4 1146.7 579.7 625.9 4095.0 4077.0 52297.0 53049.010-Oct-11 2747.0 2700.0 1124.4 1143.8 588.3 623.4 4211.0 4077.0 53028.0 52543.011-Oct-11 2758.0 2721.0 1123.4 1154.6 589.4 621.2 4264.0 4191.0 53269.0 53545.012-Oct-11 2779.0 2723.0 1130.4 1153.0 599.9 624.8 4230.0 4208.0 54162.0 52701.013-Oct-11 2785.0 2743.0 1128.4 1150.9 594.7 623.4 4204.0 4214.0 52914.0 52458.014-Oct-11 2760.0 2754.0 1122.0 1152.8 604.9 627.5 4281.0 4129.0 53292.0 53371.015-Oct-11 2770.0 1117.2 1152.5 608.9 632.8 4299.0 4259.0 53405.0 52873.017-Oct-11 2804.0 2757.0 1109.4 1155.0 609.2 639.5 4279.0 4259.0 52769.0 51764.018-Oct-11 2779.0 2754.0 1106.4 1152.5 606.2 638.4 4363.0 4223.0 53157.0 52497.019-Oct-11 2774.0 2754.0 1093.6 1152.5 613.6 640.5 4357.0 4341.0 52228.0 51504.020-Oct-11 2775.0 2756.0 1088.8 1149.6 609.7 637.9 4291.0 4235.0 51701.0 51939.021-Oct-11 2787.0 1091.2 1143.4 614.5 638.2 4371.0 4279.0 52784.0 52518.022-Oct-11 2777.0 2775.0 1094.6 1143.2 614.0 637.5 4381.0 4376.0 53034.0 52809.024-Oct-11 2766.0 2779.0 1091.8 1141.3 615.8 638.3 4546.0 4376.0 53077.0 53018.025-Oct-11 2807.0 2785.0 1113.4 1143.6 627.8 640.7 4647.0 4552.0 55064.0 53030.026-Oct-11 2785.0 1112.4 625.5 4574.0 4627.0 55711.027-Oct-11 2788.0 2785.0 1109.2 630.1 4595.0 4479.0 57859.0 53030.028-Oct-11 2781.0 2786.0 1082.4 1157.5 621.9 4535.0 4666.0 57395.0 53030.029-Oct-11 2770.0 1092.8 1163.8 623.8 640.6 4541.0 4556.0 57373.0 53030.031-Oct-11 2782.0 2759.0 1092.6 1181.3 618.2 634.9 4516.0 4556.0 56427.0 56003.0*Multi Commodity Exchange of India. ** National Commodity & Derivatives Exchng Ltd. Futures: Nov contract; Silver Dec contract. E-UpDates November 2011 20 Surge Research Support

Commodity Futures & Spot Indices Futures Index : MCXCOMDEX MCXAGRI MCXMETAL Spot Index : MCXSCOMDEX MCXSAGRI MCXSMETAL 1-Oct 3360.29 2944.47 4445.76 3367.16 3149.98 4443.47 3-Oct 3356.76 2944.36 4499.31 3332.45 3087.26 4449.78 4-Oct 3303.37 2929.12 4396.04 3310.44 3107.53 4453.39 5-Oct 3347.53 2900.63 4452.38 3282.8 3076.33 4336.15 6-Oct 3409.81 2898.37 4541.06 3282.8 3076.33 4336.15 7-Oct 3390.29 2901.23 4496.28 3405.03 3047.24 4496.70 8-Oct 3400.96 2873.93 4517.07 3405.03 3047.24 4496.70 10-Oct 3457.37 2888.37 4583.83 3430.34 3092.70 4517.46 11-Oct 3462.31 2886.18 4563.36 3437.47 3099.98 4531.99 12-Oct 3470.21 2856.39 4624.99 3478.69 3128.39 4561.27 13-Oct 3449.70 2895.40 4567.24 3443.81 3120.19 4543.51 14-Oct 3486.42 2890.75 4606.54 3457.5 3112.72 4524.37 15-Oct 3495.18 2894.91 4615.50 3457.5 3112.72 4524.37 17-Oct 3472.52 2892.24 4573.40 3487.33 3147.63 4560.93 18-Oct 3482.94 2868.16 4568.58 3459.15 3135.37 4494.26 19-Oct 3451.54 2867.23 4487.61 3452.41 2975.68 4499.74 20-Oct 3415.79 2890.98 4418.89 3431.86 3143.82 4421.91 21-Oct 3478.73 2896.12 4530.77 3469.09 3175.84 4423.01 22-Oct 3490.41 2887.11 4554.50 3469.09 3175.84 4423.01 24-Oct 3556.22 2875.03 4630.82 3517.35 3163.84 4539.12 25-Oct 3606.66 2894.77 4683.81 3605.28 3197.59 4600.98 26-Oct 3612.90 2909.23 4750.38 3605.28 3197.59 4600.98 27-Oct 3667.13 2933.73 4852.05 3612.4 3190.69 4614.70 28-Oct 3642.37 2927.95 4817.23 3603.45 3216.10 4650.65 29-Oct 3653.86 2986.02 4817.13 3603.45 3216.10 4650.65 31-Oct 3632.17 2995.59 4768.86 3631.53 3231.11 4726.23Multi Commodity Exchange of India: Index Close 4950 4750 4550 4350 4150 MCXSCOMDEX MCXSAGRI MCXSMETAL 3950 MCXCOMDEX MCXAGRI MCXMETAL 3750 3550 3350 3150 2950 2750 1-Oct 3-Oct 5-Oct 7-Oct 9-Oct 11-Oct 13-Oct 15-Oct 17-Oct 19-Oct 21-Oct 23-Oct 25-Oct 27-Oct 29-Oct 31-Oct E-UpDates November 2011 21 Surge Research Support

