The Economics of Climate Change in South East Asia


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Uploaded with the permission of the British High Commission, Singapore..this presentation talks about the Economic Effects of Climate Change in SE Asia based on the ADB Report

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  • Stern Review – 2006 Cost 1-2% of Global GDP to act now – 5-20% if wait But analysis global in nature – regional analysis needed
  • Temperature increased by 0.1 – 0.3 ºC per decade Precipitation decreased in many parts Sea level is rising 1 to 8 mm per decade Extreme events increasing (intensity & frequency) Almost all sectors are severely affected: Often worth millions or billions $ Large number of loss in life
  • Temperature increase will continue By 2050: 1.30 – 2.32 ºC (IPCC, 2007) By 2100: 2.4 – 5.0 ºC (this Study) Sea level to rise by 70 cm by 2100
  • Large proportion of population and economic activity on long, low lying coastlines Heavily reliant on agriculture for livelihoods High dependence on natural resources and forestry Level of extreme poverty remains high.
  • Rice yield potential likely to decrease by up to 50% by 2100, threatening food security Large part of dominant forest could be replaced by tropical savannah and shrub with low carbon sequestration potential Increased water stress and adverse impact on human health .
  • Essential to enhance adaptive capacity R&D/technology: Drought and saline resistant crops, Efficient irrigation techniques, Water conservation technologies, Improved farming systems/practices Infrastructure: Climate-proofed, Strengthen risk and vulnerability assessment W eather data collection and forecasts, Early warning systems, Knowledge development and dissemination .
  • Total GHG emissions - 12% of the world in 2000 But projected to grow greatly in next 30 years - due to high economic and population growth So need to tackle now, to avoid being high emitter in future
  • Up to 40% of energy-related CO2 emissions per year could be reduced at negative cost by 2020. Another 40% could be mitigated at a total cost below 1% of GDP. Positive-cost options include fuel switching from coal to gas and renewable energy
  • Steps to help mitigation and adaptation Mangroves – absorb CO2, protect coastlines Reservoirs – generate energy from HEP, can protect against flooding
  • Green Stimulus: Southeast Asian countries can address climate change and stimulate growth by investing in the low carbon economy. Can simultaneously strengthen economies, create jobs, reduce poverty, lower emissions and help prepare for the worst effects of climate change.
  • The Economics of Climate Change in South East Asia

    1. 1. Climate Change in SE Asia: Costs of Action vs Inaction John Pearson British High Commission Singapore April 2010
    2. 2. Stern Review <ul><li>Cost of Action: </li></ul><ul><li>1-2% of Global GDP to act now – but more (5-20%) if we delay </li></ul><ul><li>Cost of Inaction: </li></ul><ul><li>Up to 20% of GDP </li></ul>
    3. 3. Climate Change Is Happening
    4. 4. Climate Change Is Happening <ul><li>CO2 already the highest in Homo Sapien’s existence </li></ul>Bronze Age Begins (5500) Homo Sapiens Appear (200,000) Agriculture Begins (10,000) Earliest Evidence of Cooking (400,000)
    5. 5. Climate Change Will Continue 2050: +1.3 - 2.3 º C 2100: +2.4 - 5.0ºC +70cm sea level by 2100
    6. 6. S E Asia is very vulnerable People and economy near the sea in low lying areas (Jakarta, Manila...) Dependent on agriculture and natural resources High level of poverty
    7. 7. Typhoon Ondoy
    8. 9. Likely Impacts <ul><li>Rice yield could decrease by 50% by 2100, threatening food security </li></ul><ul><li>Forest could be replaced by savannah and shrub with low carbon sequestration potential </li></ul><ul><li>Increased water stress and impacts on human health . </li></ul>
    9. 10. SE Asia could lose 6.7% of GDP by 2100, if non-market impacts and catastrophic risks are also taken into account .
    10. 11. Adaptation <ul><ul><li>Drought and saline resistant crops Efficient irrigation techniques </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Climate proof infrastructure </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Early warning systems </li></ul></ul>
    11. 12. Adaptation Makes Economic Sense <ul><li>By 2100 Benefit:1.9% of GDP Cost: 0.2% of GDP </li></ul>
    12. 13. Mitigation <ul><li>12% of world emissions (2000) Will grow greatly in next 30 years So need to tackle now </li></ul>
    13. 14. Reduce Emissions Cheaply 40% of energy-related CO2 emissions cut at “no cost” by 2020 Another 40% cut at below 1% of GDP
    14. 15. Win Win Options Mangroves Hydro Power Reservoirs
    15. 16. The Low Carbon Economy
    16. 17. Economics-Climate-Change-SEA/default.asp
    17. 19. World Average – 3.8 tCO2/capita