David Molden International Water Management Institute Building Resilience Through Better  Agricultural Water Management
Presentation <ul><li>Drivers of Water Use  </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Agriculture, Population & Diets, urbanization, energy, po...
One liter of water produces  one calorie on average Food Supply in Calories One liter of water produces one calorie on ave...
Will there be enough water?  <ul><li>A question posed to 700 researchers and practitioners who put together the Comprehens...
Investing in Irrigation Irrigated Area Food price index World Bank lending for irrigation 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0 1960 1965 ...
 
Urbanization
Urbanization <ul><li>Increased demand for water for cities </li></ul><ul><li>Reallocation from irrigation to cities </li><...
55
 
 
Water and Energy
Power Connection in Uttar Pradesh India Rapidly increasing demand for electricity connection in the domestic sector
Water for Biofuels Water use per liter of biofuel production Litres of ET Litres of Irrigation water China 3800 2500 India...
Energy in Nepal Hydropower in Nepal: Potential:  42,000 MW, Actual: 700 MW
<ul><li>River basins closed –  Colorado, Murray Darling, Yellow, Indus, Amu Darya ……… no additional water left </li></ul><...
Water Scarcity 2000 1/3 of the world’s population live in basins that have to deal with water scarcity
MOST HUNGRY AND POOR PEOPLE LIVE WHERE WATER CHALLENGES POSE A CONSTRAINT TO FOOD PRODUCTION  Hunger Goal Indicator: Preva...
<ul><li>Will there be enough water to grow enough food, reduce poverty and support ecosystems? </li></ul><ul><li>No, unles...
WHAT OF THE FUTURE?
Per capita meat demand (kg/cap/yr) USA projections data 2003 1961 2050 China India 140 20 120 100 40 60 80 World Meat cons...
How much more cereals? Food demand doubles over the next 50 years because of diet and population growth Water Needs (ET) w...
Based on IWMI WaterSim analysis for the CA Without Water Productivity Gains,  crop consumption doubles by 2050  2050 Water...
Water Use – Today and 2050 Based on WaterSim analysis for the CA Today CA Scenario No Water Productivity Gains CA Scenario...
Climate Change Mitigation is about gases. Adaptation is about water.
<ul><li>Costs 1/3 rd  of growth potential </li></ul><ul><li>Occurs as prolonged dry spells, drought and floods </li></ul>U...
Water storage mitigates variability Source: World Bank But need to re-think water storage:  role of groundwater, and soil ...
Policy Agenda –  Where is there hope?
Consider A Range of Agricultural Water Management Options Fish, Livestock, Crops, Ecosystem Services
Address Drivers of Change <ul><ul><li>Our policies and actions outside the water sector;  </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>A...
Political Drivers <ul><ul><li>Regional stability and conflicts </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>International agreements </li></...
Productivity   United States China Latin America Sub-Saharan Africa Maize yield  (tons/hectare)
Increase Water Productivity <ul><li>Physical Water Productivity – more crop per drop </li></ul><ul><ul><li>To reduce futur...
Adapt yesterday’s irrigation  to tomorrow’s needs <ul><li>To reduce rural poverty </li></ul><ul><li>To improve performance...
<ul><li>Around 70% of the world’s under-nourished live in rural areas where non-agricultural livelihood options are limite...
Manage Externalities <ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Deal with negative impacts of water development  </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul...
Propositions <ul><li>Facilitate crafting of context specific adaptive policy and management responses.  </li></ul><ul><li>...
Thank You ! “ Anyone who can solve the problems of water will be worthy of two Nobel Prizes – one for peace and one for sc...
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Building resilience through better agricultural water management-DAVID MOLDEN

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Issues behind water and how to achieve water management

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  • Copyright Yann Arthus-Bertand Earth From Above (check website).
  • Building resilience through better agricultural water management-DAVID MOLDEN