Global Economic IndicatorsEconomic & Financial Market Indicators for India’s Major Trading Partners Growth Inflation Interest rates External Sector Stock Country Market Risk Indicator/ Sovereign Short-term Long- term Exchange Share Price Rating** Country GDP IIP PPI CPI rate Rate Rate Trade Balance FX Reserves Growth* (% change on year ago) (% change on year ago) (%) (per US$) $ bn.USA Q3/ 1.6 M09/ 3.2 M09/ 6.9 M09/ 3.9 0.10 2.00 M08/ -711.1 -1.6 AA+/ -veChina Q3/ 9.1 M09/ 13.8 M09/ 6.1 5.70 3.79 6.36 M09/ 172.9 3201.7 -7.5 AA-/StableHong Kong 5.1 Q2/ 2.0 M09/ 5.8 0.29 1.29 7.77 M09/ -51.3 277.7 -14.3 AAA/StableSingapore 5.9 M09 / 12.8 M09/ 5.5 0.43 1.59 1.27 M09/ 46.2 233.6 -10.5 AAA/StableNetherlands 1.6 M08/ 1.5 M08/ 8.9 M09/ 2.7 1.58 2.25 0.72 M08/ 59.7 -13.5 AAA/StableUK Q3/ 0.5 M08/ -1.0 M09/ 6.3 M09/ 5.2 1.00 2.27 0.63 M08/-158.3 -5.2 AAA/StableGermany 2.8 M08/ 7.9 M09/ 5.7 M10/ 2.9 1.58 1.82 0.72 M08/ 197.8 -11.2 AAA/StableBelgium 2.3 M07/ 4.0 M08/ 8.0 M10/ 3.6 1.58 4.36 0.72 M08/ 13.1 -17.4 AA+/ -veIndonesia 6.5 M08/ 3.9 M10/ 4.4 9.55 3.99 8940.00 M08/ 31.1 110.7 2.4 BB+/+veJapan -1.1 M09/ -4.0 M09/ 2.6 M09/ 0.0 0.15 0.99 78.0 M08/ 20.6 -12.2 AA-/ -veFrance 1.7 M08/ 4.4 M08/ 6.3 M09/ 2.2 1.58 3.07 0.72 M08/ -93.1 -15.9 AAA/StableItaly 0.8 M08/ 4.7 M08/ 4.5 M10/ 3.4 1.58 6.39 0.72 M08/ -49.3 -22.1 A/ -veSouth Korea Q3/ 3.4 M09/ 6.8 M10/ 3.9 3.57 3.81 1122.00 M10/ 33.2 303.2 -6.4 A/StableSouth Africa 3.0 M08/ 5.6 M09/ 5.7 5.58 7.86 7.97 M09/ 0.4 43.2 -16.8 BBB+/StableBrazil 3.1 M08/ 1.8 M09/ 7.3 11.40 11.47 1.75 M10/ 31.1 348.0 -21.3 BBB-/ +veMalaysia 4.0 M08/ 3.0 M09/ 3.4 3.25 2.80 3.13 M08/ 36.7 129.1 -4.7 A-/StableThailand 2.6 M08/ 7.0 M10/ 4.2 3.55 3.40 30.8 M09/ 12.5 172.1 -8.5 BBB+/StableTurkey 8.8 M08/ 3.8 M10/ 7.7 10.60 9.60 1.77 M08/ -100.9 87.5 -26.7 BB/ +veSpain 0.7 M08/ 0.6 M08/ 7.1 M10/ 3.0 1.58 5.45 0.72 M08/ -62.7 -11.6 AA-/-veTaiwan Q3/ 3.4 M09/ 1.6 M09/ 1.4 1.15 1.38 30.1 M09/ 8.0 389.2 -18.0 AA-/StablePakistan FY2011/2. M08/ 6.8 M09/ 10.5 11.6 13.00 86.1 M09/ -16.5 15.7 -2.9 B-/Stable 4 1.6 M08/ 5.3 M08/ 5.9 M10/ 3.0 1.58 1.78 0.72 M08/ -33.0 -14.5Euro areaIndia 7.7 M08/ 4.1 M09/ 10.1 8.65 8.97 49.2 M08/ -108.8 280.2 -22.6 BBB-/StableNote: Countries have been chosen according to their ranking by share of Indias exports in 2010-11. A few countries have been omitted due to insufficient data.GDP is for Q2 of 2011 unless otherwise mentioned.Trade balance for last 12 months. FX Reserves at end-Sep 2011. Interest & Exchange rates as on 2nd November 2011.*% change of the major index in US$ terms, over 31st Dec 2010, as of 2nd November 2011. **Foreign Currency Ratings by S&P as of 21st Oct 2011.For more Countrywise Indicators and Updates visit: http://www.ecofin-surge.co.in/global%20statistics.html World Output, Inflation & Trade (% change, IMF, WEO Database & Updates) 6.0 15.0 GDP Inflation Trade 5.0 10.0 4.0 5.0 3.0 Trade 0.0 2.0 -5.0 1.0 0.0 -10.0 -1.0 -15.0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 E-UpDates November 2011 22 Surge Research Support

Global Stock Indices Selected Indian & International Stock Indices BSE Dollex- S&P FTSE NIKKEI HSI STI IPC BOVESPA 30 (India) DJI (US) 500(US) 100(UK) 225 (Japan) (HongKong) (Singapore) (Mexico) (Brazil) 3-Oct-11 2,692.71 10,655.30 1,099.23 5,075.50 8,545.48 16,822.15 2,621.40 33,133.88 50,792.00 4-Oct-11 2,641.19 10,808.71 1,123.95 4,944.40 8,456.12 16,250.27 2,531.02 32,966.23 50,686.00 5-Oct-11 2,620.36 10,939.95 1,144.03 5,102.20 8,382.98 2,528.71 33,000.29 51,014.00 6-Oct-11 11,123.33 1,164.97 5,291.30 8,522.02 17,172.28 2,603.12 33,279.72 52,290.00 7-Oct-11 2,709.54 11,103.12 1,155.46 5,303.40 8,605.62 17,707.01 2,640.30 33,005.09 51,244.00 10-Oct-11 2,775.88 11,433.18 1,194.89 5,399.00 17,711.06 2,668.30 33,547.24 53,273.00 11-Oct-11 2,756.07 11,416.30 1,195.54 5,395.70 8,773.68 18,141.59 2,693.05 33,681.80 53,838.00 12-Oct-11 2,839.07 11,518.85 1,207.25 5,441.80 8,738.90 18,329.46 2,737.75 34,470.36 13-Oct-11 2,818.27 11,478.13 1,203.66 5,403.40 8,823.25 18,757.81 2,733.97 34,584.75 54,601.00 14-Oct-11 2,858.13 11,644.49 1,224.58 5,466.40 8,747.96 18,501.79 2,744.17 34,848.42 55,030.00 17-Oct-11 2,864.70 11,397.00 1,200.86 5,436.70 8,879.60 18,873.99 2,778.97 34,125.70 53,911.00 18-Oct-11 2,788.40 11,577.05 1,225.38 5,410.40 8,741.91 18,076.46 2,724.69 35,011.71 55,032.00 19-Oct-11 2,854.51 11,504.62 1,209.88 5,450.50 8,772.54 18,309.22 2,720.21 34,523.27 54,966.00 20-Oct-11 2,805.44 11,541.78 1,215.39 5,384.70 8,682.15 17,983.10 2,694.01 34,395.50 54,010.00 21-Oct-11 2,755.10 11,808.79 1,238.25 5,488.60 8,678.89 18,025.72 2,712.41 35,020.74 55,255.00 24-Oct-11 2,786.44 11,913.62 1,254.19 5,548.10 8,843.98 18,771.82 2,760.95 35,265.56 56,892.00 25-Oct-11 2,853.79 11,706.62 1,229.05 5,525.50 8,762.31 18,968.20 2,769.94 35,290.15 56,286.00 26-Oct-11 2,866.34 11,869.04 1,242.00 5,553.20 8,748.47 19,066.54 2,769.94 35,818.58 57,144.00 27-Oct-11 12,208.55 1,284.59 5,713.80 8,926.54 19,688.70 2,847.57 36,727.21 59,270.00 28-Oct-11 2,996.05 12,231.11 1,285.09 5,702.20 9,050.47 20,019.24 2,905.72 36,708.64 59,513.00 31-Oct-11 2,983.54 11,955.01 1,253.30 5,544.20 8,988.39 19,864.87 2,855.77 36,159.99 58,338.00Closing Values International Stock Index Movements vs BSE Sensex ( Oct-2011, with 3rd Oct=100) DJI (US) S&P 500 (US) FTSE 100(UK) NIKKEI 225 (Japan) HSI (HongKong) STI (Singapore) IPC (Mexico) BOVESPA (Brazil) E-UpDates November 2011 23 Surge Research Support

Global Commodity Prices Primary Commodity Indices*/ PricesUnits Descriptor Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11Index Number Fuel and Non-Fuel 148.36 150.19 159.38 190.31 188.61 182.89Index Number Non-Fuel 160.34 164.26 173.13 191.51 185.58 171.89Index Number Food 151.36 156.14 163.18 181.74 175.30 165.48Index Number Agricultural Raw Materials 122.78 125.67 133.23 151.30 150.20 141.42Index Number Industrial Inputs 166.47 170.12 181.45 198.64 193.11 175.95Index Number Metals 198.02 202.24 216.28 232.83 224.10 200.90Index Number Energy 141.35 141.96 151.34 189.60 190.38 189.32Index Number Crude Oil 142.57 143.08 153.57 189.50 190.27 188.44US Dollars per Barrel Crude Oil, Brent 76.69 77.79 82.92 110.08 110.88 109.47 " Crude Oil Dubai Fateh 74.35 75.29 80.34 104.96 106.00 103.88 " Crude Oil WTI 76.60 75.26 81.90 86.33 85.62 86.41USD per 000 Cubic Meters Natural Gas, H H, Louisiana 155.32 140.21 123.62 146.13 140.04 128.30US Dollars per Metric Ton Coal, Australian thermal 96.19 101.66 104.41 127.79 131.30 127.49US Dollars per Metric Ton Aluminum 2110.44 2171.24 2342.18 2380.99 2293.46 2180.65 " Copper 7302.67 7729.59 8289.76 8998.00 8300.14 7394.19 " Zinc 2047.48 2150.94 2373.56 2199.26 2075.22 1871.42US Cents per Metric Ton Iron Ore 145.34 140.63 148.48 177.45 177.23 150.43US cents per Pound Rubber 150.42 160.24 178.02 212.11 206.45 184.21US cents per Pound Cotton 90.35 104.73 126.55 114.10 116.65 110.61US Dollars per Metric Ton Palm