    1. 1. David Molden International Water Management Institute Building Resilience Through Better Agricultural Water Management
    2. 2. Presentation <ul><li>Drivers of Water Use </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Agriculture, Population & Diets, urbanization, energy, politics, poverty, closing basins, water scarcity, climate change </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Future Water Needs </li></ul><ul><li>Adaptive Responses </li></ul><ul><li>Propositions </li></ul>
    3. 3. One liter of water produces one calorie on average Food Supply in Calories One liter of water produces one calorie on average
    4. 4. Will there be enough water? <ul><li>A question posed to 700 researchers and practitioners who put together the Comprehensive Assessment of Water Management in Agriculture. </li></ul>
    5. 5. Investing in Irrigation Irrigated Area Food price index World Bank lending for irrigation 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 320 280 240 200 160 120 80 40 0 Living Planet Index Freshwater Species
    6. 7. Urbanization
    7. 8. Urbanization <ul><li>Increased demand for water for cities </li></ul><ul><li>Reallocation from irrigation to cities </li></ul><ul><li>Cities generate more wastewater – an important source of agricultural supplies </li></ul><ul><li>Changes in dietary preferences – farmers respond to different demands </li></ul><ul><li>Voting dynamics shift </li></ul><ul><li>Cities offer jobs – competition for rural employment </li></ul>
    8. 9. 55
    9. 12. Water and Energy
    10. 13. Power Connection in Uttar Pradesh India Rapidly increasing demand for electricity connection in the domestic sector
    11. 14. Water for Biofuels Water use per liter of biofuel production Litres of ET Litres of Irrigation water China 3800 2500 India 4100 3500 US 1750 300 Brazil 2250 200
    12. 15. Energy in Nepal Hydropower in Nepal: Potential: 42,000 MW, Actual: 700 MW
    13. 16. <ul><li>River basins closed – Colorado, Murray Darling, Yellow, Indus, Amu Darya ……… no additional water left </li></ul><ul><li>Groundwater overdraft – in agricultural breadbaskets </li></ul><ul><li>Fisheries – ocean and freshwater at a limit, aquaculture will become more prevalent </li></ul><ul><li>Livestock – limit on extent of grazing land, more will come from mixed and industrialized production </li></ul>Limits – reached or breached
    14. 17. Water Scarcity 2000 1/3 of the world’s population live in basins that have to deal with water scarcity
    15. 18. MOST HUNGRY AND POOR PEOPLE LIVE WHERE WATER CHALLENGES POSE A CONSTRAINT TO FOOD PRODUCTION Hunger Goal Indicator: Prevalence of undernourished in developing countries, percentage 2001/2002 (UNstat, 2005) 840 million malnourished people remaining
    16. 19. <ul><li>Will there be enough water to grow enough food, reduce poverty and support ecosystems? </li></ul><ul><li>No, unless …. </li></ul><ul><li>We change the way we think and act on water issues. </li></ul>Answer from the Comprehensive Assessment –
    17. 20. WHAT OF THE FUTURE?
    18. 21. Per capita meat demand (kg/cap/yr) USA projections data 2003 1961 2050 China India 140 20 120 100 40 60 80 World Meat consumption kg/cap/yr
    19. 22. How much more cereals? Food demand doubles over the next 50 years because of diet and population growth Water Needs (ET) will double – without water productivity gains
    20. 23. Based on IWMI WaterSim analysis for the CA Without Water Productivity Gains, crop consumption doubles by 2050 2050 Water Use – Today and 2050 No Water Productivity Gains Today
    21. 24. Water Use – Today and 2050 Based on WaterSim analysis for the CA Today CA Scenario No Water Productivity Gains CA Scenario: Policies for productivity gains, upgrading rainfed, revitalized irrigation, trade 2050
    22. 25. Climate Change Mitigation is about gases. Adaptation is about water.
    23. 26. <ul><li>Costs 1/3 rd of growth potential </li></ul><ul><li>Occurs as prolonged dry spells, drought and floods </li></ul>Unmitigated rainfall and hydrological variability Source: World Bank, 2006. A Country Water Resources Assistance Strategy for Ethiopia
    24. 27. Water storage mitigates variability Source: World Bank But need to re-think water storage: role of groundwater, and soil moisture, insurance Days of storage capacity Water Storage Mitigates Climate Variability
    25. 28. Policy Agenda – Where is there hope?
    26. 29. Consider A Range of Agricultural Water Management Options Fish, Livestock, Crops, Ecosystem Services
    27. 30. Address Drivers of Change <ul><ul><li>Our policies and actions outside the water sector; </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Agriculture </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Trade </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Response to climate change </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Diets </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Energy/biofuels </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>have a profound impact on water resources. </li></ul></ul>Photos from Diet for a Small Planet
    28. 31. Political Drivers <ul><ul><li>Regional stability and conflicts </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>International agreements </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Corruption and transparency </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>International goals and objectives </li></ul></ul>Challenge: to develop solutions in the context of fragile states, countries in conflict, weak governance arrangements
    29. 32. Productivity United States China Latin America Sub-Saharan Africa Maize yield (tons/hectare)
    30. 33. Increase Water Productivity <ul><li>Physical Water Productivity – more crop per drop </li></ul><ul><ul><li>To reduce future water needs </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>For food production increases </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Economic Water Productivity – more value per drop </li></ul><ul><ul><li>For more income, growth </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Integrated, multiple use systems </li></ul></ul>
    31. 34. Adapt yesterday’s irrigation to tomorrow’s needs <ul><li>To reduce rural poverty </li></ul><ul><li>To improve performance of many systems, particularly in South Asia </li></ul><ul><li>To keep up with changing food demand </li></ul><ul><li>To adapt to changes – water scarcity, competition, climate change, energy </li></ul><ul><li>To increase multiple benefits and ecosystem services, while reducing negative impacts </li></ul>
    32. 35. <ul><li>Around 70% of the world’s under-nourished live in rural areas where non-agricultural livelihood options are limited. </li></ul>Get water to poor people, use it better Improve and Safeguard Water Access Access to Technologies
    33. 36. Manage Externalities <ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Deal with negative impacts of water development </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Ecosystem degradation </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Negative health impacts </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Inequitable benefits </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Loss of biodiversity </li></ul></ul></ul></ul>
    34. 37. Propositions <ul><li>Facilitate crafting of context specific adaptive policy and management responses. </li></ul><ul><li>Refocus on agricultural productivity, especially water productivity in light of scarcity. Share benefits. </li></ul><ul><li>Focus on access to water for the poor through technology and rights, in particular for women and marginalized groups. Upgrading rainfed agriculture has high potential. </li></ul><ul><li>Reinvent and revitalize irrigation in light of water scarcity and changing societal needs, with a focus on institutional and policy change. </li></ul><ul><li>Identify and manage externalities brought about by water resources development and management in doing the above. </li></ul>Considering local context, increasing demand & competition, complexity & integration, drivers of change, local politics
    35. 38. Thank You ! “ Anyone who can solve the problems of water will be worthy of two Nobel Prizes – one for peace and one for science” John F Kennedy

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