oil 865.23 884.89 935.22 1047.51 995.18 914.44US Dollars per Metric Ton Sunflower Oil 1140.05 1195.18 1304.14 1666.04 1672.77 1565.19US Dollars per Metric Ton Soybean Oil 895.28 929.65 1034.85 1225.21 1218.86 1126.77US Dollars per Metric Ton Soybeans 379.46 390.23 427.18 501.43 490.91 446.02US cents per Pound Sugar, European 26.04 25.90 26.37 27.23 26.25 26.21 " Sugar, Free Market 18.60 22.67 26.94 28.88 26.64 26.30 " Sugar, U.S. 31.00 35.22 34.74 39.61 39.28 38.19US cents per Kg. Tea 315.09 337.18 339.86 358.17 362.27 357.14US cents per Pound Coffee, Arabicas 212.80 222.10 215.84 273.55 275.58 248.49US Dollars per Metric Ton Rice, Bangkok 486.86 519.95 533.13 577.30 615.55 602.00US Dollars per Metric Ton Wheat, Mexico 246.25 271.69 270.23 327.09 315.92 289.01*New series with Base 2005=100 Observed & Projected Price Movements, IMF WEO Database Fuel and Non-Fuel Price Indices 2012 Industrial Inputs Price Index includes Agricultural Raw Materials and Metals 2011 Agricultural Raw Materials Index 2010 includes Timber, Cotton, Wool, Rubber, and Hides Price Cereals Price Index Wheat, Corn, Rice 2009 & Barley Crude Oil Index(Petroleum), Brent, 2008 West Texas Intermediate, and the Dubai Fateh Metals Price Index, Copper, 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 Aluminum, Iron Ore, Tin, Nickel, Zinc, Lead, and Uranium Price IndicesE-UpDates November 2011 24 Surge Research Support

RBI Adjusts Stance to Reflect Deepening of the Global crisisThe RBI formulated its second quarter review of the Annual Monetary Policy for the year 2011-12 against a backdrop ofdecelerating domestic demand and growth, led by global economic sentiments. A slew of regulatory and developmental policymeasures have been announced; these include new products to widen and deepen the financial markets and measures toincrease financial inclusion and strengthen the banking system. The most important measure however, was the deregulation ofthe Savings Bank Deposit Interest Rate, which so far remained the so called last bastion of interest rate regulation in India.Though this could lead to both intra- and inter-bank deposit migration in the short-term, it is expected that the move will leadto efficiency in banks’ credit-deposit management and would benefit a large number of small savers in the country. Asinflation expectations are likely to be controlled due to previous policy measures as well as the slowdown in both global anddomestic growth and demand, RBI has now shifted its stance from hawkish to neutral. This has provided significant breathingspace for domestic financial markets and corporates. Going forward, the developments—related to the sovereign debt crisesacross the globe, in the global financial markets and the actual trajectory of both global and domestic commodity prices—would determine necessary changes in the policy stance.The highlights of the Second Quarter Review of Monetary Policy 2011-12 is presented here:Global Economic ConditionsGlobal growth prospects for appear to be declining; there have been significant downward revisions in growth projections.Business and consumer confidence have dampened on the back of euro area sovereign debt crisis. Private sector balance sheetsare at risk and significant weakness in the banking sector has re-emerged. In its World Economic Outlook of September 2011,the IMF has also significantly lowered its global growth forecast by 0.3 percentage points for 2011 and 0.5 percentage pointsfor 2012.Global commodity prices have softened but have stayed elevated. The current Brent crude oil price is still over 25 per centhigher than its average for 2010-11. The IMF has revised upwards its consumer price inflation forecast for emerging anddeveloping economies. According to the IMF (WEO, September 2011), consumer price inflation is likely to increase from 1.6per cent in 2010 to 2.6 per cent in 2011 in advanced economies, and from 6.1 per cent to 7.5 per cent in emerging anddeveloping economies.Indian Economy—Trends and OutlookGrowth — Growth in 2011-12 is likely to moderate to below trend. Agriculture prospects remain encouraging; however,moderation is visible in industrial activity and some services. A major downside risk to growth emanates from the globalmacroeconomic environment. A comparative study of business expectations surveys, conducted by different agencies,indicates stiff moderation in business climate. Both global and domestic factors seem to have weakened the perception aboutthe performance of the economy. The CII and FICCI business confidence indices have shown significant decline over theprevious quarter and year too. The 55th round of the Industrial Outlook Survey of the RBI, showed further decline in BusinessExpectation Index: The demand conditions of the Indian manufacturing sector continued to moderate as net responses onproduction, order books and exports declined. The baseline projection of GDP growth for 2011-12 is revised downwards to 7.6per centInflation—Inflationary pressures are strong and persistent due to structural rigidities, continuing strong demand and theadaptive nature of inflation expectations. Domestic price pressures still remain significant and broad-based. Food inflation islikely to stay elevated due to demand-supply mismatches in non-cereals and large MSP revisions. An increase in administeredpetroleum prices and electricity prices could lead to further rise in inflation. The latest round of Inflation Expectation Surveyof Households exhibits marginal increase in both perceived and expected inflation till the next quarter. The baseline projectionfor WPI inflation for March 2012 is kept unchanged at 7 per cent. Elevated inflationary pressures are expected to ease fromDecember 2011, though uncertainties about sudden adverse developments remain.Aggregate demand — Investment demand is softening as a result of combination of factors including monetary tightening,hindrances to project execution, deteriorating business confidence and slowing global economy. Planned corporate fixedinvestment in new projects declined significantly since the second half of 2010-11 consequently, the pipeline of investment islikely to shrink, putting growth in 2012-13 at risk. Private consumption is also starting to soften in parts, but it remains robustoverall as is evident from corporate sales performance. Sales growth continues to be healthy, but profits are under pressure;based on an analysis of a sample of 2,426 non-financial companies, margins of corporates in Q1 of 2011-12 moderated acrosssectors compared with their levels in Q4 of 2010-11, while a classification of companies into the use-based segments of the IIPindicated that the intermediate goods segment registered the maximum decline in margins, reflecting the impact of commodityprices.. The additional Government borrowing program can potentially crowd out more productive private sector investment. Ifthe fiscal deficit is higher than the budgeted level it will have additional implications for both growth and inflation.E-UpDates November 2011 25 Surge Research Support

External Sector —The Current Account Deficit (CAD) widened in Q1 of 2011-12, despite a surge in exports and higher netinvisibles receipts. Going forward, exports could decelerate as global growth slows down. Invisible earnings may alsodecelerate as slow down in US and euro area could impact software exports. Sharp decline in FII flows in Q2 of 2011-12 hasbeen largely offset by strong FDI flows. However, capital flows are entering an uncertain phase with increased financial stressand worsening global growth prospects. External sector outlook, although stable, warrants close monitoring.Liquidity & Credit —During Q2 of 2011-12, liquidity conditions, though in deficit mode in line with the policy objective,remained comfortable. Bank credit growth is presently above the indicative trajectory. This has been supplemented byincreased resource flows from non-banking sources. Going forward, credit growth is expected to moderate as growth slows.Money supply (M3) growth projection for 2011-12 has been retained at 15.5 per cent and growth of non-food credit at 18 percent.Financial Markets—Volatility spillovers impacted domestic currency and equity markets; rupee depreciation and the fall inequity indices in Q2 of 2011-12 were comparable to the patterns in most other emerging markets. Money market ratesremained in line with policy signals, while G-sec yields hardened after the announcement of additional market borrowing.During April-July 2011, the Indian rupee exhibited two-way movement, however, since August, the rupee depreciated againstall four major international currencies, reflecting prevailing global market sentiment led FII-sell-offs. Between March andSeptember 2011, the nominal depreciation of rupee against the US dollar was at 8.7 per cent and the rupee depreciated afurther 2.3 per cent between end-September and October 21, 2011. According to the assessment of the June 2011 FinancialStability Report, The banking sector was resilient, though going forward stress tests pointed to the strains in profitability andasset quality. Under severe stress tests, banks might also face liquidity constraints.Monetary PolicyMonetary policy has been tightened considerably with an effective 500 bps rate hike cumulatively and a 100 bps increase inCRR in a span of 20 months since February 2010. The effective tightening has been of 500 basis points as liquidity in thesystem transited from surplus to deficit. This monetary policy response has been calibrated on the basis of India specificgrowth-inflation dynamics in the broader context of persistent global uncertainty. Monetary transmission has helped raisedeposit and lending rates, correct the mismatch between deposit and credit growth and dampen aggregate demand.Monetary Measures The repo rate under the liquidity adjustment facility (LAF) has been increased by 25 basis points, from 8.25 per cent to 8.5 per cent with immediate effect. As per the new operating procedure, the reverse repo rate under the LAF, determined with a 100 basis point spread below the repo rate, automatically adjusts to 7.5 per cent. The Marginal Standing Facility (MSF) rate, determined with a spread of 100 basis points above the repo rate, gets recalibrated t0 9.5 per cent. The Bank Rate remains at 6.0 per cent. The cash reserve ratio (CRR) remains unchanged at 6 per cent of NDTL of scheduled banks.Guidance—The expected inflation outcomes provide some room for monetary policy to address growth risks in the short run;notwithstanding current rates of inflation persisting till November (December release), the likelihood of a rate action in theDecember mid-quarter review is relatively low. If the inflation trajectory conforms to projections, further rate hikes may not bewarranted.Developmental and Regulatory PolicesSavings Bank Deposit Interest RateRBI has decided to deregulate the savings bank deposit interest rate with immediate effect; banks are free to determine theirsavings bank deposit interest rate, subject to the following two conditions:First, each bank will have to offer a uniform interest rate on savings bank deposits up to Rs.1 lakh, irrespective of the amountin the account within this limit.E-UpDates November 2011 26 Surge Research Support

Second, for savings bank deposits over Rs.1 lakh, a bank may provide differential rates of interest, if it so chooses. However,there should not be any discrimination from customer to customer on interest rates for similar amount of deposit.Several up coming developmental and regulatory policy changes have been announced; these include:Financial Market Products— to issue the final guidelines on the cash settled 5-year and 2-year IRFs, including the finalsettlement price by end-December 2011. to make the guidelines on CDS effective by end-November 2011. to issueguidelines on short sale in government securities by end-December 2011.Credit Delivery and Financial Inclusion— To provide enhanced banking services in Tier 2 centres, it is proposedto permit domestic scheduled commercial banks (other than RRBs) to open branches in Tier 2 centres (with population 50,000to 99,999 as per Census 2001) without the need to take permission from the Reserve Bank in each case, subject to reporting.As there is a need to increase the maximum permissible limit of individual housing loans that can be granted by the UCBs, asalso to increase the maximum repayment period for such loans, it is proposed: to increase the individual housing loan limitfrom Rs. 25 lakh to Rs. 30 lakh for Tier I UCBs and from Rs. 50 lakh to Rs. 70 lakh for Tier II UCBs, subject to extantprudential exposure limits; and to enhance the maximum repayment period of housing loans from the present period of 15years to 20 years. It was announced in the Annual Monetary Policy Statement that the RBI would adhere to internationallyagreed phase-in period (beginning January 1, 2013) for implementation of the Basel III framework; it is proposed to issue thedraft guidelines for implementing the Basel III framework by end-December 2011.Non-Banking Financial Companies— It is proposed to introduce a new category of NBFCs called Non-Banking FinancialCompany – Micro Finance Institutions (NBFC-MFIs), the regulatory framework of which will be broadly based on therecommendations of the Malegam Committee. Detailed guidelines in this regard will be issued by end-November 2011.The full report is available at: http://www.rbi.org.in/scripts/Annualpolicy.aspx Summary by Surge Research Support October 2011E-UpDates November 2011 27 Surge Research Support

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E-UpDates-November11—Global and Indian Economic Indicators

by Ecofin Surge on Nov 10, 2011

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E-UpDates-November11—Global and Indian Economic Indicators — Document Transcript